๐ฆ ๐ Seriously, how much vaccination is enough to reach herd immunity? How does the expected epidemic size depend on homophily in vaccine adoption?
๐ arxiv.org/abs/2112.07538.
1) We find that already a small level of homophily (h) can considerably increase the critical vaccine coverage (ฯแถแตฅ) required for herd immunity and that stronger homophily can push this threshold entirely out of reach.
2) Our framework is general enough to account for homophily by adherence to other epidemic interventions that reduce the susceptibility or infectiousness of individuals, such as #social_distancing practices, use of protective equipment, and adoption of digital #contact_tracing.
3) Vaccines' efficacy against susceptibility or transmitting the infection can vary. For perfect vacc, the epidemic size increases monotonically as a function of homophily, while for vacc with limited efficacy, the epidemic size is max. at an intermediate level of homophily.
๐ arxiv.org/abs/2112.07538.
1) We find that already a small level of homophily (h) can considerably increase the critical vaccine coverage (ฯแถแตฅ) required for herd immunity and that stronger homophily can push this threshold entirely out of reach.
2) Our framework is general enough to account for homophily by adherence to other epidemic interventions that reduce the susceptibility or infectiousness of individuals, such as #social_distancing practices, use of protective equipment, and adoption of digital #contact_tracing.
3) Vaccines' efficacy against susceptibility or transmitting the infection can vary. For perfect vacc, the epidemic size increases monotonically as a function of homophily, while for vacc with limited efficacy, the epidemic size is max. at an intermediate level of homophily.
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Contact Tracing on Networks with Cliques
๐ arxiv.org/abs/2304.10405
Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here, we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the next attempts. Our results illustrate how contract tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally tree-like.
๐งตCheck out this thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1649344692771778560.html
๐ arxiv.org/abs/2304.10405
Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here, we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the next attempts. Our results illustrate how contract tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally tree-like.
๐งตCheck out this thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1649344692771778560.html
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@abbas_k_rizi: #Contact_tracing can be a practical and effective way of containing disease spread. But did you know it's even more effective when social groups are involved? Check out our* new paper: arxiv.org/abs/2...โฆ