BTC has fallen only 50% from its ATH, and we are already seeing weekly publications claiming that Bitcoin is dead 🤣

This is a tradition of every bear cycle. If you had bought $100 worth of BTC every time you saw the media declare Bitcoin dead, you would have $29.2 million today.

📝 As a tradition, the author of FT articles has been talking about Bitcoin's death since 2015, when it was at $300, and recently published new piece called “Bitcoin is still about $70,000 too high”.

There is a cool website called “Bitcoin is Dead” where you can track all the claims from mass media, financial analysts, economists, and all kinds of famous people 💀

@Coin_Post

What Is Long Term Holder Realized Price 📊

The Long Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price is the average price at which long-term Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. It only includes coins that have not moved onchain for more than 155 days.

Because these holders transact infrequently, their cost basis tends to move slowly. That makes the LTH realized price a useful reference for where long-term conviction is concentrated.

🗓 Historically, during bear markets, price revisits the LTH realized price. In multiple cycles, this level acted as a zone where long-term holders absorbed supply.

In every prior Bitcoin bear market, the final bottom occurred after price fell roughly 15% below the LTH realized price (green line). That move coincided with maximum stress before accumulation resumed 🛒

There is no requirement for the same pattern to repeat this time. Market structure changes over time, and no level guarantees a reversal. However, if you think historical behavior remains relevant, a 15% drop below the current LTH realized price would place Bitcoin near $35k 📉

#FAQ

@Coin_Post

A 70,000,000% Return on a Domain Name 😐

In 1993, a 10-year-old kid in Malaysia bought ai. com domain for $100 using his mom’s credit card. She was pissed. He didn’t care. The letters matched his initials: Arsyan Ismail.

Thirty-two years later, he sold that same domain for $70 million!

💸 The buyer was Kris Marszalek, CEO of crypto. com. The deal quietly closed in April 2025, then stayed under wraps while the team built on it. It’s now the largest publicly known domain sale ever, and ai. com just debuted as a personal AI agent app during the Super Bowl.

In an interview, Arsyan’s advice after pulling off a 700,000x flip was simple: don’t over-negotiate with a billionaire. You might talk yourself out of the deal.

@Coin_Post

Wall Street’s biggest bank is invested in crypto 🏦

Goldman Sachs disclosed today about $2.36B in crypto exposure. Roughly $1.1B in BTC, $1B in ETH, $153M in XRP, and $108M in SOL.

🤏 That’s only about 0.33% of their portfolio. Small on purpose. Institutions never go all-in on day one. They start small, see what actually works, and only scale once the system proves it can handle real money.

@Coin_Post

BlackRock buys $UNI, but it still dumps 24.7% after the initial pump 😱

BlackRock is integrating its tokenized Treasury fund BUIDL with Uniswap via UniswapX and Securitize. They also disclosed a strategic investment that includes UNI. First known DeFi token on their balance sheet.

UNI pumped 40% on the headline. Then retraced almost the entire move in a few hours.

🤔 If your chart looks like this after the largest asset management company in the world buys your token, what’s left as a catalyst? Fee switch and their own chain are in the past...

Altcoins are truly doomed, the only remaining use case is musical chairs with high volatility, where people get wiped out on perps all year long 📉

What's more interesting is that BlackRock is obviously preparing for creation of borrowable onchain collateral in the form of tokenized stocks and ETFs, to enable leverage loops and all kinds of financial engineering 🤔

@Coin_Post

What Is the World Uncertainty Index 👀

The World Uncertainty Index measures how frequently uncertainty-related terms appear in country economic reports. It is calculated by scanning Economist Intelligence Unit reports and counting references to uncertainty, then standardizing the data across countries and time.

🌍 The index is GDP-weighted and published quarterly. That means larger economies influence the reading more than smaller ones. The goal is to capture macro-level policy, economic, and geopolitical uncertainty rather than market volatility alone.

Spikes in the index historically align with major global shocks. It surged around 9/11, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and again during Covid.

📈 Right now, the index has reached an all-time high. That indicates an unusually elevated level of global macro uncertainty.

This does not predict market direction. It measures the intensity of uncertainty embedded in global economic reporting

#FAQ

@Coin_Post

How P/E Ratio Affects Your Future Returns in Equities 📊

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) measures how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It is calculated as price divided by earnings per share. If a stock trades at $100 and earns $5 per share, its P/E is 20.

🔍 For the S&P 500, the same logic applies at the index level. The trailing P/E uses earnings from the last 12 months. The forward P/E uses expected earnings over the next 12 months, based on analyst estimates. Forward P/E reflects what investors are willing to pay today for projected profits.

Historically, valuation has had a strong relationship with long-term returns. When investors buy the S&P 500 at low forward P/E levels, subsequent 10-year annualized returns have tended to be high. When they buy at high forward P/E levels, long-term returns have been much lower, sometimes negative.

🗓 The historical data show a clear negative relationship between forward P/E and future 10-year returns. At a forward P/E around 22, which is roughly where the S&P 500 trades today, past observations imply average annual returns near 2% over the next decade.

That level of return is barely above zero in real terms and can fall below inflation depending on the macro backdrop. High starting valuations compress the probability of strong long-term outcomes because more future growth is already priced in.

🧠 Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can deviate from historical patterns for extended periods. BUT, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

#FAQ

Netherlands Passes 36% Tax on Unrealized Gains 🇳🇱

The Dutch House has approved legislation that will tax investors 36% on annual gains, even if they never sell the asset. Not on realized profits. On paper gains.

Starting January 1, 2028, the Netherlands will tax any annual return. Each calendar year, the tax authority compares the value of your assets on January 1 and December 31. Any increase in value is treated as taxable income, even if you didn’t sell. You then owe about 36% on that paper gain when filing your tax return the following year 🗓

It's a cartoonishly evil fiscal policy and the deliberate nail in the coffin of an already decaying system:

🤔 Take a simple example. You invest $10,000 in a super stock market and it compounds at 15% per year for 30 years without going down (dream scenario). In a normal system where gains are taxed only when realized, that grows to about $662,000. Now apply a 36% tax on gains at the end of every year. Your effective growth rate drops to roughly 9.6%. After 30 years, you end up with around $157,000. More than half a million dollars erased.

🤔 Now a more realistic scenario. You invest $100,000 into a biggest Dutch company: ASML. It doubles in a year. You now have $100,000 in paper gains. The government wants $36,000. You either sell part of your position or pay from your own cash.

Let's say you are diamond hands holder and pay the tax from your pocket. Next year the ASML stock drops 40%. Your $200,000 becomes $120,000. You started with $100,000 and already paid $36,000 in tax. Despite the stock still being above your entry, you are effectively down $16,000 without selling a single share.

😠 Why do people invest? Because if they leave money in the bank, inflation destroys it. Inflation punishes saving. But, an unrealized gains tax punishes investing. So the system punishes people for saving instead of spending, and also punishes them for investing. That’s how you suffocate capital formation.

@Coin_Post

In the last 8 trading days, at least 115 S&P 500 stocks have dropped 7% or more in a single session.

🤔 And yet the SPX is still sitting just 2.6% below its all-time high.

📆 The last time we saw this kind of internal damage while the index was still near the highs was late in the dot-com bubble. Breadth weakened first. The index held up. Then it didn’t.

Historically, when this breadth threshold was triggered, the average maximum drawdown that followed was around -34%.

🔍 The reason the index looks calm today is concentration. In 2000, the top 10 stocks made up about 26% of the S&P 500. Today they are closer to 37%. A small group of mega-cap names can offset widespread weakness underneath.

I can't say things like, "we will crash just like that time," because back in 2000, that concentration was built on unprofitable growth stories and extreme speculation. Today’s leaders are highly profitable, cash-generative, and structurally dominant businesses 💸

@Coin_Post

Polymarket launched 5-minute prediction markets 🎰

Just so we’re clear, your chances of making money in this kind of short-term binary game are worse than roulette.

🎰 At least at a casino you don’t pretend you can “read” the wheel. Here people stare at a 1-second chart and convince themselves they can predict short-term price movements. In fact, the chart makes chances of most traders here even lower than 50% because of their psychology and same reasons why most retail traders fail.

I’ve already seen tweets saying you only need to be right 17 times in a row to turn $10 into a million. Let’s run it:

🧮 If each bet is basically 50/50, then:

P = (0.5)^17
P = 1 / 131,072
P ≈ 0.0000076%

So you’d need about 131,000 attempts on average to expect one 17-win streak.

Don't gamble 🙅‍♂️

@Coin_Post

What Is the Hindenburg Indicator 📊

The Hindenburg Omen is a market breadth divergence signal. It triggers when a large number of stocks are making new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows at the same time while the overall index is still elevated. That combination means the index looks strong, but many stocks are already breaking down.

Normally, when the market is strong, most stocks move in the same direction. You see many new highs and very few new lows. When both start increasing together, it shows conflict inside the market.

📊 That internal split matters because cap-weighted indices can stay near highs even if a large portion of stocks are weakening. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming the standard S&P 500 this year by the largest margin since 1992. That tells you large caps like Nvidia or Apple are not carrying the market the way they usually do.

Look at the chart. Over the last 9 years, Hindenburg signals have appeared near major local peaks with a very high hit rate. The red dots cluster before bear markets.

🚨 Recently, several new signals have triggered again. This does not guarantee a crash, BUT, it means internal conditions resemble prior periods that preceded weakness.

To me, this is one of many factors indicating an upcoming correction and supporting my bearish bias.

#FAQ

@Coin_Post

Man, Economy and State: what can we learn from this book 📕

Author is Murray Rothbard who was an American economist from the Austrian school and who rebuilt economics from the ground up. He starts with a simple point that people act to improve their situation, then builds out to explain prices, wages, interest, money, booms, and what government policies do to all of it.

🤔 He looks at what people actually do after a rule changes. Not what politicians promise, not what the first week looks like, but what unfolds once everyone adjusts their behavior. Most of the damage or benefit shows up later, in the reactions.

Five simple lessons 👇

1️⃣Rent caps sold as protection lead to fewer new apartments, weaker maintenance, and tenants clinging to controlled units because moving means losing a subsidy (just look at Stockholm or NYC). Forced affordability tightens supply and makes the market more rigid over time.

2️⃣Price freezes during crises do not increase availability. They empty shelves, create long lines, and shift access toward those with connections. The visible price stays put while the real cost moves into waiting and uncertainty.

3️⃣Printing money to fund spending does not raise all prices at once. The first sectors touched by new money benefit while wages and everyday goods adjust later, leaving ordinary households to absorb higher living costs without having shared in the early gains.

4️⃣Student loan programs that make credit easy push tuition higher, because universities know students can borrow more and adjust prices accordingly.

5️⃣When healthcare is free at the point of use, demand keeps rising while supply stays limited, and the pressure shows up as months long waiting lists for surgeries and specialist visits (UK and Canada are well-known examples).

@Coin_Post

HyENA Red Packet Campaign: Free USDe 💸

HyENA, a perpetual futures DEX built on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, is running a 14-day Lunar New Year campaign from February 14 to February 28. During this period, users can claim USDe “Red Packets” distributed in three timed windows per day.

🧧 Each packet is randomized between 0.8 and 888 USDe. In practice, most claims will be around the minimum 0.8 USDe, but you can claim up to 2 per day per wallet, with one per window.

To be eligible for a daily drop, you must meet at least one of the following conditions:

🟢Keep a position worth >$100 open for more than 1 hour

🟢Trade more than $10,000 in volume

🟢Maintain more than $5,000 USDe as margin

The cheapest way to qualify is the first one.

Go to HyENA app, deposit around $30-50, open a low leveraged BTC position, hedge it, keep it open and you’re eligible 💰

And hey, don't forget you can use as many wallets as you wish 😉

@Coin_Post

It's better to own stock in good companies than to trade it 🔍

I have a simple belief. If you invest in a blue chip index, such as the SPX, or hold stock in great companies, you shouldn't micromanage your positions. Instead, you should hold onto them and buy more whenever the price drops significantly.

Let’s say you’re a guy from NYC who is bullish on Palantir and wants to invest in this company for long-term gain. You buy $10k worth of stock at $50. You think it will rise long-term but right now it's overbought so you sell 11 months later at $200 timing the top. $10k turns into $40k. On paper, that’s a 300% gain and a $30k profit.

Because you held less than a year, it’s short-term tax. Federal 24%, NY State ~6.85%, NYC ~3.87%. Roughly 34.7% combined. On a $30k gain, that’s about $10,418 in taxes. Your real profit is about $19,582, not $30k 🧮

Now assume the stock drops to $130 and you reinvest the full $29,582. At $130 per share, that buys you about 227.5 shares. You originally had 200 shares. After a perfect 300% run, paying taxes, and buying back after a crazy 35% drop, you end up with roughly 13.8% more shares.

🤔 Think about the risk-reward here. The odds of perfectly selling the top and perfectly buying back lower are already tiny. But even if you somehow execute it flawlessly and go all-in at ideal prices, the upside is just 14% more shares. You’re taking massive timing and execution risk for a pretty modest edge.

Simply own good companies and indexes. Don't try to trade them ❗️

@Coin_Post

Back in November I wrote that it was a handful of AI megacaps dragging the whole S&P 500 index higher. That story is shifting 😮

Megacaps used to command premium multiples because they were asset-light and didn’t need massive reinvestment. Now Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google are spending hundreds of billions on data centers to stay competitive in AI. That’s capital intensity closer to manufacturing than software.

Those four names are about 20% of the S&P 500. They’ve already fallen 10–15% in a few weeks as markets digest how to price this infinite capital expenditure with unclear ROI. If returns compress, they won't trade like high-margin software businesses 📉

Market sees two outcomes: Either AI was overhyped and this spending wave was a misallocation that forces lower multiples and drags indexes down. Or AI truly disrupts everything, from software to white-collar jobs, triggering deflationary pressure and recession. That’s not bullish for equities either.

And the data reflects this. Right now, the S&P 500 is having its worst relative year vs All Country World Index ex-US since 1995. Meanwhile, the equal-weight S&P 500 is outperforming the cap-weighted index by the widest margin since 1976.

📈 That means the average stock is holding up better than the giants I listed above. When leadership weakens and leadership is >20% of the index, it goes down.

@Coin_Post