🇹🇼 Elections will take place in Taiwan today

In the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the damage to the global economy will be, according to Bloomberg, $10 trillion, which corresponds to 10% of global GDP. And Taiwan's economy will simply be destroyed.

In the coming days, the world's media feeds will be filled with this event. So here are “the main things you need to know”;)

– The elections will take place on Jan 13, but the counting of votes will take at least several days. Often on the island this process is delayed.

– The 2nd round is a traditionally ephemeral phenomenon in the case of Taipei)

– “The victory of the DPP candidate” does not equal “a violent reaction from Beijing” (especially in a military sense). This is version for the Western media

– Parliamentary elections will be held in parallel with the presidential elections

– Most likely a coalition will be formed from the People’s Party and the Kuomintang. Otherwise, everything will be much worse. A victory for the DPP also in parliament could quickly escalate the situation.

– The visit of the US delegation indirectly confirms the victory of the DPP

– Candidates: Lai Ching-te (DPP, current VP), Hou Yu (Mayor of Taipei, Kuomintang) and Ko Wenzhe (former Mayor of Taipei, People's Party)

– For the 1st time all 3 candidates come with a rating of 30-33%

– “Undemocratic democracy”: this could be the first time the DPP has a third term in a row

– Beijing is unlikely to get its hands dirty, but provocations are very likely

– Fraud and vote cheating are possible, the US will do everything to create a source of tension

– The inauguration will take place in May. By this time, the primaries in US and during the same period in China there will be "2 sessions” - the NPC and the legislative CPPCC - with problems in the economy there will be new personnel decisions. There won't be a blockade of the island until March.

So, if “everything as planned,” the movement will begin, as we discussed, no earlier than the fall.