QCP Asia Colour – 4 February 25

Crypto remains on a rollercoaster, with BTC briefly reclaiming $100k after news of a one-month delay to U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, hinting at potential trade mediation. However, relief was short-lived as China retaliated with new tariffs, sending BTC back to $98k.

China also launched an antitrust investigation into Google, signaling a readiness to escalate tensions by targeting major U.S. tech firms. Any resulting sanctions or restrictions could weigh on earnings, posing a key risk to risk-on assets.

Amid BTC’s climb to $100k last night, markets also reacted to Trump’s executive order directing officials to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. While some see this as a potential source of fresh Bitcoin demand, details remain unclear—particularly regarding how it would be funded.

What’s next for crypto? Trade uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook, with options markets now evenly balanced between puts and calls through March. However, volatility could resurface with White House crypto chief David Sacks set to hold a press conference outlining the new administration’s crypto strategy and Trump’s call with President Xi today.

QCP Asia Colour – 5 February 25

TradFi markets continue to chop as participants digest developments from the U.S. and anticipate the next move in this high-stakes tariff war.

U.S. equity markets have lost momentum, with the S&P500 struggling to stay above the key 6,000 level. The volatility of the past week triggered a flush in the crypto space with BTC briefly touching $92k and ETH collapsing to $2,100.

The delay in tariffs against Mexico and Canada has provided some relief to crypto markets. However, the U.S.-China tariff war remains front and center. There is a glimmer of hope that an amicable resolution may emerge from the upcoming call between Trump and Xi Jinping.

Meanwhile, yesterday's conference by Crypto Czar David Sacks disappointed the broader market. A task force has been set up to draft clearer regulations, starting with stablecoin legislation. Additionally, a working group has been formed to evaluate the feasibility of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). While this initiative may take time, we view it as a long-term positive for crypto.

BTC's resilience above $90k is impressive, but we remain cautious about negative geopolitical shocks from U.S.-China tensions, particularly amid global market uncertainty. Furthermore, the lack of near-term crypto-specific catalysts leaves the market vulnerable to negative price shocks. In this environment, a defensive approach and risk management are key, especially given the large liquidations observed on Monday.

QCP Asia Colour – 7 February 25

Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $99K resistance level last night, triggering a broad selloff in the market and pushing BTC back to a new daily low of $95.6K. With a three-day losing streak, the outlook for crypto remains uncertain.

The key event last night was the listing of $BERA on Binance, which saw the token rally to a high of $15.50 before stabilizing around $7.60 this morning. The rally drew liquidity away from other altcoins, contributing to last night’s selloff.

Meanwhile, in the latest update on Trump’s efforts to deregulate crypto, the SEC is reportedly downsizing its crypto enforcement unit. This move is expected to facilitate the establishment of a new crypto task force and foster a more constructive relationship between the SEC and the industry.

Additionally, the FDIC is reviewing its bank guidelines to potentially allow U.S. banks to engage in certain crypto activities — such as custody services and "tokenized deposits" — without requiring prior regulatory approval.

As we head into tonight’s non-farm payroll report, market sentiment remains cautious. The desk continues to observe interest in BTC 28FEB25 80K puts and BTC 21FEB25 90K puts, reflecting persistent caution despite the skew still favoring calls.

QCP Asia Colour – 10 February 25

This Monday continues to set the week's tone—following DeepSeek’s move two weeks ago and last week’s tariff-driven volatility. This time, Trump’s announcement of a 25% levy on steel and aluminum briefly unsettled markets ahead of Powell’s testimony and CPI data.

With Mexico and Canada among the top three U.S. suppliers, the tariffs cast doubt on last week’s temporary delay and could reignite trade tensions. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s remarks on potential sanctions against Japan—a key U.S. ally—follow the White House’s move to block Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel.

Commodities were largely unchanged, while Asian equities dipped, and BTC briefly dropped to $95K before rebounding—suggesting a sentiment-driven move rather than a fundamental shift in risk appetite. BTC volatility now skews in favor of puts until April, reflecting a lack of upside catalysts.

A feedback loop is emerging—President Trump, highly sensitive to market reactions, is facing a market increasingly calling his bluff. This could embolden him further, adding another layer of volatility.

QCP Asia Colour – 12 February 25

Boringggg! That's how markets have been for the past two weeks. Despite the back-and-forth tariff action between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—along with the imposition of tariffs on China and U.S. steel and aluminum imports—traditional finance (TradFi) markets have been unable to find a clear direction.

Across multiple metrics, we see no signs of panic on Wall Street. Credit yields remain at cycle lows, and credit spreads between investment-grade and junk bonds have not widened. The VIX appears anchored at 16, suggesting market participants have already bought protection against any further negative news.

Powell's testimony before the Senate reinforced the Fed's stance of adopting a "wait-and-see" approach to rate cuts, alluding to a potentially slower pace of cuts in 2025. Yet, despite this hawkish tone, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to rally.

Referencing CFTC data, we infer that the market is heavily long on the dollar. Interest rate differentials also suggest that the USD is overvalued relative to other currencies, which could explain why DXY has struggled to gain traction. Given that negative news has likely been priced in, we believe USD now faces greater downside risk. Any positive news could force USD longs to unwind their positions en masse, potentially sending risk assets higher. Tonight’s CPI release could be the catalyst that triggers a sharp move lower in DXY.

However, this rising tide may not lift all boats. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform equities and gold, suggesting some hesitation within the crypto community. Liquidity remains thin across the numerous new listings each week, and last week’s large-scale liquidation wiped out many traders.

For participants still holding long positions in crypto, following institutional flows and purchasing downside protection may be the best strategy—especially since put options remain relatively cheap for now.

QCP Asia Colour – 13 February 25

“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets!” Buying the dip was the winning trade overnight following the post-CPI flush. Headline CPI came in hotter than expected, while core CPI was also slightly higher. This shifted market expectations, with the Fed now expected to delay its first rate cut of the year until December, triggering a bloodbath.

BTC plummeted from $96.5K to $94K, with $163 million in long positions liquidated. However, BTC managed to find its footing at $94K and subsequently made an impressive rally to $98K during the New York session, netting a 4.4% gain.

On the options front, skew continues to favor calls, with the front-end dominating most of the flows, especially for this Friday's expiry (February 14). Calls with strike prices between $97K and $100K have been the most popular in the last 24 hours.

Looking at the bigger picture, the market is likely waiting for Trump’s reaction to the higher CPI print. Will he continue to argue that the Fed should cut rates further this year, or will he give them the leeway to remain data-dependent? With his soft-landing legacy at stake, we expect Fed Chair Powell to remain conservative and maintain his stance of being data-dependent before moving to cut rates.

QCP Asia Colour – 17 February 25

As the market continues to trade sideways, BTC dominance has risen to approximately 60%, nearing 4-year highs as ETH and other altcoins continue to underperform. This past weekend's $LIBRA's "rug pull" scandal involving Argentinian President Javier Milei, does not bode well for similar projects or for those anticipating an altcoin/memecoin season.

With BTC comfortably back in the middle of the range, implied vols continue to drift lower which comes as no surprise given that 7d realized vol has dipped to 36v. With no significant crypto-specific catalysts in sight, price action appears to be more macro driven particularly as the correlation between BTC and equities remains largely intact.

However it is interesting to note that despite the macro uncertainties (tariffs, debt ceiling, inflation etc) and the unpredictability of Trump, crypto implied vols and VIX are still trading at their lows. BTC has proven to be relatively unfazed by the recent macro data and OI has not recovered significantly after the January month-end expiry. This suggests that the crypto options market is just waiting on the sidelines for concrete policy changes rather than just pro-crypto rhetoric.

The market remains undecided on whether it is worth paying for decay even with vols at these levels, which are reminiscent of Q2-Q3 last year when BTC struggled to break out of its multi-month range. Instead, most of the flows have been near dated vol selling or trying to trade the range rather than positioning for a big breakout.

QCP Asia Colour – 18 February 25

In options, the term structure is developing a notable kink around March expiry, particularly in ETH, likely reflecting positioning ahead of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade - currently in testing and expected to go live at the beginning of April.

Looking at past upgrades, The Merge (Sep 2022) followed a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH rallied over 100% from its June lows before selling off post-event. In contrast, Shanghai (April 2023), which enabled staking withdrawals, was met with pessimism as markets feared excess supply. However, once selling pressure failed to materialize, ETH climbed 30% in the following months.

Traders may be positioning for another volatility event as the narrative gains traction, with vols skewed in favor of calls from March 28 onward—potentially setting the stage for the next positioning theme as crypto markets remain sidelined post-Trump’s tariff debacle.

One counterforce is the broader weakness in alts—LIBRA’s collapse, SOL and ETH retracing to pre-election levels, and BTC dominance hovering near all-time highs. Beyond market catalysts, a sustained altcoin recovery may require tangible progress in real-world adoption and network development rather than just speculative flows.

QCP Asia Colour – 19 February 25

Inflation fears remain top of mind as tariff tensions escalate. So far, the only confirmed hit—a 10% tariff on select Chinese goods—is in effect. The proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could be avoided if a consensus is reached, while the planned steel and aluminum tariff hike from 10% to 25% is set to take effect on March 12. Markets, however, have largely priced in these risks. Despite ongoing uncertainty, equities continue to climb, while VIX term structure remains flat. The current pain trade? A slow grind in sideways markets, keeping volatility sellers in control while long-vol positions struggle to generate returns.

Crypto remains under pressure, with Solana bracing for impact ahead of a 30M token unlock on March 1. Hedging flows tied to FTX-related SOL are weighing on BTC and ETH, contributing to broader weakness. Meanwhile, Argentina’s latest meme coin frenzy, $LIBRA, saw a staggering $4 billion surge following the president's endorsement before crashing 89%, leaving thousands of investors with significant losses.

Additionally, Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) did not purchase any Bitcoin last week, marking the second time that its holdings remained unchanged at 478,740 BTC. However, the company plans to strengthen its Bitcoin position through a private offering of $2 billion in convertible senior notes. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin remains resilient around the $95k level after dipping towards $93k, but struggling to break higher amid a lack of catalysts in the short term.

QCP Asia Colour – 20 February 25

President Trump announced "25% or higher" tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, though no specific timeline has been provided. However, companies can avoid these by relocating operations to the U.S. The POTUS highlighted concerns over the unfair treatment of U.S. automobile exports, unveiling levies on automobiles set to take effect on April 2nd.

Meanwhile, the AI competition between China and US has once again taken center stage. DeepSeek is exploring external fundraising, attracting interest from major players such as Chinese giant Alibaba and state-backed funds like China Investment Corporation and the National Social Security Fund. Institutional capital injections into DeepSeek could potentially accelerate the competitive threat to U.S. AI giants, further pressuring valuations in the sector.

In the crypto space, altcoins have garnered significant interest since Trump took office, with several altcoin-linked ETF applications submitted to the SEC, including one for XRP. Notably, Brazilian regulators have approved the world's first Spot XRP ETF. Could this act as a catalyst for Trump's ambition to position the U.S. as the global crypto hub, paving way for further ETF approvals in 2025?

On the options front, there has been strong demand for Feb to Apr high delta BTC calls, likely driven by short-term bullish sentiment following Trump's statements and speculation around a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Additionally, 25 Delta implied volatility has flipped to skew in favor of calls across all tenors, signaling market positioning for a second leg in the bull run. With inflationary fears easing, the S&P500 reaching new highs, and DXY retracing back to 107 levels, the macro backdrop appears increasingly supportive of risk assets.

QCP Asia Colour – 24 February 25

It has only been two days since the Bybit hack, in which approximately $1.4b worth of ETH was stolen, yet crypto prices and implied vols have barely reacted. The price action underscores the growing maturity of the crypto landscape since the FTX collapse in 2022, particularly in the crypto credit market.

Bybit's ability to swiftly secure a bridge loan to cover the liquidity gap during a critical period highlights the resilience of the lending space and the ample liquidity available. This sector has steadily recovered since 2022 and experienced a significant spike ahead of last year's U.S. Presidential election.

Every facet of crypto—from custodial and security solutions to corporate governance and transparency—has strengthened with each past crisis. In fact, Bybit's ability to withstand over $6b in withdrawals following the largest crypto heist to date could be seen as a mark of confidence rather than a setback for the exchange.

What's next for ETH?
With Bybit’s buying over the weekend, ETH has held up well—but now that the liquidity gap is closed, risk reversals suggest fears of further downside into March. Meanwhile, the hacker—allegedly North Korea-backed Lazarus Group—now holds 0.42% of ETH supply, making them the 14th largest ETH holder.

Will they sell? And what does this mean for ETH going forward?

Read the full analysis here.

QCP Asia Colour – 25 February 25

BTC finally broke out of its range, dipping below 90k for the first time in a month and now hovering just below that level, triggering over USD 200mm in liquidations over the past few hours.

Market sentiment remains under pressure following Trump’s decision to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and curb Chinese investment. Front-end gamma was covering as BTC broke lower, with 1M IV now back around 50v, while skews interestingly remain largely unchanged.

Zooming out, equities, fixed income, and gold have largely shrugged off the data points previously blamed for broader market weakness, with BTC remaining flat. Rising BTC dominance and sliding altcoin prices suggest that alt bulls may already be fully long, with any new dollar inflows going exclusively into BTC.

We remain cautious. Recent BTC demand has been driven primarily by institutions like MicroStrategy financed through equity-linked note issuances. With crypto-related issuance accounting for roughly 19% of total issuance over the last 14 months, the market for such financing may be nearing saturation — potentially dampening institutional demand if spot continues to stay muted.

QCP Asia Colour - 26 February 25

A global risk-off move has sent equities, gold, and BTC lower, with whispers of stagflation gaining traction on the street. Soft data suggests tariffs are already weighing on consumer sentiment, as reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index miss (98 vs. 103 expected). Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated across consumer surveys.

While it’s too early to confirm a stagflationary trajectory, the market’s reaction to recent developments signals growing unease.

The U.S. administration’s confirmation of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports (effective March 3) has further dampened sentiment. With expectations of tougher actions against China, investors are reducing risk exposure amid heightened uncertainty. The government is proving it’s not just bark but bite, adding to market jitters.

We see limited marginal buyers for risk assets in this environment, increasing the likelihood of further downside as crowded trades unwind. The “Magnificent 7” trade, a standout in 2024, is unraveling, with only META and NFLX positive YTD. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey confirms that “Long Magnificent 7” remains the most crowded trade, with "Long USD" and "Long Crypto" coming in second and third respectively.

Unsurprisingly, long USD positioning is starting to reverse, with the recent collapse forcing traders to trim exposure.

BTC continues to trade in line with risk assets, and ETF outflows confirm a lack of conviction. In volatile markets, crypto remains the first asset to be liquidated as traders rush to reduce exposure.

Key Near-Term Events: NVDA Earnings & PCE Data
• NVDA reports earnings tonight post-market, a key event given its AI-driven chip demand exposure. A miss or cautious guidance could trigger another leg down for risk assets.
• Friday’s PCE print (YoY expected at 2.5%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Until clearer signs emerge that inflation is heading toward 2%, the Fed is likely to maintain rates at current levels. Markets now price two cuts in 2025, with the first in June or July.

In the coming weeks, consumer and retail sentiment surveys will be key. These indicators often lead actual economic data and could provide early stagflation warning signs.

Stay cautious—markets remain fragile.

QCP Asia Colour - 3 March 25

After a whirlwind week, we've come full circle — back where we started last Monday. Over the weekend, Trump announced the formation of a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve. While some believed this move was largely priced-in, others saw it as the only catalyst strong enough to propel crypto to new all-time highs — albeit later in the year. Instead, Trump used this lifeline early, pulling BTC back above $90k during low liquidity hours on Sunday.

For a president who thrives on being the market's hero, last week's risk asset performance was anything but inspiring. His slew of new tariffs and shakier than expected Ukraine-Russia peace talks rattled investor confidence. So, while the timing of the SBR was somewhat unexpected, the political calculus was clear — Trump needed a win before his approval ratings starts slipping, a metric he likely takes very personally.

Following last night's clutch announcement, it's likely that Trump will do whatever it takes to avoid presiding over a prolonged stock market drawdown, a topic he previously championed but struggled with in recent weeks.

Are We Back in the Game?
With the encouraging recovery in risk assets, are we back in the game? Not quite. BTC is still trading near the bottom of its multi-month range and frontend crypto vols are still relatively elevated with both majors still reflecting a Put Skew till end-March. The VIX is also elevated, signaling broader market unease in risk assets overall, particularly after the recent tariff escalations from the U.S. administration.

Just when we think Trump has exhausted his cards, he may still have more surprises up his sleeve.

Which key events could shape the market this week — and could they be the catalyst for that elusive all-time high?

Read the full analysis here.

QCP Asia Colour - 4 March 25

The brief crypto rally following Trump’s Truth Social announcement on Sunday was swiftly erased, with risk assets broadly retreating and wiping out most of Sunday’s gains. This sell-off was exacerbated by Trump’s renewed push for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, reinforcing investor concerns over escalating trade tensions.

The surprise inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA tokens in the reserve has divided the crypto community, with the initial euphoria over the project’s merits giving way to deeper scrutiny. Questions are now emerging about potential contradictions with DOGE’s cost-cutting measures, as well as the opaque source of funding for this reserve accumulation.

This downturn could intensify pressure on Trump, especially after the strong support and donations he received from the crypto community during his campaign. Even the SEC’s latest move — pausing and dismissing enforcement cases against crypto firms — failed to stem the sell-off, underscoring broader risk aversion in the market.

After a month of subdued cross-asset volatility, market anxiety has resurfaced with the prospect of tit-for-tat tariffs dampening global growth sentiment. This shift is evident in the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 50 bps over the past two weeks, the VIX surging past 22, and BTC front-end vols repricing sharply — up 8 points since the weekend, with skew shifting significantly toward puts.

QCP Asia Colour - 5 March 25

This week's crypto markets have been nothing short of a roller coaster, with volatility surging in response to shifting macro narratives. The latest catalysts? Trump’s reserve plan, confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and swift retaliatory measures from Canada and China — all adding fuel to an already uncertain landscape. Bitcoin soared to $94K before tumbling $83K, now stabilizing around $88K in a choppy trade.

Amidst this, the U.S. Commerce Secretary hinted at a partial tariff rollback, potentially set to be announced after Trump’s State of the Union address. With macro conditions in flux, crypto remains tightly linked to equities, with price action reflecting broader economic shifts.

This Friday marks a historic milestone—the first-ever White House Crypto Summit. However, without any concrete executive orders, funding commitments, or congressional backing in place, the market remains in wait-and-see mode. Investors view this as an asymmetric event with high stakes. Will it serve as the unexpected catalyst that sends prices soaring, or will it expose crypto’s fragility and trigger a deeper sell-off?

Lens out. Corporate bond spreads are widening, with high-yield spreads now sitting at 290 bps above Treasuries, while the investment-grade vs. high-yield spread stands at 200 bps. While this isn't signaling panic, it's a trend worth monitoring closely.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast turned negative at -2.8% just two days ago, fueling concerns over stagflation. Markets are now laser-focused on key economic data releases: The NFP report this Friday and CPI release next Wednesday. These will be crucial in shaping market direction and providing much-needed clarity on the macro outlook.

QCP Asia Colour - 7 March 25

The market had been eagerly anticipating tonight's White House Crypto Summit, but Trump preempted expectations by signing the Executive Order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. While this was widely expected to be bullish for BTC, the market, in typical "sell the news" fashion, saw BTC plummet from $90k to $85k upon the signing.

The timing of the signing definitely caught many off guard, especially those who had positioned for a more bullish outcome at tonight's summit. Vols sold off hard and risk reversals flipped back in favor of Puts as topside positioning for front dates were quickly taken off the table.

The knee-jerk reaction lower likely stems from the realization that no actual budget has been allocated for BTC purchases in the near term. Instead, the Reserve will initially be capitalized using BTC already held by the U.S. government, primarily those forfeited through criminal or civil asset forfeitures. However, this does not preclude future BTC accumulation. The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional BTC, provided they incur no incremental costs to taxpayers.

While this wasn't the outright bullish catalyst many were hoping for, it remains structurally positive for crypto. The prospect of random Silkroad BTC sales disrupting the market is now behind us, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term crypto strategy has been reaffirmed.

With the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement now out of the way, expectations for tonight's White House Crypto Summit have been tempered. Instead, the focus will be on tonight's NFP. Given how fragile equities are looking, any surprises in the data could spark volatility across risk assets — including crypto.

QCP Asia Colour - 10 March 25

Friday's NFP data provided some relief for equities and crypto, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts in May. With BTC consolidating around $86k for most of Saturday, the stage seemed set for a steady recovery this week. However this momentum was derailed by the Bybit hackers cashing out at least $300m of their record-breaking $1.5bn crypto heist during thin liquidity hours on Sunday causing BTC and ETH to test key support levels once again.

Today's price selloff may also be exacerbated by holders preemptively front-running further hacker-driven supply, now that the hackers have shown willingness to cash out rather than risk further losses — having already seen their stolen assets depreciate by 25%. In response, risk reversals have become even more bid for Puts over the past 24 hours, reflecting growing concerns over additional selling pressure.

While $80k remains a key support for BTC in the near term, the topside also appears capped, with the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve narrative largely priced in. Recent options flows indicate a more constructive bullish outlook emerging only from Q3 onwards.

Until crypto finds a new narrative, we're likely to see an increased correlation between BTC and equities in the near term. Both risk assets are currently trading near their recent lows, and with tariff risks still looming, volatility could pick up heading into key U.S. macro data releases — CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu).

QCP Asia Colour - 11 March 25

Is America’s exceptionalism fading?

The post-election optimism following Trump’s victory has swiftly reversed course, as US stock market extended its downward spiral. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 2.7% and 3.8%, respectively. The Magnificent 7 lost over $830 billion, marking the largest single-day loss in history for these names.

Bearish sentiment is now in full swing, with US equities put option volumes surging to their highest level since 2020. The latest catalyst? Trump’s weekend interview with Fox, where he appeared indifferent to recession risks. Despite his reputation as the "stock market president," he suggested that a downturn might be necessary to "fix" America.

In crypto, Bitcoin once again acted as the pressure valve and a key leading indicator for risk assets. BTC briefly broke below $80k as the market rushed for put protection. However, early Asia trading today revealed unexpected demand for longer-tenor topside calls, potentially signaling positioning for a swift rebound from the $75k support level seen pre-election.

Despite the market turmoil, not all signals are bearish. This wave of risk-off sentiment has driven 10-year Treasury yields down by around 60 bps and weakened the US dollar — a historically positive factor for USD-denominated risk assets like US equities and crypto.

Lower yields also provide a reprieve for the US government, easing borrowing costs at a time when refinancing needs are massive. This comes at a critical moment as Trump's policy roadmap, particularly proposed tax cuts and a more expansionary fiscal stance, takes shape.

QCP Asia Colour - 12 March 25

Markets are on edge as trade tensions flare up once again, with new tariffs expected on April 2. Fresh 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports took effect today, prompting swift retaliation from the EU, which plans to impose €26bn (£22bn) in countermeasures starting next month.

Volatility is spiking. The VIX hit 28 before settling at 26.6, though the Cboe VIX term structure flipping into backwardation hints at a potential market floor. Meanwhile, tonight’s CPI print could set the tone for rate expectations, as markets now price in four Fed cuts this year, up from just one in January. Will inflation data validate this shift or bring fresh turbulence?

In crypto, the SEC has postponed ETF approvals for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE until May, while also launching a high-stakes roundtable on crypto regulation, set for March 21. But with Bitcoin ETFs seeing a $153.87M net outflow, driven by GBTC's 641 BTC offload, investors remain wary.

What’s next for equities and crypto? Read our full analysis here.

QCP Asia Colour - 17 March 25

Over the weekend a BTC whale opened a $400m short position with an average entry price of $84k and liquidation price around $86k. This sparked volatility on Sunday, as some groups attempted to force a liquidation of a highly leveraged 40x position, which would have required just a 2.5% price move. Despite these efforts, the position remains open with almost $400k in funding fees.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 32% (Fear). reflecting persistent risk-off sentiment, particularly given the broader negativity in equity markets. This has further reinforced BTC's role as a macro hedge. For instance, on Friday, 300x of BTC-17MAR25-80k-P was aggressively bought, a clear move to hedge against weekend volatility.

Despite the noise, BTC has held its ground above $80k, showing resilience compared to equities. In contrast, US equity futures opened lower this morning amid renewed recession fears. This follows comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. Markets will look to tonight's US Retail Sales data for further clarity and whether January's 0.9% decline in retail sales was the first sign of a slowdown in consumer spending or simply a pullback after a strong end to 2024's holiday season.

With crypto narratives running thin, equities remain the primary focus. Last week's softer-than-expected US CPI print provided temporary relief, but the Fed is unlikely to pivot dovish just yet. Rate cuts remain uncertain, given ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns. As such, we expect the Fed to keep rates steady at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, vols are likely to remain elevated as the market scans for any clues on the Fed's next move, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy shifts.