QCP Asia Colour – 1 December 2025

Why did BTC drop despite bullish macro tailwinds?

BTC opened December under pressure, sliding from 91k to 86k in early Asia hours and wiping out last week’s gains. Two catalysts drove the move:

• Asia macro shocks. Hawkish BOJ comments pushed Japan rate hike odds to 76% and China’s non-manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in almost three years. Markets are questioning whether global liquidity is truly easing.
• Strategy headlines. CEO Phong Le warned the firm could sell BTC if its stock trades below NAV and funding dries up. This sparked panic, triggering liquidations ahead of Nasdaq’s 12 December index review.

All this contrasts sharply with a supportive backdrop. QT ends today, rate cut odds for December hit 87%, Hassett is 66% likely to be the next Fed Chair, and spot ETF flows have flipped back into net inflows.

BTC had already rebounded 15% off the 81k lows, so a pullback was likely. The key question now: can BTC defend its prior lows as liquidity shifts and Strategy related flows dominate sentiment?

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 3 December 2025

BTC Holds in the 90s While Investors Brace for FOMC

BTC is steady in the mid 90s after a 5% rebound from the 86k lows, while markets sit in wait ahead of a politically charged FOMC next week.

Betting markets now price 85% odds that Kevin Hassett becomes the next Fed Chair, with a rare sequence of leadership changes set to tilt the FOMC more dovish. Futures still point to a 90% chance of a 25bp cut.

Strategy’s 1.4bn dollar equity raise has eased immediate fears, lifting mNAV back to around 1.14, though the 15 January MSCI review remains a key risk.

Is this calm the start of a reset or just the pause before the next move? Read the full colour here.

🎬 In Case You Missed It: Melvin Deng, CEO of QCP on Bloomberg TV

Melvin Deng, our CEO, spoke with Bloomberg today about the BTC rebound, the liquidations that drove price action in recent days, where we are seeing opportunities on the ground, and the key triggers that could shift the crypto landscape in 2026.

Watch it now.

QCP Asia Colour – 8 December 2025

BTC Whipsaws as Liquidity Falls to Year-End Lows

BTC swung between 88k and 92k on Sunday, with ETH jumping from 2,910 to 3,150 as thinning liquidity made markets highly sensitive to even small flows. Despite the sharp moves, liquidations remained modest, reflecting how positioning and participation have continued to decline through the quarter. Perp OI for both majors is now down 40–50% from October highs as retail interest collapses back to bear-market levels.

Beneath the quiet surface, supply is tightening. Around 25,000 BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges over the past two weeks, pushing ETF and corporate holdings above exchange balances for the first time. ETH is following the same trajectory, with exchange reserves at decade lows, indicating accumulation even as retail interest fades.

Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25bp cut is expected, but balance-sheet guidance will determine how risk assets trade into year-end. With BTC still trapped between 84k and 100k and market depth deteriorating, a clean break on either side could define the next major trend as holiday liquidity thins further.

Read the full colour here:
https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-179/

QCP Asia Colour – 10 December 2025

Markets Stabilise but Caution Dominates

BTC holds near 92k this morning as selling pressure finally cools, though sentiment remains cautious. ETF inflows improved slightly to 56.5M USD after heavy November redemptions, and derivatives markets continue to show hesitation, keeping crypto in a clear holding pattern.

Focus now shifts to tonight’s FOMC. The decision is largely priced, but Powell’s tone will dictate near-term risk appetite, especially with limited new data and key releases still ahead. Markets continue to embed expectations of a more dovish 2026 policy path despite the uncertainty.

Attention then turns to Japan. The 19 December BOJ meeting has become the next major catalyst as JGB yields reach multi-decade highs and officials express discomfort with the speed of the move. With USDJPY carry positioning stretched, any policy surprise could trigger broader volatility.

For crypto, stability masks underlying fragility. BTC is essentially flat on the year, trading in a tight 90k–93k band despite earlier swings. After peaking above 123k in mid-2025, it now sits slightly lower YTD, with corporate-treasury demand providing steady support.

Read the full colour here.

QCP Asia Colour – 18 December 2025

Markets End 2025 on a Knife Edge

Markets are closing the year with a fragile balance between confidence and caution. The Fed delivered a hawkish-tilted cut with a dovish undertone, signaling support for the labor market while keeping inflation firmly in focus. The dot plot points to a flatter rate path, with markets now pricing around 2.3 cuts over the next year.

Equities remain the key macro swing factor. Capital continues to pour into AI infrastructure, but monetization is lagging. If revenues fail to catch up with investment, the risk extends beyond AI toward a broader equity re-rating in 2026.

Crypto remains under pressure as MSCI reviews index eligibility for digital-asset treasury firms. Potential passive outflows of up to USD 2.8 billion could add strain to an already fragile market, even as regulatory developments in Japan turn incrementally more constructive.

Markets are holding together for now. But is resilience masking a thinner margin for error as we head into 2026?

Read the full colour here.

QCP US Colour, 23 December 2025

All I Want for Christmas Is Liquidity

BTC remains range-bound into Christmas as liquidity thins and traders de-risk ahead of year-end. Perpetual open interest has fallen sharply, with BTC and ETH OI declining by roughly $3bn and $2bn respectively, reducing leverage but leaving markets more vulnerable to outsized moves in either direction.

This vulnerability is heightened by Friday’s record Boxing Day options expiry, which represents over 50% of Deribit’s total open interest. While downside positioning has eased, with open interest in 85k Puts drifting lower, the persistence of 100k Calls suggests residual, if tentative, optimism for a Santa rally. Risk reversals have also softened, pointing to easing bearish sentiment as spot consolidates.

Beyond options, tax-loss harvesting ahead of 31 December could add to short-term volatility, particularly in thin markets. That said, holiday-driven moves have historically tended to mean-revert, with price action often fading as liquidity returns in January. Absent a decisive break, crypto is likely to remain range-bound into year-end.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/us-colour-2/

IT Security Reminder

As part of our ongoing security awareness efforts, we remind everyone to engage with QCP only through our official websites and verified communication channels.

During routine monitoring, we identified brand impersonation involving messaging accounts and an unofficial website, which has since been taken down. There is no impact to QCP’s systems or operations, but please note that QCP will never request transactions, credentials, or sensitive information via unofficial websites, social platforms, or unsolicited messages.

Our official channels are ONLY:
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For guidance on staying protected, please refer to our Security Warning page:
https://www.qcpgroup.com/security-warning/

If you encounter any suspicious communications claiming to represent QCP, report them at:
https://www.qcpgroup.com/report-a-security-issue/

Thank you for helping us maintain a secure and trusted operating environment.

QCP Asia Colour, 29 December 2025

New Year, Old Range

BTC rose around 2.6% in early Asia, but holiday-thin liquidity continues to distort price action. With less than $40m in long liquidations, the move appears driven by spot and perpetual buying rather than forced covering, potentially supported by renewed corporate demand.

Post-expiry positioning has shifted. BTC perpetual funding on Deribit has jumped above 30%, signalling dealers are now short gamma to the upside. This dynamic was evident as spot pushed through 90k, triggering hedging flows into perpetuals and near-dated calls. A sustained move above 94k could amplify this effect.

Downside hedging has eased after the December 85k Put was not rolled, but with open interest down roughly 50% post-expiry, conviction remains limited. Capital is sidelined, and direction likely waits for liquidity to return.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-182/

QCP Asia Colour, 5 January 2026

Regime Change: From Caracas to Crypto

After a range-bound December, crypto broke higher in early Asia, with BTC and ETH clearing $92k and $3,100. The move landed alongside firmer equities and softer oil, with markets also digesting the U.S. special forces operation that captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, now headed for U.S. court.

Crypto’s alignment with broader risk assets is looking less like a coincidence and more like a regime shift to start the year, helped by year-end tax loss harvesting fading and policy optionality back on the radar.

The Venezuela angle adds a second-order kicker. The disinflationary impulse from lower oil prices is straightforward. The less tidy part is the chatter around a potential Venezuelan “shadow” BTC reserve. With disinformation already swirling, treat reserve headlines with caution. Still, the strategic frame is hard to ignore: if any seized coins are retained, not liquidated, it tightens the market’s sovereign-accumulation narrative.

Options flows are leaning constructive: put skew is compressing, with demand in 30 Jan 2026 $100k calls and topside via straddles. A continued spot grind higher raises the odds of a gamma-assisted extension, though recent U.S. sessions have faded rallies often enough to keep positioning disciplined.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-183/

QCP Asia Colour, 12 January 2026

A New Risk Premium, an Old BTC Pattern

Bitcoin, gold and silver rallied in early Asia as the US dollar sold off sharply. The move followed Powell’s comments that the Department of Justice’s subpoena of the Federal Reserve, alongside Friday’s threats of potential criminal charges, were being read by markets as retaliation linked to the Fed’s policy stance, rather than issues tied to his June testimony.

The immediate economic impact may be limited, but the signal is not. Any perceived erosion of central bank independence risks undermining institutional credibility, a narrative that has historically been enough to drive rotation into alternative stores of value.

Gold and silver behaved accordingly, extending already constructive momentum. BTC joined the initial bid but failed to follow through, rejecting 92k and retracing into the European open, consistent with the familiar Q4 pattern.

Derivatives flows also point to bullish timing being pushed out rather than reinforced. Last week saw partial reductions in long-dated call exposure, alongside rolls into later, higher strikes.

US-hours selling remains a feature and uncertainty around the remaining supply overhang continues to cap upside. With macro volatility rising, crypto’s relative appeal looks increasingly challenged against the resilience of precious metals and equities.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on US CPI (Tue, 13 Jan) and the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling (Wed, 14 Jan), both likely to shape cross-asset positioning and risk sentiment.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-3/

QCP Asia Colour, 14 January 2026

We're goin' up, up, up, it's our moment
You know together we're glowin'
Gonna be, gonna be golden
-KPOP Demon Hunters

Goldilocks still holds: US jobs look steady and inflation remains stable. Risk is back across the board, from equities and precious metals to the dollar and crypto.

Despite Venezuela and Iran headlines with US involvement, markets are staying calm. Oil has picked up a geopolitical premium, but the broader tape remains resilient.

Cynically, investors are reading this through a midterm lens: Trump is expected to chase market highs, leaning on liquidity and a more assertive US stance that supports US outperformance and a global risk-on tone.

Bitcoin has finally pushed through $95k after months of failed rallies. If metals keep catching a debasement bid, BTC’s relative value may pull flows back into digital assets.

Key risks linger, including the pending Supreme Court tariff decision and any further escalation in Venezuela or Iran. For now, price action suggests much is already priced. Absent a true shock, dips still look buyable.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-4/

2025 was two-speed. 2026 is about positioning for what comes next.

In 2025, Q3 saw broad expansion, then Q4 brought a leverage-driven drawdown. Even as price action swung, the institutional rails kept building. Stablecoin supply grew, tokenised RWAs expanded, and regulation continued to shape market structure.

QCP’s H2 2025 Crypto Market Review puts these moves in context for institutional decision-makers. It tracks H2 through stablecoins, RWAs, digital asset treasuries, and evolving regulation, and connects market structure, flows, and positioning to the key risks and catalysts shaping 2026.

Take our short survey to get complimentary access now. https://bit.ly/4pRLkC1

QCP Asia Colour, 21 January 2026

From Tokyo to Tariffs: Risk-Off Returns, Bitcoin Blinks

Within the span of a week, risk has slipped back off the table. A shock from Japan and renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed markets into defensive mode, with equities wobbling and global rates back in focus.

Japan sits at the center of this unease. The repricing in JGB yields is doing more than lifting domestic borrowing costs. It is forcing global investors to revisit a familiar transmission channel: when Japan’s rates move, cross-border duration positioning, funding assumptions, and risk premia tend to move with it. In a market already sensitive to policy error, Japan is back on the list of credible volatility catalysts.

Across the Atlantic, US–Europe tensions are escalating again. Tariff headlines and retaliation risk are returning to the foreground, raising the odds of a more confrontational trade backdrop. For markets, the question is not whether the rhetoric flares, but whether it hardens into policy that dents confidence and tightens financial conditions at the margin.

Crypto has not been spared. Bitcoin remains under pressure and is trading less like a hedge and more like a high-beta macro proxy, highly responsive to rates, geopolitics, and broader cross-asset volatility. Until clearer policy signals emerge, crypto is likely to stay reactive rather than directional.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-21-january-2026/

QCP Group has attained the Cyber Trust Advocate certification under the CSA’s SG Cyber Safe Programme, a risk-based cybersecurity mark designed for organisations with more extensive digital operations.

For our partners in financial services, trust is foundational. This milestone reflects our continued work to strengthen our security posture and operational resilience, so clients and counterparties can engage with QCP with greater confidence as we scale.

🔗 Read the full announcement: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-attains-csa-cyber-trust-mark-advocate-under-the-sg-cyber-safe-programme/

QCP Asia Colour, 26 January 2026

Crypto Slips as Macro Fears Stack Up

Crypto started the week on the back foot after a quiet weekend, with early Asia selling triggering over $550m of long liquidations. BTC briefly tested 86k before stabilising, while ETH dipped toward 2,785. Meanwhile, gold and silver extended gains, reinforcing the broader risk-off tone.

Macro headlines are doing the heavy lifting: tariff rhetoric, U.S. fiscal brinkmanship, and fresh nerves around potential U.S.-Japan action to steady the yen. USD/JPY remains near two-month highs around 154, keeping positioning defensive as investors reduce short-yen exposure.

With government funding set to expire end-week, markets are also watching shutdown risk closely. Derivatives are already reflecting caution, with put skew and implied volatility firming and traders rolling downside protection in BTC.

For the full breakdown, including positioning, key options flows, and what we are watching into tech earnings and the Fed, read the full note on our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-5/

QCP Market Colour, 28 January 2026

From Funding Cliff to Skew

BTC has snapped back to the $88,000 handle, still a trap door level. Breaks below it have recently lined up with faster, liquidation-led air pockets, while quick reclaims have pulled price back into range.

Now the tape runs into a heavy US macro stack: the FOMC decision today (Jan 28), a Jan 30 funding deadline that keeps shutdown risk live, and renewed Senate scheduling on crypto market-structure, all while FX stays jumpy after the USD/JPY rate-check reminder of how quickly crowded positioning can unwind.

Options reflect that asymmetry. Vol remains contained and the curve stays in contango, so the base case is still chop, not crash. But the left tail is bid: skew remains negative and near-dated wings are rich, which reads like gap-risk hedging, not a smooth vol uptrend. “Low vol” alone is not a clean green light to sell.

On fiscal risk, the key question is how cleanly Washington clears Jan 30. A timely stopgap should compress near-term risk premia and let crypto trade more like straight beta. A brief lapse likely means a wobble that retraces once a deal lands. A prolonged standoff is the scenario that tightens liquidity and forces broader de-risking.

The nearer hinge is the Fed. Base case is unchanged rates, with focus on when cuts resume. Inflation remains above 2% even as jobs soften, keeping the Committee cautious and data-dependent. With independence under scrutiny, expect an independence defence and a familiar wait-for-more-data script, with scope for a USD bounce and a near-term risk wobble on a hawkish hold.

Read the full note on our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-28-january-2026/

QCP Asia Colour - 2 February 2026

Kevin Warsh In as Crypto Washes Out

BTC broke below 80k over the weekend after confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, triggering broad deleveraging across crypto markets. BTC briefly touched 74.5k while ETH fell below 2,170, with over $2.5b in leveraged long positions liquidated. Persistent ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment, marking BTC’s fourth consecutive red month.

Risk aversion has spread across assets, pressuring equities and extending to gold and silver as markets reassess the Fed outlook under Warsh. BTC is now stabilizing above 74.5k, a key technical level aligned with the 2025 cycle lows, while options skew remains defensive but less extreme than during prior sell-offs.

Key levels to watch remain 74k on the downside and 80k on the upside, with institutional flows and Fed communication likely to drive near-term direction.

Is BTC forming a base here, or is another flush still ahead? Read the full colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 4 February 2026

From Shutdown Relief to Deadline Risk

Crypto remains volatile. BTC dipped to ~72.9k, its lowest level since the post-election surge, before rebounding as the U.S. House passed a funding package, reducing near-term shutdown risk. Positioning de-risked into the move, with open interest compressing and funding flipping negative, and spot is now trying to stabilise back above 75k.

Macro stress has eased, but not disappeared. Homeland Security funding only runs through 13 February, keeping another deadline on the calendar, while oil has rebuilt a modest geopolitical premium that is still being capped by diplomacy headlines.

Options are still flashing caution. Front-end implied remains bid, term structure is flirting with mild backwardation, and downside skew has steepened, signalling the market is still paying for near-term gap risk. Tactically, 75k is the inflection point: hold and funding normalises, risk can be added; break and the tape can turn defensive quickly.

Read the full note on our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour/

We're proud to deepen our partnership with Talos as a strategic investor in their $45M Series B extension (bringing the round to $150M). Institutional-grade digital asset infrastructure is becoming foundational as capital markets move onto digital rails.

Big congrats to the Talos team on the milestone!

Read more: https://www.talos.com/insights/talos-extends-series-b-to-150m-in-strategic-fundraise?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=owned-social&utm_term=adb00a99-88f2-4680-9dff-6803c983442b&utm_content=&utm_campaign=general

BTC below 66K. Volatility is back in focus.

At yesterday’s panel discussion, QCP’s Head of Trading, Ivan Lee, joined Vincent Liu of Kronos Research and Anton Katz of Talos to share what institutions need to get right on allocation, execution, and risk management in today’s market.

For nearly a decade, QCP has operated through every market cycle, helping clients navigate volatility and build durable digital asset strategies. Read the full event recap and our latest insights on navigating this environment here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-qcp-head-of-trading-ivan-lee-on-digital-assets-as-a-durable-asset-class/