BTC below 66K. Volatility is back in focus.

At yesterday’s panel discussion, QCP’s Head of Trading, Ivan Lee, joined Vincent Liu of Kronos Research and Anton Katz of Talos to share what institutions need to get right on allocation, execution, and risk management in today’s market.

For nearly a decade, QCP has operated through every market cycle, helping clients navigate volatility and build durable digital asset strategies. Read the full event recap and our latest insights on navigating this environment here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-qcp-head-of-trading-ivan-lee-on-digital-assets-as-a-durable-asset-class/

QCP Market Colour, 11 February 2026

Crypto Rebounds as ETF Inflows Return, but Macro Catalysts Still Loom

Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from last week’s lows, fuelling optimism that a near-term bottom may be forming. BTC pushed up to $71,000, while ETH reached $2,150, helping to steady sentiment after the sharp selloff. Near term, we still expect BTC to trade range-bound as the market waits for fresh catalysts.

Flows are doing most of the talking. According to SoSoValue, spot BTC ETFs recorded $145m of net inflows yesterday, building on Friday’s $371m and snapping a run of outflows, a sign that institutional demand is reappearing. Spot ETH ETFs also flipped back to $57m of inflows after three days of outflows, alongside continued accumulation from Tom Lee’s BitMine, offering a constructive backdrop for Ethereum.

Macro has also softened at the margin. U.S.-Iran tensions appear to have eased after last Friday’s talks, while weaker job data has markets leaning toward a potential March rate cut. Attention now turns to NFP and Friday’s CPI, two releases that can quickly reset Fed expectations and risk appetite.

Positioning signals are less dramatic but improving. The Coinbase BTC discount has narrowed from around 20bps to about 9bps, suggesting reduced U.S.-led spot selling pressure, though sentiment remains fragile with Fear & Greed still in extreme fear at 9. BTC/ETH is steady at 33 to 34, implying limited rotation, and while implied volatility has come off the highs, it remains elevated, keeping realised volatility firm into the macro-heavy week ahead.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/crypto-rebounds-as-etf-inflows-return-but-macro-catalysts-still-loom/

With Bitcoin hitting ~$67k, the market’s key questions are back in focus: is BTC still evolving into a long-term store of value, or trading as just another high-beta risk asset in global portfolios?

On MONEY FM 89.3’s Wealth Tracker, Hongbin Jeong spoke with QCP’s Head of Client Coverage, Elbert Iswara, about what is driving the volatility and what it means for investors.

Key takeaways:
• Macro conditions are setting direction, while crypto-specific flows and leverage amplify moves
• Correlation with equities tends to rise in risk-off regimes and fade as conditions stabilise
• Watch ETF flow persistence, derivatives positioning, and spot depth around key levels

Read the full interview recap here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-elbert-iswara-on-money-fms-wealth-tracker-bitcoins-identity-in-a-risk-off-world/

Happy Lunar New Year from all of us at QCP. We wish you a year of good health, prosperity, and continued success. 🧧✨

QCP Market Colour, 23 February 2026
No Liberation from Trump’s Tariffs

BTC slipped below $65,000 in early Asia trading, triggering roughly $230 million in long liquidations as markets digested fresh tariff risk and broader geopolitics. Trump’s move to lift global tariffs from 10% to 15% has added another layer of policy uncertainty just as macro risk appetite thins.

With BTC still well below estimated average mining costs of roughly $84,000, the strain is showing in the mining complex, where liquidity is taking priority over accumulation. Bitdeer’s reported full liquidation of its BTC treasury is the latest signal of de-risking as some operators pivot toward AI.

Yet the tape is not uniformly bearish. Liquidation cascades look less violent than earlier this year, and the market’s reaction to headlines has become more measured. Options still price downside protection, but skew is less stretched, suggesting positioning is cleaner.

ETF flows also look more like basis trade unwinds than a wholesale exit. Positioning appears to be shifting, not disappearing.

For the full analysis, including what we’re watching next and the key levels that matter, read the full note on our website. https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-2/

In CoinDesk’s Asia Morning Briefing last week, our Founder and CIO, Darius Sit, discusses why crypto isn't losing to gold, and how gold’s market depth and buyer base can make it more resilient in risk-off periods, while crypto prices are more sensitive to leverage, forced selling, and how exchanges manage stress.

Key takeaways:
• Not all “risk-off” assets behave the same, hence why market structure matters
• Short-term underperformance doesn’t necessarily equal long-term thesis failure
• Transparent, consistent handling of liquidations is central to investor confidence

Read the full interview to learn more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-darius-sit-in-coindesk-asia-morning-briefing/

Gold is rallying and crypto is now part of the discussion. Ivan Lee, Head of Trading here at QCP, spoke with Hongbin Jeong on Money FM 89.3’s Wealth Tracker on why Tether is accumulating physical gold and what it signals for investors.

Key points:
• “Digital gold” is a metaphor for Bitcoin’s scarcity, not a replacement for gold’s role
• Gold remains a globally accepted reserve asset, and can help diversify crypto-native balance sheets
• Bitcoin and gold can coexist in portfolios, but they tend to behave differently in risk-off versus liquidity-expansion regimes

Listen to the full interview: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-ivan-lee-on-money-fm-89-3s-wealth-tracker-is-crypto-behind-the-gold-rally/

QCP Market Colour, 2 March 2026
Crypto holds its range as Iran risk rises

Crypto markets remain range-bound as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran intensify. The initial US attack on Iran on Saturday sent BTC and ETH briefly lower to $63,000 and $1,910 before retracing back into their prevailing ranges.

Approximately $300m in long liquidations were triggered as the news broke, notable but contained versus the more disorderly deleveraging seen in early February. That points to lighter positioning heading into the weekend, and may also hint that BTC’s “weekend macro hedge” role is facing competition from alternatives such as tokenized gold.

Options markets echoed the restraint. While 1-day implied volatility briefly spiked to 93%, the broader volatility complex stayed measured, with front-end implied vols struggling to hold above 60 vols, and the move was less forceful than last Tuesday at similar spot levels.

Despite the larger scale versus last June’s strike, price action is not flashing panic. Options flows include buyers of 1000x BTC-27MAR26-74k-C and 4000x BTC-27MAR26-75k-C, suggesting some are positioning for a March rebound after five consecutive down months.

Even so, we remain cautious. The key is whether the conflict stays contained. Watch Iran’s capacity for direct escalation, and the US ability to protect maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-3/

QCP Market Colour, 04 March 2026
Hormuz Shock Tests the AI Trade, Bitcoin Holds Firm

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, tightening energy supply and pushing prices higher. Brent is at $83/bbl and Dutch Natural Gas (TTF) is up 50% at $55, with refineries reportedly coming under fire and maritime insurance retreating even as Washington floats backstops and naval escorts.

The knock-on effects are hitting the AI and tech trade. Korea, heavily reliant on imported energy and home to key semiconductor champions, is feeling the squeeze, with the KOSPI down 20% from its highs.

We expect continued volatility, but if the disruption persists, pressure to reopen Hormuz is likely to build. Bitcoin has held up better than broader risk, and bears watching as an early signal of stabilising sentiment.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-4/

QCP Weekly Wrap, 2–6 March 2026

Geopolitics drove headlines, but oil drove markets.

What began as a standard risk-off move quickly evolved into an inflation-overlay regime, where rising energy risk kept yields sticky and traditional havens less reliable. Treasuries failed to hedge as usual, the USD stayed supported, and volatility rotated through Asia.

Crypto initially held firm, then broke higher into Thursday on strong ETF inflows and a sharp rise in open interest, before giving back gains as macro volatility returned. The key question now: does oil keep rates heavy, or does energy de-escalate and reopen the path for sustained beta?

Read our full weekly breakdown, including:
• Cross-asset regime analysis
• OTC desk positioning insights
• Key watch variables for next week
• Regulatory and market structure developments

Subscribe to our newsletter for the complete note.

QCP Market Colour, 09 March 2026
Missiles Over Markets

Tensions in Iran failed to de-escalate over the weekend, pushing oil above $115 on fears of sustained supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability. Global equities have turned defensive.

Traditional havens have not behaved as expected. US Treasuries and gold have come under pressure as higher crude stokes inflation fears and lifts yields, leaving the US dollar as the preferred defensive trade, supported by elevated rates and the US’s net energy exporter status.

Against that backdrop, BTC has been notably resilient even as the VIX sits above 29. Options positioning also looks less panicked than last week’s initial shock, with put skew less extreme and flows pointing to volatility expectations rather than a one-way flush lower. March open interest remains concentrated at the 75k and 125k call strikes, signalling pockets of optimism despite macro uncertainty.

Key Events to Watch
Wed (11 Mar): US CPI
Thu (12 Mar): US Unemployment Claims
Fri (13 Mar): Core PCE, JOLTS Job Openings

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-5/

QCP Market Colour, 11 March 2026
BTC Holds Firm as Markets Price a Stagflationary Shock

BTC has shown notable resilience following the latest geopolitical shock, rebounding toward $70k after briefly dipping below $63k during the initial risk unwind. While the recovery is encouraging, price action still looks more like stabilisation than a full return to risk-on positioning.

Options markets reflect that caution. Volatility has eased into the mid-50s, but risk reversals remain firmly negative, with short-dated downside protection still in demand. In other words, spot is holding up, but conviction on the upside remains tentative.

The broader macro backdrop explains why. Since tensions escalated in the Middle East, equities have softened while Treasury yields have climbed and Fed rate cuts have been pushed further out. The result is a stagflationary mix of firmer inflation and weaker growth, rather than a traditional flight-to-safety environment.

Oil remains the key driver. Brent briefly approached $120 before reversing after discussions of a large coordinated strategic reserve release by the IEA and G7. Even so, sharp swings in crude underscore how fragile liquidity and positioning remain across macro markets.

With US CPI due later today, markets remain highly sensitive to any shift in the inflation narrative.

Read the full market colour here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-5/

QCP Market Colour, 16 March 2026
Crypto Strikes Back

The war is not letting up, and neither is crypto. BTC and ETH have pushed above $74k and $2,270 respectively, even as equities and gold remain under pressure, a late-quarter divergence that markets are now being forced to price.

The move is reviving the “digital safe haven” and “geopolitical hedge” narrative, with rising Iran-related tensions appearing to drive greater on-chain activity and demand for cross-border liquidity. USDC supply hit a record $81.1B last week, lifting overall stablecoin supply and signalling fresh liquidity entering crypto amid global uncertainty.

Institutional bid looks to be returning as well. Bitcoin ETFs have logged five consecutive days of inflows, with BlackRock’s ETF posting its third straight week of inflows, totaling $1.75 billion, while Strategy continues to add to its BTC holdings as momentum around STRC builds.

In options, spot is nearing a large month-end open interest strike, around 8,000 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-75K-C. A clean break above $75k could trigger a gamma-driven chase, though $74.5k remains the immediate hurdle with short liquidations clustered just overhead.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-6/

QCP Market Colour, 18 March 2026
BTC Range Holds as Central Banks Take Centre Stage

BTC is hovering around $74k this morning, still holding the post-shock range but struggling to push through the recent highs. The broader crypto complex remains soft, though relative to the drawdown in other macro-sensitive risk assets, the damage has been fairly contained. On-chain flows still suggest dip-buying toward the lower end of the range, but spot volumes are light and near-term direction remains macro-led.

In options, conditions are firm but defensive. 30-day implied vol is holding near the 50 handle, still above realised, keeping carry positive and the setup supportive for premium sellers. Term structure remains mildly in contango, while 30-day risk reversals continue to price puts richer than calls. Skew is not extreme, but a residual geopolitical premium remains embedded further out the curve.

Macro is the dominant driver into a dense central bank week, with the Fed on Wednesday followed by the ECB, BoJ and BoE on Thursday. Markets have pared easing expectations as higher oil complicates the case for cuts, even as growth and labour data soften, leaving the rates backdrop less supportive for crypto.

With oil hovering near $100 and geopolitics keeping a stagflationary tone across assets, BTC is no longer trading as pure high-beta risk, but it is not yet seeing consistent safe-haven inflows either. For now, the range likely holds until policy or geopolitics offers clearer direction.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-7/

QCP Weekly Wrap, 16–20 March 2026
A hawkish Fed and rising oil reset the macro.

Early-week strength in crypto, driven by ETF inflows and positioning, pushed BTC toward $75k. But a hawkish FOMC and renewed energy shock tightened financial conditions, triggering a cross-asset pullback before stabilisation into Friday.

The takeaway: flows can support rallies, but rates and oil still set the ceiling.

Subscribe to our newsletter for the full breakdown, including:
• Cross-asset regime analysis
• OTC desk positioning insights
• Key watch variables for next week
• Regulatory and market structure developments

QCP Market Colour, 24 March 2026
Crypto Dragged Down As The War Drags On?

Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait over the weekend did not unfold as planned. Risk assets initially weakened as markets priced elevated geopolitical risk, including the threat of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure. After the deadline passed, Trump postponed planned action, citing “productive conversations”, helping steady crypto and broader risk even as Tehran denied that any talks occurred. With facts still murky, markets took some reprieve from the reported five-day pause window.

Crypto, however, has continued to show surprising resilience. BTC briefly dipped below $70k over the weekend, but held up better than prior risk-off episodes, when thin liquidity would often have amplified downside. This may reflect lower leverage across the system, but it may also hint at the early stages of a regime shift, where BTC no longer trades as a pure high-beta proxy for equities.

The macro backdrop is making that framing easier to test. U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion, with additional fiscal outlays now being discussed, while signs of stagflation are emerging and central banks face the familiar policy trap. In that environment, BTC can begin to look less like a speculative asset and more like a neutral escape valve.

Geopolitics is reinforcing the point. Iran has floated a “yuan-for-passage” proposal, effectively tying Hormuz access to settlement in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. We are not there yet, with the dollar still firm and bond markets still functioning, but the longer this drags on, the more room there is for BTC’s neutral, permissionless settlement narrative to re-enter the conversation.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-8/

Eid Mubarak from all of us at QCP.

Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful and peaceful Eid Al-Adha, filled with reflection, gratitude, and meaningful moments with family and friends.

QCP Market Colour, 26 March 2026
Quiet Range, Loud Backdrop

BTC is hovering around $70k, and the tape still reads as quiet consolidation rather than stress. Macro remains fragile on renewed Middle East headlines, with oil retaining a geopolitical premium even after easing off the highs. Against that backdrop, BTC’s resilience stands out: recent net outflows suggest coins are being pulled off venues rather than positioned for sale, while BTC dominance continues to edge higher, reinforcing a more defensive tilt within crypto.

The bigger macro question is that markets have repriced the inflation shock faster than the growth shock. Risk assets have absorbed higher oil and a rates reset, but the extent of any growth damage remains unclear if geopolitical stress persists. That leaves BTC in an in-between regime, no longer a pure high-beta proxy for equities, but not yet a consistent safe haven either, keeping price action range-bound and headline-driven.

Options are telling a similar story. Implied vols are easing on the day and week, carry remains positive, and the curve stays in mild contango. Downside hedges are still in demand, even if not at extremes, suggesting caution is being priced, not panic.

For now, BTC looks accumulated on dips but not chased. Until geopolitics stabilises or macro repricing moves further, this remains a headline-driven range market rather than the start of a clean trend.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-9/

QCP Market Colour, 30 March 2026
BTC Holds Range as U.S. Holds Fire

BTC briefly dipped to $65k in thin Asia hours before rebounding into the $66k to $67k range, continuing a familiar pattern of weekend weakness followed by early-week stabilisation. Despite last Friday’s post-expiry sell-off and unresolved tensions in Iran, BTC has held the broader $65k to $70k range, even as it tracks toward a sixth consecutive red monthly close, reflecting still-fragile sentiment.

That said, BTC’s relative performance has been notable. It has outpaced gold and equities since the Iran conflict began, suggesting some resilience even as macro remains strained. With Trump’s 10-day pause on strikes approaching its April 6 deadline, markets are bracing for potential escalation, keeping BTC range-bound and headline-driven.

Macro and geopolitics remain tightly linked. Elevated oil prices and ongoing supply chain risks, particularly around key chokepoints, continue to reinforce a stagflationary backdrop. Even in a de-escalation scenario, war risk premiums are unlikely to ease quickly, leaving inflation pressures sticky.

In options, post-expiry vol compression has been muted, with traders still paying for gamma and overwriters largely sidelined. The surface reflects caution, not panic, consistent with a market that is stable, but not yet ready to break higher.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-10/

Quantum Risk Is Real, But Not Crypto-Specific, 1 Apr 2026

Google researchers have suggested that quantum computing could challenge today’s cryptographic security standards with fewer resources than previously assumed. But the implications extend far beyond crypto. That same security standard underpins banking systems, encrypted communications, and global financial infrastructure, meaning any breakthrough would be systemic, not isolated.

At the same time, the gap between theory and reality remains wide. Current quantum systems are still orders of magnitude below what would be required to materially threaten encryption, leaving a meaningful window for both crypto and traditional finance to adapt.

This is less an immediate risk and more a structural shift already being priced into long-term security roadmaps. But if the foundations of digital trust are eventually tested, where does the real vulnerability lie, crypto, or the system it mirrors?

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/quantum-risk-is-real-but-not-crypto-specific/