QCP Asia Colour – 23 December 24
After last week's washout, spot continues to chop sideways as approach the festive holidays. While this may seem like a quiet week for markets, all eyes are on the massive expiry this Friday, where almost $20B notional across BTC and ETH options will expire. This represents almost half the total OI on Deribit.
Will we see the typical quarter-end vol selloff post expiry? We believe it's quite possible especially if spot continues to range here and as option sellers continue to roll their shorts out. Unlike most option sellers who have to wait for collateral to be released post-expiry, Call buyers would have likely already rolled most of their positions. However, if BTC manages to break 100k, vols are likely to hold firm.
Meanwhile as BTC continues to struggle below 100k, we could also see alts start to play catch up again. A similar trend was observed a month ago where BTC was trading around these levels and ETHBTC bounced off 0.032 support. With BTC dominance still at 58%, we are closely watching for a significant drop below this level to confirm a rotation into alts.
After last week's washout, spot continues to chop sideways as approach the festive holidays. While this may seem like a quiet week for markets, all eyes are on the massive expiry this Friday, where almost $20B notional across BTC and ETH options will expire. This represents almost half the total OI on Deribit.
Will we see the typical quarter-end vol selloff post expiry? We believe it's quite possible especially if spot continues to range here and as option sellers continue to roll their shorts out. Unlike most option sellers who have to wait for collateral to be released post-expiry, Call buyers would have likely already rolled most of their positions. However, if BTC manages to break 100k, vols are likely to hold firm.
Meanwhile as BTC continues to struggle below 100k, we could also see alts start to play catch up again. A similar trend was observed a month ago where BTC was trading around these levels and ETHBTC bounced off 0.032 support. With BTC dominance still at 58%, we are closely watching for a significant drop below this level to confirm a rotation into alts.
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QCP Asia Colour – 24 December 24
What Santa Rally? The anticipated rally failed to materialize as Mt. Gox moved $49.3 million in BTC, triggering a selloff to 92.5k—a 14% drop from last week’s all-time high—before a rebound to reclaim 95k. Sentiment appears to be softening, with liquidity drying up toward year-end and spot ETFs seeing their third consecutive day of outflows yesterday.
MicroStrategy announced another BTC purchase of $561 million at an average price of 106,662, marking its seventh consecutive week of buying. However, this represents its smallest purchase in recent weeks, prompting questions about its appetite at these levels.
Interestingly, despite the slide, there was no notable rush to cover gamma, with front-end vols staying subdued. Ahead of Friday's Mega Expiry, the market appears primed for volatility, with vol flies elevated at +2.0—indicating it has yet to find its footing.
With traditional markets winding down with shortened hours or closures, Bitcoin’s 24/7 nature could serve as a key outlet for views on extraordinary events. For instance, BTC/KRW recently reflected market responses to President Yoon's martial law declaration. Hence, we remain cautious of potential gap moves.
What Santa Rally? The anticipated rally failed to materialize as Mt. Gox moved $49.3 million in BTC, triggering a selloff to 92.5k—a 14% drop from last week’s all-time high—before a rebound to reclaim 95k. Sentiment appears to be softening, with liquidity drying up toward year-end and spot ETFs seeing their third consecutive day of outflows yesterday.
MicroStrategy announced another BTC purchase of $561 million at an average price of 106,662, marking its seventh consecutive week of buying. However, this represents its smallest purchase in recent weeks, prompting questions about its appetite at these levels.
Interestingly, despite the slide, there was no notable rush to cover gamma, with front-end vols staying subdued. Ahead of Friday's Mega Expiry, the market appears primed for volatility, with vol flies elevated at +2.0—indicating it has yet to find its footing.
With traditional markets winding down with shortened hours or closures, Bitcoin’s 24/7 nature could serve as a key outlet for views on extraordinary events. For instance, BTC/KRW recently reflected market responses to President Yoon's martial law declaration. Hence, we remain cautious of potential gap moves.
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QCP Asia Colour – 30 December 24
As expected, we saw the typical quarter-end post-expiry vol selloff as vols are 2-3 vols lower since Friday's record-breaking expiry.
Although BTC is consolidating near the bottom of the 1-mth range and is flattish returns on the month, both BTC and ETH performed decently in Q4: BTC is up 48% while ETH is up 30%. However it may be a little premature to sum up the quarter for now. Just yesterday, Saylor posted his BTC purchase tracker again which could signal another round of imminent purchases, supporting prices further.
Despite the possibility of another round of purchases, we are skeptical of any New Year fireworks especially with funding healthy. January's average returns (+3.3%) are relatively similar to December's (+4.8%), and we could expect spot to remain in this range in the near-term before things start to pick from Feb onwards.
Options flows are also reflecting similar sentiments with frontend vols drifting lower and risk-reversals most bid for Calls in March, partly due to significant March (120k-130k) Calls bought last Friday.
As expected, we saw the typical quarter-end post-expiry vol selloff as vols are 2-3 vols lower since Friday's record-breaking expiry.
Although BTC is consolidating near the bottom of the 1-mth range and is flattish returns on the month, both BTC and ETH performed decently in Q4: BTC is up 48% while ETH is up 30%. However it may be a little premature to sum up the quarter for now. Just yesterday, Saylor posted his BTC purchase tracker again which could signal another round of imminent purchases, supporting prices further.
Despite the possibility of another round of purchases, we are skeptical of any New Year fireworks especially with funding healthy. January's average returns (+3.3%) are relatively similar to December's (+4.8%), and we could expect spot to remain in this range in the near-term before things start to pick from Feb onwards.
Options flows are also reflecting similar sentiments with frontend vols drifting lower and risk-reversals most bid for Calls in March, partly due to significant March (120k-130k) Calls bought last Friday.
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QCP Asia Colour – 31 December 24
BTC spot has been notably gappy due to thinner liquidity. Any upside recovery over the past couple of days has been capped by persistent selling pressure.
Momentum in BTC has clearly fizzled as the year ends, with $1.8 billion of net outflows from spot ETFs since Dec 19 and a noticeable slowdown in MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases.
The weak price action in crypto mirrors broader market sentiment, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ logging their third >1% drop in eight sessions as markets price in heightened uncertainty around global trade heading into 2025.
Q1 2025 Outlook
Despite a lackluster finish, BTC will close the year up 120%, outperforming globally stocks and gold. For 2025, while optimism surrounds crypto-friendly regulations post-Trump inauguration, we think the key catalyst may come in January as institutions readjust asset allocations.
With BTC now broadly adopted by a broad spectrum of institutions—adding university endowment funds to the list this year—allocations are likely to increase, strengthening Bitcoin dominance, stabilizing spot movements, and shifting volatility dynamics closer to equities. Expect stronger demand for downside puts for hedging and more covered call selling on the topside.
BTC spot has been notably gappy due to thinner liquidity. Any upside recovery over the past couple of days has been capped by persistent selling pressure.
Momentum in BTC has clearly fizzled as the year ends, with $1.8 billion of net outflows from spot ETFs since Dec 19 and a noticeable slowdown in MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases.
The weak price action in crypto mirrors broader market sentiment, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ logging their third >1% drop in eight sessions as markets price in heightened uncertainty around global trade heading into 2025.
Q1 2025 Outlook
Despite a lackluster finish, BTC will close the year up 120%, outperforming globally stocks and gold. For 2025, while optimism surrounds crypto-friendly regulations post-Trump inauguration, we think the key catalyst may come in January as institutions readjust asset allocations.
With BTC now broadly adopted by a broad spectrum of institutions—adding university endowment funds to the list this year—allocations are likely to increase, strengthening Bitcoin dominance, stabilizing spot movements, and shifting volatility dynamics closer to equities. Expect stronger demand for downside puts for hedging and more covered call selling on the topside.
❤31🔥5👍4🫡4
QCP Asia Colour – 6 January 25
A positive start to the week as BTC managed to inch closer towards the 100k mark, staring down the hefty sell wall yet again. This is the level which saw increased selling pressure in December.
So will BTC break 100k again? The first time this key level was broken, on 5-Dec, funding skyrocketed above 60%. However funding levels remain healthy this time round and we do not anticipate a squeeze higher in the near-term. Unlike previously, it's also quite unlikely we get any Trump-related catalysts till after his 20-Jan inauguration. Frontend vols have also remained soft with a relatively neutral skew which indicate a similar sentiment.
With no crypto-specific catalysts on the horizon, focus will be on the first US jobs report of the year this Friday (10-Jan). However expectations for Fridays NFP will be firmed up through the week with the release of JOLTS job opening numbers and ADP on 7-Jan and 8-Jan respectively.
A positive start to the week as BTC managed to inch closer towards the 100k mark, staring down the hefty sell wall yet again. This is the level which saw increased selling pressure in December.
So will BTC break 100k again? The first time this key level was broken, on 5-Dec, funding skyrocketed above 60%. However funding levels remain healthy this time round and we do not anticipate a squeeze higher in the near-term. Unlike previously, it's also quite unlikely we get any Trump-related catalysts till after his 20-Jan inauguration. Frontend vols have also remained soft with a relatively neutral skew which indicate a similar sentiment.
With no crypto-specific catalysts on the horizon, focus will be on the first US jobs report of the year this Friday (10-Jan). However expectations for Fridays NFP will be firmed up through the week with the release of JOLTS job opening numbers and ADP on 7-Jan and 8-Jan respectively.
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QCP Asia Colour – 7 January 25
What's a QCP Tuesday Colour without mentioning MicroStrategy? The company has purchased another 1,070 BTC at an average price of ~$94k. This follows news that they are raising up to $2 billion through perpetual preferred stock.
Bitcoin is trading at a premium on Coinbase as spot pushes above $100k for the first time in two weeks. This coincides with spot ETFs returning to net inflows, as ETF issuers mostly trades and custody with Coinbase. This trend may suggest institutions are increasing their 2025 Bitcoin allocations, as mentioned in our commentary on 31st Dec.
Waves of favorable regulatory narratives continue to support the spot market. In Canada, pro-crypto politician Pierre Poilievre is now favored to replace Justin Trudeau as the next Prime Minister, according to Polymarket.
However, It won’t be smooth sailing into January, as structural risks loom. The U.S. Treasury debt ceiling reinstatement is projected to be reinstated mid-month, requiring the Treasury to adopt "extraordinary measures" to fund government expenditures. This could trigger market volatility as discussions around the issue intensify.
What's a QCP Tuesday Colour without mentioning MicroStrategy? The company has purchased another 1,070 BTC at an average price of ~$94k. This follows news that they are raising up to $2 billion through perpetual preferred stock.
Bitcoin is trading at a premium on Coinbase as spot pushes above $100k for the first time in two weeks. This coincides with spot ETFs returning to net inflows, as ETF issuers mostly trades and custody with Coinbase. This trend may suggest institutions are increasing their 2025 Bitcoin allocations, as mentioned in our commentary on 31st Dec.
Waves of favorable regulatory narratives continue to support the spot market. In Canada, pro-crypto politician Pierre Poilievre is now favored to replace Justin Trudeau as the next Prime Minister, according to Polymarket.
However, It won’t be smooth sailing into January, as structural risks loom. The U.S. Treasury debt ceiling reinstatement is projected to be reinstated mid-month, requiring the Treasury to adopt "extraordinary measures" to fund government expenditures. This could trigger market volatility as discussions around the issue intensify.
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QCP Asia Colour – 31 December 24
BTC spot has been notably gappy due to thinner liquidity. Any upside recovery over the past couple of days has been capped by persistent selling pressure.
Momentum in BTC has clearly fizzled as the year ends, with $1.8 billion…
BTC spot has been notably gappy due to thinner liquidity. Any upside recovery over the past couple of days has been capped by persistent selling pressure.
Momentum in BTC has clearly fizzled as the year ends, with $1.8 billion…
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QCP Asia Colour – 8 January 25
Bitcoin has retraced to the $95K support level following hotter-than-expected US job data. JOLTS job openings surged to 8.1 million, surpassing the 7.74 million forecast. The unexpected strength in the labor market fueled risk-off sentiment, triggering a sell-off in risky assets as long-term bond yields spiked.
Bitcoin's sharp price drop resulted in approximately $206 million in liquidations within an hour. The risk-off ripple effects extended across other financial markets, particularly equities, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 showing signs of weakness, hovering around 21.2K and 5.9K, respectively.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have plummeted by 94%, dropping to $52.9m from $987m. BlackRock's IBIT stood out as the sole BTC ETF to record a significant inflow of $596.11m, while ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB led outflows, with $212.55m exiting the fund.
All eyes are on this week's FOMC and NFP releases, which are expected to further influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. With market anticipation building, we believe Bitcoin's pullback is merely a pause, setting the stage for a bullish rally as Trump's inauguration fuels optimism.
Bitcoin has retraced to the $95K support level following hotter-than-expected US job data. JOLTS job openings surged to 8.1 million, surpassing the 7.74 million forecast. The unexpected strength in the labor market fueled risk-off sentiment, triggering a sell-off in risky assets as long-term bond yields spiked.
Bitcoin's sharp price drop resulted in approximately $206 million in liquidations within an hour. The risk-off ripple effects extended across other financial markets, particularly equities, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 showing signs of weakness, hovering around 21.2K and 5.9K, respectively.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have plummeted by 94%, dropping to $52.9m from $987m. BlackRock's IBIT stood out as the sole BTC ETF to record a significant inflow of $596.11m, while ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB led outflows, with $212.55m exiting the fund.
All eyes are on this week's FOMC and NFP releases, which are expected to further influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. With market anticipation building, we believe Bitcoin's pullback is merely a pause, setting the stage for a bullish rally as Trump's inauguration fuels optimism.
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QCP Asia Colour – 9 January 25
BTC rebounded last night to $95.2K after successfully retesting the $92.5K key support. However, the outlook for BTC remains bearish during early Asia session today after news of US government selling their stash of seized Silk Road BTC broke out.
Crypto prices continue to be weighed down by macro headwinds, as last night’s Fed Minutes revealed an increasingly hawkish stance. The Fed indicated that they will slow down the pace of rate cuts given that the risks of inflation have increased. Yesterday’s ADP employment survey also added to macro uncertainty, showing a slowdown in both private sector hiring and wage gains. This heavily contrasted with Tuesday’s JOLTS jobs openings which painted a stronger labour market.
On the options front, the curve has steepened across all tenors with Mar-Jun spread widening by 1.5 vols, and Jun-Dec spread rising above 1 vol. The desk continues to observe selling pressure on front-end vols with 17Jan ATM options priced 3 vols lower from last night.
With US markets closed today, we expect prices to remain weak as BTC consolidates between $92K and $95K. A break below $92K could bring the $90K figure into view.
BTC rebounded last night to $95.2K after successfully retesting the $92.5K key support. However, the outlook for BTC remains bearish during early Asia session today after news of US government selling their stash of seized Silk Road BTC broke out.
Crypto prices continue to be weighed down by macro headwinds, as last night’s Fed Minutes revealed an increasingly hawkish stance. The Fed indicated that they will slow down the pace of rate cuts given that the risks of inflation have increased. Yesterday’s ADP employment survey also added to macro uncertainty, showing a slowdown in both private sector hiring and wage gains. This heavily contrasted with Tuesday’s JOLTS jobs openings which painted a stronger labour market.
On the options front, the curve has steepened across all tenors with Mar-Jun spread widening by 1.5 vols, and Jun-Dec spread rising above 1 vol. The desk continues to observe selling pressure on front-end vols with 17Jan ATM options priced 3 vols lower from last night.
With US markets closed today, we expect prices to remain weak as BTC consolidates between $92K and $95K. A break below $92K could bring the $90K figure into view.
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QCP Asia Colour – 13 January 25
Is inflation back? The US economy is certainly showing signs of overheating with Friday's scorching NFP print of 256k, obliterating the forecasted 164k. After last week's macro data, rumors of any imminent rate cuts have gone up in smoke as equities have tumbled lower. Potential Trump-era tariffs have also ignited more inflation fears.
Despite the macro headwinds and lingering Silkroad fud, crypto seems to have found some footing as $91k and $3100 supports still remain intact for now. Implied vols are also at relatively modest levels and drifting lower, with only a slight Put skew on the frontend persisting until after Trump's inauguration.
Although the vol market hasn't reacted much, crypto isn't out of the woods just yet. The macro storm cloud still looms with PPI (14 Jan), CPI (15 Jan) and Unemployment Claims (16 Jan) on the horizon, potentially adding fuel to the fire. As the US economy heats up, this week could be a real test for crypto to step up as an inflation hedge
Is inflation back? The US economy is certainly showing signs of overheating with Friday's scorching NFP print of 256k, obliterating the forecasted 164k. After last week's macro data, rumors of any imminent rate cuts have gone up in smoke as equities have tumbled lower. Potential Trump-era tariffs have also ignited more inflation fears.
Despite the macro headwinds and lingering Silkroad fud, crypto seems to have found some footing as $91k and $3100 supports still remain intact for now. Implied vols are also at relatively modest levels and drifting lower, with only a slight Put skew on the frontend persisting until after Trump's inauguration.
Although the vol market hasn't reacted much, crypto isn't out of the woods just yet. The macro storm cloud still looms with PPI (14 Jan), CPI (15 Jan) and Unemployment Claims (16 Jan) on the horizon, potentially adding fuel to the fire. As the US economy heats up, this week could be a real test for crypto to step up as an inflation hedge
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QCP Asia Colour – 14 January 25
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
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QCP Asia Colour – 15 January 25
We're less than a week away from the inauguration of the 47th US President, Donald J. Trump. In a manner reminiscent of 2017, Trump has found a way to shake global markets even before officially taking office on 20th January.
Inflationary fears continue to spook the US market. The US job market remains robust as NFP surprised higher last week (+256k v +165k exp.). While CPI appears to be moderating above the 2% target and despite PPI coming cooler, market participants still expect December's CPI to come in higher than the previous reading.
Trump has widely publicized plans to impose tariffs on trading partners, mainly China, driving inflationary fears higher. Contrary to expectations of blanket tariffs from the outset, it now appears the new administration will gradually introduce tariffs on selected imports.
Plagued by the specter of inflation, bond yields have started to creep higher once again. Markets are now pricing only two cuts in 2025 and 2026 (the latest Fed Dot Plot had projected four), and the 10y and 30y US Treasury yields are approaching the 5% level.
As Treasury yields headed higher, equity markets suffered a scare as the S&P500 threatened to break below $5800. BTC followed suit, dropping briefly below $90k.
The macroeconomic environment doesn't look conducive for risk assets right now given the recent developments. However, one bright spot is that Trump's actual policies often differ significantly from his public rhetoric. Inflationary fears may not materialize as severely as markets anticipate.
For crypto, the Trump administration features crypto friendly personnel. Rumours that Trump will enact wide-ranging and crypto-friendly executive orders provide a short term tailwind, potentially supporting prices.
Expect heightened volatility before and after the inauguration as markets digest and adjust to a new term under Trump. We maintain cautious of the downside as the $90k level in BTC has been tested numerous times. Equity markets also appear fragile, and with bond yields globally moving higher, it can spell messy and gappy moves all around.
We're less than a week away from the inauguration of the 47th US President, Donald J. Trump. In a manner reminiscent of 2017, Trump has found a way to shake global markets even before officially taking office on 20th January.
Inflationary fears continue to spook the US market. The US job market remains robust as NFP surprised higher last week (+256k v +165k exp.). While CPI appears to be moderating above the 2% target and despite PPI coming cooler, market participants still expect December's CPI to come in higher than the previous reading.
Trump has widely publicized plans to impose tariffs on trading partners, mainly China, driving inflationary fears higher. Contrary to expectations of blanket tariffs from the outset, it now appears the new administration will gradually introduce tariffs on selected imports.
Plagued by the specter of inflation, bond yields have started to creep higher once again. Markets are now pricing only two cuts in 2025 and 2026 (the latest Fed Dot Plot had projected four), and the 10y and 30y US Treasury yields are approaching the 5% level.
As Treasury yields headed higher, equity markets suffered a scare as the S&P500 threatened to break below $5800. BTC followed suit, dropping briefly below $90k.
The macroeconomic environment doesn't look conducive for risk assets right now given the recent developments. However, one bright spot is that Trump's actual policies often differ significantly from his public rhetoric. Inflationary fears may not materialize as severely as markets anticipate.
For crypto, the Trump administration features crypto friendly personnel. Rumours that Trump will enact wide-ranging and crypto-friendly executive orders provide a short term tailwind, potentially supporting prices.
Expect heightened volatility before and after the inauguration as markets digest and adjust to a new term under Trump. We maintain cautious of the downside as the $90k level in BTC has been tested numerous times. Equity markets also appear fragile, and with bond yields globally moving higher, it can spell messy and gappy moves all around.
👍32❤6🔥4🫡1
QCP Asia Colour – 16 January 25
Global markets rallied last night after a weaker-than-expected CPI report eased fears of rising inflation. BTC jumped 4.13% to a high of $100.8K before stabilising just below the $100K milestone. The same level of optimism was also seen in equities as S&P 500 rose 1.83% and Nasdaq gained 2.27%.
Both BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced healthy inflows yesterday with BTC spot ETFs recording a staggering $723.20 million worth of inflows. The swift recovery in inflows reflects strong institutional demand and suggests an exciting outlook for crypto.
On the options front, BTC JAN calls dominated the market yesterday as traders adopted an increasingly bullish view, snapping up contracts with strikes ranging from $100K to $110K. This is a promising sign as we head into March which currently holds the highest concentration of open interest at the $120K strike. Given all this buzz, could altcoin season be around the corner?
With BTC dominance plummeting from 58.6% to 57.4%, altcoins are expected to outperform as profits rotate into ETH and other altcoins. For confirmation of altcoin season, BTC dominance will need to break below the support at 57.3% while hovering around the 100K milestone.
Global markets rallied last night after a weaker-than-expected CPI report eased fears of rising inflation. BTC jumped 4.13% to a high of $100.8K before stabilising just below the $100K milestone. The same level of optimism was also seen in equities as S&P 500 rose 1.83% and Nasdaq gained 2.27%.
Both BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced healthy inflows yesterday with BTC spot ETFs recording a staggering $723.20 million worth of inflows. The swift recovery in inflows reflects strong institutional demand and suggests an exciting outlook for crypto.
On the options front, BTC JAN calls dominated the market yesterday as traders adopted an increasingly bullish view, snapping up contracts with strikes ranging from $100K to $110K. This is a promising sign as we head into March which currently holds the highest concentration of open interest at the $120K strike. Given all this buzz, could altcoin season be around the corner?
With BTC dominance plummeting from 58.6% to 57.4%, altcoins are expected to outperform as profits rotate into ETH and other altcoins. For confirmation of altcoin season, BTC dominance will need to break below the support at 57.3% while hovering around the 100K milestone.
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QCP Asia Colour – 20 January 25
It's inauguration day and in the lead up to today, the incoming leader of the free world launched a market-leading coin with a valuation exceeding $10B, named after himself. The global reach and speed at which $TRUMP surged signal a paradigm shift in capital formation as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream.
Could this be the catalyst that drives the anticipated alt-coin season? Launching $TRUMP on SOL proves to be a significant endorsement of the chain, making it plausible that the SOL ETF could gain approval much earlier than expected. With increased media exposure from similar launches, retail inflows are likely to come streaming in.
Apart from memecoins, BTC appears poised to break higher with funding exceeding 65% on Deribit. Saylor added fuel to speculation with a tweet yesterday, sharing his trademark "Saylor Tracker" which usually signals another round of buying, and a cryptic message, "Things will be different tomorrow", creating additional suspense on Trump's Day 1.
The launch of Trump's memecoin appeals not only to the retail memecoin moonshot masses, but also to major institutions as it solidifies the president's pro-crypto stance. This week, institutional investors are on the edge of their seats, awaiting concrete pro-crypto policies that could significantly influence the future of the economy. The global ripple effects of this clear US "green light" for crypto adoption have yet to fully materialize.
It's inauguration day and in the lead up to today, the incoming leader of the free world launched a market-leading coin with a valuation exceeding $10B, named after himself. The global reach and speed at which $TRUMP surged signal a paradigm shift in capital formation as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream.
Could this be the catalyst that drives the anticipated alt-coin season? Launching $TRUMP on SOL proves to be a significant endorsement of the chain, making it plausible that the SOL ETF could gain approval much earlier than expected. With increased media exposure from similar launches, retail inflows are likely to come streaming in.
Apart from memecoins, BTC appears poised to break higher with funding exceeding 65% on Deribit. Saylor added fuel to speculation with a tweet yesterday, sharing his trademark "Saylor Tracker" which usually signals another round of buying, and a cryptic message, "Things will be different tomorrow", creating additional suspense on Trump's Day 1.
The launch of Trump's memecoin appeals not only to the retail memecoin moonshot masses, but also to major institutions as it solidifies the president's pro-crypto stance. This week, institutional investors are on the edge of their seats, awaiting concrete pro-crypto policies that could significantly influence the future of the economy. The global ripple effects of this clear US "green light" for crypto adoption have yet to fully materialize.
👍31❤13🍾5
QCP Asia Colour – 21 January 25
Amid ceremonial cannon fire and a star-studded Capitol Hill, Trump’s inauguration sparked speculation about crypto-related executive orders. Sentiment drove volatility buyers to push front-end vols significantly higher, creating massive vol-of-vol, with Friday expiry trading in a 25v range over 24 hours.
When Trump’s speech failed to mention crypto, the sell-off was gradual but still significant, wiping out $816 million in long positions. The BTC vols curve remains firm at the front end, holding in backwardation.
Markets received a stark reminder of life under President Trump, with more volatility-inducing rhetoric. His threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canada and Mexico is a case in point.
Crypto Outlook
While markets await Trump’s move on a potential national strategic Bitcoin stockpile, states are acting independently. According to Bloomberg, eight states, including Texas and Massachusetts, have proposed crypto reserves, with five more poised to follow.
More short term volatility likely looms for BTC which explains the elevated front-end vols, especially with MicroStrategy shareholders set to vote at 10 a.m. NY time on authorizing a substantial increase in share count.
Amid ceremonial cannon fire and a star-studded Capitol Hill, Trump’s inauguration sparked speculation about crypto-related executive orders. Sentiment drove volatility buyers to push front-end vols significantly higher, creating massive vol-of-vol, with Friday expiry trading in a 25v range over 24 hours.
When Trump’s speech failed to mention crypto, the sell-off was gradual but still significant, wiping out $816 million in long positions. The BTC vols curve remains firm at the front end, holding in backwardation.
Markets received a stark reminder of life under President Trump, with more volatility-inducing rhetoric. His threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canada and Mexico is a case in point.
Crypto Outlook
While markets await Trump’s move on a potential national strategic Bitcoin stockpile, states are acting independently. According to Bloomberg, eight states, including Texas and Massachusetts, have proposed crypto reserves, with five more poised to follow.
More short term volatility likely looms for BTC which explains the elevated front-end vols, especially with MicroStrategy shareholders set to vote at 10 a.m. NY time on authorizing a substantial increase in share count.
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We’re expanding your trading options!
In addition to SGD and USD, we now offer EUR, HKD, and GBP for Spot and Stablecoin trading. With fast settlements, immediate delivery, and partnerships with trusted banks such as DBS, Standard Chartered, Bank Frick, Customers Bank, GLDB, and Pave Bank you can trade with confidence.
Reach out to our desk today for indicative pricing and more details.
In addition to SGD and USD, we now offer EUR, HKD, and GBP for Spot and Stablecoin trading. With fast settlements, immediate delivery, and partnerships with trusted banks such as DBS, Standard Chartered, Bank Frick, Customers Bank, GLDB, and Pave Bank you can trade with confidence.
Reach out to our desk today for indicative pricing and more details.
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QCP Asia Colour – 22 January 25
Finally! The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new leadership has introduced a task force dedicated to developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets. Spearheaded by "Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce, this initiative promises to be a game-changer for the digital asset space.
Shaking off the initial disappointment from Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin has rebounded by 3.8%, stabilizing around the $105k range. However, its upside remains capped as the market stays cautious, wary of Trump’s tendency to overpromise and underdeliver ahead of any crypto-related executive orders. Will these long-awaited actions finally align with expectations?
Meanwhile, BTC futures continue to trend upward, especially on the front end, as market's net-long exposure from last week remains solid. Bullish bets currently outpace bearish ones by a ratio of approximately 20:1.
What else?
MicroStrategy and its shareholders just can't get enough Bitcoin! The shareholders have approved a major increase in the number of authorized Class A common and preferred shares, raising the total authorized shares from 330 million to a staggering 10.3 billion. This expansion significantly boosts the company’s equity base, enabling MicroStrategy to surpass share volumes of nearly all Nasdaq 100 Index leaders, excluding Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.
With plans to raise $42 billion in capital through equity and convertible note offerings by 2027, MicroStrategy still has $5.42 billion in equity offerings remaining, doubling down on its commitment to Bitcoin.
Finally! The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new leadership has introduced a task force dedicated to developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets. Spearheaded by "Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce, this initiative promises to be a game-changer for the digital asset space.
Shaking off the initial disappointment from Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin has rebounded by 3.8%, stabilizing around the $105k range. However, its upside remains capped as the market stays cautious, wary of Trump’s tendency to overpromise and underdeliver ahead of any crypto-related executive orders. Will these long-awaited actions finally align with expectations?
Meanwhile, BTC futures continue to trend upward, especially on the front end, as market's net-long exposure from last week remains solid. Bullish bets currently outpace bearish ones by a ratio of approximately 20:1.
What else?
MicroStrategy and its shareholders just can't get enough Bitcoin! The shareholders have approved a major increase in the number of authorized Class A common and preferred shares, raising the total authorized shares from 330 million to a staggering 10.3 billion. This expansion significantly boosts the company’s equity base, enabling MicroStrategy to surpass share volumes of nearly all Nasdaq 100 Index leaders, excluding Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.
With plans to raise $42 billion in capital through equity and convertible note offerings by 2027, MicroStrategy still has $5.42 billion in equity offerings remaining, doubling down on its commitment to Bitcoin.
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QCP Asia Colour – 23 January 25
Is this the calm before an impending storm? The market continues to grind lower even after the SEC announced the establishment of a Crypto Regulatory Task Force. BTC has broken below $106K and is currently hanging by a thread around the $102K level.
XRP and SOL jumped 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively, after a screenshot of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) webpage offering XRP and SOL futures appeared on X. While CME later clarified that the leaked webpage was an error and no decision had been made regarding XRP or SOL futures contracts, the creation of such a webpage strongly suggests that the launch of these contracts is drawing closer.
On the options front, the desk observed growing interest in the Jan $95K strikes as the market scrambled for downside protection after BTC lost momentum during yesterday's US session. This stood in stark contrast to the bullish market sentiment observed earlier in the day, when traders were gradually building topside positions during the Asia and London hours. With no major catalysts before next week’s FOMC meeting, the market is likely to remain range-bound until there is more clarity on how the recent weak CPI reading has influenced the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.
Is this the calm before an impending storm? The market continues to grind lower even after the SEC announced the establishment of a Crypto Regulatory Task Force. BTC has broken below $106K and is currently hanging by a thread around the $102K level.
XRP and SOL jumped 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively, after a screenshot of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) webpage offering XRP and SOL futures appeared on X. While CME later clarified that the leaked webpage was an error and no decision had been made regarding XRP or SOL futures contracts, the creation of such a webpage strongly suggests that the launch of these contracts is drawing closer.
On the options front, the desk observed growing interest in the Jan $95K strikes as the market scrambled for downside protection after BTC lost momentum during yesterday's US session. This stood in stark contrast to the bullish market sentiment observed earlier in the day, when traders were gradually building topside positions during the Asia and London hours. With no major catalysts before next week’s FOMC meeting, the market is likely to remain range-bound until there is more clarity on how the recent weak CPI reading has influenced the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.
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QCP Asia Colour – 27 January 25
A week into Trump's presidency and BTC dipped back below $100k, along with other risk assets, as news of China's Deepseek continue to spread from the weekend. The Chinese LLM poses a potential threat to US equity markets by disrupting US AI dominance with their cost efficiency and groundbreaking open-source technology.
Now the question is how will Trump retaliate? Trump has already successfully used the tariff card, forcing Colombia to accept deported migrants. We'll have to wait and see what drastic measures his administration might take to save the US equity market.
As for BTC, we do not foresee a break higher without confirmation on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The Trump administration's evaluation for a 'national digital asset stockpile' was not enough to sustain bullishness in the market, at least in the near term. Risk reversals remain skewed in favor of Calls only from March onwards, indicating that the market is not expecting much until quarter-end. However with China's Deepseek threatening the US market, we wouldn't be surprised if Trump attempts to step in and play hero.
Friday vols and VIX continue to be elevated as the market precariously anticipates FOMC this Thursday (30 Jan). Despite today's move and regardless of the outcome on Thursday, BTC should remain relatively resilient as it continues to trade in this familiar range.
A week into Trump's presidency and BTC dipped back below $100k, along with other risk assets, as news of China's Deepseek continue to spread from the weekend. The Chinese LLM poses a potential threat to US equity markets by disrupting US AI dominance with their cost efficiency and groundbreaking open-source technology.
Now the question is how will Trump retaliate? Trump has already successfully used the tariff card, forcing Colombia to accept deported migrants. We'll have to wait and see what drastic measures his administration might take to save the US equity market.
As for BTC, we do not foresee a break higher without confirmation on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The Trump administration's evaluation for a 'national digital asset stockpile' was not enough to sustain bullishness in the market, at least in the near term. Risk reversals remain skewed in favor of Calls only from March onwards, indicating that the market is not expecting much until quarter-end. However with China's Deepseek threatening the US market, we wouldn't be surprised if Trump attempts to step in and play hero.
Friday vols and VIX continue to be elevated as the market precariously anticipates FOMC this Thursday (30 Jan). Despite today's move and regardless of the outcome on Thursday, BTC should remain relatively resilient as it continues to trade in this familiar range.
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QCP Asia Colour – 28 January 25
And... breathe. DeepSeek is still dominating the App Store charts. Its latest AI release sent shockwaves through Wall Street and risk-on assets yesterday, with the NASDAQ closing 3% lower and NVIDIA plunging an astonishing 17%.
The AI mania that defined 2024 pushed NASDAQ valuations to unsustainable levels, trading at nearly 27x forward earnings. However, 2025 presents a new set of challenges to that narrative, with uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s rate path, Trump’s policies, and this week’s upcoming tech earnings poised to add downside risk to risk-on assets.
Crypto-linked equities weren’t spared, with Core Scientific plunging 29% and miners like Hut 8, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining also slid. This decline reflects their growing integration with AI, as many are repurposing mining facilities into higher-tier data centers for high-performance computing.
This move appears driven more by risk-off sentiment than crypto-specific factors. BTC has found some support since our last broadcast and is stabilizing above $102k, with skew favoring calls over puts. This week could test whether BTC’s correlation with equities weakens, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support.
As we approach the Year of the Snake, the market’s twists and turns remind us of the wisdom, adaptability, and resilience this zodiac symbolizes - qualities that will be essential as we navigate 2025’s challenges and opportunities. Wishing everyone prosperity and success in the year ahead!
And... breathe. DeepSeek is still dominating the App Store charts. Its latest AI release sent shockwaves through Wall Street and risk-on assets yesterday, with the NASDAQ closing 3% lower and NVIDIA plunging an astonishing 17%.
The AI mania that defined 2024 pushed NASDAQ valuations to unsustainable levels, trading at nearly 27x forward earnings. However, 2025 presents a new set of challenges to that narrative, with uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s rate path, Trump’s policies, and this week’s upcoming tech earnings poised to add downside risk to risk-on assets.
Crypto-linked equities weren’t spared, with Core Scientific plunging 29% and miners like Hut 8, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining also slid. This decline reflects their growing integration with AI, as many are repurposing mining facilities into higher-tier data centers for high-performance computing.
This move appears driven more by risk-off sentiment than crypto-specific factors. BTC has found some support since our last broadcast and is stabilizing above $102k, with skew favoring calls over puts. This week could test whether BTC’s correlation with equities weakens, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support.
As we approach the Year of the Snake, the market’s twists and turns remind us of the wisdom, adaptability, and resilience this zodiac symbolizes - qualities that will be essential as we navigate 2025’s challenges and opportunities. Wishing everyone prosperity and success in the year ahead!
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QCP Asia Colour – 3 February 25
Trump went all-in on his first hand.
The White House slapped a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 10% levy on China. Canada retaliated with its own 25% tariff on $106 billion of U.S. goods, with Mexico expected to follow suit.
Treasury yields bear-flattened—2-year yield rose while10-year yields fell—signaling short-term inflation fears and long-term trade war risks weighing on global growth.
The widening basis between NY and London gold suggests not just an unwinding of popular EFP carry trades but also potential logistical challenges in moving gold between vaults—a reminder of the uncertainty around how far tariffs might extend.
Equities sank across regions, gold dipped, oil spiked, and crypto sold off violently. Acting as a risk proxy before U.S. markets opened, crypto saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH hit harder than BTC.
This decorrelation reinforces the view that today’s risk-off move is driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single-asset event. Expect continued volatility as Trump prepares to negotiate with Canada and Mexico tonight, while claiming tariffs on the EU are "definitely happening."
Trump went all-in on his first hand.
The White House slapped a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 10% levy on China. Canada retaliated with its own 25% tariff on $106 billion of U.S. goods, with Mexico expected to follow suit.
Treasury yields bear-flattened—2-year yield rose while10-year yields fell—signaling short-term inflation fears and long-term trade war risks weighing on global growth.
The widening basis between NY and London gold suggests not just an unwinding of popular EFP carry trades but also potential logistical challenges in moving gold between vaults—a reminder of the uncertainty around how far tariffs might extend.
Equities sank across regions, gold dipped, oil spiked, and crypto sold off violently. Acting as a risk proxy before U.S. markets opened, crypto saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH hit harder than BTC.
This decorrelation reinforces the view that today’s risk-off move is driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single-asset event. Expect continued volatility as Trump prepares to negotiate with Canada and Mexico tonight, while claiming tariffs on the EU are "definitely happening."
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