QCP Asia Colour - 17 October 24
• BTC rallied 2.20% yesterday evening on the back of strong spot demand, briefly reclaiming the $68,000 handle before stabilising in the $67,000 region.
• The desk saw heavy buying on long-dated 28 Mar options during US trading hours, with 600 contracts at 120k strike. This signifies that optimistic, long-shot buyers are returning amid this rally.
• BTC spot ETF added $456.90 million yesterday, extending to a 4-day winning streak. The strong and growing inflows may be a leading indicator of further rallies as BTC heads back to its all-time-high of $73,790.
• While the US election is the next key catalyst for BTC and crypto, markets remain uncertain as to where BTC will go post election. Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.
Trade Idea
QCP's Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) was triggered last night, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility. Given the bullish outlook and spike in volatility, we prefer a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on upside convexity with zero downside.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80,000
Barrier: 90,000
Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD
Spot Ref: 67,150
• BTC rallied 2.20% yesterday evening on the back of strong spot demand, briefly reclaiming the $68,000 handle before stabilising in the $67,000 region.
• The desk saw heavy buying on long-dated 28 Mar options during US trading hours, with 600 contracts at 120k strike. This signifies that optimistic, long-shot buyers are returning amid this rally.
• BTC spot ETF added $456.90 million yesterday, extending to a 4-day winning streak. The strong and growing inflows may be a leading indicator of further rallies as BTC heads back to its all-time-high of $73,790.
• While the US election is the next key catalyst for BTC and crypto, markets remain uncertain as to where BTC will go post election. Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.
Trade Idea
QCP's Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) was triggered last night, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility. Given the bullish outlook and spike in volatility, we prefer a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on upside convexity with zero downside.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80,000
Barrier: 90,000
Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD
Spot Ref: 67,150
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QCP Weekend Summary – 19 Oct 24
This week was an exciting one for crypto. BTC rallied 10.48% to a high of 69,000, bringing the 70,000 psychological level into view. Without any key macro data serving as headwinds next week, will this rally continue?
BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week. It closed on Friday with $203.3 million in inflows and a 6-day winning streak. The consistent inflows into the ETF highlight that institutional demand remains strong. With this morning’s approval by the SEC’s approval for BTC ETF options to be listed on the NYSE, we believe this will provide the ETF with the needed liquidity to attract sustainable inflows.
Bitcoin dominance is currently at a multiyear high of 58%, a level last seen in April 2021. As it approaches key resistance at 60%, we believe this will set the stage for a strong recovery of L1 coins.
In Japan, inflation remains weak with headline inflation at 2.5%, down from 3.0%. Market expectations indicate that the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, contributing to a rally in USD/JPY, which is currently below 150.
With US equities close to all-time highs and the Japanese yen on a fresh weakening trend, risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative.
Trade Idea
With BTC being only 7.9% away from its all-time-high, ETH is long overdue for a strong recovery (45% below its all-time-high). As such, we favour trades with good topside convexity. With the forward basis also moving higher, the payoffs are likely to become more attractive.
ETH PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Max Payout: 88.16%
Strike: 3,600 ETH/USD
Barrier: 4,200 ETH/USD
Get paid up to 88.16% p.a. if ETH expires just below 4,200 at expiry.
Profit Booster
Squeeze out an additional 2.8% profit
Sell BTC for 72k if BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 25-Oct.
Cost: Zero
Spot Ref:
68,360 BTC/USD
2,640 ETH/USD
This week was an exciting one for crypto. BTC rallied 10.48% to a high of 69,000, bringing the 70,000 psychological level into view. Without any key macro data serving as headwinds next week, will this rally continue?
BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week. It closed on Friday with $203.3 million in inflows and a 6-day winning streak. The consistent inflows into the ETF highlight that institutional demand remains strong. With this morning’s approval by the SEC’s approval for BTC ETF options to be listed on the NYSE, we believe this will provide the ETF with the needed liquidity to attract sustainable inflows.
Bitcoin dominance is currently at a multiyear high of 58%, a level last seen in April 2021. As it approaches key resistance at 60%, we believe this will set the stage for a strong recovery of L1 coins.
In Japan, inflation remains weak with headline inflation at 2.5%, down from 3.0%. Market expectations indicate that the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, contributing to a rally in USD/JPY, which is currently below 150.
With US equities close to all-time highs and the Japanese yen on a fresh weakening trend, risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative.
Trade Idea
With BTC being only 7.9% away from its all-time-high, ETH is long overdue for a strong recovery (45% below its all-time-high). As such, we favour trades with good topside convexity. With the forward basis also moving higher, the payoffs are likely to become more attractive.
ETH PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Max Payout: 88.16%
Strike: 3,600 ETH/USD
Barrier: 4,200 ETH/USD
Get paid up to 88.16% p.a. if ETH expires just below 4,200 at expiry.
Profit Booster
Squeeze out an additional 2.8% profit
Sell BTC for 72k if BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 25-Oct.
Cost: Zero
Spot Ref:
68,360 BTC/USD
2,640 ETH/USD
👍7❤5🔥1
QCP Asia Colour - 21 Oct 24
- ETH played catch up to BTC over the weekend, as it rallied 2% during low liquidity hours on Sunday. Even though ETH outperformed BTC last week (11% gain vs 9.6%), it's still lagging behind BTC this Uptober (4% vs 8%).
- Both BTC and ETH have yet to clear July highs but are closing in on key 70k and 2800 resistance levels. A break above these levels is likely to attract massive retail attention. With the US elections just 15 days away and equities looking strong, the market is definitely optimistic as Risk Reversals have flipped in favour of Calls across all tenors.
- However with no major catalysts this week, we expect crypto to chop around these levels as it attempts to break higher. In terms of macro data, we only have PMI numbers on Thursday (24 Oct) where the market will look for some reassurance if the Fed will remain on their rate cut path.
Trade Idea
With ETH's surprise rally over the weekend, we definitely can't rule out another break higher. A break above 2800, could send ETH above 3000.
Trade the Uptober ETH Breakout with an ETH Call DIGI (3k 25-OCT)
Payout: 10x
(spot ref: 2700)
- ETH played catch up to BTC over the weekend, as it rallied 2% during low liquidity hours on Sunday. Even though ETH outperformed BTC last week (11% gain vs 9.6%), it's still lagging behind BTC this Uptober (4% vs 8%).
- Both BTC and ETH have yet to clear July highs but are closing in on key 70k and 2800 resistance levels. A break above these levels is likely to attract massive retail attention. With the US elections just 15 days away and equities looking strong, the market is definitely optimistic as Risk Reversals have flipped in favour of Calls across all tenors.
- However with no major catalysts this week, we expect crypto to chop around these levels as it attempts to break higher. In terms of macro data, we only have PMI numbers on Thursday (24 Oct) where the market will look for some reassurance if the Fed will remain on their rate cut path.
Trade Idea
With ETH's surprise rally over the weekend, we definitely can't rule out another break higher. A break above 2800, could send ETH above 3000.
Trade the Uptober ETH Breakout with an ETH Call DIGI (3k 25-OCT)
Payout: 10x
(spot ref: 2700)
❤🔥7❤2
QCP Asia Colour - 22 Oct 24
- Short-term implied volatility is peaking at election day expiry, with a 10-vol spread over the prior expiry and skews favouring calls over puts, despite BTC being about 8% below its all-time highs
- Meanwhile, the equities market presents a different picture. The S&P 500 is at record highs, with 20% of companies set to report earnings. The options market is skewed toward put protection, pricing in a potential 1.8% move in the index on November 6th, the day after the election.
- The equities-crypto correlation is at a historically high 0.83. Given its tendency to mean revert and differing option market positioning, this could signal a tipping point.
- The election creates a zero-sum scenario for equities, with sector winners dependent on the outcome. In contrast, both candidates are more crypto-friendly than the previous administration, so any weakness in equities may prompt capital to reallocate to crypto.
Trade Idea
Trump's speech in Nashville pushed IV to 85%, compared to the current 55% for the election expiry. This suggests an opportunity to deploy into long volatility trades, as potential delays in the election outcome (e.g. recount) could lead to sharp market swings.
BTC ERKO Strangle (8-Nov)
Max Payout: 6.99x or $10,000 per BTC if spot is just below 85,000 or just above 50,000 at expiry.
Cost: USD 1,430 per
Upside ERKO: Strike 75k, Barrier 85k
Downside ERKO: Strike 60k, Barrier 50k
Spot Ref: 67,700
- Short-term implied volatility is peaking at election day expiry, with a 10-vol spread over the prior expiry and skews favouring calls over puts, despite BTC being about 8% below its all-time highs
- Meanwhile, the equities market presents a different picture. The S&P 500 is at record highs, with 20% of companies set to report earnings. The options market is skewed toward put protection, pricing in a potential 1.8% move in the index on November 6th, the day after the election.
- The equities-crypto correlation is at a historically high 0.83. Given its tendency to mean revert and differing option market positioning, this could signal a tipping point.
- The election creates a zero-sum scenario for equities, with sector winners dependent on the outcome. In contrast, both candidates are more crypto-friendly than the previous administration, so any weakness in equities may prompt capital to reallocate to crypto.
Trade Idea
Trump's speech in Nashville pushed IV to 85%, compared to the current 55% for the election expiry. This suggests an opportunity to deploy into long volatility trades, as potential delays in the election outcome (e.g. recount) could lead to sharp market swings.
BTC ERKO Strangle (8-Nov)
Max Payout: 6.99x or $10,000 per BTC if spot is just below 85,000 or just above 50,000 at expiry.
Cost: USD 1,430 per
Upside ERKO: Strike 75k, Barrier 85k
Downside ERKO: Strike 60k, Barrier 50k
Spot Ref: 67,700
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QCP Asia Colour - 23 Oct 24
The US elections are the event of the moment, with just 2 weeks to go. Trump has started to extend his lead over Kamala in betting markets, and key swing states are now polling Republican. Markets are now pricing in a potential Trump presidency. Talks of increased tariffs and tax reductions are causing the USD to rally and US bond yields to head higher. Given Trump's more crypto-friendly stance, it's no surprise that BTC is trading higher as well.
The S&P 500 continues to push for all-time highs and US 2Y Treasuries yields have broken above 4% again. BTC has made a move towards 69k on the back of a record high in open interest across exchanges. Total futures open interest on exchanges now sit at $40.5 billion.
The market is now pricing 1.5 rate cuts in 2024. The stronger-than-expected labor market and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have brought back hope that growth in the US will remain strong.
All eyes are on the NFP release next Friday as uncertainty around the labor market persists. As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Fed's next move on interest rates.
Trade Idea
BTC and ETH remain well-supported with potential upside, ahead of the job data release and the elections. In this bullish yet volatile environment, we recommend a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capture upside potential while offering protection against downside risk.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80,000
Barrier: 90,000
Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD
Spot Ref: 67,150
The US elections are the event of the moment, with just 2 weeks to go. Trump has started to extend his lead over Kamala in betting markets, and key swing states are now polling Republican. Markets are now pricing in a potential Trump presidency. Talks of increased tariffs and tax reductions are causing the USD to rally and US bond yields to head higher. Given Trump's more crypto-friendly stance, it's no surprise that BTC is trading higher as well.
The S&P 500 continues to push for all-time highs and US 2Y Treasuries yields have broken above 4% again. BTC has made a move towards 69k on the back of a record high in open interest across exchanges. Total futures open interest on exchanges now sit at $40.5 billion.
The market is now pricing 1.5 rate cuts in 2024. The stronger-than-expected labor market and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have brought back hope that growth in the US will remain strong.
All eyes are on the NFP release next Friday as uncertainty around the labor market persists. As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Fed's next move on interest rates.
Trade Idea
BTC and ETH remain well-supported with potential upside, ahead of the job data release and the elections. In this bullish yet volatile environment, we recommend a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capture upside potential while offering protection against downside risk.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80,000
Barrier: 90,000
Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD
Spot Ref: 67,150
❤10👍6🤯1
QCP Weekend Brief – 27 Oct 2024
This week was relatively volatile one for the crypto market. BTC retested the local top of 69,500 last seen in July but failed to break through. It eventually retraced its gains, finding support at the 65,000 mark and now appears be forming a consolidation pattern.
BTC ETF net inflows for the week amounted to $997.7 million, marking the 3rd consecutive week of positive flows, signaling robust institutional demand.
Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, reaching highs of 59.75% for the week. On the contrary, ETHBTC broke its key support at 0.03850, sliding 5.85% to a new low at 0.03625. We believe that the uptrend in bitcoin dominance is likely to persist in the near term as bitcoin approaches its ATH levels.
Reports of alleged US government investigation into Tether caused a sharp decline in the price of the USDT stablecoin. USDT tumbled to a low of 0.9965 before recovering above 0.9980s for the week. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has thus far denied these claims and it remains to be seen if the allegations are substantiated as this has not been the first time Tether has gotten under such scrutiny.
In the Middle East, tensions continue to intensify as Israel launched retaliatory strikes on Iran for the missile barrage earlier this month.
The Israeli retaliatory strikes alongside the USDT fiasco on Friday created some selling pressure in the markets, with the DJIA and S&P 500 both down 0.61% and 0.03% respectively. Crypto fell shortly after, with BTC briefly dipping to 65.5k at one point.
As the week draws to a close, the focus now is on the upcoming non-farm payroll data next Friday which will provide further insights into the Fed’s next course of action. The current odds of a 25 bps Nov rate cut now sits at a comfy 95.1%, with the market anticipating little surprise.
Trade Idea
We still favour the accumulator to load up on discounted BTC before its eventual breakout from ATH levels.
BTC Accumulator
Spot Ref: 67,000 BTCUSD
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 64,000
Upper Barrier: 74,000
Observation Frequency: Weekly
This week was relatively volatile one for the crypto market. BTC retested the local top of 69,500 last seen in July but failed to break through. It eventually retraced its gains, finding support at the 65,000 mark and now appears be forming a consolidation pattern.
BTC ETF net inflows for the week amounted to $997.7 million, marking the 3rd consecutive week of positive flows, signaling robust institutional demand.
Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, reaching highs of 59.75% for the week. On the contrary, ETHBTC broke its key support at 0.03850, sliding 5.85% to a new low at 0.03625. We believe that the uptrend in bitcoin dominance is likely to persist in the near term as bitcoin approaches its ATH levels.
Reports of alleged US government investigation into Tether caused a sharp decline in the price of the USDT stablecoin. USDT tumbled to a low of 0.9965 before recovering above 0.9980s for the week. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has thus far denied these claims and it remains to be seen if the allegations are substantiated as this has not been the first time Tether has gotten under such scrutiny.
In the Middle East, tensions continue to intensify as Israel launched retaliatory strikes on Iran for the missile barrage earlier this month.
The Israeli retaliatory strikes alongside the USDT fiasco on Friday created some selling pressure in the markets, with the DJIA and S&P 500 both down 0.61% and 0.03% respectively. Crypto fell shortly after, with BTC briefly dipping to 65.5k at one point.
As the week draws to a close, the focus now is on the upcoming non-farm payroll data next Friday which will provide further insights into the Fed’s next course of action. The current odds of a 25 bps Nov rate cut now sits at a comfy 95.1%, with the market anticipating little surprise.
Trade Idea
We still favour the accumulator to load up on discounted BTC before its eventual breakout from ATH levels.
BTC Accumulator
Spot Ref: 67,000 BTCUSD
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 64,000
Upper Barrier: 74,000
Observation Frequency: Weekly
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QCP Asia Colour - 28 Oct 24
Trump’s interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, released nearly a week before the election, has gained significant traction with over 32 million views, driving his Polymarket odds to above 66%.
Despite crypto being touted as the "Trump Trade," BTC’s correlation with Trump's odds appears to be weakening as it aims to break $70k and clear its July highs. BTC is up only 8% this "Uptober," compared to an average of 21%. If spot holds at these levels, this October would mark BTC's fourth-worst performance in the past decade.
Will BTC surpass $70k as the market anticipates next week’s election results? We remain cautious, as we do not expect any surprises in Thursday’s Core PCE numbers or Friday’s NFP data releases.
Total BTC-PERP OI across exchanges stands at $27 billion, approaching this year’s peak. A breakout above $70k could trigger new all-time highs, especially with more leveraged longs joining in.
Trade Idea
Trade the Election Breakout with a BTC Call DIGI (75k 8-NOV)
Payout: 4x
Spot ref: 68,300
Trump’s interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, released nearly a week before the election, has gained significant traction with over 32 million views, driving his Polymarket odds to above 66%.
Despite crypto being touted as the "Trump Trade," BTC’s correlation with Trump's odds appears to be weakening as it aims to break $70k and clear its July highs. BTC is up only 8% this "Uptober," compared to an average of 21%. If spot holds at these levels, this October would mark BTC's fourth-worst performance in the past decade.
Will BTC surpass $70k as the market anticipates next week’s election results? We remain cautious, as we do not expect any surprises in Thursday’s Core PCE numbers or Friday’s NFP data releases.
Total BTC-PERP OI across exchanges stands at $27 billion, approaching this year’s peak. A breakout above $70k could trigger new all-time highs, especially with more leveraged longs joining in.
Trade Idea
Trade the Election Breakout with a BTC Call DIGI (75k 8-NOV)
Payout: 4x
Spot ref: 68,300
❤16👍3👏3
QCP Asia Colour - 29 Oct 24
- Bitcoin has surged by 3.5% since our last commentary, breaking the $70k level for the first time in over seven months. This is supported by several factors, including strong spot ETF inflows of nearly $1 billion just last week.
- This euphoria has extended to crypto-related equities, with miners like Core Scientific (CROZ) up 6.2% following a Jefferies upgrade to ‘buy.’ Companies operating at the intersection of crypto and AI, such as IREN, Hut 8, Bitdeer, and TeraWulf, are outperforming as they benefit from increased AI demand and Bitcoin's recent rally.
- In addition, Emory University has become the first university endowment fund to disclose a $15 million position in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, underscoring the growing appeal of digital assets among funds with traditionally conservative mandates.
- Rising odds of a Trump victory have bolstered both stocks and Bitcoin. We believe BTC is particularly well-positioned to benefit in the medium term compared to equities. A potential Trump administration’s expansionary fiscal policies could push deficits and inflation higher, potentially tempering Fed rate cuts in 2025.
- Implied volatility for the election expiry has climbed to 64% and is likely to rise further. Although call skew has softened as BTC consolidates above the 70k level, perpetual open interest across exchanges is at a yearly high, signaling strong positioning for potential upside.
Trade Idea
Step aside, Contrarians: any dip below 70k now is likely to attract strong buying support ahead of the election. The 8Nov expiry at the 80K strike shows over $200 million in open interest. If BTC holds above 70K this week, we may be on the path to an all-time high—and potentially beyond.
BTC Election Butterfly
Expiry: 8Nov24
Buy: 1x BTC 75/80/85k Call Fly
Sell: 1x BTC 65k Put
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: $5,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 80k
Spot Ref: 71,000
- Bitcoin has surged by 3.5% since our last commentary, breaking the $70k level for the first time in over seven months. This is supported by several factors, including strong spot ETF inflows of nearly $1 billion just last week.
- This euphoria has extended to crypto-related equities, with miners like Core Scientific (CROZ) up 6.2% following a Jefferies upgrade to ‘buy.’ Companies operating at the intersection of crypto and AI, such as IREN, Hut 8, Bitdeer, and TeraWulf, are outperforming as they benefit from increased AI demand and Bitcoin's recent rally.
- In addition, Emory University has become the first university endowment fund to disclose a $15 million position in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, underscoring the growing appeal of digital assets among funds with traditionally conservative mandates.
- Rising odds of a Trump victory have bolstered both stocks and Bitcoin. We believe BTC is particularly well-positioned to benefit in the medium term compared to equities. A potential Trump administration’s expansionary fiscal policies could push deficits and inflation higher, potentially tempering Fed rate cuts in 2025.
- Implied volatility for the election expiry has climbed to 64% and is likely to rise further. Although call skew has softened as BTC consolidates above the 70k level, perpetual open interest across exchanges is at a yearly high, signaling strong positioning for potential upside.
Trade Idea
Step aside, Contrarians: any dip below 70k now is likely to attract strong buying support ahead of the election. The 8Nov expiry at the 80K strike shows over $200 million in open interest. If BTC holds above 70K this week, we may be on the path to an all-time high—and potentially beyond.
BTC Election Butterfly
Expiry: 8Nov24
Buy: 1x BTC 75/80/85k Call Fly
Sell: 1x BTC 65k Put
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: $5,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 80k
Spot Ref: 71,000
👍11❤8
QCP Asia Colour - 30 Oct 24
- The price action for Bitcoin has been nothing short of remarkable this couple of days, rising over 8% and breaking the $73k level. The robust inflow into spot ETFs, fresh monetary easing cycles across major economies, and increasing odds of victory for crypto-friendly presidential candidate Donald Trump have been positive catalysts.
- With swing states like Nevada and Pennsylvania potentially tipping the scales, Trump appears to be gaining traction in the polls. Next week will finally mark the conclusion of the presidential race. Will the "Trump Trade" continue or will there be an unexpected turn of events?
- This week’s spotlight is on Friday’s NFP report, a critical indicator of U.S. job market health, with consensus estimates around 110k — approximately half of the previous figure. As the final major data release before next Friday’s Fed meeting, the report is expected to lock in market bets for the Fed’s next move. Currently, markets are pricing in 1.6 cuts, with a 96.5% probability of a 25bps cut in November and a 75% chance of another 25bps cut in December.
- Additionally, this week includes earnings releases from five of the "Magnificent 7" stocks—Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Each is expected to post average earnings growth of around 19-20%, but surprisingly marking the slowest pace in six quarters. While the impact on equities remains uncertain, these releases will be key indicators to monitor for broader market sentiment.
- The price action for Bitcoin has been nothing short of remarkable this couple of days, rising over 8% and breaking the $73k level. The robust inflow into spot ETFs, fresh monetary easing cycles across major economies, and increasing odds of victory for crypto-friendly presidential candidate Donald Trump have been positive catalysts.
- With swing states like Nevada and Pennsylvania potentially tipping the scales, Trump appears to be gaining traction in the polls. Next week will finally mark the conclusion of the presidential race. Will the "Trump Trade" continue or will there be an unexpected turn of events?
- This week’s spotlight is on Friday’s NFP report, a critical indicator of U.S. job market health, with consensus estimates around 110k — approximately half of the previous figure. As the final major data release before next Friday’s Fed meeting, the report is expected to lock in market bets for the Fed’s next move. Currently, markets are pricing in 1.6 cuts, with a 96.5% probability of a 25bps cut in November and a 75% chance of another 25bps cut in December.
- Additionally, this week includes earnings releases from five of the "Magnificent 7" stocks—Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Each is expected to post average earnings growth of around 19-20%, but surprisingly marking the slowest pace in six quarters. While the impact on equities remains uncertain, these releases will be key indicators to monitor for broader market sentiment.
❤13👍5
QCP Weekend Summary - 2 Nov 24
Thursday's Core PCE data came in marginally higher than forecasted (2.7% YoY actual vs 2.6% YoY expected). On the contrary, Friday's NFP data delivered a downward surprise (12k actual vs 110k expected), causing the DXY to rebound and reclaim the 104 level.
Despite the weaker NFP print, US unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. The market's expectation of a 25bps November rate cut has now risen to 96.4% probability.
Equity indices closed Friday in the green after strong earnings from AMZN. US Treasury yield, which initially fell on a kneejerk reaction to NFP data, rallied to a four-month high as the market remain cautious of bond-buying into Election Week. Brent and WTI saw slight gains on reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel.
BTC teased the ATH on Tuesday night, trading to a high of 73.6k in anticipation of election week. Despite how outstanding BTC has been performing in the entire week, ETH was relatively muted, failing to break through 2.7k levels.
These came on the backdrop of strong ETF inflows, with over 2.1bn of net inflows for BTC throughout the week. BlackRock's IBIT saw 872m worth of net inflow in a singular day, the largest ever since its launch in January.
Despite Bitcoin's dip below $69,000 on Friday, we continue to see significant interest in the market, with OI for both total BTC futures and BTC options staying heightened at $40.65b and $25.3b respectively (an increase of +24.20% and +36.76% compared to the start of Oct) .
Options market is trading BTC 7 day implied vols at 74.4%, substantially higher than the past 7 day realised vols of 41.4%, indicating a significant risk premium around the elections.
What to expect on Election Week
While Trump has been favoured as the next POTUS, bets on Trump have come off significantly from a 66% high on Polymarket, to 57% for Trump and 43% for Harris. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the Elections will be another sell-the-news action, replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.
Thursday's Core PCE data came in marginally higher than forecasted (2.7% YoY actual vs 2.6% YoY expected). On the contrary, Friday's NFP data delivered a downward surprise (12k actual vs 110k expected), causing the DXY to rebound and reclaim the 104 level.
Despite the weaker NFP print, US unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. The market's expectation of a 25bps November rate cut has now risen to 96.4% probability.
Equity indices closed Friday in the green after strong earnings from AMZN. US Treasury yield, which initially fell on a kneejerk reaction to NFP data, rallied to a four-month high as the market remain cautious of bond-buying into Election Week. Brent and WTI saw slight gains on reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel.
BTC teased the ATH on Tuesday night, trading to a high of 73.6k in anticipation of election week. Despite how outstanding BTC has been performing in the entire week, ETH was relatively muted, failing to break through 2.7k levels.
These came on the backdrop of strong ETF inflows, with over 2.1bn of net inflows for BTC throughout the week. BlackRock's IBIT saw 872m worth of net inflow in a singular day, the largest ever since its launch in January.
Despite Bitcoin's dip below $69,000 on Friday, we continue to see significant interest in the market, with OI for both total BTC futures and BTC options staying heightened at $40.65b and $25.3b respectively (an increase of +24.20% and +36.76% compared to the start of Oct) .
Options market is trading BTC 7 day implied vols at 74.4%, substantially higher than the past 7 day realised vols of 41.4%, indicating a significant risk premium around the elections.
What to expect on Election Week
While Trump has been favoured as the next POTUS, bets on Trump have come off significantly from a 66% high on Polymarket, to 57% for Trump and 43% for Harris. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the Elections will be another sell-the-news action, replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.
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QCP Asia Colour - 4 Nov 24
Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race as odds on Polymarket have moved closer to actual poll estimates. Polymarket odds are still in favor of Trump at 55% but have decreased significantly from 66% a week ago.
The sideways price action over the weekend and decrease in leveraged perp positioning (from 30b to 26B across exchanges) suggest that the market remains cautious.
So, is this the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs? The options market definitely thinks so as we've seen an increase in topside positioning with substantial buying of end-Nov 75k Calls since last Friday. Election-date options positions are also rising with Friday implied vols >87 even as realized vols are at 40.
We expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week, where a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.
Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race as odds on Polymarket have moved closer to actual poll estimates. Polymarket odds are still in favor of Trump at 55% but have decreased significantly from 66% a week ago.
The sideways price action over the weekend and decrease in leveraged perp positioning (from 30b to 26B across exchanges) suggest that the market remains cautious.
So, is this the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs? The options market definitely thinks so as we've seen an increase in topside positioning with substantial buying of end-Nov 75k Calls since last Friday. Election-date options positions are also rising with Friday implied vols >87 even as realized vols are at 40.
We expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week, where a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.
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QCP Election Commentary - 5 Nov 24
The day has finally arrived. Across stocks, treasuries, and crypto, market anxiety is palpable ahead of what promises to be one of the closest U.S. presidential races in history.
The "Trump trade"—encompassing long positions in the dollar, crypto, and bets on higher Treasury yields—has gained traction leading up to the election, buoyed by Trump's lead in prediction markets. However, a Harris victory could potentially reverse these gains, triggering significant market swings overnight.
The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself. Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk: the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes.
Volatility is almost certain...
Recall that in 2016, when Trump claimed a surprise victory, U.S. futures initially plunged before rebounding, with the two following days marking the most active trading of that half-year. Similarly in 2020, the race wasn't officially called for Joe Biden until four days later, causing trading volume to spike to a six-month high.
Possible Permutations
The outcome of the congressional races could be just as influential as the presidential result. A Republican sweep may indicate higher future fiscal deficits, likely prompting a more hawkish Federal Reserve—an unfavorable scenario for risk assets. Conversely, a divided legislature could lead to calmer markets and volatility tapering off.
Implications for Crypto
Currently, the options market shows balanced skew between calls and puts, with the desk observing heavy buying in both topside calls and downside puts over the past few days.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin continues to be viewed as a "Trump trade". BTC spot prices dropped amid significant outflows from spot ETFs on Monday, coinciding with a poll showing Harris's narrow lead in Iowa. As poll results begin to roll in tomorrow, we anticipate BTC spot to experience erratic swings.
Buckle up.
The day has finally arrived. Across stocks, treasuries, and crypto, market anxiety is palpable ahead of what promises to be one of the closest U.S. presidential races in history.
The "Trump trade"—encompassing long positions in the dollar, crypto, and bets on higher Treasury yields—has gained traction leading up to the election, buoyed by Trump's lead in prediction markets. However, a Harris victory could potentially reverse these gains, triggering significant market swings overnight.
The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself. Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk: the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes.
Volatility is almost certain...
Recall that in 2016, when Trump claimed a surprise victory, U.S. futures initially plunged before rebounding, with the two following days marking the most active trading of that half-year. Similarly in 2020, the race wasn't officially called for Joe Biden until four days later, causing trading volume to spike to a six-month high.
Possible Permutations
The outcome of the congressional races could be just as influential as the presidential result. A Republican sweep may indicate higher future fiscal deficits, likely prompting a more hawkish Federal Reserve—an unfavorable scenario for risk assets. Conversely, a divided legislature could lead to calmer markets and volatility tapering off.
Implications for Crypto
Currently, the options market shows balanced skew between calls and puts, with the desk observing heavy buying in both topside calls and downside puts over the past few days.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin continues to be viewed as a "Trump trade". BTC spot prices dropped amid significant outflows from spot ETFs on Monday, coinciding with a poll showing Harris's narrow lead in Iowa. As poll results begin to roll in tomorrow, we anticipate BTC spot to experience erratic swings.
Buckle up.
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US Election Update
BTC hits 71,500 with Trump pulling ahead with 95 wins out of the 135 electoral votes counted so far.
BTC hits 71,500 with Trump pulling ahead with 95 wins out of the 135 electoral votes counted so far.
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US Election Update
BTC hits 73,000 with Trump closing in with securing 210 of the 270 electoral votes to win.
BTC hits 73,000 with Trump closing in with securing 210 of the 270 electoral votes to win.
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QCP Election Commentary - 6 Nov 24
What an incredibly eventful day! Just a few more votes for Trump, and the 2024 presidency is pretty much decided. Trump has maintained a lead in the polls from the start, and now it all hinges on Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. With over half the votes counted in these states, the scales are tipping toward Trump.
The dollar surged 1.2% to reach July highs of 105, with yields also climbing as markets anticipate stronger economic growth and increased fiscal spending. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 15 basis points, while the 2-year added 8 basis points, signaling heightened investor expectations. Despite expectations for a decrease in rate cut probabilities due to Trump’s "friendlier" proposed policies, the market is still pricing in 1.8 cuts this year and 3 more cuts next year.
The crypto market has been on fire with BTC hitting all-time high of 75k after touching its previous record of 73.5k, set back on March 14. Since then, BTC has traded mostly within a tight range below 70k. Notably, BTC has now navigated three election cycles since its inception in 2009, each followed by rallies to new highs, with prices never dipping back to pre-election levels. We expect this bullish momentum to hold strong as we head into 2025.
What an incredibly eventful day! Just a few more votes for Trump, and the 2024 presidency is pretty much decided. Trump has maintained a lead in the polls from the start, and now it all hinges on Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. With over half the votes counted in these states, the scales are tipping toward Trump.
The dollar surged 1.2% to reach July highs of 105, with yields also climbing as markets anticipate stronger economic growth and increased fiscal spending. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 15 basis points, while the 2-year added 8 basis points, signaling heightened investor expectations. Despite expectations for a decrease in rate cut probabilities due to Trump’s "friendlier" proposed policies, the market is still pricing in 1.8 cuts this year and 3 more cuts next year.
The crypto market has been on fire with BTC hitting all-time high of 75k after touching its previous record of 73.5k, set back on March 14. Since then, BTC has traded mostly within a tight range below 70k. Notably, BTC has now navigated three election cycles since its inception in 2009, each followed by rallies to new highs, with prices never dipping back to pre-election levels. We expect this bullish momentum to hold strong as we head into 2025.
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QCP Asia Colour - 8 Nov 24
Unprecedented net inflows of $1.38 billion into BTC spot ETFs yesterday, coupled with optimism from Trump’s victory and a widely anticipated 25 bps Fed cut, have propelled BTC to $77,000 early this morning.
However, investors are beginning to pull back on some "Trump trades": the dollar has reversed much of its post-election gains, and Treasury yields have settled back into recent ranges after a brief whipsaw.
As markets consider Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on China and fiscal concerns like the rising national debt, we expect BTC to carry less risk premium compared to equities, potentially positioning it to outperform other risk-on assets.
This sustained bullishness in BTC could also create a feedback loop, with rising ETF inflows boosting BTC prices, which, in turn, attracts more retail capital and systematic fund buying as volatility declines.
Unprecedented net inflows of $1.38 billion into BTC spot ETFs yesterday, coupled with optimism from Trump’s victory and a widely anticipated 25 bps Fed cut, have propelled BTC to $77,000 early this morning.
However, investors are beginning to pull back on some "Trump trades": the dollar has reversed much of its post-election gains, and Treasury yields have settled back into recent ranges after a brief whipsaw.
As markets consider Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on China and fiscal concerns like the rising national debt, we expect BTC to carry less risk premium compared to equities, potentially positioning it to outperform other risk-on assets.
This sustained bullishness in BTC could also create a feedback loop, with rising ETF inflows boosting BTC prices, which, in turn, attracts more retail capital and systematic fund buying as volatility declines.
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📣 Our dedicated OTC spot trading arm, QCP Trading, has received In-Principle Approval (IPA) for a Major Payment Institution License from MAS! This is a key step toward delivering compliant, client-first digital asset solutions in Singapore.
We’re dedicated to providing secure spot trading across stablecoins and major tokens, enhanced by on/off ramping in multiple currencies, 24/7 support, API integration, voice trading, and same-day settlement through our banking partners.
Read the full announcement on our website to learn more.
We’re dedicated to providing secure spot trading across stablecoins and major tokens, enhanced by on/off ramping in multiple currencies, 24/7 support, API integration, voice trading, and same-day settlement through our banking partners.
Read the full announcement on our website to learn more.
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QCP Asia Colour - 11 November 24
- BTC continues to soar to record highs! Despite making new highs, vols have not reacted much as a result of large profit taking on long Calls. This means that the market was well positioned for this rally.
- With BTC's break of key resistance and it's multi-month range, the market is certainly in a state of euphoria. Perp funding is very elevated and basis yields are at 7-month highs. While we remain structurally bullish, we are cautious of any pullbacks especially from leveraged washouts. Historically, such spikes in basis yields have not lasted very long either.
- In the near term, we expect spot to chop around these levels and vols to soften even as we anticipate this week's macro events. Key events this week are: US CPI (Wed), US PPI (Thu) and Powell speech (Fri) where we'll get more clarity on the expected 25bps rate cut in December.
- BTC continues to soar to record highs! Despite making new highs, vols have not reacted much as a result of large profit taking on long Calls. This means that the market was well positioned for this rally.
- With BTC's break of key resistance and it's multi-month range, the market is certainly in a state of euphoria. Perp funding is very elevated and basis yields are at 7-month highs. While we remain structurally bullish, we are cautious of any pullbacks especially from leveraged washouts. Historically, such spikes in basis yields have not lasted very long either.
- In the near term, we expect spot to chop around these levels and vols to soften even as we anticipate this week's macro events. Key events this week are: US CPI (Wed), US PPI (Thu) and Powell speech (Fri) where we'll get more clarity on the expected 25bps rate cut in December.
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QCP Broadcast pinned «📣 Our dedicated OTC spot trading arm, QCP Trading, has received In-Principle Approval (IPA) for a Major Payment Institution License from MAS! This is a key step toward delivering compliant, client-first digital asset solutions in Singapore. We’re dedicated…»
QCP Asia Colour - 12 November 24
Since the election, gold has declined by 5% while Bitcoin has surged by 30%, signaling a shift as Bitcoin gains traction as "digital gold." This movement appears increasingly structural, with capital reallocating from traditional safe havens like gold into BTC.
Bitcoin’s market cap, now at $1.73 trillion, recently surpassed that of silver but remains well below gold's $17.5 trillion. If even 1% of capital from gold were to flow into BTC, it could propel Bitcoin to around $97k, highlighting the potential upside as this narrative continues to solidify.
With BTC just below the critical $90k level, the end-November basis has surged to over 18%, accompanied by strong interest in far-out calls at 110k and 120k strikes. This trend points to heightened demand for margin and leverage as investors position for further breakout potential.
Since the election, gold has declined by 5% while Bitcoin has surged by 30%, signaling a shift as Bitcoin gains traction as "digital gold." This movement appears increasingly structural, with capital reallocating from traditional safe havens like gold into BTC.
Bitcoin’s market cap, now at $1.73 trillion, recently surpassed that of silver but remains well below gold's $17.5 trillion. If even 1% of capital from gold were to flow into BTC, it could propel Bitcoin to around $97k, highlighting the potential upside as this narrative continues to solidify.
With BTC just below the critical $90k level, the end-November basis has surged to over 18%, accompanied by strong interest in far-out calls at 110k and 120k strikes. This trend points to heightened demand for margin and leverage as investors position for further breakout potential.
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QCP Asia Colour - 13 November 24
BTC has entered "a new phase" after nearly breaking the 90k mark, solidifying its position as a treasury asset increasingly held by corporations, governments, and institutions. Record-breaking demand for BTC ETFs is setting the market on fire, with a massive $2.28 billion flowing in over just three days. Following last week's U.S. election, BTC ETFs raked in $1.8 billion, starting this week strong with another $1.1 billion in net inflows. It’s clear: the market is adjusting to BTC’s new highs, and the demand has never been hotter.
On the other hand, memecoin activity ramped up as well. DOGE skyrocketed Tuesday night, building on its post-election rally after Trump announced the formation of the Department of Government Efficiency, referred to as “DOGE.” Tesla’s Elon Musk and former Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the new department, with plans to "dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, and streamline federal agencies." DOGE jumped nearly 20%, trading at $0.37 by early morning after briefly touching $0.43. The meme coin has surged 153% since election day, outperforming Bitcoin’s 30% rise, and recently overtook XRP to claim the sixth spot by market cap.
Today’s focus is on the release of CPI and core CPI, anticipated to hold steady at 0.2% and 0.3% for October, with annual CPI projected to rise by 2.6%. Markets are pricing in a final rate cut for the December meeting with a 70% probability, but today's CPI, upcoming PCE on November 27, and potential policy shifts from Trump could all impact the Fed's ultimate decision.
BTC has entered "a new phase" after nearly breaking the 90k mark, solidifying its position as a treasury asset increasingly held by corporations, governments, and institutions. Record-breaking demand for BTC ETFs is setting the market on fire, with a massive $2.28 billion flowing in over just three days. Following last week's U.S. election, BTC ETFs raked in $1.8 billion, starting this week strong with another $1.1 billion in net inflows. It’s clear: the market is adjusting to BTC’s new highs, and the demand has never been hotter.
On the other hand, memecoin activity ramped up as well. DOGE skyrocketed Tuesday night, building on its post-election rally after Trump announced the formation of the Department of Government Efficiency, referred to as “DOGE.” Tesla’s Elon Musk and former Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the new department, with plans to "dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, and streamline federal agencies." DOGE jumped nearly 20%, trading at $0.37 by early morning after briefly touching $0.43. The meme coin has surged 153% since election day, outperforming Bitcoin’s 30% rise, and recently overtook XRP to claim the sixth spot by market cap.
Today’s focus is on the release of CPI and core CPI, anticipated to hold steady at 0.2% and 0.3% for October, with annual CPI projected to rise by 2.6%. Markets are pricing in a final rate cut for the December meeting with a 70% probability, but today's CPI, upcoming PCE on November 27, and potential policy shifts from Trump could all impact the Fed's ultimate decision.
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