QCP Asia Colour – 23 Sep 24
- A Harris win this election may not be as bearish as the market thinks. In another bid to win over the crypto vote, Kamala Harris vowed at a fundraiser over the weekend to help the crypto sector grow. This is on top of Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates working alongside her campaign's crypto policies.
- Harris' apparent pro-crypto flip together with macro tailwinds, gave crypto a boost to start the week which triggered almost 60m of short liquidations.
- Last week we mentioned that BTC could rally up to 13.8% from its lows of 57.5k. Since last Monday, BTC has recovered almost 12% and it looks poised to rally further.
- The usual frontend Put skew that we've been seeing over the past month is starting to normalize, as more buyers of topside and sellers of downside options emerged over the weekend.
- Even funding rates on major exchanges are improving, and basis yields are starting to look relatively more attractive, especially with the interest rate cuts.
Trade Idea:
If you would like to ride the bullish momentum into Q4, a Principal Protected Sharkfin offers a potential return of over 96% p.a with no downside.
BTC SHARKFIN
Max Payout: 96% p.a.
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80k
Barrier: 100k
(spot ref: 63,500)
- A Harris win this election may not be as bearish as the market thinks. In another bid to win over the crypto vote, Kamala Harris vowed at a fundraiser over the weekend to help the crypto sector grow. This is on top of Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates working alongside her campaign's crypto policies.
- Harris' apparent pro-crypto flip together with macro tailwinds, gave crypto a boost to start the week which triggered almost 60m of short liquidations.
- Last week we mentioned that BTC could rally up to 13.8% from its lows of 57.5k. Since last Monday, BTC has recovered almost 12% and it looks poised to rally further.
- The usual frontend Put skew that we've been seeing over the past month is starting to normalize, as more buyers of topside and sellers of downside options emerged over the weekend.
- Even funding rates on major exchanges are improving, and basis yields are starting to look relatively more attractive, especially with the interest rate cuts.
Trade Idea:
If you would like to ride the bullish momentum into Q4, a Principal Protected Sharkfin offers a potential return of over 96% p.a with no downside.
BTC SHARKFIN
Max Payout: 96% p.a.
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80k
Barrier: 100k
(spot ref: 63,500)
❤14👍5🔥5
QCP Asia Colour- 24 Sep 24
- The 4.15% rally in the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) today was driven by the PBoC's significant stimulus measures, marking a pivotal moment for global markets.
- The 50bps cut in Reserve Requirement Ratios (RRR) freeing up 1 Trillion Yuan for lending, coupled with a 500 Billion Yuan funding program for stock market investment, has sparked optimism across global markets.
- Commodity prices have responded positively, with Brent Crude (+2.35%) and Copper (+2.32%) both seeing notable gains, reflecting increased demand expectations tied to improved Chinese consumption.
- The strong policy action by China is on back of the Fed's 50bps cut, suggesting a continued wave of global easing that will provide strong support to asset prices in the near term.
- On the crypto front, this general bullish lift has seen a bigger boost in ETH price relative to BTC with the ETH/BTC cross trading from 0.038 on Friday, to 0.0415 today. Is this a sign of renewed confidence in ETH or merely higher beta from impaired liquidity?
- On the options side, front end skew for ETH has shifted from puts to calls, while ETH implied vol is trading 9% higher than BTC, suggesting both upside sentiment and higher expected volatility.
Trade Idea:
With global markets entering a rate-cut regime, we favour locking in strong yields with ETH CFCC, heading into year end.
ETH CFCC (27 Dec expiry)
Earn a weekly 82% pa coupon as long as ETH price is above 2,600
Strike: 2.500
Protection: 2,300
At expiry, only if ETH is below 2.3k, the USD deployed will be converted to ETH at 2.5k.
- The 4.15% rally in the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) today was driven by the PBoC's significant stimulus measures, marking a pivotal moment for global markets.
- The 50bps cut in Reserve Requirement Ratios (RRR) freeing up 1 Trillion Yuan for lending, coupled with a 500 Billion Yuan funding program for stock market investment, has sparked optimism across global markets.
- Commodity prices have responded positively, with Brent Crude (+2.35%) and Copper (+2.32%) both seeing notable gains, reflecting increased demand expectations tied to improved Chinese consumption.
- The strong policy action by China is on back of the Fed's 50bps cut, suggesting a continued wave of global easing that will provide strong support to asset prices in the near term.
- On the crypto front, this general bullish lift has seen a bigger boost in ETH price relative to BTC with the ETH/BTC cross trading from 0.038 on Friday, to 0.0415 today. Is this a sign of renewed confidence in ETH or merely higher beta from impaired liquidity?
- On the options side, front end skew for ETH has shifted from puts to calls, while ETH implied vol is trading 9% higher than BTC, suggesting both upside sentiment and higher expected volatility.
Trade Idea:
With global markets entering a rate-cut regime, we favour locking in strong yields with ETH CFCC, heading into year end.
ETH CFCC (27 Dec expiry)
Earn a weekly 82% pa coupon as long as ETH price is above 2,600
Strike: 2.500
Protection: 2,300
At expiry, only if ETH is below 2.3k, the USD deployed will be converted to ETH at 2.5k.
❤15👍4
QCP Asia Colour- 25 Sep 24
The macro space continues to look more and more bullish for risk assets, including crypto.
Yesterday, the PBoC introduced a slew of policies aimed at kickstarting their sputtering housing market and anemic equity market. It has apparently worked (for now) as Chinese A50 futures closed 8% higher, with Chinese and Hong Kong indices following suit.
The PBoC also announced an unprecedented 500bn RMB swap facility that allows non-bank financial institutions to buy Chinese shares. This facility was previously only available to national banks.
We believe more easing is coming from the PBoC, and they have communicated as much. Combined with the Fed joining the global cutting cycle, all major central banks (except BoJ) are now ready to inject more liquidity into the market.
We have seen the 2s10s spread (the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes) continue to widen over the past month, moving 40bps higher and now trading at 21bps. A widening spread generally suggests optimism about economic growth, which is supportive of risk assets in the medium to long term.
On the U.S. political front, Kamala Harris spoke positively about AI and digital assets at her fundraiser. We saw a rally in AI-related coins following her speech. The SEC approving options trading on IBIT (BlackRock's Spot BTC ETF) also shows the growing acceptance and demand for digital assets as an asset class.
Trade Idea:
"The most successful traders are those who can see the confluence of external factors before they fully impact the market." - George Soros
While there is currently a lack of idiosyncratic crypto factors driving prices, the stars are aligning in the macro environment, which could drive crypto prices higher. We know how explosive crypto prices can be, and with so many bullish catalysts, we think the next move higher will leave many people surprised and sidelined.
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 8x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 8x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 63,800)
BTC 27-Dec Seagull
Max payout: 261.65% if BTC spot price fixes at or above 100k at expiry.
Buy 2x 80k/100k call spread
Sell 60k put
Cost: ZERO
(spot ref: 63,800)
The macro space continues to look more and more bullish for risk assets, including crypto.
Yesterday, the PBoC introduced a slew of policies aimed at kickstarting their sputtering housing market and anemic equity market. It has apparently worked (for now) as Chinese A50 futures closed 8% higher, with Chinese and Hong Kong indices following suit.
The PBoC also announced an unprecedented 500bn RMB swap facility that allows non-bank financial institutions to buy Chinese shares. This facility was previously only available to national banks.
We believe more easing is coming from the PBoC, and they have communicated as much. Combined with the Fed joining the global cutting cycle, all major central banks (except BoJ) are now ready to inject more liquidity into the market.
We have seen the 2s10s spread (the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes) continue to widen over the past month, moving 40bps higher and now trading at 21bps. A widening spread generally suggests optimism about economic growth, which is supportive of risk assets in the medium to long term.
On the U.S. political front, Kamala Harris spoke positively about AI and digital assets at her fundraiser. We saw a rally in AI-related coins following her speech. The SEC approving options trading on IBIT (BlackRock's Spot BTC ETF) also shows the growing acceptance and demand for digital assets as an asset class.
Trade Idea:
"The most successful traders are those who can see the confluence of external factors before they fully impact the market." - George Soros
While there is currently a lack of idiosyncratic crypto factors driving prices, the stars are aligning in the macro environment, which could drive crypto prices higher. We know how explosive crypto prices can be, and with so many bullish catalysts, we think the next move higher will leave many people surprised and sidelined.
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 8x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 8x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 63,800)
BTC 27-Dec Seagull
Max payout: 261.65% if BTC spot price fixes at or above 100k at expiry.
Buy 2x 80k/100k call spread
Sell 60k put
Cost: ZERO
(spot ref: 63,800)
❤17👍5🔥3
QCP Asia Colour- 26 Sep 24
• Crypto continues to consolidate below the key level of 64,000 amidst a lack of macro catalysts from the U.S. BTC remains range-bound between 62,000 and 64,000, while ETH is trading at the low end of 2,600.
• Micron (MU) surged 16% before the opening bell today due to the upward revision of their revenue forecast for Q4. The market anticipates other chip players such as Nvidia (NVDA) to follow suit. Given how the rally in Nvidia’s stocks often lead to a rally in crypto, could this spark the catalyst required to pull BTC above 64,000?
• Key macro events to watch today include the U.S. GDP reading and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The market will be following Powell’s speech closely for indications of any shifts in sentiment following last Thursday’s FOMC press conference, which signaled potential for further easing.
• Overnight, presidential candidate Kamala Harris reaffirmed her support for cryptocurrencies for the second time this week, promising to position the U.S. as a dominant power in “AI, quantum computing, and blockchain.” She also reiterated the inclusion of “digital assets” in her economic plan.
Trade Idea
With both presidential candidates pledging their support for crypto, the election of either candidate would be a win for the crypto ecosystem in the U.S. As central banks globally begin easing rate cycles, the anticipated influx of liquidity is likely to drive crypto prices higher. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot Sharkfin
Max Payout: 105.59% p.a.
Maturity: 28MAR25
Strike: 85,000
Barrier: 130,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
Elections - Trump vs Harris Showdown
Make 401.4% p.a. returns if BTC expires at 80k on Election Week (08-Nov).
Maturity: 08NOV24
Sell 1x BTC 62k Put
Buy 3x BTC 70k/80k/90k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 401.4% p.a. or $30,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 80k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 62,000, you buy BTC at 62,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
• Crypto continues to consolidate below the key level of 64,000 amidst a lack of macro catalysts from the U.S. BTC remains range-bound between 62,000 and 64,000, while ETH is trading at the low end of 2,600.
• Micron (MU) surged 16% before the opening bell today due to the upward revision of their revenue forecast for Q4. The market anticipates other chip players such as Nvidia (NVDA) to follow suit. Given how the rally in Nvidia’s stocks often lead to a rally in crypto, could this spark the catalyst required to pull BTC above 64,000?
• Key macro events to watch today include the U.S. GDP reading and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The market will be following Powell’s speech closely for indications of any shifts in sentiment following last Thursday’s FOMC press conference, which signaled potential for further easing.
• Overnight, presidential candidate Kamala Harris reaffirmed her support for cryptocurrencies for the second time this week, promising to position the U.S. as a dominant power in “AI, quantum computing, and blockchain.” She also reiterated the inclusion of “digital assets” in her economic plan.
Trade Idea
With both presidential candidates pledging their support for crypto, the election of either candidate would be a win for the crypto ecosystem in the U.S. As central banks globally begin easing rate cycles, the anticipated influx of liquidity is likely to drive crypto prices higher. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot Sharkfin
Max Payout: 105.59% p.a.
Maturity: 28MAR25
Strike: 85,000
Barrier: 130,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
Elections - Trump vs Harris Showdown
Make 401.4% p.a. returns if BTC expires at 80k on Election Week (08-Nov).
Maturity: 08NOV24
Sell 1x BTC 62k Put
Buy 3x BTC 70k/80k/90k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 401.4% p.a. or $30,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 80k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 62,000, you buy BTC at 62,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
👍10❤4❤🔥3
QCP Weekend Summary - 28 Sep 24
This week, the market experienced a significant rally in risk assets, primarily driven by the PBoC's stimulus aimed at revitalizing the Chinese economy. This followed the Fed's announcement of a 50bps rate cut, which has set a positive tone for global markets.
In Japan, political developments have also shifted market sentiment. Ishiba, a vocal critic of the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policies, is poised to become the new PM. This has shifted market expectations away from BoJ's low interest rate stance, adding another layer of complexity to the financial landscape.
The Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, reported a softer-than-expected increase of 2.6% YoY (forecasted 2.7% YoY). This has increased the market's anticipation of a potential 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, with probabilities now at 53% for 50bps versus 47% for 25bps. Following this data, the DOW closed at a record high, climbing 137.89 points.
As we head into next week, the key focus will be on upcoming labour market indicators, including JOLTs, ADP, and the U.S unemployment rate. Strong performance in these metrics could bolster the case for a 50bps cut in November, further propelling risk assets.
On the crypto front, BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week, closing Friday with $494.4m inflows. Despite lacklustre flows into ETH ETF as of late, we observed ETH ETF picking up and closing Friday with $58.7m inflows. BTC has reclaimed the 66k mark, while ETH is trading around 2.7k. Implied volatility for ETH remains elevated (by 8%) compared to BTC, while ETH/BTC remains steady above the 0.04 mark.
Trade Idea
While the stars are aligned for risk assets to rally heading into Q4, we favor topside structures that offer high payouts as we remain bullish heading into the next quarter.
Election Ticket
Expiry: 8 Nov 24
Sell 1x BTC 64k Put
Buy 18x BTC 70k/72k/74k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 488.8% p.a. or $36,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 72k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 64,000, you buy BTC at 64,000
This week, the market experienced a significant rally in risk assets, primarily driven by the PBoC's stimulus aimed at revitalizing the Chinese economy. This followed the Fed's announcement of a 50bps rate cut, which has set a positive tone for global markets.
In Japan, political developments have also shifted market sentiment. Ishiba, a vocal critic of the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policies, is poised to become the new PM. This has shifted market expectations away from BoJ's low interest rate stance, adding another layer of complexity to the financial landscape.
The Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, reported a softer-than-expected increase of 2.6% YoY (forecasted 2.7% YoY). This has increased the market's anticipation of a potential 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, with probabilities now at 53% for 50bps versus 47% for 25bps. Following this data, the DOW closed at a record high, climbing 137.89 points.
As we head into next week, the key focus will be on upcoming labour market indicators, including JOLTs, ADP, and the U.S unemployment rate. Strong performance in these metrics could bolster the case for a 50bps cut in November, further propelling risk assets.
On the crypto front, BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week, closing Friday with $494.4m inflows. Despite lacklustre flows into ETH ETF as of late, we observed ETH ETF picking up and closing Friday with $58.7m inflows. BTC has reclaimed the 66k mark, while ETH is trading around 2.7k. Implied volatility for ETH remains elevated (by 8%) compared to BTC, while ETH/BTC remains steady above the 0.04 mark.
Trade Idea
While the stars are aligned for risk assets to rally heading into Q4, we favor topside structures that offer high payouts as we remain bullish heading into the next quarter.
Election Ticket
Expiry: 8 Nov 24
Sell 1x BTC 64k Put
Buy 18x BTC 70k/72k/74k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 488.8% p.a. or $36,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 72k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 64,000, you buy BTC at 64,000
❤20👍7🔥2🍾1🫡1
QCP Asia Colour - 30 Sep 24
As Q3 concludes, both equities and Bitcoin have outperformed their expectations, defying their usual September downturn:
- The S&P 500 is up 5.1% for the quarter, marking its best year-to-date performance since 1997.
- Bitcoin has surged over 7% this month, on track for one of its strongest September performance on record.
- Global risk-on sentiment remains strong as we enter Uptober, with China's CSI 300 Index jumping by 9% today after introducing its largest property support package in years. Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage desk shows hedge funds positioning with three times as many bets on rising IT stocks compared to falling ones.
Crypto Market Outlook
This equity-led rally may be tested when Q3 earnings kick off in mid-October as traders reassess the current lofty valuations. We expect Bitcoin to benefit from any equity retracement due to its nature as a risk-on asset amidst global monetary easing.
Trade Idea
BTC may continue to trade within its current range, as historically, significant profit-taking transactions have occurred at these levels. However, we maintain a positive medium-term outlook. A breakout above 70k could trigger further upside momentum.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 5% p.a. coupon if fixes between 62k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 76k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 35.3% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 11OCT24
Coupon Rate: 5% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 62,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 76,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 35.3% p.a.
Spot Ref: 63,300
As Q3 concludes, both equities and Bitcoin have outperformed their expectations, defying their usual September downturn:
- The S&P 500 is up 5.1% for the quarter, marking its best year-to-date performance since 1997.
- Bitcoin has surged over 7% this month, on track for one of its strongest September performance on record.
- Global risk-on sentiment remains strong as we enter Uptober, with China's CSI 300 Index jumping by 9% today after introducing its largest property support package in years. Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage desk shows hedge funds positioning with three times as many bets on rising IT stocks compared to falling ones.
Crypto Market Outlook
This equity-led rally may be tested when Q3 earnings kick off in mid-October as traders reassess the current lofty valuations. We expect Bitcoin to benefit from any equity retracement due to its nature as a risk-on asset amidst global monetary easing.
Trade Idea
BTC may continue to trade within its current range, as historically, significant profit-taking transactions have occurred at these levels. However, we maintain a positive medium-term outlook. A breakout above 70k could trigger further upside momentum.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 5% p.a. coupon if fixes between 62k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 76k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 35.3% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 11OCT24
Coupon Rate: 5% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 62,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 76,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 35.3% p.a.
Spot Ref: 63,300
👍8❤1🔥1
QCP Asia Colour - 1 Oct 24
- We're finally in "Uptober". Historically, October is a bullish month, with BTC having an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers. A similar increase would take us above 78k, breaking all-time highs.
- While ETH also tends to perform well in October, its average returns over the past 8 Octobers have been approximately 5%. However, we observed a significant amount of ETH October Calls being purchased this morning.
- BTC has been trading within the 60k-70k range for 8 months now. Will Uptober be the month we finally see a big breakout? The market is considering this possibility, especially with the US elections around the corner. Spot ETF inflows remain consistently positive, and perp funding is approaching levels reminiscent of Q1's bull run.
Trade Idea
Trade the Uptober ATH Breakout with a BTC Call DIGI (75k 25-OCT)
Payout: 6.5x
(spot ref: 64k)
- We're finally in "Uptober". Historically, October is a bullish month, with BTC having an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers. A similar increase would take us above 78k, breaking all-time highs.
- While ETH also tends to perform well in October, its average returns over the past 8 Octobers have been approximately 5%. However, we observed a significant amount of ETH October Calls being purchased this morning.
- BTC has been trading within the 60k-70k range for 8 months now. Will Uptober be the month we finally see a big breakout? The market is considering this possibility, especially with the US elections around the corner. Spot ETF inflows remain consistently positive, and perp funding is approaching levels reminiscent of Q1's bull run.
Trade Idea
Trade the Uptober ATH Breakout with a BTC Call DIGI (75k 25-OCT)
Payout: 6.5x
(spot ref: 64k)
❤17👍9🔥1🫡1
QCP Asia Colour - 2 Oct 24
The Israeli-Iranian conflict has intensified. Earlier this week, Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon and Iran responded by launching over 180 missiles yesterday. However, the risk off move in TradFi assets was minimal. The S&P closed 1% lower, WTI closed 2% higher, and we're seeing minimal follow through in price action today.
Crypto, however, was hit much harder with BTC closing 4% lower. We seem to have found some support at the 60k level, but further escalation could push us much lower, possibly to the 55k level.
Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets. This minor setback shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.
Policy actions and the economic situation in China are reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s. To combat deflation in Japan, the BoJ cut rates, introduced Negative Interest Rates and started the then novel Quantitative Easing Program. The flush of liquidity from the PBoC and potential fiscal support will likely support asset prices in China, with bullish sentiment potentially spilling over globally to support risk assets, including crypto.
In his recent Q&A, Powell was supportive of further rate cuts in 2024. Assets prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Fed) and 3rd largest (PBoC) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 9x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 9x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 61,700)
The Israeli-Iranian conflict has intensified. Earlier this week, Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon and Iran responded by launching over 180 missiles yesterday. However, the risk off move in TradFi assets was minimal. The S&P closed 1% lower, WTI closed 2% higher, and we're seeing minimal follow through in price action today.
Crypto, however, was hit much harder with BTC closing 4% lower. We seem to have found some support at the 60k level, but further escalation could push us much lower, possibly to the 55k level.
Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets. This minor setback shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.
Policy actions and the economic situation in China are reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s. To combat deflation in Japan, the BoJ cut rates, introduced Negative Interest Rates and started the then novel Quantitative Easing Program. The flush of liquidity from the PBoC and potential fiscal support will likely support asset prices in China, with bullish sentiment potentially spilling over globally to support risk assets, including crypto.
In his recent Q&A, Powell was supportive of further rate cuts in 2024. Assets prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Fed) and 3rd largest (PBoC) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 9x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 9x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 61,700)
❤15👍5👌3
QCP Asia Colour - 3 Oct 24
Markets remain tense as the world awaits Israel's response to Iran's missile strike on Tuesday. Crypto saw another selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $59,972 and Ethereum (ETH) falling below $2,400. BTC's lower-low and lower-high suggest a short-term bearish outlook.
We believe this weakness is temporary, given the strong correlation between crypto and U.S. stocks. As U.S. equities recover, crypto is likely to follow. This correlation highlights that macroeconomic factors are currently the main drivers of risk asset prices.
With the ADP payroll report beating expectations, tomorrow's non-farm payroll report will be key in confirming a strong U.S. labor market. A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets.
Trade Idea
Despite Middle Eastern tensions impacting Bitcoin during its historically strong month, we see this dip as temporary and expect the "Uptober" rally to prevail. We favor a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on the expected bullish momentum.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 88,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 74.43% p.a. if spot expires just below 88,000 BTCUSD
(spot ref: 60,200)
Markets remain tense as the world awaits Israel's response to Iran's missile strike on Tuesday. Crypto saw another selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $59,972 and Ethereum (ETH) falling below $2,400. BTC's lower-low and lower-high suggest a short-term bearish outlook.
We believe this weakness is temporary, given the strong correlation between crypto and U.S. stocks. As U.S. equities recover, crypto is likely to follow. This correlation highlights that macroeconomic factors are currently the main drivers of risk asset prices.
With the ADP payroll report beating expectations, tomorrow's non-farm payroll report will be key in confirming a strong U.S. labor market. A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets.
Trade Idea
Despite Middle Eastern tensions impacting Bitcoin during its historically strong month, we see this dip as temporary and expect the "Uptober" rally to prevail. We favor a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on the expected bullish momentum.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 88,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 74.43% p.a. if spot expires just below 88,000 BTCUSD
(spot ref: 60,200)
👍11❤5🥰2🐳1
QCP Weekend Summary – 05 October 24
- The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the outbreak of the Gaza war) and scale of Iran’s attack, market is expecting Israel’s retaliation to be more critical as they target key infrastructures such as Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.
- Friday’s non-farm payrolls printed 254,000, smashing expectations at 150,000. US unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (est. 4.2%). The strong data reflects a robust labour market despite last month’s dismal print.
- A resilient labour market coupled with the possibility of additional rate cuts later this year have boosted risk assets, with BTC briefly reclaiming $62,000.
- Options market activity continues to grow as as we enter Q4 with demand for December calls still building up, highlighting market’s bullish view towards the end of the year.
- With BTC down approximately 5% from last week's highs, we believe the recent positive macro data supports our view of the long-awaited "Uptober" trend.
Trade Idea
With Geopolitical risk being the biggest concern now till US elections, we favour locking in yields at the these spot levels to allow the dust to settle and position for a rally into the year end.
BTC CFCC
Receive weekly 37% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 58,500
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Rate: 37% p.a.
Coupon Level: Above 58,500
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 50,000
At expiry, if BTC is below 50,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55,000
(Spot ref: 62,250)
- The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the outbreak of the Gaza war) and scale of Iran’s attack, market is expecting Israel’s retaliation to be more critical as they target key infrastructures such as Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.
- Friday’s non-farm payrolls printed 254,000, smashing expectations at 150,000. US unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (est. 4.2%). The strong data reflects a robust labour market despite last month’s dismal print.
- A resilient labour market coupled with the possibility of additional rate cuts later this year have boosted risk assets, with BTC briefly reclaiming $62,000.
- Options market activity continues to grow as as we enter Q4 with demand for December calls still building up, highlighting market’s bullish view towards the end of the year.
- With BTC down approximately 5% from last week's highs, we believe the recent positive macro data supports our view of the long-awaited "Uptober" trend.
Trade Idea
With Geopolitical risk being the biggest concern now till US elections, we favour locking in yields at the these spot levels to allow the dust to settle and position for a rally into the year end.
BTC CFCC
Receive weekly 37% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 58,500
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Rate: 37% p.a.
Coupon Level: Above 58,500
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 50,000
At expiry, if BTC is below 50,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55,000
(Spot ref: 62,250)
❤11👍2👌2
QCP Asia Colour - 7 Oct 24
- After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday.
- The Uptober narrative coupled with strong NFP numbers has helped BTC find strong support around 60k. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary has also brought more mainstream attention to crypto as memecoins themed after Len Sasssaman are also starting to gain traction.
- Despite the rough start last week, options flows are still pointing to a bullish Q4 as we continue to see buyers of Dec 75k/95k CSpds. With additional rate cuts lined up and BTC's strong correlation to equities, we still remain optimistic of a strong October.
- That being said, all eyes are on US CPI this Thursday. With the recent strong US wage and jobs numbers, the market will be paying close attention to this print for any signs of an uptick in inflation. Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from 50 bps to 25 bps in just a week and this week's data may determine if further cuts get priced out.
Trade Idea
Throughout last week we still saw significant buyers of BTC Dec CSpds. Instead of spending premiums on Call Spreads, you can gain similar topside exposure with a zero cost Principal Protected Sharkfin.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 90,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 90% p.a. if spot expires just below 90k.
(spot ref: 63,500)
- After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday.
- The Uptober narrative coupled with strong NFP numbers has helped BTC find strong support around 60k. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary has also brought more mainstream attention to crypto as memecoins themed after Len Sasssaman are also starting to gain traction.
- Despite the rough start last week, options flows are still pointing to a bullish Q4 as we continue to see buyers of Dec 75k/95k CSpds. With additional rate cuts lined up and BTC's strong correlation to equities, we still remain optimistic of a strong October.
- That being said, all eyes are on US CPI this Thursday. With the recent strong US wage and jobs numbers, the market will be paying close attention to this print for any signs of an uptick in inflation. Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from 50 bps to 25 bps in just a week and this week's data may determine if further cuts get priced out.
Trade Idea
Throughout last week we still saw significant buyers of BTC Dec CSpds. Instead of spending premiums on Call Spreads, you can gain similar topside exposure with a zero cost Principal Protected Sharkfin.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 90,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 90% p.a. if spot expires just below 90k.
(spot ref: 63,500)
❤🔥8❤7👍5🥰3🤯1
QCP Asia Colour - 8 Oct 24
- The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index recorded its largest decline in a month.
- US equities also declined overnight, driven by megacap tech stocks and rising geopolitical tensions, with the VIX rising to 22 points. Interestingly, crypto volatility remained stable, with front-end implied vols trading at 43%, a 3-vol discount to 7-day historical realized volatility.
- Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases since the end of September, while BTC stayed flat.
- As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry’s growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset.
Trade Idea
We foresee near-term downside risk for equities due to upcoming earnings season and CPI release, which may challenge their lofty valuations. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook.
However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting election headlines to continue driving crypto movement. This was evidenced by Elon Musk’s remark on Polymarket, where Trump was predicted to lead Harris with greater accuracy than traditional polls - an event that coincided with BTC's upward movement during the US open last night.
Bearish ERKO Put (25-Oct)
Strike: 60,000
Knock-out: 55,000
Cost: 1,090 USD per
Max payout: 4.59x if fixes just above 55,000 at expiry
Bullish ERKO Call (29-Nov)
Strike: 65,000
Knock-out: 75,000
Cost: 1,630 USD per
Max payout: 6.13x if fixes just below 75,000 at expiry
Spot Ref: 62,260
- The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index recorded its largest decline in a month.
- US equities also declined overnight, driven by megacap tech stocks and rising geopolitical tensions, with the VIX rising to 22 points. Interestingly, crypto volatility remained stable, with front-end implied vols trading at 43%, a 3-vol discount to 7-day historical realized volatility.
- Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases since the end of September, while BTC stayed flat.
- As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry’s growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset.
Trade Idea
We foresee near-term downside risk for equities due to upcoming earnings season and CPI release, which may challenge their lofty valuations. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook.
However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting election headlines to continue driving crypto movement. This was evidenced by Elon Musk’s remark on Polymarket, where Trump was predicted to lead Harris with greater accuracy than traditional polls - an event that coincided with BTC's upward movement during the US open last night.
Bearish ERKO Put (25-Oct)
Strike: 60,000
Knock-out: 55,000
Cost: 1,090 USD per
Max payout: 4.59x if fixes just above 55,000 at expiry
Bullish ERKO Call (29-Nov)
Strike: 65,000
Knock-out: 75,000
Cost: 1,630 USD per
Max payout: 6.13x if fixes just below 75,000 at expiry
Spot Ref: 62,260
❤13👍3🔥1
🎉 Exciting update! QCP has integrated USYC (Hashnote) as an approved collateral option in our digital asset investment strategies. This regulated, yield-bearing token offers greater flexibility and liquidity for clients. Plus, with our triparty collateral management solution, powered by Fireblocks, security is further enhanced.
Read our full release here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/press-release-qcp-integrates-usyc-hashnote-as-collateral-for-digital-asset-strategies/
Read our full release here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/press-release-qcp-integrates-usyc-hashnote-as-collateral-for-digital-asset-strategies/
QCP Group
Press Release: QCP Integrates USYC (Hashnote) as Collateral for Digital Asset Strategies - QCP October 9, 2024
QCP adopts USYC as collateral across its investment strategies, enhancing flexibility and security for clients. Singapore, 9 October 2024 – QCP, a leading wealth partner in digital asset strategies, announces its integration with USYC (Hashnote), allowing…
🔥7👏3🍾3❤2🫡1
QCP Asia Colour - 9 Oct 24
Chinese stocks continue to move lower today after yesterday's disappointing press conference from state planners. The China A50 Index is down another 7% today and down 17% from the recent highs. The lack of a fiscal stimulus is weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
US equities however, remain unaffected by developments in Asia. US equities continue to push for new highs despite US election uncertainty and pricing out cuts in 2024 following the NFP report. Bond markets are now pricing in 2 cuts in 2024, down from 3 cuts just a week ago.
The consistent grind higher in US equities despite growing headwinds from the Middle East and domestic challenges related to the US elections, reaffirms our view that risk assets are poised to rally.
In the crypto market, we've seen the meme coin market surge with increased trading activity both on-chain and off-chain. There is some froth in the market as traders capitalize and leverage heavily on the latest hippo or cat narrative.
Perp funding across Deribit and Binance have increased in the past 2 weeks also, a sign that bearish bets are decreasing or longs are building. This, combined with the froth in memecoins makes us wary of moves to the downside, as these often happen when markets are bullish and least expect it.
Trade Idea
We look to continue accumulating even in the face of short-term uncertainty and dips, given the bullish medium-term outlook.
We prefer Accumulators as they allow us to keep buying at discounts, and risk-off selloffs from US election uncertainty should be short-lived.
ACCUMULATOR
Expiry: 29NOV24
Settlement Frequency: Weekly from 11OCT24
Strike: 58,800
Barrier: 70,000
Spot ref: 62,100
Chinese stocks continue to move lower today after yesterday's disappointing press conference from state planners. The China A50 Index is down another 7% today and down 17% from the recent highs. The lack of a fiscal stimulus is weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
US equities however, remain unaffected by developments in Asia. US equities continue to push for new highs despite US election uncertainty and pricing out cuts in 2024 following the NFP report. Bond markets are now pricing in 2 cuts in 2024, down from 3 cuts just a week ago.
The consistent grind higher in US equities despite growing headwinds from the Middle East and domestic challenges related to the US elections, reaffirms our view that risk assets are poised to rally.
In the crypto market, we've seen the meme coin market surge with increased trading activity both on-chain and off-chain. There is some froth in the market as traders capitalize and leverage heavily on the latest hippo or cat narrative.
Perp funding across Deribit and Binance have increased in the past 2 weeks also, a sign that bearish bets are decreasing or longs are building. This, combined with the froth in memecoins makes us wary of moves to the downside, as these often happen when markets are bullish and least expect it.
Trade Idea
We look to continue accumulating even in the face of short-term uncertainty and dips, given the bullish medium-term outlook.
We prefer Accumulators as they allow us to keep buying at discounts, and risk-off selloffs from US election uncertainty should be short-lived.
ACCUMULATOR
Expiry: 29NOV24
Settlement Frequency: Weekly from 11OCT24
Strike: 58,800
Barrier: 70,000
Spot ref: 62,100
❤13👍5
QCP Asia Colour - 10 Oct 24
• Yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes revealed a less dovish tone, bringing the Fed’s implied victory over inflation under question. Combined with last Friday’s strong payroll data, market has increased their bets of a 25bps rate cut in November to 83.7% chance from 67.9% last week.
• Tonight’s CPI and tomorrow’s PPI data will be key risk events for this week. Alongside major banks earnings report (JPM/WFC), they will be crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy amidst cooling inflation.
• While US equities indices rallied last night with the S&P 500 notching a new high, the same level of optimism was not seen in crypto as selling pressures reignited, possibly due to news of more Silk Road BTC selling and PlusToken ETH selling. We remain hopeful of an Uptober rally as long as the 60,000 key support level remains intact.
Trade Idea
With markets expecting more rate cuts ahead, we favour locking in yields at these depressed spot levels and position for a year-end rally.
FIXED COUPON CONVERTIBLE (FCC)
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 18OCT24
Coupon Rate: 28% p.a. if BTC/USD fixes above Coupon Level, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Level: Above 60,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection Level: 45,000
At expiry, if BTC is below 45,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 50,000
(Spot ref: 61,000)
• Yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes revealed a less dovish tone, bringing the Fed’s implied victory over inflation under question. Combined with last Friday’s strong payroll data, market has increased their bets of a 25bps rate cut in November to 83.7% chance from 67.9% last week.
• Tonight’s CPI and tomorrow’s PPI data will be key risk events for this week. Alongside major banks earnings report (JPM/WFC), they will be crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy amidst cooling inflation.
• While US equities indices rallied last night with the S&P 500 notching a new high, the same level of optimism was not seen in crypto as selling pressures reignited, possibly due to news of more Silk Road BTC selling and PlusToken ETH selling. We remain hopeful of an Uptober rally as long as the 60,000 key support level remains intact.
Trade Idea
With markets expecting more rate cuts ahead, we favour locking in yields at these depressed spot levels and position for a year-end rally.
FIXED COUPON CONVERTIBLE (FCC)
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 18OCT24
Coupon Rate: 28% p.a. if BTC/USD fixes above Coupon Level, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Level: Above 60,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection Level: 45,000
At expiry, if BTC is below 45,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 50,000
(Spot ref: 61,000)
👍8❤7
QCP Asia Colour - 14 Oct 24
- BTC rallied from 62k to 65k as almost 80m of BTC and ETH leveraged shorts got liquidated. Some may attribute today's rally to Mt. Gox postponing it's repayment deadline to Oct 2025 but that news was out on Friday.
- Although there could be many factors that could explain today's move, it is quite an interesting time if we look at historical price action. We are in the middle of October and just three weeks away from the US elections.
- If we look back to 2016, BTC was trading in a very tight range for more than 3 months. It wasn't until three weeks before US Election day that BTC began it's rally from 600 and finally doubling it's price by the first week of January.
- Similarly in 2020, BTC was stuck in a boring range for half a year and only started rallying from 11k just three weeks before US Election day, reaching a high of 42k by January.
- Uptober has been rather disappointing so far with BTC up just +1.2% vs an average of +21%. After months of trading in the range, will history repeat itself? Today's rally has definitely given the market a glimmer of hope just as Uptober optimism was fading.
Trade Idea
As spot pushes higher and the market sets its sights on take-profit targets for Q4, you can now squeeze out an additional 11.76% more profit by deploying our Profit Booster
Profit Booster
Sell BTC for 95k if BTC expires at-or-above 85k on 27-Dec.
Cost: Zero
- BTC rallied from 62k to 65k as almost 80m of BTC and ETH leveraged shorts got liquidated. Some may attribute today's rally to Mt. Gox postponing it's repayment deadline to Oct 2025 but that news was out on Friday.
- Although there could be many factors that could explain today's move, it is quite an interesting time if we look at historical price action. We are in the middle of October and just three weeks away from the US elections.
- If we look back to 2016, BTC was trading in a very tight range for more than 3 months. It wasn't until three weeks before US Election day that BTC began it's rally from 600 and finally doubling it's price by the first week of January.
- Similarly in 2020, BTC was stuck in a boring range for half a year and only started rallying from 11k just three weeks before US Election day, reaching a high of 42k by January.
- Uptober has been rather disappointing so far with BTC up just +1.2% vs an average of +21%. After months of trading in the range, will history repeat itself? Today's rally has definitely given the market a glimmer of hope just as Uptober optimism was fading.
Trade Idea
As spot pushes higher and the market sets its sights on take-profit targets for Q4, you can now squeeze out an additional 11.76% more profit by deploying our Profit Booster
Profit Booster
Sell BTC for 95k if BTC expires at-or-above 85k on 27-Dec.
Cost: Zero
👍14❤8🤯2
QCP Asia Colour - 15 Oct 24
BTC rose by another 2.4% since Monday’s commentary, mainly driven by spot demand, reaching 66.5k before settling near 65k.
This optimism is likely due to several factors:
1. The rally may be election-driven, initially sparked by Trump’s lead in prediction markets and polls, and further boosted by...
2. Kamala Harris’s pledge for a crypto regulatory framework signals a friendlier stance toward the industry, a notable shift from the Biden administration.
3. Disappointment with China’s latest stimulus may have led some speculators to shift capital from Chinese equities back into Bitcoin—a scenario we first anticipated in our October 8 Asia Colour [https://xn--r1a.website/QCPbroadcast/1335].
4. A residual boost from the Mt. Gox's repayment delay by another year, easing concerns of a supply overhang.
5. Reports suggesting that Israel may refrain from targeting Iran’s crude and nuclear infrastructure, reducing geopolitical risks.
Crypto Outlook
With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both increasingly viewed as pro-crypto, the election could be positive for the market regardless of the outcome.
The absence of major inflation or labor data in the near term presents an opportunity for crypto to rise with lower risk premiums. This outlook is further supported by the Bitcoin spot ETF, which recorded a net inflow of $555 million on Monday—the largest since June 4th.
Trade Idea
October seasonality often strengthens in the latter half of the month. We recommend deploying into high convexity trades with zero cost to ride the election optimism through the rest of Uptober.
BTC ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 25OCT24
Buy: 66k Call with 69k Knock-Out
Sell: 62k Put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $3k per BTC if spot price is just below 69k level at expiry.
Spot ref: 65,300
BTC rose by another 2.4% since Monday’s commentary, mainly driven by spot demand, reaching 66.5k before settling near 65k.
This optimism is likely due to several factors:
1. The rally may be election-driven, initially sparked by Trump’s lead in prediction markets and polls, and further boosted by...
2. Kamala Harris’s pledge for a crypto regulatory framework signals a friendlier stance toward the industry, a notable shift from the Biden administration.
3. Disappointment with China’s latest stimulus may have led some speculators to shift capital from Chinese equities back into Bitcoin—a scenario we first anticipated in our October 8 Asia Colour [https://xn--r1a.website/QCPbroadcast/1335].
4. A residual boost from the Mt. Gox's repayment delay by another year, easing concerns of a supply overhang.
5. Reports suggesting that Israel may refrain from targeting Iran’s crude and nuclear infrastructure, reducing geopolitical risks.
Crypto Outlook
With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both increasingly viewed as pro-crypto, the election could be positive for the market regardless of the outcome.
The absence of major inflation or labor data in the near term presents an opportunity for crypto to rise with lower risk premiums. This outlook is further supported by the Bitcoin spot ETF, which recorded a net inflow of $555 million on Monday—the largest since June 4th.
Trade Idea
October seasonality often strengthens in the latter half of the month. We recommend deploying into high convexity trades with zero cost to ride the election optimism through the rest of Uptober.
BTC ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 25OCT24
Buy: 66k Call with 69k Knock-Out
Sell: 62k Put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $3k per BTC if spot price is just below 69k level at expiry.
Spot ref: 65,300
Telegram
QCP Broadcast
QCP Asia Colour - 8 Oct 24
- The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index recorded its largest decline in a month.
- US equities also…
- The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index recorded its largest decline in a month.
- US equities also…
👍11❤6🔥4
QCP Asia Colour - 16 Oct 24
BTC continues to remain resilient above the 65k level as betting markets point to higher odds of Trump's win. Crypto assets have been positively correlated to a Trump victory as his crypto policies are much friendlier and more supportive than Kamala Harris'.
US Equities ended lower amid ongoing corporate earnings release season, in particular ASML's report. ASML's earnings and outlook points to a slowdown in chip demand, causing a selloff in semiconductor stocks like NVDA and AMD.
However, the downward move in US Equities did not weigh down BTC as it powered higher to break 67k. This reaffirms the bullish outlook going into 2025.
As central banks enter a rate-cutting cycle, liquidity in the markets will increase, fueling a potential rally in risk assets. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps tomorrow, while the PBoC continues to maintain a dovish stance. The Fed is expected to make two cuts this year, with four more anticipated in 2025.
Trade Idea
In this backdrop of heightened volatility and bullish momentum, QCP's Floating Rate Note (FRN) offers investors a unique opportunity to generate yield through perpetual funding payments, even while waiting for markets to turn decisively bullish.
This USDT-based note allows you to earn returns from perpetual funding rates in both volatile and flat markets, providing flexibility and liquidity during these pivotal moments.
ETH Floating Rate Note (FRN)
Index: Binance ETH-USDT Perp
Minimum Size: 100,000 USDT
Historical 30d Average: 7.6%
For more information about the FRN, reach out to our team at sales@qcp.capital, or if you're an onboarded client, feel free to chat with us via your dedicated trading channel.
BTC continues to remain resilient above the 65k level as betting markets point to higher odds of Trump's win. Crypto assets have been positively correlated to a Trump victory as his crypto policies are much friendlier and more supportive than Kamala Harris'.
US Equities ended lower amid ongoing corporate earnings release season, in particular ASML's report. ASML's earnings and outlook points to a slowdown in chip demand, causing a selloff in semiconductor stocks like NVDA and AMD.
However, the downward move in US Equities did not weigh down BTC as it powered higher to break 67k. This reaffirms the bullish outlook going into 2025.
As central banks enter a rate-cutting cycle, liquidity in the markets will increase, fueling a potential rally in risk assets. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps tomorrow, while the PBoC continues to maintain a dovish stance. The Fed is expected to make two cuts this year, with four more anticipated in 2025.
Trade Idea
In this backdrop of heightened volatility and bullish momentum, QCP's Floating Rate Note (FRN) offers investors a unique opportunity to generate yield through perpetual funding payments, even while waiting for markets to turn decisively bullish.
This USDT-based note allows you to earn returns from perpetual funding rates in both volatile and flat markets, providing flexibility and liquidity during these pivotal moments.
ETH Floating Rate Note (FRN)
Index: Binance ETH-USDT Perp
Minimum Size: 100,000 USDT
Historical 30d Average: 7.6%
For more information about the FRN, reach out to our team at sales@qcp.capital, or if you're an onboarded client, feel free to chat with us via your dedicated trading channel.
👍8🫡7❤5🔥2
QCP Asia Colour - 17 October 24
• BTC rallied 2.20% yesterday evening on the back of strong spot demand, briefly reclaiming the $68,000 handle before stabilising in the $67,000 region.
• The desk saw heavy buying on long-dated 28 Mar options during US trading hours, with 600 contracts at 120k strike. This signifies that optimistic, long-shot buyers are returning amid this rally.
• BTC spot ETF added $456.90 million yesterday, extending to a 4-day winning streak. The strong and growing inflows may be a leading indicator of further rallies as BTC heads back to its all-time-high of $73,790.
• While the US election is the next key catalyst for BTC and crypto, markets remain uncertain as to where BTC will go post election. Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.
Trade Idea
QCP's Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) was triggered last night, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility. Given the bullish outlook and spike in volatility, we prefer a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on upside convexity with zero downside.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80,000
Barrier: 90,000
Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD
Spot Ref: 67,150
• BTC rallied 2.20% yesterday evening on the back of strong spot demand, briefly reclaiming the $68,000 handle before stabilising in the $67,000 region.
• The desk saw heavy buying on long-dated 28 Mar options during US trading hours, with 600 contracts at 120k strike. This signifies that optimistic, long-shot buyers are returning amid this rally.
• BTC spot ETF added $456.90 million yesterday, extending to a 4-day winning streak. The strong and growing inflows may be a leading indicator of further rallies as BTC heads back to its all-time-high of $73,790.
• While the US election is the next key catalyst for BTC and crypto, markets remain uncertain as to where BTC will go post election. Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.
Trade Idea
QCP's Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) was triggered last night, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility. Given the bullish outlook and spike in volatility, we prefer a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on upside convexity with zero downside.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80,000
Barrier: 90,000
Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD
Spot Ref: 67,150
❤12👍2
QCP Weekend Summary – 19 Oct 24
This week was an exciting one for crypto. BTC rallied 10.48% to a high of 69,000, bringing the 70,000 psychological level into view. Without any key macro data serving as headwinds next week, will this rally continue?
BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week. It closed on Friday with $203.3 million in inflows and a 6-day winning streak. The consistent inflows into the ETF highlight that institutional demand remains strong. With this morning’s approval by the SEC’s approval for BTC ETF options to be listed on the NYSE, we believe this will provide the ETF with the needed liquidity to attract sustainable inflows.
Bitcoin dominance is currently at a multiyear high of 58%, a level last seen in April 2021. As it approaches key resistance at 60%, we believe this will set the stage for a strong recovery of L1 coins.
In Japan, inflation remains weak with headline inflation at 2.5%, down from 3.0%. Market expectations indicate that the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, contributing to a rally in USD/JPY, which is currently below 150.
With US equities close to all-time highs and the Japanese yen on a fresh weakening trend, risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative.
Trade Idea
With BTC being only 7.9% away from its all-time-high, ETH is long overdue for a strong recovery (45% below its all-time-high). As such, we favour trades with good topside convexity. With the forward basis also moving higher, the payoffs are likely to become more attractive.
ETH PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Max Payout: 88.16%
Strike: 3,600 ETH/USD
Barrier: 4,200 ETH/USD
Get paid up to 88.16% p.a. if ETH expires just below 4,200 at expiry.
Profit Booster
Squeeze out an additional 2.8% profit
Sell BTC for 72k if BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 25-Oct.
Cost: Zero
Spot Ref:
68,360 BTC/USD
2,640 ETH/USD
This week was an exciting one for crypto. BTC rallied 10.48% to a high of 69,000, bringing the 70,000 psychological level into view. Without any key macro data serving as headwinds next week, will this rally continue?
BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week. It closed on Friday with $203.3 million in inflows and a 6-day winning streak. The consistent inflows into the ETF highlight that institutional demand remains strong. With this morning’s approval by the SEC’s approval for BTC ETF options to be listed on the NYSE, we believe this will provide the ETF with the needed liquidity to attract sustainable inflows.
Bitcoin dominance is currently at a multiyear high of 58%, a level last seen in April 2021. As it approaches key resistance at 60%, we believe this will set the stage for a strong recovery of L1 coins.
In Japan, inflation remains weak with headline inflation at 2.5%, down from 3.0%. Market expectations indicate that the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, contributing to a rally in USD/JPY, which is currently below 150.
With US equities close to all-time highs and the Japanese yen on a fresh weakening trend, risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative.
Trade Idea
With BTC being only 7.9% away from its all-time-high, ETH is long overdue for a strong recovery (45% below its all-time-high). As such, we favour trades with good topside convexity. With the forward basis also moving higher, the payoffs are likely to become more attractive.
ETH PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Max Payout: 88.16%
Strike: 3,600 ETH/USD
Barrier: 4,200 ETH/USD
Get paid up to 88.16% p.a. if ETH expires just below 4,200 at expiry.
Profit Booster
Squeeze out an additional 2.8% profit
Sell BTC for 72k if BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 25-Oct.
Cost: Zero
Spot Ref:
68,360 BTC/USD
2,640 ETH/USD
👍7❤5🔥1
QCP Asia Colour - 21 Oct 24
- ETH played catch up to BTC over the weekend, as it rallied 2% during low liquidity hours on Sunday. Even though ETH outperformed BTC last week (11% gain vs 9.6%), it's still lagging behind BTC this Uptober (4% vs 8%).
- Both BTC and ETH have yet to clear July highs but are closing in on key 70k and 2800 resistance levels. A break above these levels is likely to attract massive retail attention. With the US elections just 15 days away and equities looking strong, the market is definitely optimistic as Risk Reversals have flipped in favour of Calls across all tenors.
- However with no major catalysts this week, we expect crypto to chop around these levels as it attempts to break higher. In terms of macro data, we only have PMI numbers on Thursday (24 Oct) where the market will look for some reassurance if the Fed will remain on their rate cut path.
Trade Idea
With ETH's surprise rally over the weekend, we definitely can't rule out another break higher. A break above 2800, could send ETH above 3000.
Trade the Uptober ETH Breakout with an ETH Call DIGI (3k 25-OCT)
Payout: 10x
(spot ref: 2700)
- ETH played catch up to BTC over the weekend, as it rallied 2% during low liquidity hours on Sunday. Even though ETH outperformed BTC last week (11% gain vs 9.6%), it's still lagging behind BTC this Uptober (4% vs 8%).
- Both BTC and ETH have yet to clear July highs but are closing in on key 70k and 2800 resistance levels. A break above these levels is likely to attract massive retail attention. With the US elections just 15 days away and equities looking strong, the market is definitely optimistic as Risk Reversals have flipped in favour of Calls across all tenors.
- However with no major catalysts this week, we expect crypto to chop around these levels as it attempts to break higher. In terms of macro data, we only have PMI numbers on Thursday (24 Oct) where the market will look for some reassurance if the Fed will remain on their rate cut path.
Trade Idea
With ETH's surprise rally over the weekend, we definitely can't rule out another break higher. A break above 2800, could send ETH above 3000.
Trade the Uptober ETH Breakout with an ETH Call DIGI (3k 25-OCT)
Payout: 10x
(spot ref: 2700)
❤🔥7❤2