QCP Asia Colour – 9 Sep 24
- Crypto has stabilized after last week's movement, but implied vols remain elevated. It seems the market is still anticipating potential volatility heading into this week's events, specifically the Trump v Harris debate (10 Sep, 9pm ET) and CPI (11 Sep, 830am ET).
- Given the velocity of last week's dip, the market is still very cautious about downside risk. Risk Reversals until October are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH.
- Even with all the near term noise and volatile price action, we remain structurally bullish. And it certainly looks like the market is also taking advantage of this leg lower to pile on more longer term bullish trades. This session we saw big buyers of 28MAR25 Calls (85k, 100k, 120k strikes).
Trade Idea
The bounce from 52.5k is definitely encouraging. So have we seen the bottom? Although we can't be certain, some institutions seem to think so as they take this opportunity to add to their bullish bets in Dec and Mar. With a ZERO cost ERKO Seagull, you will also be able to express your bullish view efficiently.
BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 42k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 239% pa or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 55,200)
- Crypto has stabilized after last week's movement, but implied vols remain elevated. It seems the market is still anticipating potential volatility heading into this week's events, specifically the Trump v Harris debate (10 Sep, 9pm ET) and CPI (11 Sep, 830am ET).
- Given the velocity of last week's dip, the market is still very cautious about downside risk. Risk Reversals until October are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH.
- Even with all the near term noise and volatile price action, we remain structurally bullish. And it certainly looks like the market is also taking advantage of this leg lower to pile on more longer term bullish trades. This session we saw big buyers of 28MAR25 Calls (85k, 100k, 120k strikes).
Trade Idea
The bounce from 52.5k is definitely encouraging. So have we seen the bottom? Although we can't be certain, some institutions seem to think so as they take this opportunity to add to their bullish bets in Dec and Mar. With a ZERO cost ERKO Seagull, you will also be able to express your bullish view efficiently.
BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 42k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 239% pa or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 55,200)
🥰11❤8
QCP Asia Colour – 10 Sep 24
- Macro uncertainty dominates the crypto market ahead of the presidential debate, with the 30-day correlation to the MSCI World Equity Index reaching 0.6, near a 2-year high.
- The desk saw heavy buying in the 11 Sep options, with 400 contracts at the 57.5k strike. The options market is implying a movement of more than 3.3% from the current spot of 56.8k by tomorrow's expiry post debate.
Trump vs. Harris Debate Preview:
-The market will be watching closely for Kamala's policy cues in her debut debate, especially in contrast to Trump's clearer stance on lowering corporate taxes and raising tariffs, both of which are seen as inflationary.
- While BTC is generally seen as the "Trump trade" due to his vocal support for crypto, we believe the real surprise could come from Harris if she brings up crypto positively during her campaign.
Trade Idea
Boosted by BTC spot ETF flows turning positive after an 8-day losing streak, we reiterate our structurally bullish stance in Q4. We favor earning stable yield while gaining upside convexity exposure at current spot levels.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 6% p.a. coupon if fixes between 60k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 80k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 59.7% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 20SEP24
Coupon Rate: 6% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 60,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 80,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 59.7% p.a.
Spot Ref: 56,800
- Macro uncertainty dominates the crypto market ahead of the presidential debate, with the 30-day correlation to the MSCI World Equity Index reaching 0.6, near a 2-year high.
- The desk saw heavy buying in the 11 Sep options, with 400 contracts at the 57.5k strike. The options market is implying a movement of more than 3.3% from the current spot of 56.8k by tomorrow's expiry post debate.
Trump vs. Harris Debate Preview:
-The market will be watching closely for Kamala's policy cues in her debut debate, especially in contrast to Trump's clearer stance on lowering corporate taxes and raising tariffs, both of which are seen as inflationary.
- While BTC is generally seen as the "Trump trade" due to his vocal support for crypto, we believe the real surprise could come from Harris if she brings up crypto positively during her campaign.
Trade Idea
Boosted by BTC spot ETF flows turning positive after an 8-day losing streak, we reiterate our structurally bullish stance in Q4. We favor earning stable yield while gaining upside convexity exposure at current spot levels.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 6% p.a. coupon if fixes between 60k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 80k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 59.7% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 20SEP24
Coupon Rate: 6% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 60,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 80,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 59.7% p.a.
Spot Ref: 56,800
❤14👍4
QCP Asia Colour – 11 Sep 24
Neither candidate provided a clear message on economic policy, but statements about 'eating the dogs' didn't go unnoticed. The crypto market was also disappointed by the lack of comments related to crypto policy.
Coming out of the debate, it appears that Harris won in the court of public opinion. Trump seemed notably flustered by Harris' remarks. Online betting sites saw the odds shift in Harris' favour after the debate.
The absence of a clear frontrunner in this election, coupled with the murky policy stances from both parties, heightens the possibility of a risk-off move in risk assets as we approach Election Day.
With this macro event behind us, attention now turns to tonight's CPI release. The market is expecting CPI to print at 2.55% v 2.9% previously. We find the chances of an upside surprise more likely. However, we anticipate minimal market impact from CPI as the focus has shifted to unemployment data.
Trade Idea
We prefer structures that earn yield in bullish scenarios. While we are cautious of higher volatility and potential downside movements given the macro uncertainty, we believe these uncertainties will resolve themselves in Q4.
CFCC
Earn weekly 55% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 55,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection: 45,000
Maturity: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, only if BTC is below 45k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 50k.
Neither candidate provided a clear message on economic policy, but statements about 'eating the dogs' didn't go unnoticed. The crypto market was also disappointed by the lack of comments related to crypto policy.
Coming out of the debate, it appears that Harris won in the court of public opinion. Trump seemed notably flustered by Harris' remarks. Online betting sites saw the odds shift in Harris' favour after the debate.
The absence of a clear frontrunner in this election, coupled with the murky policy stances from both parties, heightens the possibility of a risk-off move in risk assets as we approach Election Day.
With this macro event behind us, attention now turns to tonight's CPI release. The market is expecting CPI to print at 2.55% v 2.9% previously. We find the chances of an upside surprise more likely. However, we anticipate minimal market impact from CPI as the focus has shifted to unemployment data.
Trade Idea
We prefer structures that earn yield in bullish scenarios. While we are cautious of higher volatility and potential downside movements given the macro uncertainty, we believe these uncertainties will resolve themselves in Q4.
CFCC
Earn weekly 55% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 55,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection: 45,000
Maturity: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, only if BTC is below 45k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 50k.
👍11❤5👌3
QCP Asia Colour – 12 Sep 24
Last night's US CPI data matched expectations, with core CPI rising slightly to 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% estimate. This increased the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut to 85%, the highest in a month.
In crypto, BTC rebounded from intra-day losses to reclaim $57,000, signaling strong demand an increasingly bullish outlook. Options activity reflects this, with growing demand for Calls with Oct-Dec expiries.
BTC volatility dropped 12 points this week, driven by the CPI release and the presidential debate. With no major macro events in the near term, we expect vols to drift lower ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Trade Idea
Given the salient bullish economic events on the horizon, the market is gaining momentum with the upcoming rate cut and US Presidential Elections.
Election Ticket
Get 180% payout of your principal deployment if BTC fixes between 70k-80k on 8-Nov. Receive 80% back otherwise.
Maturity: 8-Nov
Range: 70,000 to 80,000 BTCUSD
Payout: 180%
Max loss: 20%
Last night's US CPI data matched expectations, with core CPI rising slightly to 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% estimate. This increased the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut to 85%, the highest in a month.
In crypto, BTC rebounded from intra-day losses to reclaim $57,000, signaling strong demand an increasingly bullish outlook. Options activity reflects this, with growing demand for Calls with Oct-Dec expiries.
BTC volatility dropped 12 points this week, driven by the CPI release and the presidential debate. With no major macro events in the near term, we expect vols to drift lower ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Trade Idea
Given the salient bullish economic events on the horizon, the market is gaining momentum with the upcoming rate cut and US Presidential Elections.
Election Ticket
Get 180% payout of your principal deployment if BTC fixes between 70k-80k on 8-Nov. Receive 80% back otherwise.
Maturity: 8-Nov
Range: 70,000 to 80,000 BTCUSD
Payout: 180%
Max loss: 20%
❤11👍3
QCP Weekend Summary - 14 SEP 24
US Presidential Race
- The debate between Trump and Harris was the highlight of the week, despite no mention of crypto.
- Harris putting her decades of experience as an attorney to good use during the debate, winning the endorsement of the clout wielding Taylor Swift.
- As of now, Harris has pulled ahead according to Polymarket, with slightly over 50% chance of being elected as the first female POTUS.
US Inflation
- CPI data on Wednesday came in inline with expectations (2.5% actual vs 2.5% expected), increasing the odds of a 25bps rate cut to 85%.
- However, core PPI (YoY) on Thursday came in 0.1% lower than expected (2.4% actual vs 2.5% expected), leading the market to shift and price a 50/50 chance of 25bps and 50bps cut.
- Gold continued its rally on the back of PPI data, pushing fresh all-time-highs.
Flows
- BTC ETF saw positive inflows 4 out of 5 days this week, with Friday printing +263.2m, in contrast to last week's nett outflow.
- Outflows from GBTC are slowing down, with inflows of 6.7m recorded on Friday. Could this be the end of GBTC supply?
- MicroStrategy announced on Friday that is has purchased an additional 18.3k BTC, bringing its total holdings to 244.8k BTC.
- Last night's rally to 60k liquidated almost 50m of short positions.
- The options market saw a sudden revival of ETH interest. With over 20k contracts being bought targeting 3k levels by 27-Dec.
Trade idea
Despite some short term uncertainty and potential drawdowns, we still favour locking in yields ahead of the rates cut and positioning for bullish scenarios.
CFCC
Receive weekly 65.6% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 60k.
Maturity: 27-Dec
Strike: 55k
Protection level: 50k
Coupon trigger: 60K
Coupon rate: 65.6% p.a.
At expiry, if BTC is below 50k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55k.
US Presidential Race
- The debate between Trump and Harris was the highlight of the week, despite no mention of crypto.
- Harris putting her decades of experience as an attorney to good use during the debate, winning the endorsement of the clout wielding Taylor Swift.
- As of now, Harris has pulled ahead according to Polymarket, with slightly over 50% chance of being elected as the first female POTUS.
US Inflation
- CPI data on Wednesday came in inline with expectations (2.5% actual vs 2.5% expected), increasing the odds of a 25bps rate cut to 85%.
- However, core PPI (YoY) on Thursday came in 0.1% lower than expected (2.4% actual vs 2.5% expected), leading the market to shift and price a 50/50 chance of 25bps and 50bps cut.
- Gold continued its rally on the back of PPI data, pushing fresh all-time-highs.
Flows
- BTC ETF saw positive inflows 4 out of 5 days this week, with Friday printing +263.2m, in contrast to last week's nett outflow.
- Outflows from GBTC are slowing down, with inflows of 6.7m recorded on Friday. Could this be the end of GBTC supply?
- MicroStrategy announced on Friday that is has purchased an additional 18.3k BTC, bringing its total holdings to 244.8k BTC.
- Last night's rally to 60k liquidated almost 50m of short positions.
- The options market saw a sudden revival of ETH interest. With over 20k contracts being bought targeting 3k levels by 27-Dec.
Trade idea
Despite some short term uncertainty and potential drawdowns, we still favour locking in yields ahead of the rates cut and positioning for bullish scenarios.
CFCC
Receive weekly 65.6% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 60k.
Maturity: 27-Dec
Strike: 55k
Protection level: 50k
Coupon trigger: 60K
Coupon rate: 65.6% p.a.
At expiry, if BTC is below 50k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55k.
❤14👍3🥰1
QCP Asia Colour – 16 Sep 24
- After struggling to break above 61k over the weekend, crypto dipped lower following a second assassination attempt on Trump. This downward move was worsened by the liquidation of nearly $70 million in long positions before the Asia open, where liquidity was thin.
- Despite a bearish start, it's worth noting that BTC rallied 13.8% from 58k to 66k during the same week as Trump's first assassination attempt on July 13.
- Could we see a similar recovery rally this week? It’s certainly an eventful week for crypto, with Token2049 ongoing and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18 Sep), where uncertainty remains around whether there will be a 25bps or 50bps cut.
- As we approach the first Fed rate cut of this cycle, market tensions are rising, amplifying the impact of any unexpected macro data. The probability of a 50bps cut has jumped to 59% from 30% last Monday. This is mirrored in increasing volatility, with Friday implied vols up 8 for BTC and 20 for ETH.
Trade Idea
With spot lower, skew is currently in favour of Puts. Take advantage of this Put skew to optimize a bullish trade for Q4 at zero cost with an ERKO Seagull.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell: 50k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 413% p.a. or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 58,300)
- After struggling to break above 61k over the weekend, crypto dipped lower following a second assassination attempt on Trump. This downward move was worsened by the liquidation of nearly $70 million in long positions before the Asia open, where liquidity was thin.
- Despite a bearish start, it's worth noting that BTC rallied 13.8% from 58k to 66k during the same week as Trump's first assassination attempt on July 13.
- Could we see a similar recovery rally this week? It’s certainly an eventful week for crypto, with Token2049 ongoing and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18 Sep), where uncertainty remains around whether there will be a 25bps or 50bps cut.
- As we approach the first Fed rate cut of this cycle, market tensions are rising, amplifying the impact of any unexpected macro data. The probability of a 50bps cut has jumped to 59% from 30% last Monday. This is mirrored in increasing volatility, with Friday implied vols up 8 for BTC and 20 for ETH.
Trade Idea
With spot lower, skew is currently in favour of Puts. Take advantage of this Put skew to optimize a bullish trade for Q4 at zero cost with an ERKO Seagull.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell: 50k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 413% p.a. or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 58,300)
❤14👍4🥰2
QCP Asia Colour – 18 Sep 24
The Fed meets today and its significance cannot be overstated. Their decision will shape the path of financial markets in the medium to long term.
Market participants are pricing in a 33% chance of 25bps and 66% chance of 50bps cut, based on Fed Fund Futures pricing.
However, economists polled by Bloomberg see a 25bps cut as more likely, with 104 out of 114 predicting this outcome. Only 9 out of 114 economist expect a 50bps cut. This divergence extends all the way out to 2026.
The direction and magnitude of market movements during and post FOMC remain unclear due to multiple layers of uncertainty:
1. Interest rate decision (25bps or 50bps cut)
2. Dot plot projections
3. Powell's press conference post-FOMC
That said, we are confident that volatility will be high in the days following the meeting, as traders readjust their positions over the next few weeks. The regime change could also signal the start of strong macro trends.
Trade Idea
The start of a rate cutting cycle aimed at normalizing interest rates supports hard assets as stores of value. While drawdowns and high volatility are expected, don't let that detract you from the path to higher BTC prices. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot ERKI
Maturity: 27JUN25
Return: >290% p.a. if BTC expires above 100k
Strike: 80,000
Knock-in: 100,000
ref: 59,600
The Fed meets today and its significance cannot be overstated. Their decision will shape the path of financial markets in the medium to long term.
Market participants are pricing in a 33% chance of 25bps and 66% chance of 50bps cut, based on Fed Fund Futures pricing.
However, economists polled by Bloomberg see a 25bps cut as more likely, with 104 out of 114 predicting this outcome. Only 9 out of 114 economist expect a 50bps cut. This divergence extends all the way out to 2026.
The direction and magnitude of market movements during and post FOMC remain unclear due to multiple layers of uncertainty:
1. Interest rate decision (25bps or 50bps cut)
2. Dot plot projections
3. Powell's press conference post-FOMC
That said, we are confident that volatility will be high in the days following the meeting, as traders readjust their positions over the next few weeks. The regime change could also signal the start of strong macro trends.
Trade Idea
The start of a rate cutting cycle aimed at normalizing interest rates supports hard assets as stores of value. While drawdowns and high volatility are expected, don't let that detract you from the path to higher BTC prices. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot ERKI
Maturity: 27JUN25
Return: >290% p.a. if BTC expires above 100k
Strike: 80,000
Knock-in: 100,000
ref: 59,600
❤14🎅4👍3
QCP Asia Colour - 19 Sep 24
The Fed announced a 50bps rate cut last night, with plans for two more cuts this year and four in 2025. Amidst Powell's ambiguity regarding the size and pace of subsequent cuts, all eyes will be on upcoming labour data for indications.
The US 2Y/10Y treasury spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022 but has recently steepened to +8bps, reflecting market optimism and a shift towards risk-on assets. The S&P 500 attempted to reach new highs but closed in the red post-FOMC.
On the options side, implied volatility collapsed following the FOMC meeting, with BTC down 19 vols and ETH down 18 vols. Post-FOMC, BTC rallied from 59k to 62k, while ETH trades around 2.4k.
Trade Idea
Given the drop in IV, we see an opportunity to buy topside exposure ahead of the elections as we expect volatility to surge as election day approaches, just after the next FOMC meeting.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 95k knock-out
Sell: 55k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 331% p.a. or $25k per BTC if spot price is just below 95k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 62,100)
The Fed announced a 50bps rate cut last night, with plans for two more cuts this year and four in 2025. Amidst Powell's ambiguity regarding the size and pace of subsequent cuts, all eyes will be on upcoming labour data for indications.
The US 2Y/10Y treasury spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022 but has recently steepened to +8bps, reflecting market optimism and a shift towards risk-on assets. The S&P 500 attempted to reach new highs but closed in the red post-FOMC.
On the options side, implied volatility collapsed following the FOMC meeting, with BTC down 19 vols and ETH down 18 vols. Post-FOMC, BTC rallied from 59k to 62k, while ETH trades around 2.4k.
Trade Idea
Given the drop in IV, we see an opportunity to buy topside exposure ahead of the elections as we expect volatility to surge as election day approaches, just after the next FOMC meeting.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 95k knock-out
Sell: 55k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 331% p.a. or $25k per BTC if spot price is just below 95k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 62,100)
❤14👍3🤯2
QCP Weekend Summary – 21 September 24
• Crypto rallied for a 3rd consecutive day yesterday with BTC making a retest of $64,000 and ETH reclaiming $2,500.
• This rally was supported by strong inflows into both BTC and ETH spot ETFs. BTC ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of $250.30 million over the past two days, while ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $8.10 million during the same period.
• With no major macroeconomic events expected this week until Friday's PCE price report, crypto prices may take a breather here as rate cuts euphoria fades. As of this morning, BTC has fallen below $63,000.
• On the options front, front-end BTC volatility dropped by 6 points from yesterday’s peak and continues to decline as the market adjusts to the ongoing path toward policy normalization.
What’s next?
In the current low-volatility and bullish environment, BTC win-range will be attractive for those looking to capitalize on upside convexity as we head into Uptober.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 5x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 5x
Maturity: 29NOV24
Range: 80k to 100k
(spot ref: 62,800)
• Crypto rallied for a 3rd consecutive day yesterday with BTC making a retest of $64,000 and ETH reclaiming $2,500.
• This rally was supported by strong inflows into both BTC and ETH spot ETFs. BTC ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of $250.30 million over the past two days, while ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $8.10 million during the same period.
• With no major macroeconomic events expected this week until Friday's PCE price report, crypto prices may take a breather here as rate cuts euphoria fades. As of this morning, BTC has fallen below $63,000.
• On the options front, front-end BTC volatility dropped by 6 points from yesterday’s peak and continues to decline as the market adjusts to the ongoing path toward policy normalization.
What’s next?
In the current low-volatility and bullish environment, BTC win-range will be attractive for those looking to capitalize on upside convexity as we head into Uptober.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 5x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 5x
Maturity: 29NOV24
Range: 80k to 100k
(spot ref: 62,800)
❤8👍5
QCP Asia Colour – 23 Sep 24
- A Harris win this election may not be as bearish as the market thinks. In another bid to win over the crypto vote, Kamala Harris vowed at a fundraiser over the weekend to help the crypto sector grow. This is on top of Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates working alongside her campaign's crypto policies.
- Harris' apparent pro-crypto flip together with macro tailwinds, gave crypto a boost to start the week which triggered almost 60m of short liquidations.
- Last week we mentioned that BTC could rally up to 13.8% from its lows of 57.5k. Since last Monday, BTC has recovered almost 12% and it looks poised to rally further.
- The usual frontend Put skew that we've been seeing over the past month is starting to normalize, as more buyers of topside and sellers of downside options emerged over the weekend.
- Even funding rates on major exchanges are improving, and basis yields are starting to look relatively more attractive, especially with the interest rate cuts.
Trade Idea:
If you would like to ride the bullish momentum into Q4, a Principal Protected Sharkfin offers a potential return of over 96% p.a with no downside.
BTC SHARKFIN
Max Payout: 96% p.a.
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80k
Barrier: 100k
(spot ref: 63,500)
- A Harris win this election may not be as bearish as the market thinks. In another bid to win over the crypto vote, Kamala Harris vowed at a fundraiser over the weekend to help the crypto sector grow. This is on top of Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates working alongside her campaign's crypto policies.
- Harris' apparent pro-crypto flip together with macro tailwinds, gave crypto a boost to start the week which triggered almost 60m of short liquidations.
- Last week we mentioned that BTC could rally up to 13.8% from its lows of 57.5k. Since last Monday, BTC has recovered almost 12% and it looks poised to rally further.
- The usual frontend Put skew that we've been seeing over the past month is starting to normalize, as more buyers of topside and sellers of downside options emerged over the weekend.
- Even funding rates on major exchanges are improving, and basis yields are starting to look relatively more attractive, especially with the interest rate cuts.
Trade Idea:
If you would like to ride the bullish momentum into Q4, a Principal Protected Sharkfin offers a potential return of over 96% p.a with no downside.
BTC SHARKFIN
Max Payout: 96% p.a.
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80k
Barrier: 100k
(spot ref: 63,500)
❤14👍5🔥5
QCP Asia Colour- 24 Sep 24
- The 4.15% rally in the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) today was driven by the PBoC's significant stimulus measures, marking a pivotal moment for global markets.
- The 50bps cut in Reserve Requirement Ratios (RRR) freeing up 1 Trillion Yuan for lending, coupled with a 500 Billion Yuan funding program for stock market investment, has sparked optimism across global markets.
- Commodity prices have responded positively, with Brent Crude (+2.35%) and Copper (+2.32%) both seeing notable gains, reflecting increased demand expectations tied to improved Chinese consumption.
- The strong policy action by China is on back of the Fed's 50bps cut, suggesting a continued wave of global easing that will provide strong support to asset prices in the near term.
- On the crypto front, this general bullish lift has seen a bigger boost in ETH price relative to BTC with the ETH/BTC cross trading from 0.038 on Friday, to 0.0415 today. Is this a sign of renewed confidence in ETH or merely higher beta from impaired liquidity?
- On the options side, front end skew for ETH has shifted from puts to calls, while ETH implied vol is trading 9% higher than BTC, suggesting both upside sentiment and higher expected volatility.
Trade Idea:
With global markets entering a rate-cut regime, we favour locking in strong yields with ETH CFCC, heading into year end.
ETH CFCC (27 Dec expiry)
Earn a weekly 82% pa coupon as long as ETH price is above 2,600
Strike: 2.500
Protection: 2,300
At expiry, only if ETH is below 2.3k, the USD deployed will be converted to ETH at 2.5k.
- The 4.15% rally in the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) today was driven by the PBoC's significant stimulus measures, marking a pivotal moment for global markets.
- The 50bps cut in Reserve Requirement Ratios (RRR) freeing up 1 Trillion Yuan for lending, coupled with a 500 Billion Yuan funding program for stock market investment, has sparked optimism across global markets.
- Commodity prices have responded positively, with Brent Crude (+2.35%) and Copper (+2.32%) both seeing notable gains, reflecting increased demand expectations tied to improved Chinese consumption.
- The strong policy action by China is on back of the Fed's 50bps cut, suggesting a continued wave of global easing that will provide strong support to asset prices in the near term.
- On the crypto front, this general bullish lift has seen a bigger boost in ETH price relative to BTC with the ETH/BTC cross trading from 0.038 on Friday, to 0.0415 today. Is this a sign of renewed confidence in ETH or merely higher beta from impaired liquidity?
- On the options side, front end skew for ETH has shifted from puts to calls, while ETH implied vol is trading 9% higher than BTC, suggesting both upside sentiment and higher expected volatility.
Trade Idea:
With global markets entering a rate-cut regime, we favour locking in strong yields with ETH CFCC, heading into year end.
ETH CFCC (27 Dec expiry)
Earn a weekly 82% pa coupon as long as ETH price is above 2,600
Strike: 2.500
Protection: 2,300
At expiry, only if ETH is below 2.3k, the USD deployed will be converted to ETH at 2.5k.
❤15👍4
QCP Asia Colour- 25 Sep 24
The macro space continues to look more and more bullish for risk assets, including crypto.
Yesterday, the PBoC introduced a slew of policies aimed at kickstarting their sputtering housing market and anemic equity market. It has apparently worked (for now) as Chinese A50 futures closed 8% higher, with Chinese and Hong Kong indices following suit.
The PBoC also announced an unprecedented 500bn RMB swap facility that allows non-bank financial institutions to buy Chinese shares. This facility was previously only available to national banks.
We believe more easing is coming from the PBoC, and they have communicated as much. Combined with the Fed joining the global cutting cycle, all major central banks (except BoJ) are now ready to inject more liquidity into the market.
We have seen the 2s10s spread (the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes) continue to widen over the past month, moving 40bps higher and now trading at 21bps. A widening spread generally suggests optimism about economic growth, which is supportive of risk assets in the medium to long term.
On the U.S. political front, Kamala Harris spoke positively about AI and digital assets at her fundraiser. We saw a rally in AI-related coins following her speech. The SEC approving options trading on IBIT (BlackRock's Spot BTC ETF) also shows the growing acceptance and demand for digital assets as an asset class.
Trade Idea:
"The most successful traders are those who can see the confluence of external factors before they fully impact the market." - George Soros
While there is currently a lack of idiosyncratic crypto factors driving prices, the stars are aligning in the macro environment, which could drive crypto prices higher. We know how explosive crypto prices can be, and with so many bullish catalysts, we think the next move higher will leave many people surprised and sidelined.
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 8x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 8x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 63,800)
BTC 27-Dec Seagull
Max payout: 261.65% if BTC spot price fixes at or above 100k at expiry.
Buy 2x 80k/100k call spread
Sell 60k put
Cost: ZERO
(spot ref: 63,800)
The macro space continues to look more and more bullish for risk assets, including crypto.
Yesterday, the PBoC introduced a slew of policies aimed at kickstarting their sputtering housing market and anemic equity market. It has apparently worked (for now) as Chinese A50 futures closed 8% higher, with Chinese and Hong Kong indices following suit.
The PBoC also announced an unprecedented 500bn RMB swap facility that allows non-bank financial institutions to buy Chinese shares. This facility was previously only available to national banks.
We believe more easing is coming from the PBoC, and they have communicated as much. Combined with the Fed joining the global cutting cycle, all major central banks (except BoJ) are now ready to inject more liquidity into the market.
We have seen the 2s10s spread (the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes) continue to widen over the past month, moving 40bps higher and now trading at 21bps. A widening spread generally suggests optimism about economic growth, which is supportive of risk assets in the medium to long term.
On the U.S. political front, Kamala Harris spoke positively about AI and digital assets at her fundraiser. We saw a rally in AI-related coins following her speech. The SEC approving options trading on IBIT (BlackRock's Spot BTC ETF) also shows the growing acceptance and demand for digital assets as an asset class.
Trade Idea:
"The most successful traders are those who can see the confluence of external factors before they fully impact the market." - George Soros
While there is currently a lack of idiosyncratic crypto factors driving prices, the stars are aligning in the macro environment, which could drive crypto prices higher. We know how explosive crypto prices can be, and with so many bullish catalysts, we think the next move higher will leave many people surprised and sidelined.
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 8x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 8x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 63,800)
BTC 27-Dec Seagull
Max payout: 261.65% if BTC spot price fixes at or above 100k at expiry.
Buy 2x 80k/100k call spread
Sell 60k put
Cost: ZERO
(spot ref: 63,800)
❤17👍5🔥3
QCP Asia Colour- 26 Sep 24
• Crypto continues to consolidate below the key level of 64,000 amidst a lack of macro catalysts from the U.S. BTC remains range-bound between 62,000 and 64,000, while ETH is trading at the low end of 2,600.
• Micron (MU) surged 16% before the opening bell today due to the upward revision of their revenue forecast for Q4. The market anticipates other chip players such as Nvidia (NVDA) to follow suit. Given how the rally in Nvidia’s stocks often lead to a rally in crypto, could this spark the catalyst required to pull BTC above 64,000?
• Key macro events to watch today include the U.S. GDP reading and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The market will be following Powell’s speech closely for indications of any shifts in sentiment following last Thursday’s FOMC press conference, which signaled potential for further easing.
• Overnight, presidential candidate Kamala Harris reaffirmed her support for cryptocurrencies for the second time this week, promising to position the U.S. as a dominant power in “AI, quantum computing, and blockchain.” She also reiterated the inclusion of “digital assets” in her economic plan.
Trade Idea
With both presidential candidates pledging their support for crypto, the election of either candidate would be a win for the crypto ecosystem in the U.S. As central banks globally begin easing rate cycles, the anticipated influx of liquidity is likely to drive crypto prices higher. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot Sharkfin
Max Payout: 105.59% p.a.
Maturity: 28MAR25
Strike: 85,000
Barrier: 130,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
Elections - Trump vs Harris Showdown
Make 401.4% p.a. returns if BTC expires at 80k on Election Week (08-Nov).
Maturity: 08NOV24
Sell 1x BTC 62k Put
Buy 3x BTC 70k/80k/90k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 401.4% p.a. or $30,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 80k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 62,000, you buy BTC at 62,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
• Crypto continues to consolidate below the key level of 64,000 amidst a lack of macro catalysts from the U.S. BTC remains range-bound between 62,000 and 64,000, while ETH is trading at the low end of 2,600.
• Micron (MU) surged 16% before the opening bell today due to the upward revision of their revenue forecast for Q4. The market anticipates other chip players such as Nvidia (NVDA) to follow suit. Given how the rally in Nvidia’s stocks often lead to a rally in crypto, could this spark the catalyst required to pull BTC above 64,000?
• Key macro events to watch today include the U.S. GDP reading and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The market will be following Powell’s speech closely for indications of any shifts in sentiment following last Thursday’s FOMC press conference, which signaled potential for further easing.
• Overnight, presidential candidate Kamala Harris reaffirmed her support for cryptocurrencies for the second time this week, promising to position the U.S. as a dominant power in “AI, quantum computing, and blockchain.” She also reiterated the inclusion of “digital assets” in her economic plan.
Trade Idea
With both presidential candidates pledging their support for crypto, the election of either candidate would be a win for the crypto ecosystem in the U.S. As central banks globally begin easing rate cycles, the anticipated influx of liquidity is likely to drive crypto prices higher. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot Sharkfin
Max Payout: 105.59% p.a.
Maturity: 28MAR25
Strike: 85,000
Barrier: 130,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
Elections - Trump vs Harris Showdown
Make 401.4% p.a. returns if BTC expires at 80k on Election Week (08-Nov).
Maturity: 08NOV24
Sell 1x BTC 62k Put
Buy 3x BTC 70k/80k/90k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 401.4% p.a. or $30,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 80k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 62,000, you buy BTC at 62,000
(spot ref: 63,800)
👍10❤4❤🔥3
QCP Weekend Summary - 28 Sep 24
This week, the market experienced a significant rally in risk assets, primarily driven by the PBoC's stimulus aimed at revitalizing the Chinese economy. This followed the Fed's announcement of a 50bps rate cut, which has set a positive tone for global markets.
In Japan, political developments have also shifted market sentiment. Ishiba, a vocal critic of the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policies, is poised to become the new PM. This has shifted market expectations away from BoJ's low interest rate stance, adding another layer of complexity to the financial landscape.
The Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, reported a softer-than-expected increase of 2.6% YoY (forecasted 2.7% YoY). This has increased the market's anticipation of a potential 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, with probabilities now at 53% for 50bps versus 47% for 25bps. Following this data, the DOW closed at a record high, climbing 137.89 points.
As we head into next week, the key focus will be on upcoming labour market indicators, including JOLTs, ADP, and the U.S unemployment rate. Strong performance in these metrics could bolster the case for a 50bps cut in November, further propelling risk assets.
On the crypto front, BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week, closing Friday with $494.4m inflows. Despite lacklustre flows into ETH ETF as of late, we observed ETH ETF picking up and closing Friday with $58.7m inflows. BTC has reclaimed the 66k mark, while ETH is trading around 2.7k. Implied volatility for ETH remains elevated (by 8%) compared to BTC, while ETH/BTC remains steady above the 0.04 mark.
Trade Idea
While the stars are aligned for risk assets to rally heading into Q4, we favor topside structures that offer high payouts as we remain bullish heading into the next quarter.
Election Ticket
Expiry: 8 Nov 24
Sell 1x BTC 64k Put
Buy 18x BTC 70k/72k/74k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 488.8% p.a. or $36,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 72k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 64,000, you buy BTC at 64,000
This week, the market experienced a significant rally in risk assets, primarily driven by the PBoC's stimulus aimed at revitalizing the Chinese economy. This followed the Fed's announcement of a 50bps rate cut, which has set a positive tone for global markets.
In Japan, political developments have also shifted market sentiment. Ishiba, a vocal critic of the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policies, is poised to become the new PM. This has shifted market expectations away from BoJ's low interest rate stance, adding another layer of complexity to the financial landscape.
The Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, reported a softer-than-expected increase of 2.6% YoY (forecasted 2.7% YoY). This has increased the market's anticipation of a potential 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, with probabilities now at 53% for 50bps versus 47% for 25bps. Following this data, the DOW closed at a record high, climbing 137.89 points.
As we head into next week, the key focus will be on upcoming labour market indicators, including JOLTs, ADP, and the U.S unemployment rate. Strong performance in these metrics could bolster the case for a 50bps cut in November, further propelling risk assets.
On the crypto front, BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week, closing Friday with $494.4m inflows. Despite lacklustre flows into ETH ETF as of late, we observed ETH ETF picking up and closing Friday with $58.7m inflows. BTC has reclaimed the 66k mark, while ETH is trading around 2.7k. Implied volatility for ETH remains elevated (by 8%) compared to BTC, while ETH/BTC remains steady above the 0.04 mark.
Trade Idea
While the stars are aligned for risk assets to rally heading into Q4, we favor topside structures that offer high payouts as we remain bullish heading into the next quarter.
Election Ticket
Expiry: 8 Nov 24
Sell 1x BTC 64k Put
Buy 18x BTC 70k/72k/74k Call Fly
Cost: Zero
Max Return: 488.8% p.a. or $36,000 USD per BTC if spot expires AT 72k
Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 64,000, you buy BTC at 64,000
❤20👍7🔥2🍾1🫡1
QCP Asia Colour - 30 Sep 24
As Q3 concludes, both equities and Bitcoin have outperformed their expectations, defying their usual September downturn:
- The S&P 500 is up 5.1% for the quarter, marking its best year-to-date performance since 1997.
- Bitcoin has surged over 7% this month, on track for one of its strongest September performance on record.
- Global risk-on sentiment remains strong as we enter Uptober, with China's CSI 300 Index jumping by 9% today after introducing its largest property support package in years. Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage desk shows hedge funds positioning with three times as many bets on rising IT stocks compared to falling ones.
Crypto Market Outlook
This equity-led rally may be tested when Q3 earnings kick off in mid-October as traders reassess the current lofty valuations. We expect Bitcoin to benefit from any equity retracement due to its nature as a risk-on asset amidst global monetary easing.
Trade Idea
BTC may continue to trade within its current range, as historically, significant profit-taking transactions have occurred at these levels. However, we maintain a positive medium-term outlook. A breakout above 70k could trigger further upside momentum.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 5% p.a. coupon if fixes between 62k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 76k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 35.3% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 11OCT24
Coupon Rate: 5% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 62,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 76,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 35.3% p.a.
Spot Ref: 63,300
As Q3 concludes, both equities and Bitcoin have outperformed their expectations, defying their usual September downturn:
- The S&P 500 is up 5.1% for the quarter, marking its best year-to-date performance since 1997.
- Bitcoin has surged over 7% this month, on track for one of its strongest September performance on record.
- Global risk-on sentiment remains strong as we enter Uptober, with China's CSI 300 Index jumping by 9% today after introducing its largest property support package in years. Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage desk shows hedge funds positioning with three times as many bets on rising IT stocks compared to falling ones.
Crypto Market Outlook
This equity-led rally may be tested when Q3 earnings kick off in mid-October as traders reassess the current lofty valuations. We expect Bitcoin to benefit from any equity retracement due to its nature as a risk-on asset amidst global monetary easing.
Trade Idea
BTC may continue to trade within its current range, as historically, significant profit-taking transactions have occurred at these levels. However, we maintain a positive medium-term outlook. A breakout above 70k could trigger further upside momentum.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 5% p.a. coupon if fixes between 62k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 76k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 35.3% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 11OCT24
Coupon Rate: 5% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 62,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 76,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 35.3% p.a.
Spot Ref: 63,300
👍8❤1🔥1
QCP Asia Colour - 1 Oct 24
- We're finally in "Uptober". Historically, October is a bullish month, with BTC having an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers. A similar increase would take us above 78k, breaking all-time highs.
- While ETH also tends to perform well in October, its average returns over the past 8 Octobers have been approximately 5%. However, we observed a significant amount of ETH October Calls being purchased this morning.
- BTC has been trading within the 60k-70k range for 8 months now. Will Uptober be the month we finally see a big breakout? The market is considering this possibility, especially with the US elections around the corner. Spot ETF inflows remain consistently positive, and perp funding is approaching levels reminiscent of Q1's bull run.
Trade Idea
Trade the Uptober ATH Breakout with a BTC Call DIGI (75k 25-OCT)
Payout: 6.5x
(spot ref: 64k)
- We're finally in "Uptober". Historically, October is a bullish month, with BTC having an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers. A similar increase would take us above 78k, breaking all-time highs.
- While ETH also tends to perform well in October, its average returns over the past 8 Octobers have been approximately 5%. However, we observed a significant amount of ETH October Calls being purchased this morning.
- BTC has been trading within the 60k-70k range for 8 months now. Will Uptober be the month we finally see a big breakout? The market is considering this possibility, especially with the US elections around the corner. Spot ETF inflows remain consistently positive, and perp funding is approaching levels reminiscent of Q1's bull run.
Trade Idea
Trade the Uptober ATH Breakout with a BTC Call DIGI (75k 25-OCT)
Payout: 6.5x
(spot ref: 64k)
❤17👍9🔥1🫡1
QCP Asia Colour - 2 Oct 24
The Israeli-Iranian conflict has intensified. Earlier this week, Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon and Iran responded by launching over 180 missiles yesterday. However, the risk off move in TradFi assets was minimal. The S&P closed 1% lower, WTI closed 2% higher, and we're seeing minimal follow through in price action today.
Crypto, however, was hit much harder with BTC closing 4% lower. We seem to have found some support at the 60k level, but further escalation could push us much lower, possibly to the 55k level.
Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets. This minor setback shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.
Policy actions and the economic situation in China are reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s. To combat deflation in Japan, the BoJ cut rates, introduced Negative Interest Rates and started the then novel Quantitative Easing Program. The flush of liquidity from the PBoC and potential fiscal support will likely support asset prices in China, with bullish sentiment potentially spilling over globally to support risk assets, including crypto.
In his recent Q&A, Powell was supportive of further rate cuts in 2024. Assets prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Fed) and 3rd largest (PBoC) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 9x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 9x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 61,700)
The Israeli-Iranian conflict has intensified. Earlier this week, Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon and Iran responded by launching over 180 missiles yesterday. However, the risk off move in TradFi assets was minimal. The S&P closed 1% lower, WTI closed 2% higher, and we're seeing minimal follow through in price action today.
Crypto, however, was hit much harder with BTC closing 4% lower. We seem to have found some support at the 60k level, but further escalation could push us much lower, possibly to the 55k level.
Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets. This minor setback shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.
Policy actions and the economic situation in China are reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s. To combat deflation in Japan, the BoJ cut rates, introduced Negative Interest Rates and started the then novel Quantitative Easing Program. The flush of liquidity from the PBoC and potential fiscal support will likely support asset prices in China, with bullish sentiment potentially spilling over globally to support risk assets, including crypto.
In his recent Q&A, Powell was supportive of further rate cuts in 2024. Assets prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Fed) and 3rd largest (PBoC) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 9x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 9x
Maturity: 27DEC24
Range: 90k to 110k
(spot ref: 61,700)
❤15👍5👌3
QCP Asia Colour - 3 Oct 24
Markets remain tense as the world awaits Israel's response to Iran's missile strike on Tuesday. Crypto saw another selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $59,972 and Ethereum (ETH) falling below $2,400. BTC's lower-low and lower-high suggest a short-term bearish outlook.
We believe this weakness is temporary, given the strong correlation between crypto and U.S. stocks. As U.S. equities recover, crypto is likely to follow. This correlation highlights that macroeconomic factors are currently the main drivers of risk asset prices.
With the ADP payroll report beating expectations, tomorrow's non-farm payroll report will be key in confirming a strong U.S. labor market. A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets.
Trade Idea
Despite Middle Eastern tensions impacting Bitcoin during its historically strong month, we see this dip as temporary and expect the "Uptober" rally to prevail. We favor a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on the expected bullish momentum.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 88,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 74.43% p.a. if spot expires just below 88,000 BTCUSD
(spot ref: 60,200)
Markets remain tense as the world awaits Israel's response to Iran's missile strike on Tuesday. Crypto saw another selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $59,972 and Ethereum (ETH) falling below $2,400. BTC's lower-low and lower-high suggest a short-term bearish outlook.
We believe this weakness is temporary, given the strong correlation between crypto and U.S. stocks. As U.S. equities recover, crypto is likely to follow. This correlation highlights that macroeconomic factors are currently the main drivers of risk asset prices.
With the ADP payroll report beating expectations, tomorrow's non-farm payroll report will be key in confirming a strong U.S. labor market. A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets.
Trade Idea
Despite Middle Eastern tensions impacting Bitcoin during its historically strong month, we see this dip as temporary and expect the "Uptober" rally to prevail. We favor a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on the expected bullish momentum.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 88,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 74.43% p.a. if spot expires just below 88,000 BTCUSD
(spot ref: 60,200)
👍11❤5🥰2🐳1
QCP Weekend Summary – 05 October 24
- The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the outbreak of the Gaza war) and scale of Iran’s attack, market is expecting Israel’s retaliation to be more critical as they target key infrastructures such as Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.
- Friday’s non-farm payrolls printed 254,000, smashing expectations at 150,000. US unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (est. 4.2%). The strong data reflects a robust labour market despite last month’s dismal print.
- A resilient labour market coupled with the possibility of additional rate cuts later this year have boosted risk assets, with BTC briefly reclaiming $62,000.
- Options market activity continues to grow as as we enter Q4 with demand for December calls still building up, highlighting market’s bullish view towards the end of the year.
- With BTC down approximately 5% from last week's highs, we believe the recent positive macro data supports our view of the long-awaited "Uptober" trend.
Trade Idea
With Geopolitical risk being the biggest concern now till US elections, we favour locking in yields at the these spot levels to allow the dust to settle and position for a rally into the year end.
BTC CFCC
Receive weekly 37% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 58,500
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Rate: 37% p.a.
Coupon Level: Above 58,500
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 50,000
At expiry, if BTC is below 50,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55,000
(Spot ref: 62,250)
- The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the outbreak of the Gaza war) and scale of Iran’s attack, market is expecting Israel’s retaliation to be more critical as they target key infrastructures such as Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.
- Friday’s non-farm payrolls printed 254,000, smashing expectations at 150,000. US unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (est. 4.2%). The strong data reflects a robust labour market despite last month’s dismal print.
- A resilient labour market coupled with the possibility of additional rate cuts later this year have boosted risk assets, with BTC briefly reclaiming $62,000.
- Options market activity continues to grow as as we enter Q4 with demand for December calls still building up, highlighting market’s bullish view towards the end of the year.
- With BTC down approximately 5% from last week's highs, we believe the recent positive macro data supports our view of the long-awaited "Uptober" trend.
Trade Idea
With Geopolitical risk being the biggest concern now till US elections, we favour locking in yields at the these spot levels to allow the dust to settle and position for a rally into the year end.
BTC CFCC
Receive weekly 37% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 58,500
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Rate: 37% p.a.
Coupon Level: Above 58,500
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 50,000
At expiry, if BTC is below 50,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55,000
(Spot ref: 62,250)
❤11👍2👌2
QCP Asia Colour - 7 Oct 24
- After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday.
- The Uptober narrative coupled with strong NFP numbers has helped BTC find strong support around 60k. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary has also brought more mainstream attention to crypto as memecoins themed after Len Sasssaman are also starting to gain traction.
- Despite the rough start last week, options flows are still pointing to a bullish Q4 as we continue to see buyers of Dec 75k/95k CSpds. With additional rate cuts lined up and BTC's strong correlation to equities, we still remain optimistic of a strong October.
- That being said, all eyes are on US CPI this Thursday. With the recent strong US wage and jobs numbers, the market will be paying close attention to this print for any signs of an uptick in inflation. Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from 50 bps to 25 bps in just a week and this week's data may determine if further cuts get priced out.
Trade Idea
Throughout last week we still saw significant buyers of BTC Dec CSpds. Instead of spending premiums on Call Spreads, you can gain similar topside exposure with a zero cost Principal Protected Sharkfin.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 90,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 90% p.a. if spot expires just below 90k.
(spot ref: 63,500)
- After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday.
- The Uptober narrative coupled with strong NFP numbers has helped BTC find strong support around 60k. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary has also brought more mainstream attention to crypto as memecoins themed after Len Sasssaman are also starting to gain traction.
- Despite the rough start last week, options flows are still pointing to a bullish Q4 as we continue to see buyers of Dec 75k/95k CSpds. With additional rate cuts lined up and BTC's strong correlation to equities, we still remain optimistic of a strong October.
- That being said, all eyes are on US CPI this Thursday. With the recent strong US wage and jobs numbers, the market will be paying close attention to this print for any signs of an uptick in inflation. Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from 50 bps to 25 bps in just a week and this week's data may determine if further cuts get priced out.
Trade Idea
Throughout last week we still saw significant buyers of BTC Dec CSpds. Instead of spending premiums on Call Spreads, you can gain similar topside exposure with a zero cost Principal Protected Sharkfin.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 90,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 90% p.a. if spot expires just below 90k.
(spot ref: 63,500)
❤🔥8❤7👍5🥰3🤯1
QCP Asia Colour - 8 Oct 24
- The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index recorded its largest decline in a month.
- US equities also declined overnight, driven by megacap tech stocks and rising geopolitical tensions, with the VIX rising to 22 points. Interestingly, crypto volatility remained stable, with front-end implied vols trading at 43%, a 3-vol discount to 7-day historical realized volatility.
- Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases since the end of September, while BTC stayed flat.
- As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry’s growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset.
Trade Idea
We foresee near-term downside risk for equities due to upcoming earnings season and CPI release, which may challenge their lofty valuations. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook.
However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting election headlines to continue driving crypto movement. This was evidenced by Elon Musk’s remark on Polymarket, where Trump was predicted to lead Harris with greater accuracy than traditional polls - an event that coincided with BTC's upward movement during the US open last night.
Bearish ERKO Put (25-Oct)
Strike: 60,000
Knock-out: 55,000
Cost: 1,090 USD per
Max payout: 4.59x if fixes just above 55,000 at expiry
Bullish ERKO Call (29-Nov)
Strike: 65,000
Knock-out: 75,000
Cost: 1,630 USD per
Max payout: 6.13x if fixes just below 75,000 at expiry
Spot Ref: 62,260
- The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index recorded its largest decline in a month.
- US equities also declined overnight, driven by megacap tech stocks and rising geopolitical tensions, with the VIX rising to 22 points. Interestingly, crypto volatility remained stable, with front-end implied vols trading at 43%, a 3-vol discount to 7-day historical realized volatility.
- Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases since the end of September, while BTC stayed flat.
- As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry’s growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset.
Trade Idea
We foresee near-term downside risk for equities due to upcoming earnings season and CPI release, which may challenge their lofty valuations. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook.
However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting election headlines to continue driving crypto movement. This was evidenced by Elon Musk’s remark on Polymarket, where Trump was predicted to lead Harris with greater accuracy than traditional polls - an event that coincided with BTC's upward movement during the US open last night.
Bearish ERKO Put (25-Oct)
Strike: 60,000
Knock-out: 55,000
Cost: 1,090 USD per
Max payout: 4.59x if fixes just above 55,000 at expiry
Bullish ERKO Call (29-Nov)
Strike: 65,000
Knock-out: 75,000
Cost: 1,630 USD per
Max payout: 6.13x if fixes just below 75,000 at expiry
Spot Ref: 62,260
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