QCP Asia Colour – 26 Aug 2024
- Post-Jackson Hole, the desk saw aggressive Call Spread buying, but also witnessed heavy selling of calls around the 100k strike out to Mar 2025. Does this mean that the market is bullish but not expecting a blow-out move so soon?
- Even with higher spot, BTC and ETH vols are currently more skewed for Puts than Calls till Oct. This is surprising given the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment. It possibly indicates that the market was well positioned for this move and was very quick to take profit by selling calls.
- While the move higher in price has been decisive, the vols are indicating hesitation in the market. As front-end vols drift lower, it is likely that BTC spot will continue to chop around the 62k-67k range in the near term.
- NVIDIA earnings (28 Aug) and US PCE (30 Aug) are due this week but we do not foresee any major surprises from these risk events.
Trade Idea:
The trend is your friend. Put on some bullish trades for Q4. Optimize upside with zero cost ERKO Seagulls.
BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 75k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 50k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 148.4% pa or $25k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 64,000)
- Post-Jackson Hole, the desk saw aggressive Call Spread buying, but also witnessed heavy selling of calls around the 100k strike out to Mar 2025. Does this mean that the market is bullish but not expecting a blow-out move so soon?
- Even with higher spot, BTC and ETH vols are currently more skewed for Puts than Calls till Oct. This is surprising given the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment. It possibly indicates that the market was well positioned for this move and was very quick to take profit by selling calls.
- While the move higher in price has been decisive, the vols are indicating hesitation in the market. As front-end vols drift lower, it is likely that BTC spot will continue to chop around the 62k-67k range in the near term.
- NVIDIA earnings (28 Aug) and US PCE (30 Aug) are due this week but we do not foresee any major surprises from these risk events.
Trade Idea:
The trend is your friend. Put on some bullish trades for Q4. Optimize upside with zero cost ERKO Seagulls.
BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 75k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 50k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 148.4% pa or $25k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 64,000)
❤17👍6❤🔥1
QCP Asia Colour – 27 Aug 24
- Beyond the headline figures, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has reached an all-time high as bullish momentum broadens beyond just the Magnificent 7.
- Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-caps in 2 out of the last 3 rate cut regimes. Given the growing correlation between crypto and small-cap equities, could BTC outperform other risk assets?
What is the crypto market whispering?
- BTC spot ETFs have seen strong inflows for 12 consecutive days, while ETH spot ETFs have faced outflows for 8 days. BTC's dominance in the options market reflects the macro-driven nature of the current rate-cut regime.
- On the options desk, we're seeing modest call spread buying, while front-end vols have dropped. These signals suggest cautious optimism, and we don’t anticipate significant movement this week as markets await clarity on the extent of the September rate cut.
Trade Ideas
Ride out the rest of Q3 by accumulating BTC spot at 8.27% discount (57,600) every week as long as spot is below 67,000.
BTC ACCUMULATOR
Maturity: 1NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 57,600 (-8.27%)
Upper Barrier: 67,000 (+6.7%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot ref: 62,780 BTCUSD
To learn more about what QCP can do for you, visit our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=marketinsights270824&utm_content=learnmore
- Beyond the headline figures, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has reached an all-time high as bullish momentum broadens beyond just the Magnificent 7.
- Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-caps in 2 out of the last 3 rate cut regimes. Given the growing correlation between crypto and small-cap equities, could BTC outperform other risk assets?
What is the crypto market whispering?
- BTC spot ETFs have seen strong inflows for 12 consecutive days, while ETH spot ETFs have faced outflows for 8 days. BTC's dominance in the options market reflects the macro-driven nature of the current rate-cut regime.
- On the options desk, we're seeing modest call spread buying, while front-end vols have dropped. These signals suggest cautious optimism, and we don’t anticipate significant movement this week as markets await clarity on the extent of the September rate cut.
Trade Ideas
Ride out the rest of Q3 by accumulating BTC spot at 8.27% discount (57,600) every week as long as spot is below 67,000.
BTC ACCUMULATOR
Maturity: 1NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 57,600 (-8.27%)
Upper Barrier: 67,000 (+6.7%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot ref: 62,780 BTCUSD
To learn more about what QCP can do for you, visit our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=marketinsights270824&utm_content=learnmore
QCP Group
QCP - Asia's leading digital asset partner
We offer a range of tailored derivatives and spot trading as well as structured solutions to institutional, professional and accredited investors.
👍8❤6❤🔥2
QCP Asia Colour – 28 Aug 24
Powell was decidedly dovish during Jackson Hole, stating that the 'time has come' to lower interest rates to avoid the job from market cooling too much.
Last week's job revision of -800k added to this risk. We believe that the Fed's reaction function is now more skewed towards preventing a job market collapse, and the bar for a 50bps cut in Sep is much much lower.
The market is currently pricing in 4 cuts in 2024, despite only 3 meetings left.
US equity markets have been resilient, approaching ATHs. However, we remain cautious that US equities might peak again here, given declining trading volumes and NVDA earnings today. NVDA options are pricing up to a 10% move higher tonight.
We believe that any dip in equities (and crypto) will be short-lived. With Powell and the Fed ready to kickstart a rate-cutting cycle, increased liquidity will eventually push risk assets higher. We are finally on the cusp of a rate-cutting cycle.
Trade Idea
It's not about timing the market, but about time in the market. Given the crosswinds we face right now, timing the next rally is difficult. We prefer products that provide both yield and some upside convexity to capitalize on the move when it happens.
FIXED COUPON CONVERTIBLE (FCC)
Maturity: 8NOV24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 6SEP24
Coupon Rate: 30% p.a. if BTC/USD fixes above Coupon Level, 0% p.a. otherwise
Coupon Level: Above 55,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection Level: 46,000
Redemption: 100% in USD if BTC/USD fixes above Protection Level, 100% in BTC converted at the strike rate otherwise
To learn more about what QCP can do for you, visit our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=marketinsights280824&utm_content=learnmore
Powell was decidedly dovish during Jackson Hole, stating that the 'time has come' to lower interest rates to avoid the job from market cooling too much.
Last week's job revision of -800k added to this risk. We believe that the Fed's reaction function is now more skewed towards preventing a job market collapse, and the bar for a 50bps cut in Sep is much much lower.
The market is currently pricing in 4 cuts in 2024, despite only 3 meetings left.
US equity markets have been resilient, approaching ATHs. However, we remain cautious that US equities might peak again here, given declining trading volumes and NVDA earnings today. NVDA options are pricing up to a 10% move higher tonight.
We believe that any dip in equities (and crypto) will be short-lived. With Powell and the Fed ready to kickstart a rate-cutting cycle, increased liquidity will eventually push risk assets higher. We are finally on the cusp of a rate-cutting cycle.
Trade Idea
It's not about timing the market, but about time in the market. Given the crosswinds we face right now, timing the next rally is difficult. We prefer products that provide both yield and some upside convexity to capitalize on the move when it happens.
FIXED COUPON CONVERTIBLE (FCC)
Maturity: 8NOV24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 6SEP24
Coupon Rate: 30% p.a. if BTC/USD fixes above Coupon Level, 0% p.a. otherwise
Coupon Level: Above 55,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection Level: 46,000
Redemption: 100% in USD if BTC/USD fixes above Protection Level, 100% in BTC converted at the strike rate otherwise
To learn more about what QCP can do for you, visit our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=marketinsights280824&utm_content=learnmore
QCP Group
QCP - Asia's leading digital asset partner
We offer a range of tailored derivatives and spot trading as well as structured solutions to institutional, professional and accredited investors.
❤16👍4
QCP Asia Colour – 29 Aug 24
Nvidia’s impressive earnings report last night triggered a classic “sell the news” reaction in the crypto markets today. Consequently, Bitcoin has slipped back to $59,000, and Ethereum is trading sluggishly around $2,500.
Front-end vols spiked overnight on the move lower in spot but has since sold off following the Nvidia earnings report, dropping around 10 vols from its peak. Risk reversals until Oct are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH, indicating that the market remains cautious about the downside.
In the lead-up to next week’s non-farm payroll report, we expect market volatility to continue its downtrend as the market positions itself for potential rate cuts by the Fed. Tonight’s US GDP report is likely to be a non-event for crypto, especially if it reinforces the ongoing narrative of a slowing US economy.
Trade Idea
Will we see more downside as we enter the 4th quarter of the year? With the absence of any catalysts in the near term, we anticipate prices to continue chopping within the range as we move into September.
Principal Protected BTC Range Accrual
Maturity: 22NOV24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 6SEP24
Coupon Range: 55,000 to 64,000
Coupon Rate: 15% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Spot Ref: 59,600
To learn more about QCP, visit: https://zpr.io/efV6UTCfHETk
Nvidia’s impressive earnings report last night triggered a classic “sell the news” reaction in the crypto markets today. Consequently, Bitcoin has slipped back to $59,000, and Ethereum is trading sluggishly around $2,500.
Front-end vols spiked overnight on the move lower in spot but has since sold off following the Nvidia earnings report, dropping around 10 vols from its peak. Risk reversals until Oct are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH, indicating that the market remains cautious about the downside.
In the lead-up to next week’s non-farm payroll report, we expect market volatility to continue its downtrend as the market positions itself for potential rate cuts by the Fed. Tonight’s US GDP report is likely to be a non-event for crypto, especially if it reinforces the ongoing narrative of a slowing US economy.
Trade Idea
Will we see more downside as we enter the 4th quarter of the year? With the absence of any catalysts in the near term, we anticipate prices to continue chopping within the range as we move into September.
Principal Protected BTC Range Accrual
Maturity: 22NOV24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 6SEP24
Coupon Range: 55,000 to 64,000
Coupon Rate: 15% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Spot Ref: 59,600
To learn more about QCP, visit: https://zpr.io/efV6UTCfHETk
QCP Group
Homepage - QCP
Large volume trading in volatile markets requires personalised solutions, round-the-clock support and unparalleled execution. We offer a range of tailored
❤12👍2
QCP Weekend Brief – 31 Aug 24
This week, the crypto market saw Bitcoin rejecting $65k highs, reversing last week’s gains and sliding back into the 58k to 60k range.
BTC spot ETFs recorded four consecutive daily outflows, notably with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing its first outflows (-$13.5m) in nearly 4 months since May.
On the inflation front, US PCE numbers was softer than market expectations (2.5% YoY actual v 2.6% YoY expected), bolstering the case for a dovish Fed in Q4. Equities ended the month on a high, with the Dow posting a new record all time high.
What’s coming next?
A weaker than expected NFP print next week could potentially confirm a strong case for US rate cut in Q4 starting in Sep, with the probability now at 33.0% (25 bps) and 67% (50bps).
With the recent macro news proving to have little effect on the crypto market, we believe BTC is likely to remain range-bound within 58k-65k in the short term as the market awaits positive catalysts to break out of this range.
Trade Idea
BTC ACCUMULATOR
Continue accumulating more as the market trends sideways. Buy BTC spot at a 7.1% discount (55,000) every week if spot fixes below 68,000.
Maturity: 8NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-7.1%)
Upper Barrier: 68,000 (+14.9%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot Ref: 59,200
This week, the crypto market saw Bitcoin rejecting $65k highs, reversing last week’s gains and sliding back into the 58k to 60k range.
BTC spot ETFs recorded four consecutive daily outflows, notably with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing its first outflows (-$13.5m) in nearly 4 months since May.
On the inflation front, US PCE numbers was softer than market expectations (2.5% YoY actual v 2.6% YoY expected), bolstering the case for a dovish Fed in Q4. Equities ended the month on a high, with the Dow posting a new record all time high.
What’s coming next?
A weaker than expected NFP print next week could potentially confirm a strong case for US rate cut in Q4 starting in Sep, with the probability now at 33.0% (25 bps) and 67% (50bps).
With the recent macro news proving to have little effect on the crypto market, we believe BTC is likely to remain range-bound within 58k-65k in the short term as the market awaits positive catalysts to break out of this range.
Trade Idea
BTC ACCUMULATOR
Continue accumulating more as the market trends sideways. Buy BTC spot at a 7.1% discount (55,000) every week if spot fixes below 68,000.
Maturity: 8NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-7.1%)
Upper Barrier: 68,000 (+14.9%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot Ref: 59,200
👍11❤3
QCP Asia Colour – 2 Sep 24
- BTC ended August down 8.6%. We started the month with the 'BOJ crash' and BTC was never able to recover above 65k. ETH performance in August is significantly poorer, down 22.2% in August on the back of alleged selling by Jump Trading.
- What should we expect in September? Historically, September seasonality is bearish with 6 of the last 7 Septembers in the red and with an average return of- 4.5% (which would take us to ~55k if we see the same this month).
- That doesn't seem too drastic especially after a turbulent August. We expect BTC to find strong support around 54k which is the level it bounced from in July before touching 70k.
- This week, we have Unemployment Claims on Thursday (5 Sep) and NFP on Friday (6 Sep). However, we are not expecting any fireworks especially with macro data having a decreasing impact on crypto prices over the past few weeks.
- We expect the vol curve to steepen further as frontend vols drift lower in a sideways market. At the same time, more long Calls are being rolled further out till March for both BTC and ETH. In fact another 200x BTC-28MAR25-120k-C was bought today, increasing its OI to 2.1k. In spite of the lull, there is still strong evidence of structural bullishness in the medium-term.
Trade Idea:
With interest rates heading downwards on impending rate cuts and basis yield on the lower end of the range, you can still generate a strong and stable yield with a CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Take advantage of lower spot to earn up to 23%pa.
BTC CFCC (8-Nov)
Earn 23% pa weekly as long as spot price is above 53k.
Strike: 50k
Protection: 40k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 40k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k.
- BTC ended August down 8.6%. We started the month with the 'BOJ crash' and BTC was never able to recover above 65k. ETH performance in August is significantly poorer, down 22.2% in August on the back of alleged selling by Jump Trading.
- What should we expect in September? Historically, September seasonality is bearish with 6 of the last 7 Septembers in the red and with an average return of- 4.5% (which would take us to ~55k if we see the same this month).
- That doesn't seem too drastic especially after a turbulent August. We expect BTC to find strong support around 54k which is the level it bounced from in July before touching 70k.
- This week, we have Unemployment Claims on Thursday (5 Sep) and NFP on Friday (6 Sep). However, we are not expecting any fireworks especially with macro data having a decreasing impact on crypto prices over the past few weeks.
- We expect the vol curve to steepen further as frontend vols drift lower in a sideways market. At the same time, more long Calls are being rolled further out till March for both BTC and ETH. In fact another 200x BTC-28MAR25-120k-C was bought today, increasing its OI to 2.1k. In spite of the lull, there is still strong evidence of structural bullishness in the medium-term.
Trade Idea:
With interest rates heading downwards on impending rate cuts and basis yield on the lower end of the range, you can still generate a strong and stable yield with a CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Take advantage of lower spot to earn up to 23%pa.
BTC CFCC (8-Nov)
Earn 23% pa weekly as long as spot price is above 53k.
Strike: 50k
Protection: 40k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 40k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k.
❤19👍8
QCP Asia Colour – 3 Sep 24
- September is typically a bearish month not just for crypto but across all asset classes (with bonds lower in 8 out of the last 10 Septembers and Gold lower every year since 2017).
- October, however, has the strongest bullish seasonality, with BTC showing positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers.
- This seasonality play could explain the consistent call buying in the vol market (the desk observed another 150x 80k Dec calls lifted in Asia morning).
- If this pattern plays out again this year, it would be strategic to accumulate during the September dip and take profits in October or toward the year-end.
Trade Idea
September offers a compelling opportunity to accumulate BTC spot ahead of a potential rally in October and the upcoming U.S. election. Buy BTC spot at a 9.06% discount every week if it fixes below 63,000 with an Accumulator.
BTC Accumulator
Maturity: 8NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 53.800 (-9.06%)
Upper Barrier: 63,000 (+6.49%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot Ref: 59,160
- September is typically a bearish month not just for crypto but across all asset classes (with bonds lower in 8 out of the last 10 Septembers and Gold lower every year since 2017).
- October, however, has the strongest bullish seasonality, with BTC showing positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers.
- This seasonality play could explain the consistent call buying in the vol market (the desk observed another 150x 80k Dec calls lifted in Asia morning).
- If this pattern plays out again this year, it would be strategic to accumulate during the September dip and take profits in October or toward the year-end.
Trade Idea
September offers a compelling opportunity to accumulate BTC spot ahead of a potential rally in October and the upcoming U.S. election. Buy BTC spot at a 9.06% discount every week if it fixes below 63,000 with an Accumulator.
BTC Accumulator
Maturity: 8NOV24 (10 weeks)
Strike: 53.800 (-9.06%)
Upper Barrier: 63,000 (+6.49%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
Spot Ref: 59,160
❤15👍4🤯1👌1
Volatility Alert: VMI Detects Potential Shifts - 4 Sep 24
- QCP's Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) has been triggered this morning for both BTC and ETH, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility.
- This signal is directionally agnostic, meaning it does not indicate spot direction but suggests that larger price movements are likely in the near-term (chart below showing BTC implied volatility on historical VMI signals).
Trade Idea
Historically, switching from yield-generating to long convexity (buy option) strategies on the back of the signal has helped to optimize portfolio returns.
Given the direction-agnostic nature of the signal, we would suggest cheap directional structures to amplify returns on a big spot move.
Bullish Uptober
25-Oct ERKO call
Strike: 60,000
Knock-out: 75,000
Cost: 2100 USD per
Max payout: 7.14x
Bearish Hedge
27-Sep ERKO Put
Strike: 55,000
Knock-out: 45,000
Cost: 1770 USD per
Max payout: 5.65x
Spot ref: 56,400
Live VMI signals are available to QCP clients. To receive VMI signals, kindly subscribe via your designated trading channel. For onboarding, please contact sales@qcp.capital.
- QCP's Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) has been triggered this morning for both BTC and ETH, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility.
- This signal is directionally agnostic, meaning it does not indicate spot direction but suggests that larger price movements are likely in the near-term (chart below showing BTC implied volatility on historical VMI signals).
Trade Idea
Historically, switching from yield-generating to long convexity (buy option) strategies on the back of the signal has helped to optimize portfolio returns.
Given the direction-agnostic nature of the signal, we would suggest cheap directional structures to amplify returns on a big spot move.
Bullish Uptober
25-Oct ERKO call
Strike: 60,000
Knock-out: 75,000
Cost: 2100 USD per
Max payout: 7.14x
Bearish Hedge
27-Sep ERKO Put
Strike: 55,000
Knock-out: 45,000
Cost: 1770 USD per
Max payout: 5.65x
Spot ref: 56,400
Live VMI signals are available to QCP clients. To receive VMI signals, kindly subscribe via your designated trading channel. For onboarding, please contact sales@qcp.capital.
❤7👏3🤯2👍1
QCP Asia Colour – 5 Sep 24
- US JOLTS job openings printed their lowest level since January 2021, while layoffs rose to its highest since March 2023. The market reacted by pricing in a 50% chance of a 50bps rate cut in Sep and a total of 4.5 cuts for 2024.
- BTC rallied above 58.5k, and ETH close to 2,500 during US hours. However, the Asia session saw prices pull back to 57k for BTC and 2400 for ETH. Overnight BTC spot ETF outflow were the lowest in the last 6 sessions (-$37.5m). Could we see some price support from ETF inflows in US hours today?
- Front-end vols remain elevated for the week, with BTC vols rising 6% from the lows this week. We expect volatility to remain elevated given yesterday's VMI signal.
Trade Idea
Lock in yield in light of impending rate cuts.
Yield Bundle
Coupon: 25.5% pa ($3,493 per $100k deployment)
Basis + sell 10.8x of 50k/49k PS & 10.8x of 67/68k CS (expiry: 25-Oct)
Downside: If spot is below 49k or above 68k at expiry, max loss is $6,460.
Spot ref: 57,100
- US JOLTS job openings printed their lowest level since January 2021, while layoffs rose to its highest since March 2023. The market reacted by pricing in a 50% chance of a 50bps rate cut in Sep and a total of 4.5 cuts for 2024.
- BTC rallied above 58.5k, and ETH close to 2,500 during US hours. However, the Asia session saw prices pull back to 57k for BTC and 2400 for ETH. Overnight BTC spot ETF outflow were the lowest in the last 6 sessions (-$37.5m). Could we see some price support from ETF inflows in US hours today?
- Front-end vols remain elevated for the week, with BTC vols rising 6% from the lows this week. We expect volatility to remain elevated given yesterday's VMI signal.
Trade Idea
Lock in yield in light of impending rate cuts.
Yield Bundle
Coupon: 25.5% pa ($3,493 per $100k deployment)
Basis + sell 10.8x of 50k/49k PS & 10.8x of 67/68k CS (expiry: 25-Oct)
Downside: If spot is below 49k or above 68k at expiry, max loss is $6,460.
Spot ref: 57,100
👍9❤5
QCP Weekend Summary – 7 September 24
- US non-farm payrolls report for August came in lower-than-expected last night at 142K (est. 165K). Unemployment matched estimates at 4.2%, slightly down from the previous month’s 4.3%.
- The market’s initial response was positive sending risk assets on a rally. However, the bullish sentiment reversed sharply as the market started to price out 50 bps cut in Sep. Post-NFP the market was pricing in a 55% chance of a 50 bps cut. As of this morning, the market is pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bps cut and a 30% chance of a 50bps cut.
- Nvidia (NVDA) continued to sell off, weighing down on broader US equities indices and crypto prices. BTC traded to a low of $52,500 and is now finding support at $54,000 while ETH plummeted to $2,150.
- BTC spot ETFs also extended an 8-day outflow streak.
- Despite the overnight drop in crypto prices, the options market remained relatively calm. The desk even saw large put selling through the session. We are observing front-end vols drifting lower as spot consolidates into the weekend.
How should we navigate this?
In this period of heightened volatility where basis yield remains on the lower end of the range, a Fixed Coupon Convertible is an attractive product as it generates a strong and stable yield of up to 33% p.a.
Trade Idea
Conditional fixed Coupon Convertible (8-Nov 2024)
Earn weekly 33% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 50,000
Strike: 45,000
Protection: 40,000
At expiry, only if BTC is below 40k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 45k.
- US non-farm payrolls report for August came in lower-than-expected last night at 142K (est. 165K). Unemployment matched estimates at 4.2%, slightly down from the previous month’s 4.3%.
- The market’s initial response was positive sending risk assets on a rally. However, the bullish sentiment reversed sharply as the market started to price out 50 bps cut in Sep. Post-NFP the market was pricing in a 55% chance of a 50 bps cut. As of this morning, the market is pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bps cut and a 30% chance of a 50bps cut.
- Nvidia (NVDA) continued to sell off, weighing down on broader US equities indices and crypto prices. BTC traded to a low of $52,500 and is now finding support at $54,000 while ETH plummeted to $2,150.
- BTC spot ETFs also extended an 8-day outflow streak.
- Despite the overnight drop in crypto prices, the options market remained relatively calm. The desk even saw large put selling through the session. We are observing front-end vols drifting lower as spot consolidates into the weekend.
How should we navigate this?
In this period of heightened volatility where basis yield remains on the lower end of the range, a Fixed Coupon Convertible is an attractive product as it generates a strong and stable yield of up to 33% p.a.
Trade Idea
Conditional fixed Coupon Convertible (8-Nov 2024)
Earn weekly 33% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 50,000
Strike: 45,000
Protection: 40,000
At expiry, only if BTC is below 40k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 45k.
❤13🫡5👍3
QCP Asia Colour – 9 Sep 24
- Crypto has stabilized after last week's movement, but implied vols remain elevated. It seems the market is still anticipating potential volatility heading into this week's events, specifically the Trump v Harris debate (10 Sep, 9pm ET) and CPI (11 Sep, 830am ET).
- Given the velocity of last week's dip, the market is still very cautious about downside risk. Risk Reversals until October are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH.
- Even with all the near term noise and volatile price action, we remain structurally bullish. And it certainly looks like the market is also taking advantage of this leg lower to pile on more longer term bullish trades. This session we saw big buyers of 28MAR25 Calls (85k, 100k, 120k strikes).
Trade Idea
The bounce from 52.5k is definitely encouraging. So have we seen the bottom? Although we can't be certain, some institutions seem to think so as they take this opportunity to add to their bullish bets in Dec and Mar. With a ZERO cost ERKO Seagull, you will also be able to express your bullish view efficiently.
BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 42k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 239% pa or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 55,200)
- Crypto has stabilized after last week's movement, but implied vols remain elevated. It seems the market is still anticipating potential volatility heading into this week's events, specifically the Trump v Harris debate (10 Sep, 9pm ET) and CPI (11 Sep, 830am ET).
- Given the velocity of last week's dip, the market is still very cautious about downside risk. Risk Reversals until October are still skewed towards Puts in both BTC and ETH.
- Even with all the near term noise and volatile price action, we remain structurally bullish. And it certainly looks like the market is also taking advantage of this leg lower to pile on more longer term bullish trades. This session we saw big buyers of 28MAR25 Calls (85k, 100k, 120k strikes).
Trade Idea
The bounce from 52.5k is definitely encouraging. So have we seen the bottom? Although we can't be certain, some institutions seem to think so as they take this opportunity to add to their bullish bets in Dec and Mar. With a ZERO cost ERKO Seagull, you will also be able to express your bullish view efficiently.
BTC Dec ERKO Seagull
Buy 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell 42k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 239% pa or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 55,200)
🥰11❤8
QCP Asia Colour – 10 Sep 24
- Macro uncertainty dominates the crypto market ahead of the presidential debate, with the 30-day correlation to the MSCI World Equity Index reaching 0.6, near a 2-year high.
- The desk saw heavy buying in the 11 Sep options, with 400 contracts at the 57.5k strike. The options market is implying a movement of more than 3.3% from the current spot of 56.8k by tomorrow's expiry post debate.
Trump vs. Harris Debate Preview:
-The market will be watching closely for Kamala's policy cues in her debut debate, especially in contrast to Trump's clearer stance on lowering corporate taxes and raising tariffs, both of which are seen as inflationary.
- While BTC is generally seen as the "Trump trade" due to his vocal support for crypto, we believe the real surprise could come from Harris if she brings up crypto positively during her campaign.
Trade Idea
Boosted by BTC spot ETF flows turning positive after an 8-day losing streak, we reiterate our structurally bullish stance in Q4. We favor earning stable yield while gaining upside convexity exposure at current spot levels.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 6% p.a. coupon if fixes between 60k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 80k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 59.7% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 20SEP24
Coupon Rate: 6% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 60,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 80,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 59.7% p.a.
Spot Ref: 56,800
- Macro uncertainty dominates the crypto market ahead of the presidential debate, with the 30-day correlation to the MSCI World Equity Index reaching 0.6, near a 2-year high.
- The desk saw heavy buying in the 11 Sep options, with 400 contracts at the 57.5k strike. The options market is implying a movement of more than 3.3% from the current spot of 56.8k by tomorrow's expiry post debate.
Trump vs. Harris Debate Preview:
-The market will be watching closely for Kamala's policy cues in her debut debate, especially in contrast to Trump's clearer stance on lowering corporate taxes and raising tariffs, both of which are seen as inflationary.
- While BTC is generally seen as the "Trump trade" due to his vocal support for crypto, we believe the real surprise could come from Harris if she brings up crypto positively during her campaign.
Trade Idea
Boosted by BTC spot ETF flows turning positive after an 8-day losing streak, we reiterate our structurally bullish stance in Q4. We favor earning stable yield while gaining upside convexity exposure at current spot levels.
Weekly Range Accrual + Topside Convexity
- Receive weekly 6% p.a. coupon if fixes between 60k & 70k
- If spot breaks above range and fixes just below 80k at expiry, you get an additional payout up to 59.7% p.a.
Range Accrual Component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 20SEP24
Coupon Rate: 6% p.a. in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within Coupon Range, 0% pa otherwise
Coupon Range: 60,000 to 70,000 BTC/USD
ERKO component
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 70,000 BTC/USD
Barrier: 80,000 BTC/USD
Max Potential Payout: 59.7% p.a.
Spot Ref: 56,800
❤14👍4
QCP Asia Colour – 11 Sep 24
Neither candidate provided a clear message on economic policy, but statements about 'eating the dogs' didn't go unnoticed. The crypto market was also disappointed by the lack of comments related to crypto policy.
Coming out of the debate, it appears that Harris won in the court of public opinion. Trump seemed notably flustered by Harris' remarks. Online betting sites saw the odds shift in Harris' favour after the debate.
The absence of a clear frontrunner in this election, coupled with the murky policy stances from both parties, heightens the possibility of a risk-off move in risk assets as we approach Election Day.
With this macro event behind us, attention now turns to tonight's CPI release. The market is expecting CPI to print at 2.55% v 2.9% previously. We find the chances of an upside surprise more likely. However, we anticipate minimal market impact from CPI as the focus has shifted to unemployment data.
Trade Idea
We prefer structures that earn yield in bullish scenarios. While we are cautious of higher volatility and potential downside movements given the macro uncertainty, we believe these uncertainties will resolve themselves in Q4.
CFCC
Earn weekly 55% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 55,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection: 45,000
Maturity: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, only if BTC is below 45k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 50k.
Neither candidate provided a clear message on economic policy, but statements about 'eating the dogs' didn't go unnoticed. The crypto market was also disappointed by the lack of comments related to crypto policy.
Coming out of the debate, it appears that Harris won in the court of public opinion. Trump seemed notably flustered by Harris' remarks. Online betting sites saw the odds shift in Harris' favour after the debate.
The absence of a clear frontrunner in this election, coupled with the murky policy stances from both parties, heightens the possibility of a risk-off move in risk assets as we approach Election Day.
With this macro event behind us, attention now turns to tonight's CPI release. The market is expecting CPI to print at 2.55% v 2.9% previously. We find the chances of an upside surprise more likely. However, we anticipate minimal market impact from CPI as the focus has shifted to unemployment data.
Trade Idea
We prefer structures that earn yield in bullish scenarios. While we are cautious of higher volatility and potential downside movements given the macro uncertainty, we believe these uncertainties will resolve themselves in Q4.
CFCC
Earn weekly 55% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 55,000
Strike: 50,000
Protection: 45,000
Maturity: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, only if BTC is below 45k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 50k.
👍11❤5👌3
QCP Asia Colour – 12 Sep 24
Last night's US CPI data matched expectations, with core CPI rising slightly to 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% estimate. This increased the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut to 85%, the highest in a month.
In crypto, BTC rebounded from intra-day losses to reclaim $57,000, signaling strong demand an increasingly bullish outlook. Options activity reflects this, with growing demand for Calls with Oct-Dec expiries.
BTC volatility dropped 12 points this week, driven by the CPI release and the presidential debate. With no major macro events in the near term, we expect vols to drift lower ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Trade Idea
Given the salient bullish economic events on the horizon, the market is gaining momentum with the upcoming rate cut and US Presidential Elections.
Election Ticket
Get 180% payout of your principal deployment if BTC fixes between 70k-80k on 8-Nov. Receive 80% back otherwise.
Maturity: 8-Nov
Range: 70,000 to 80,000 BTCUSD
Payout: 180%
Max loss: 20%
Last night's US CPI data matched expectations, with core CPI rising slightly to 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% estimate. This increased the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut to 85%, the highest in a month.
In crypto, BTC rebounded from intra-day losses to reclaim $57,000, signaling strong demand an increasingly bullish outlook. Options activity reflects this, with growing demand for Calls with Oct-Dec expiries.
BTC volatility dropped 12 points this week, driven by the CPI release and the presidential debate. With no major macro events in the near term, we expect vols to drift lower ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Trade Idea
Given the salient bullish economic events on the horizon, the market is gaining momentum with the upcoming rate cut and US Presidential Elections.
Election Ticket
Get 180% payout of your principal deployment if BTC fixes between 70k-80k on 8-Nov. Receive 80% back otherwise.
Maturity: 8-Nov
Range: 70,000 to 80,000 BTCUSD
Payout: 180%
Max loss: 20%
❤11👍3
QCP Weekend Summary - 14 SEP 24
US Presidential Race
- The debate between Trump and Harris was the highlight of the week, despite no mention of crypto.
- Harris putting her decades of experience as an attorney to good use during the debate, winning the endorsement of the clout wielding Taylor Swift.
- As of now, Harris has pulled ahead according to Polymarket, with slightly over 50% chance of being elected as the first female POTUS.
US Inflation
- CPI data on Wednesday came in inline with expectations (2.5% actual vs 2.5% expected), increasing the odds of a 25bps rate cut to 85%.
- However, core PPI (YoY) on Thursday came in 0.1% lower than expected (2.4% actual vs 2.5% expected), leading the market to shift and price a 50/50 chance of 25bps and 50bps cut.
- Gold continued its rally on the back of PPI data, pushing fresh all-time-highs.
Flows
- BTC ETF saw positive inflows 4 out of 5 days this week, with Friday printing +263.2m, in contrast to last week's nett outflow.
- Outflows from GBTC are slowing down, with inflows of 6.7m recorded on Friday. Could this be the end of GBTC supply?
- MicroStrategy announced on Friday that is has purchased an additional 18.3k BTC, bringing its total holdings to 244.8k BTC.
- Last night's rally to 60k liquidated almost 50m of short positions.
- The options market saw a sudden revival of ETH interest. With over 20k contracts being bought targeting 3k levels by 27-Dec.
Trade idea
Despite some short term uncertainty and potential drawdowns, we still favour locking in yields ahead of the rates cut and positioning for bullish scenarios.
CFCC
Receive weekly 65.6% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 60k.
Maturity: 27-Dec
Strike: 55k
Protection level: 50k
Coupon trigger: 60K
Coupon rate: 65.6% p.a.
At expiry, if BTC is below 50k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55k.
US Presidential Race
- The debate between Trump and Harris was the highlight of the week, despite no mention of crypto.
- Harris putting her decades of experience as an attorney to good use during the debate, winning the endorsement of the clout wielding Taylor Swift.
- As of now, Harris has pulled ahead according to Polymarket, with slightly over 50% chance of being elected as the first female POTUS.
US Inflation
- CPI data on Wednesday came in inline with expectations (2.5% actual vs 2.5% expected), increasing the odds of a 25bps rate cut to 85%.
- However, core PPI (YoY) on Thursday came in 0.1% lower than expected (2.4% actual vs 2.5% expected), leading the market to shift and price a 50/50 chance of 25bps and 50bps cut.
- Gold continued its rally on the back of PPI data, pushing fresh all-time-highs.
Flows
- BTC ETF saw positive inflows 4 out of 5 days this week, with Friday printing +263.2m, in contrast to last week's nett outflow.
- Outflows from GBTC are slowing down, with inflows of 6.7m recorded on Friday. Could this be the end of GBTC supply?
- MicroStrategy announced on Friday that is has purchased an additional 18.3k BTC, bringing its total holdings to 244.8k BTC.
- Last night's rally to 60k liquidated almost 50m of short positions.
- The options market saw a sudden revival of ETH interest. With over 20k contracts being bought targeting 3k levels by 27-Dec.
Trade idea
Despite some short term uncertainty and potential drawdowns, we still favour locking in yields ahead of the rates cut and positioning for bullish scenarios.
CFCC
Receive weekly 65.6% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 60k.
Maturity: 27-Dec
Strike: 55k
Protection level: 50k
Coupon trigger: 60K
Coupon rate: 65.6% p.a.
At expiry, if BTC is below 50k, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55k.
❤14👍3🥰1
QCP Asia Colour – 16 Sep 24
- After struggling to break above 61k over the weekend, crypto dipped lower following a second assassination attempt on Trump. This downward move was worsened by the liquidation of nearly $70 million in long positions before the Asia open, where liquidity was thin.
- Despite a bearish start, it's worth noting that BTC rallied 13.8% from 58k to 66k during the same week as Trump's first assassination attempt on July 13.
- Could we see a similar recovery rally this week? It’s certainly an eventful week for crypto, with Token2049 ongoing and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18 Sep), where uncertainty remains around whether there will be a 25bps or 50bps cut.
- As we approach the first Fed rate cut of this cycle, market tensions are rising, amplifying the impact of any unexpected macro data. The probability of a 50bps cut has jumped to 59% from 30% last Monday. This is mirrored in increasing volatility, with Friday implied vols up 8 for BTC and 20 for ETH.
Trade Idea
With spot lower, skew is currently in favour of Puts. Take advantage of this Put skew to optimize a bullish trade for Q4 at zero cost with an ERKO Seagull.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell: 50k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 413% p.a. or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 58,300)
- After struggling to break above 61k over the weekend, crypto dipped lower following a second assassination attempt on Trump. This downward move was worsened by the liquidation of nearly $70 million in long positions before the Asia open, where liquidity was thin.
- Despite a bearish start, it's worth noting that BTC rallied 13.8% from 58k to 66k during the same week as Trump's first assassination attempt on July 13.
- Could we see a similar recovery rally this week? It’s certainly an eventful week for crypto, with Token2049 ongoing and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18 Sep), where uncertainty remains around whether there will be a 25bps or 50bps cut.
- As we approach the first Fed rate cut of this cycle, market tensions are rising, amplifying the impact of any unexpected macro data. The probability of a 50bps cut has jumped to 59% from 30% last Monday. This is mirrored in increasing volatility, with Friday implied vols up 8 for BTC and 20 for ETH.
Trade Idea
With spot lower, skew is currently in favour of Puts. Take advantage of this Put skew to optimize a bullish trade for Q4 at zero cost with an ERKO Seagull.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 100k knock-out
Sell: 50k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 413% p.a. or $30k per BTC if spot price is just below 100k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 58,300)
❤14👍4🥰2
QCP Asia Colour – 18 Sep 24
The Fed meets today and its significance cannot be overstated. Their decision will shape the path of financial markets in the medium to long term.
Market participants are pricing in a 33% chance of 25bps and 66% chance of 50bps cut, based on Fed Fund Futures pricing.
However, economists polled by Bloomberg see a 25bps cut as more likely, with 104 out of 114 predicting this outcome. Only 9 out of 114 economist expect a 50bps cut. This divergence extends all the way out to 2026.
The direction and magnitude of market movements during and post FOMC remain unclear due to multiple layers of uncertainty:
1. Interest rate decision (25bps or 50bps cut)
2. Dot plot projections
3. Powell's press conference post-FOMC
That said, we are confident that volatility will be high in the days following the meeting, as traders readjust their positions over the next few weeks. The regime change could also signal the start of strong macro trends.
Trade Idea
The start of a rate cutting cycle aimed at normalizing interest rates supports hard assets as stores of value. While drawdowns and high volatility are expected, don't let that detract you from the path to higher BTC prices. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot ERKI
Maturity: 27JUN25
Return: >290% p.a. if BTC expires above 100k
Strike: 80,000
Knock-in: 100,000
ref: 59,600
The Fed meets today and its significance cannot be overstated. Their decision will shape the path of financial markets in the medium to long term.
Market participants are pricing in a 33% chance of 25bps and 66% chance of 50bps cut, based on Fed Fund Futures pricing.
However, economists polled by Bloomberg see a 25bps cut as more likely, with 104 out of 114 predicting this outcome. Only 9 out of 114 economist expect a 50bps cut. This divergence extends all the way out to 2026.
The direction and magnitude of market movements during and post FOMC remain unclear due to multiple layers of uncertainty:
1. Interest rate decision (25bps or 50bps cut)
2. Dot plot projections
3. Powell's press conference post-FOMC
That said, we are confident that volatility will be high in the days following the meeting, as traders readjust their positions over the next few weeks. The regime change could also signal the start of strong macro trends.
Trade Idea
The start of a rate cutting cycle aimed at normalizing interest rates supports hard assets as stores of value. While drawdowns and high volatility are expected, don't let that detract you from the path to higher BTC prices. We favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in prices.
Moonshot ERKI
Maturity: 27JUN25
Return: >290% p.a. if BTC expires above 100k
Strike: 80,000
Knock-in: 100,000
ref: 59,600
❤14🎅4👍3
QCP Asia Colour - 19 Sep 24
The Fed announced a 50bps rate cut last night, with plans for two more cuts this year and four in 2025. Amidst Powell's ambiguity regarding the size and pace of subsequent cuts, all eyes will be on upcoming labour data for indications.
The US 2Y/10Y treasury spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022 but has recently steepened to +8bps, reflecting market optimism and a shift towards risk-on assets. The S&P 500 attempted to reach new highs but closed in the red post-FOMC.
On the options side, implied volatility collapsed following the FOMC meeting, with BTC down 19 vols and ETH down 18 vols. Post-FOMC, BTC rallied from 59k to 62k, while ETH trades around 2.4k.
Trade Idea
Given the drop in IV, we see an opportunity to buy topside exposure ahead of the elections as we expect volatility to surge as election day approaches, just after the next FOMC meeting.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 95k knock-out
Sell: 55k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 331% p.a. or $25k per BTC if spot price is just below 95k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 62,100)
The Fed announced a 50bps rate cut last night, with plans for two more cuts this year and four in 2025. Amidst Powell's ambiguity regarding the size and pace of subsequent cuts, all eyes will be on upcoming labour data for indications.
The US 2Y/10Y treasury spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022 but has recently steepened to +8bps, reflecting market optimism and a shift towards risk-on assets. The S&P 500 attempted to reach new highs but closed in the red post-FOMC.
On the options side, implied volatility collapsed following the FOMC meeting, with BTC down 19 vols and ETH down 18 vols. Post-FOMC, BTC rallied from 59k to 62k, while ETH trades around 2.4k.
Trade Idea
Given the drop in IV, we see an opportunity to buy topside exposure ahead of the elections as we expect volatility to surge as election day approaches, just after the next FOMC meeting.
BTC Election ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 8NOV24
Buy: 70k call with 95k knock-out
Sell: 55k put
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: 331% p.a. or $25k per BTC if spot price is just below 95k level at expiry.
(Spot ref: 62,100)
❤14👍3🤯2
QCP Weekend Summary – 21 September 24
• Crypto rallied for a 3rd consecutive day yesterday with BTC making a retest of $64,000 and ETH reclaiming $2,500.
• This rally was supported by strong inflows into both BTC and ETH spot ETFs. BTC ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of $250.30 million over the past two days, while ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $8.10 million during the same period.
• With no major macroeconomic events expected this week until Friday's PCE price report, crypto prices may take a breather here as rate cuts euphoria fades. As of this morning, BTC has fallen below $63,000.
• On the options front, front-end BTC volatility dropped by 6 points from yesterday’s peak and continues to decline as the market adjusts to the ongoing path toward policy normalization.
What’s next?
In the current low-volatility and bullish environment, BTC win-range will be attractive for those looking to capitalize on upside convexity as we head into Uptober.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 5x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 5x
Maturity: 29NOV24
Range: 80k to 100k
(spot ref: 62,800)
• Crypto rallied for a 3rd consecutive day yesterday with BTC making a retest of $64,000 and ETH reclaiming $2,500.
• This rally was supported by strong inflows into both BTC and ETH spot ETFs. BTC ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of $250.30 million over the past two days, while ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $8.10 million during the same period.
• With no major macroeconomic events expected this week until Friday's PCE price report, crypto prices may take a breather here as rate cuts euphoria fades. As of this morning, BTC has fallen below $63,000.
• On the options front, front-end BTC volatility dropped by 6 points from yesterday’s peak and continues to decline as the market adjusts to the ongoing path toward policy normalization.
What’s next?
In the current low-volatility and bullish environment, BTC win-range will be attractive for those looking to capitalize on upside convexity as we head into Uptober.
Trade Idea
BTC Win-Range (Top Side)
Get paid 5x if BTC fixes anywhere within the range.
Payout: 5x
Maturity: 29NOV24
Range: 80k to 100k
(spot ref: 62,800)
❤8👍5
QCP Asia Colour – 23 Sep 24
- A Harris win this election may not be as bearish as the market thinks. In another bid to win over the crypto vote, Kamala Harris vowed at a fundraiser over the weekend to help the crypto sector grow. This is on top of Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates working alongside her campaign's crypto policies.
- Harris' apparent pro-crypto flip together with macro tailwinds, gave crypto a boost to start the week which triggered almost 60m of short liquidations.
- Last week we mentioned that BTC could rally up to 13.8% from its lows of 57.5k. Since last Monday, BTC has recovered almost 12% and it looks poised to rally further.
- The usual frontend Put skew that we've been seeing over the past month is starting to normalize, as more buyers of topside and sellers of downside options emerged over the weekend.
- Even funding rates on major exchanges are improving, and basis yields are starting to look relatively more attractive, especially with the interest rate cuts.
Trade Idea:
If you would like to ride the bullish momentum into Q4, a Principal Protected Sharkfin offers a potential return of over 96% p.a with no downside.
BTC SHARKFIN
Max Payout: 96% p.a.
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80k
Barrier: 100k
(spot ref: 63,500)
- A Harris win this election may not be as bearish as the market thinks. In another bid to win over the crypto vote, Kamala Harris vowed at a fundraiser over the weekend to help the crypto sector grow. This is on top of Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates working alongside her campaign's crypto policies.
- Harris' apparent pro-crypto flip together with macro tailwinds, gave crypto a boost to start the week which triggered almost 60m of short liquidations.
- Last week we mentioned that BTC could rally up to 13.8% from its lows of 57.5k. Since last Monday, BTC has recovered almost 12% and it looks poised to rally further.
- The usual frontend Put skew that we've been seeing over the past month is starting to normalize, as more buyers of topside and sellers of downside options emerged over the weekend.
- Even funding rates on major exchanges are improving, and basis yields are starting to look relatively more attractive, especially with the interest rate cuts.
Trade Idea:
If you would like to ride the bullish momentum into Q4, a Principal Protected Sharkfin offers a potential return of over 96% p.a with no downside.
BTC SHARKFIN
Max Payout: 96% p.a.
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 80k
Barrier: 100k
(spot ref: 63,500)
❤14👍5🔥5