🇹🇷💥🛥What conclusions will Turkey draw from the tanker attacks in the Black Sea?
Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on tankers near its coast force Ankara to balance its mediator ambitions with the hard realities of NATO alliances and its own national security

✍️Author: Alexandr Svaranc
Doctor of Political Science, Professor, expert on Middle Eastern countries

➡️The recent wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on tankers carrying Russian cargo in the Black Sea, including near Turkish waters, presents a direct challenge to Ankara. While Turkey's Foreign Ministry has expressed concern, framing the strikes as a threat to civilian shipping and the environment, the incidents reveal deeper tensions. They highlight Ukraine's—and its backers'—unwillingness to yield to U.S.-led peace initiatives and their attempt to expand the conflict zone, potentially drawing Turkey into the fray.

➡️Ankara's dilemma is complex. It positions itself as a crucial mediator, with a history of facilitating the grain deal and prisoner exchanges, and seeks a role in a future peacekeeping mission. However, its balanced stance is undermined by its continued military-technical support to Kyiv and its membership in NATO, where allies like the UK are implicated in enabling these very maritime attacks to sabotage Russian exports and disrupt global energy markets.

➡️The attacks threaten Turkey’s core interests: the safety of vital shipping lanes, the stability of its mediation platform, and even its energy security, recalling past Ukrainian sabotage attempts against the Turkish Stream pipeline. While Ankara has issued diplomatic condemnations, the withdrawal of a major Turkish shipping company from Russian routes signals that economic fear may trump diplomatic principle.

🟦Turkey now faces a critical test. It must decide whether its concern translates into decisive action to secure the Black Sea, or if it will remain a constrained mediator, its strategic autonomy limited by the conflicting pressures of its alliances and its national interests.

#Conflictescalation #EuropeandUkraine #geoeconomics #Russia #RussiasSpecialMilitaryOperation #Turkey

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