Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

Introduction: https://xn--r1a.website/Middle_East_Spectator/4

Owner and contact for ads: @Elias_MES

X: @spectator_mena
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🇮🇷🇺🇸| Nabavian: My core objection is that too many major benefits for Iran are pushed to the vague “final agreement,” whose date is unclear and extendable.

The $300 billion mechanism, ending US sanctions, the nuclear issue, and US troop withdrawal all depend on that final agreement.

But until then [in the meantime], Iran itself is proposing to freeze 3 things:

• Our current nuclear status, meaning no enrichment
• The damaged nuclear facilities staying as they are instead of being rebuilt
• US sanctions remaining in place.

Even worse, U.S. forces would also remain in the region until the final agreement.

So my question is: Is this really America’s proposal, or ours? Because if the final agreement can keep getting extended, Iran gives up leverage during the waiting period while America keeps sanctions and troops in place.

@FotrosResistancee
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🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇧🇭 The U.S. A-327 radar in Bahrain is gone

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Fotros Resistance
The radar is capable of tracking ~470 km away
Was 😉
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🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇧🇭 NEW: Satellite imagery also shows the destruction of two jet fuel depots at Sheikh Isa Airbase, Bahrain, by Iranian ballistic missiles

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Fotros Resistance
not even Oman should be involved.
— Personally, I disagree with Mr. Nabavian on this point.

Oman, as a country whose territorial waters are part of the Strait of Hormuz, has a right to sit at the table regarding its future, together with Iran.

Oman has also been very respectful in its diplomatic relations with Iran and engaged sincerely in a mediator role (even if it failed).

Iran is not a hegemonic power like the United States which wants everything for itself. Even the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said that the Strait of Hormuz must bring ecomomic blessings for Iran and its ‘honest neighbors’.

For me personally it makes sense that Oman would be involved at least in the discussions, even if it won’t have a managerial role.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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— And while I agree with Seyyed Nabavian on most of his criticisms on the points of this MoU, I think it somewhat makes sense that Iranian control is not explicitly mentioned.

Diplomacy is a delicate thing. America would never accept a document where it explicitly agrees to hand over control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran.

What matters is the practical reality. Iran already manages the Strait of Hormuz, and has shown that. It doesn’t need to be put on paper (at least not at this point), the reality on the ground speaks for itself. The Foreign Ministry has been very clear there will be service fees and Iranian management.

Just like there are points of ambiguity in the agreement that may favor America, for example the vague timeline for troops withdrawal and such, there are also points of ambiguity that favor Iran, such as the Strait of Hormuz. This depends on the strength and weakness of each party, and when it comes to Hormuz, this is the U.S. weakest point, it can’t do anything about Iran imposing its own management. It’s a simple fact.

There are also mines that need to be cleared. As long as that’s the case, ships will use Iranian shipping lanes and the de-facto control of Hormuz will be in Iran’s hands for the near future.

It’s politically indefensible for the U.S. to actually acknowledge Iranian sovereignty over the Strait. The best case scenario is an MoU where this point is ‘silently omitted’, which in practice allows Iran to control the Strait without publicly embarassing America.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump, on Truth Social, says the MoU with Iran will be signed tomorrow

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Middle East Spectator — MES
❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump, on Truth Social, says the MoU with Iran will be signed tomorrow @Middle_East_Spectator
❗️Trump says the uranium can be downblended inside Iran

In other words, the stockpile won’t be transferred abroad; Iran will continue to have control of its enriched uranium and will only dilute it in accordance with gradual full economic sanctions relief.

No sanctions relief, no dilution. Very important, Iran keeps its main leverage.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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🇮🇷 NEW: Some Iranians have gathered outside the foreign ministry chanting ‘Death to Araqchi, the dishonorable compromiser’

@Middle_East_Spectator
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— I just want to say one thing.

While we may be satisfied with some aspects and dissatisfied with other aspects of the MoU, there is one reality.

When the U.S. started this war, their objective was a complete regime change in Iran and an unconditional surrender like we saw in Venezuela.

This totally failed and they suffered a humiliating defeat, and that alone is a divine victory. Iran is the only country in history that managed to stand against a combined all-out American-Zionist assault. We should never forget that.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 A senior Israeli official to Channel 12:

‘This is a shitty agreement.’

@Middle_East_Spectator
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🇺🇸/🇮🇷 U.S. Official to Bloomberg:

‘This agreement returns everything back to the status-quo and achieves none of the war’s stated objectives’

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Bottom line, nobody is happy.

That’s just diplomacy I guess.

But I think the U.S. & Israel will be more unhappy than Iran. Time will tell.
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Forwarded from ResistanceTrench mirror
Can we talk about the Epstein files again or is Iran still two weeks away from having nuclear weapons?

🚩 ResistanceTrench | Boost
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Anyways tune into @WorldCupSpectator soon.
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Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
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🇮🇷| Protests have also erupted in front of the MFA building in Tehran.

Iranian protesters say: “Araghchi, have shame, leave America alone [as in: stop fangirling]”

@FotrosResistancee
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Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
Fotros Resistance
🇮🇷| Protests have also erupted in front of the MFA building in Tehran. Iranian protesters say: “Araghchi, have shame, leave America alone [as in: stop fangirling]” @FotrosResistancee
🇮🇷| Powerful message on a placard from Iranian potesters in front of the MFA building in Mashad:

“Reopen the parliament. And if they bomb the building, as Araghchi said, we’ll find a replacement.”

@FotrosResistancee
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🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Hezbollah ambushed an advancing column of Israeli tanks, blowing up at least two

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 CNN, citing five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence:

Iran has started dispersing its highly enriched uranium stockpile, collapsing some tunnel entrances, and placing mines and booby-traps inside the well-protected underground facilities.

The moves are aimed at significantly complicating the process of accessing and retrieving the material.

This would make it much more time consuming for Iran to downblend the enriched material, should a deal with the U.S. be reached, buying time for Iran to covertly resume enrichment.

It would also make any special military operation to retrieve the uranium extremely dangerous and risky.

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🇮🇷 NEW: In a first, the national Iranian messaging networks (Baleh, Eitaa, Soroush, Rubika) are being filtered for anti-negotiations messages and posts critical of Araqchi / Qalibaf

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