Part 2

The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.

As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.

However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.

We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.

Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.

They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.

This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.

An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here

On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.

The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?

Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.

I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.

Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.

There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin

Finally, you should stay silent...shhhh Shhh, but about what❓

You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you

How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.

Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.

Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here

As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin

🇱🇧 This particular video has been shared by many in a way to ridicule Hezbullah if it accepts a ceasefire.

Sometimes, many who shared it were ones that accused Hezbullah of not doing enough for months after 7-Oct-23 and many who attacked this great martyr for his speech in Nov-23 that they found "lacking"

Then he told everyone, there is no single button to press to defeat Israel. It is a series of continuous battles and efforts over the time.

Some ask: How do they accept to end the war now, and didn't the pager attack single the start of the war. This speech is after the pager attack

In brief since I already explained the ceasefire details, he is clearly talking about "Jabhat Lubnan" or Lebanon's [support] front. As for the pager attack, yes it was the start of the war for Israel but Hezbullah didnt see it as a start of the war yet. They treated it as yet another blow, they will try to absorb and not escalate to avoid a greater war in Lebanon.

Nothing was more important for Hezbullah during those 11 months but to absorb every single blow, and retaliate in a limited scope to avoid a grand war in Lebanon.

Else how do you justify Hezbullah's reluctance to fire rockets and then taking time to plan a limited retaliation for the pager attack?

Hezbullah's leadership was still walking in the open and they held  public funerals. Sayyed Saffieddine was himself in one which a radio expldoded at and other leadership were visiting houses and doing lectures.

The situation was different and the assessment was different. 1 year of a daily war in south Lebanon and then two months of a grand war in Lebanon, and some would still accuse Hezbullah of abandoning them.

Now let me put it differently.

Gaza has been in negotiations for one year to stop the war in Gaza, and Israel has been clear that they won't stop the attacks on Lebanon even if the war in Gaza ends.

Does this mean Gaza has to reject the ceasefire and continue with the war because Israel won't stop its attacks in Lebanon? Of course not.

In the second ceasefire in Gaza and during the Eid holidays, Israel stopped attacks in Gaza but continued to attacks in Lebanon.

The goal...is one. Ensuring the resistance front against Israel continues and survives. This is a battle in a 70+ years long war. It's is one of many obstacles and a step in this thorny road.

Some people want to continue watching Lebanon being destroyed and Hezbullah attacked to feel good that they are helping Gaza, when we already established how this front reached its peak ability to influence.

Judge wisely, and look for the long term and not the short terms of events. This ceasefire might not even mature and might collapse in days or weeks.

The goal of the support front was to end the war in Gaza, not bring down both Gaza and Lebanon. Israel accepting a ceasefire now is a step closer to ending the war in both Lebanon and Gaza.

Because trust me, the next big thing is in the West Bank, who was largely largely silent about the events in Gaza. Then, slogans "Yalla ya Gaza" won't help, because it is long long overdue and overdone. Likewise in regards of the 1948 Palestinians that stayed as obedient goys. #admin

📰 Some Lebanese are so sad Israeli didn't reach Tyre and Nabatieh and buss the Shia and Hezbullah into concentration camps, they are working on social media to claim that Lebanon is now under US-UK military occupation and that Hezbullah has surrendered and soon they will be forced to dismantle.

Some even likened the situation to Chapter VII and our banks are under US supervision now. (As if our banks aren't already and that it was the US's favorite goons who contributed to the sector's collapse)

Do you actually know that Hezbullah's MPs can't have bank account in their own country from years ago? That's why they are pissed at how secure and good Qard al-Hassan is.

Look, the matter is quite simple, this war didn't end nor did it start in the best optimal way for Lebanon, but it was concluded in a way that was enough for Hezbullah to retain a lot and survive in a way it is largely able to roll back many of the issues that faced it. That in comparison to Gaza or many other examples around us.

However despite this victory, not one like 2006 or one thay pained the IDF, the coming days and weeks are going to be a challenge in which Lebanon might be subjected to some violations by the Israeli army.

Imagine a raging rabid dog, suddenly forced to be sedated, snd is starting to wake up edging for more violence? It's prey is there but there is a thin barrier between them.

So events that will happen and how Lebanon acts towards them will either contribute in building a deterrence or eroding it. We either reach a level of post-2006 or reach a situation likened to Syria.

So how we act, react, respond, will all play an important role. Just give things time because what happened is great and grave, snd water needs to flow back to it's place.

Back in 2006 Israeli violations happened, they mounted a large raid in Baalbek a few days after, they killed Imad Moghnieh in 2008, recruited two senior Hezbullah commanders, killed Hassan Lakkis in 2013...etc

The war never stops...it takes different shapes.

We are Lebanese from Beirut, South, Beqaa hope for a longer pause like post-2006 but we have to understand there will challenges.

People have to cooperate with each other and help fortifying the homefront and have faith in Hezbullah's decisions.

Pray for their success. Between Netanyahy and Trump, and the new war in Syria's Allepo and a possible renewed US economic war on Iran...we will see no rest.

And as Imam Hussen said to those who want to escape: "This is the night, take it as an excuse to leave from the battle".

Have faith...and patience and time will show how events unfolds.

As we were happy visiting our homes yesterday after the IDF was forced into a ceasefire, some people started planning from that moment on how to prepare for the future from politics, to economy, to taking care of the people, to war.

Building deterrence now is like water shaping stone. It can be done, it's natural, it needs time. #admin

For me, believe it for it, the survival of Iran is more important than any retaliation against Israel, because Iran is the root that if withered, will weaken all. Iran can help but Iran has its limitations and ability and economic burdens.

Well see inshallah.

For you, people, understand that we are at one of the most critical phases in our lives, a situation as stressing as 2005, or 2006, or 2011-2013 and you will play a role by being patient and understanding and willing to sacrifice some luxuries to help safeguard this nation. Or else, everything will be lost or weakened for long.

Our enemies are many, some strong, some weak, some intact but that's life when you choice to have a conscious and obey God's laws and abide by his statements #admin

There are any things that you can categorize the Syrian war as, but one is surely a civil and one is surely an international conflict. Its civil because it rose from the core of the Syrian population who once truthfully called for reform and change, taking the arab spring as a catalyst against the legitimate Syrian government. It is also an international conflict, because there were mothers from dozens of countries mourning their sons from this war. From Damascus to Bou Kamal, to Beirut, to Tehran, to Moscow, but also to Riyadh and Cairo and almost every single Arab, Asian, European, and African capital.

For me personally, i cannot forget the faces of those whose remains are forever lost in the vast fields of Syria, or my teacher who rose to heavens murdered at hands of ISIS in the far east, the or that night talk with that red head sheikh who jokingly told me he'll never step foot in the Syrian desert anymore after the horrors he witnessed from having to escape an ISIS advance near T2 at night there.

I say those words because they are and will always be the true representation of events, and the catalyst was always there from within the country. There is no doubt Pres Bachar al-Assad has greatly contributed to the wellbeing of the Syrian people and served his country, but there was a level of injustice perpetrated throughout the ranks of the government and the system as whole the create some type of hate that transcended the ability to reform, and the gap only got worse with time. This is my honest opinion of this conflict from day one, and as someone whose religion was shaped out of fighting Kufr and injustice, i cannot but note this.

Back in 2011, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was fast to voice support to the popular uprising in the arab world and called the peaceful protests that took place in Egypt, Bahrain, Tounis and others are just. There was injustice and he supported the rise against injustice. However not long after, and this wave of just protests spread to dear Syria, the ally of Hezbullah who has long stood next to the resistance in Lebanon and was a key partner in helping it fight the Israeli occupation and both liberate Lebanon and emerge victorious from the 2006 war.

However as fast as these events started, the faster the situation escalated from what was a peaceful civil movement mimicking its arab neighbors to a violent suppression of protests and terrorist attacks on both the civilians and the state. It was remarkable how cynical the events unfolded, and how truly how many false flags happened that increased the bloodshed of innocent from both sides of the political spectrum setting the stage for a 13 year international conflict fought in Syria. There were also many crimes committed by loyalist soldiers, who were never punished by the Syrian government, including execution, torture, and burying some alive. Unforgiveable.

The actions of the terrorists were clear, from shooting to bombing, to assassinating core figures from the system including Khaleyat Al-Azmah in 2012 which was created to manage the internal strife. There did not seek peaceful action.

Early on, Pres Bacahr made a lot of noticeable reforms and released hundreds from prisons in an effort to present to the emerging protests that there is path for reform and the states is willing to negotiate solutions, however there was no one interested in a solution in Syria. The opposition was promised the presidential palace, but here is where it gets murky. What opposition exactly, out of the hundreds of factions that started to be spwan everywhere.

In those very critical months, before Hezbullah got involved in active conflict, they sent various delegations to meet opposition figures and try to soften the situation and find a compromise for both sides to agree on. They tried to speak sense into the opposition, avoid a war, and truly defeat the obstacles. However no one of them was interested in such a solution or compromise. Qatar, KSA, Jordan, and the US promised them much more than what a compromise could ever achieve for them. #admin

✍ Some fast Questions and answers, hoping they help the pro-resistance fellow for more insight on the present or the future.

(You are usually my target audience and why I do these explanations)

There is no order of importance for these questions:

❓Will Israel's new front in Syria help the situation in Lebanon by diverting some attention

At face value yes, this would be helpful to ensure that those 60 days will pass and the IDF to largely disengage. They have a new front tbry need to gather intel about and prepare for the worst case scenario. Although, Jewlani is unlikely to fight the Israelis nor is he expected at any present time to showcase himself as their enemy.

However the IDF understands that the fall of Syria has cut of Hezbullah from Iran, and what they damaged cannot be easily replaced. So what now?

Although it is unlikely they plan to reignite the war for the sake of further damage in Lebanon, they remains a slim possiblity. The calm is in their favor.

Hezbullah reads the situation well, and will not give Israel any pretext to such action. Yet, it is crucial for the Lebanese government to exert pressure on the US to keep Israel in line.

❓Will the fall of Assad play in favor of the Lebanese parties such as LF, PSP, and so on?

At face value you'd think yes, but in reality no. Ever since Bachar disengaged in 2005, there hasn't been a real influence on the situation in Lebanon nor Syrian agenda

The ones that Damascus used to control as pawns, are the ones that ended up backstabbing it and becoming the opposition. Hezbullah was always independent, Amal wasn't good friends with Syria, and FPM are in decline for failing to catch up.

What his fall represents, is rallying catalyst for their supporters and a drive towards their grander goals in Lebanon because they see themselves as victors. There is a lot of hypocrisy here about how they are acting, but this is a historic study.

So with no affect on Lebanon in terms of political power projection, these parties might try to maximize their aims in light of Hezbullah's internal weakening because of the war. However it is unlikely they will be successful in forcing the party out of the upcoming government or elect Samir Gaegae for example.

Sheikh Naim is a veteran in Lebanese politics. He used to manage the file for Sayyed Hassan.

❓ Where is Bachar? Why did he do this?

It's too early to judge why Bachar just decided to abandon Syria after 13 years and call it a day.

The man refused all Western and Arab bribes to stay in power back in 2012 and fought against all threats, to suddenly pack and leave?

He didn't address the Syrians, he didn't announce the reasons, he abandoned everyone who ever saw him a leader and didn't give them a chance to understand the situation. He didn't give the orders to the army to fight until allies can arrive to help. He surrendered Syria without a fight.

There is no deal he can accept that was worth it, even safety wise, he was safe. One thing is, I'm glad he decided to abandon it without a fight than fight and then leave.

Bachar's deals with the Arab and West didn't save him, even cozing up to Saudi Arabia and UAE. On 10/2023 he forced Ansarallah to abandon their embassy in Syria and hand it to Saudi Arabia. There are a lot of question.

Bachar built a castle of sand, and allowed Syria's enemies to crumble it with a bucket of water. Regardless, Bachar was unable to rule any longer, it was long overdue for him to hand the leadership for other national Syrian figures and a build a country that didn't need one man to decide its fate.

(To be continued) #admin

If the IDF ever stays in Lebanon after those 60 days and the war starts again after the Lebanese government fails to force the US-France to make Israel adhere, I genuinely hope Hezullah will focus the rocket and missile attacks exclusively on Israeli forces in south Lebanon.

For various reasons that I won't explain this, but this will yield the best results.

1- No alerts for soldiers about any incoming threat

2- Weaker air defense coverage (they cover usually part of south Lebanon) which could increase hits

3- Increase the Israeli death toll in Lebanon forcing a heavy burden on the Jews

4- Ensure the Jews don't have any talking about about the war, and seen exclusively as an aggressor who stayed as an occupation force after breaking the ceasefire.

So far, we have seen no credible signs that they are willing to fully disengage, and in the worst case scenario we can consider these 60 days as well-earned rest for Hezbullah to refresh and move arms.

It'll also be seen exclusively as a defender, so this will increase local support.

Despite that, I do still think the war won't continue and it already ended. These Jewish violations are also expected to reduce after those 60 days but not become null until a few months more..or more. #admin

There are many places that I can start in explaining these points, but I wanted to start it somewhere else. A few months ago I posted how there is a reason why God chose to take the life of Sayed Hassan on that day, and not in previous years or wars for a lesson we are yet to learn or a wisdom, we are yet to understand. Personally, I do not think this reason was for the sake of Sayyed for him to rest after all those years, nor for the fact that the time has changed and God wants him to leave this earthly world on the climax in face of the mishaps that came after, but because he wants to test us and test the community as a whole.

This has always been God's way of testing, whole communities and not only single individuals. Else, each community once had a prophet or a good man, but this didn't lead to the salvation of that nation.

And the Quran was always clear how God when he damned a nation, he punished it and then had another replace it. This is a serious act, and being replaced is a serious tragedy.

So how the Shia community acts with these events, how true they stay to the Islamic rulings and how true they stay to the righteous path and continue to be willing to sacrifice for the sake of justice and the good causes, stay away from corruption and build a good community, will be the difference between salvation and damnation.

These didn't matter when the situation was better, when stronger, safer, etc.

These things matter when the situation is the opposite of all that. When there is lack of safety, lack of wealth, lack of health, and weakness.

So I won't talk about how the community stayed steadfast, and patient and so on. The good is there and you know it. Let me tackle the bad, because this is what I care about to showcase so we can get over and resolve, etc.

Unfortunately only 17% or so are Lebanese who follow this page, but I'm satisfied enough with even helping 1 person see things better and him/her play a role in educating another and so on.

First of all, I already explained this war and the results, so please read this for details. Some are threads with very important explanations, all truthful and all biased to the truth.

1- Thread about the ceasefire and the reasoning of it

2- What were the Israeli goals in this war

3- Did Hezbullah lose deterrence because this war happened?

4- How can Hezbullah ensure this battle was not lost in favor of Israel

5- What were the conditions under which Hezbullah had to fight with

6- Is ending the war abandoning Gaza and losing deterrence - is Hezbullah making a mistake?

7- What makes this ceasefire agreement worrisome for Lebanese sovereignty

8- What is this war? Why did it happen and why are we here

9- The war in Syria

The below will be a format of questions and answers, to help make this easier

✍ Why does Hezbullah's SG Sheikh Naim insist the war was won, even though Hezbullah was weakened and the current situation is not in Hezbullah's advantage nor does it have leverage like before

After reading the grand goals that Israel has set for this war against Hezbullah and the actions it has taken to implement them, there was only one possible reasonable outcome and that is the complete collapse of Hezbullah as a fighting force.

Let's be clear. This is what was expected if any force in this world had faced what Hezbullah did between August and September, and any force in the world would have collapsed and surrendered.

I have already explained the conditions under which Hezbullah fought but let me repeat.

They fought the strongest military in the Middle East, one of the most advanced in the world, after all their leadership has been killed and all their military commanders killed, under very harsh conditions between mass sabotage and very accurate intelligence-based airstrikes. This is all before the newly advanced Israeli war machine started to fight inside Lebanon and utilitize the lessons learned in 2006 and close-air-support.

Simply, it is beyond remarkable that Hezbullah in 2 months, was able to sustain Israel within 5 km.

(Continued Below) #admin

So when Hezbullah say they won this war, they won their survival, they won seeing a day after the war, they won by foiling the Israeli objective #1, #2, etc...

Sheikh Naim was very transparent and in all his speeches after the ceasefire he said "We won because the Israeli objectives failed". He didn't lie and claim we won by crushing the IDF, we won by destroying X and Y. He was very honest.

Wars are won by objectives, and this war which Hezbullah did everything to avoid (explained this before), is one forced eventually on Hezbullah. For that, Hezbullah didn't have an objective to be judged on, rather only Israel.

It was very costly, it was very painful, and thousands of Hezbullah members sacrificed their lives in it.

They aren't numbers, and everyone of these men had a love story, had a dream, had a house and family, had friends, had something in this life.

They sacrificed dearly to ensure the disadvantage in which this war started in... didn't cause a bad/worse outcome

And so the war ended, the bloodshed stopped, the mass destruction stopped and Hezbullah has retained a lot of its pre-war assets and has been able to take care of the community through some compensations and so on. It retained both support and arms

However as much as they have retained, they have lost and the war ended, although with an Israeli need for a ceasefire, but with an advantage to Israel because they retained the ability to fight with the same intensity like before while Hezbullah was gravelly affected in terms of firepower and manpower and the only way to retain the same composure is with a lot of sacrifices which they are willing to do but are unnecessary if the war can end and a ceasefire can last until better conditions exist

So it's in Hezbullah's advantage to look weaker now to delude the Jews and give them their high and ecstacy, and avoid a new conflict under these uncomfortable conditions. There is a lot of learning to do, a lot of obstacles to navigate and alot of gaps to fill

To conclude this, two points:
1- Not all victories are the same. Some are clear and some are murky. Some are bright as the sun and some are dim as a firefly in the night sky. Some are cheap and some are costly.

So yes, this victory isn't like that of 2006 or 2000. It is a bitter conclusion of a conflict with the best possible outcomes under the worst conditions.

2- Hezbullah was very understanding of these, and didn't act arrogant and carry a victory festival. This is a good indicator that they aren't trying to sell delusions.

For what our opponents and enemies in Lebanon claim, we do not care

They were never accepting of our bright victories, they will not understand our very dim and unclear ones.

Unclear why? Because the whole middle east is shifting into a new one, and surviving this tide is something important

For those who aren't part of the assets or players shaping it, and are only capitalizing the results, they might always be intact but they will always be weak within their core

Before I talk about the new middle east, let me briefly talk about the Axis of Resistance and the weakness it now faces

✍The Resistance axis, between a paper tiger and a real force to be reckoned with. What's the reality?

To understand this you shouldn't view the resistance from the perspective of the West nor the perspective of the Media, but rather the reality of who they are

Why do I say this? Because a lot of what Hezbullah was claimed to be, is what Israel and the US claimed it was, and not what it expressed about itself

For example, in one of the speeches of Sayed Hassan Nasrallah he talked about the Israeli claim that Hezbullah has 150-300k rocket, and he laughed by saying: set 8ena Wala set fo2or

A Lebanese phrase meaning "better to be called rich, than being called poor". It ended here. What I'm implying, is that they exaggerated the enemy, to exaggerate the claimed fall that they want to persuade you with. (Continued) #admin

Talking in very brief, the Axis of the resistance was a group of countries and non-state actors that agreed to set any possible differences aside and joint efforts to strengthen each other for the sake of preserving themselves under the flag of being those who are today willing to fight the Israeli occupation and build a force that can detter threats and make a difference.

There was no treaty, or a union. There were was no overall commander or one path for all. There was mutual understanding of a will to cooperate and produce results.

This is about Iran, Yemen, and Syria as states, Hezbullah, Hamas, PIJ, and the Iraqi resistance as non-state actors.

Anything other was a small player and has minimalist to no impact. People used to show of 2 dozen different symbols of groups, but those were nothing but names with less then 2 dozen people.

Each had their own domestic issues, their own plans, their own oversight. Neither Iran had a say in what Syria does, nor had Hezbullah a say in what Hamas does. Hamas was the most rogue, Hezbullah was the most senior, Ansrallah was the most shining example, and Syria was the most independent of all. Syria had its own identity, so did Iran, so did Hamas, etc.

Despite all that, there was sincere cooperation between all, based on the common path that what affects one affects all and there is a moral obligation to help another. Everyone of them wanted the best for the other.

Setting Syria as a state aside, those who form the Axis weren't born out of strength or might.

Hezbullah was born small and weak and gradually become what it was on 6-Oct, Hamas was born small and weak, etc etc.

They took decades facing superpowers to reach the glorious days of liberation, and force the enemy to submit to their demand. Yemen's Ansrallah were always persecuted and only after 2015 did they rise to power and the war was against a large coalition which only ended a few years ago. Iran, has been under immense and devasting sanctions. And so on..

So the Axis was born, as the saying says from under the ash to burn the occupation and those who led the coalition of oppression. And only bit by bit did they expand and grow, to the power that they were and what the enemy described it.

But as they grew, vulnerabilities grew and the type of enemies changed and the conflicts between 2011-2018 set a toll on all. Their growth was correlated with the threat, and wasn't independent of it. This should be clear, and the timeline indicates so.

And all of them, fought an enemy that was much greater in terms of manpower and military advantages. Iran was fighting in some terms the most powerful empire in the history of the world, US. Hezbullah was fighting Israel, with its mighty army and so on. Ansarllah fought the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its local subjects and a coalition of 20+ countries.

They all won battles and war through patience, faith in good, and sacrifice and forced the enemy into defeated by making it lose the will to fight and making it concede to their demands. The will to fight and the futility to continue the war, is through what they always won.

It is a resistance, where the weaker rise against the bigger 'evil' foe.

When Hezbullah liberated south Lebanon in 2000 or won in 2006, they won by forcing the Israeli enemy to give in and making it lose its will to fight. Will is what makes a difference, no matter how weak or strong you are. Those wars ended and Israel still existed and its army were not severely damaged.

Yemen won the war through the same conditions, forcing Saudi Arabia to lose the will to fight and raising the risk of strategic losses (Aramco, etc). The war ended and Saudi Arabia is now intact, and its power is growing.

Understand what I mean here? I'm not making those victories cheap, on the contrary. They are grand glorious victories because the "weaker" triumphed over the "greater".

I'm not relying on this reasoning because we today are facing mishaps, but because this is how it was and is. The fight against the West or East is hard. (Continued) #admin

For this to be clear, you have to understand things in pure military terms. But this doesn't mean I'm tackling this from a materialistic terms, because it was the faith, patience and pure hearted and honest work that brought the past and inshallah the future victories. It was what made the eye defeat the needle.

So don't listen to defeats, don't accept them and make them outcasts. Don't listen to those telling you that we are a minority and we should let the sunni majority either live up to their role or let them stay idle. We work based on what's right, and God has on various occasions talked about how a small group defeated another by being true to God and his rules.

What I'm tackling here is the naked truth, and through which strength shouldn't be created to nullifying the materialistic gap and advance the resistance to produce more victories aided by the faith and honesty.

In terms of military might, modern warfare has grew to become very lethal and although there were no breakthroughs in the past 2 decades, technology has filled many gaps that used to give the resistance a rare advantage under a set of conditions.

These technological advances weren't FPVs or drones alone, I'll be back to that. They were a collection of things in various sectors, and I'll tackle them for the case of Hezbullah's recent war.

I didn't have the chance to talk to anyone from them nor do I have an insight on their experiences in this war, let's say so...but some of the new obstacles were. This will not include intelligence collection or spies:

1- Better Israeli radars that gave fairly accurate location of launch sites, which allowed the Israeli airforce to engage Hezbullah faster and more accurately.

I watched a video from 2006, of a Hezbullah rocket launcher firing from the woods. First a jet attacked it, it missed. A second time. It missed. On the third time, a drone attacked it and it was finally successful.

I also heard about a launcher that survived the whole war, firing almost daily from the same place. And another, that was attacked and killed the crew. I remember the Martyr's hand.

But today, in this war, this accuracy has been costly, and the Israeli army was able to engage launcher relatively fast and much more accurately. This neutralized re-usability and has threatened the crews. Although I note that drones weren't as successful in foiling the launching beforehand and in the majority of cases attacked the launchers after they are done. This s due to the lack of drone coverage and great concealment by Hezbullah.

2- The Iron dome, it was an effective tool that could only be defeated in suppression barrages that Hezbullah was unable to produce in this war and was only able to fire as much daily as in 2006 when there was none. Won't explain why now, probably did at some point.

3- Better Israeli close air support that was very poor in 2006, that was able to effectively and within 7-15 minutes attack what the ground forces needed.

This played a very instrumental role and made a difference in this war. And this was not only enabled by better training, but by the adoption of small commerical drones that allowed the soldiers to track Hezbullah fighters in gunfire and clashes and direct airstrikes from safety.

So not only was the Israeli plans much better than in 2006, in terms of avoiding mistakes and threats (helicopters, behind enemy line landings, exposing tanks to threats, rushing and not clearing areas), they closed the gaps and ensured safety over anything.

Some would call it being cowards, but that's BS. It really doesn't matter, the goal is to win and ensure lives are not lost. So not only in this war would they attack an area with jets and drones, every house would targeted by a rocket and a team will send small drones to inspect the house beforehand. On many occasions, suicide drones.

And other drones would track fighters, trail them, and call air support to murder them and end the fight then and there safely. (Continued) #admin

These are barely a few factors, won't mention the rest and won't mention the gaps in Hezbullah's performance.

These factors affected the intended results of Hezbullah's rockets and placed a heavy toll on Hezbullah's ground forces. Not only where this battle affected by these factors, but by the factors that we mentioned in one of the hyperlinked posts. From softening the border villages in a 1 year long support front that was never expected to last this long, to others.

These conditions in light of Israeli dominance, produced this shy victory where Hezbullah was unable to secure a position of strength and was forced into compromise in terms of ending the war to reduce the losses without establishing deterrence which will be risky in case the Israeli army doesn't abide by the conditions of the ceasefire and not only retreat but abstain from attacking Lebanon.

This weakened Hezbullah, who as further compromise by the fall of the state in Syria after Bachar al-Assad was sidelined.

I talked about Syria in a long thread, hyperlinked but I would note. Bachar was a good man, but failed to build a state was much weaker than portrayed and criminally negligent to uplift the country by fighting the rampant corrupt that decayed the foundation of the state and exposed it to all sins.

See, I don't think he just gave up and ran and I'm confident he was coup-ed. His generals stayed in Syria and are reconciling, his Prime Minister sat with al-Jolani the next day and some of the leaders already got Amnesty from both the 4th Division and NDF. Imagine and conclude. Else, nothing explains the collapse and his lack of media presence. It's not shame, it's beyond that.

Assad was holding a bag of sand, and someone took this bag away from him. The sand is something he cannot hold anymore. Regardless, the collapse of Syria has brought a new state whose current leader is warlord criminal but one who has good management skills and will be able to do some progress, however he is unlikely to play the role that Egypt's Morsi did and will likely siege Hezbullah in Lebanon from Iran. We'll know eventually. So now, after this war, at the worst possible time, Hezbullah lost access through the ground, noting that the airport never served as a path for weapons.

Hezbullah can produce a lot, but understand that production is complicated and needs raw material and machinery. They can get access to that, but some components need major military factories that cannot be created in years in Lebanon. This will be a great challenge.

Myself, I see it a blessing because Syria was compromised and this will help build self sufficiency. I do believe smuggling will continue, more discrete thus much safer. Idc let this "siege"' comfort Israel now so it ends the war in Lebanon and gives us some years of much needed peace

So now, this Axis lost Syria, the spine that kept the Axis attached. The axis lost Gaza, because the war has literally wiped the strip and has weakened Hamas into what I'd describe as a "manageable threat" for months now. The axis lost Hezbullah's leading initiative because it needs time to recover and rebuild

Now only Yemen and Iran are relatively in shape. Thus, one by one, the enemy weakened the axis. I'll explain on a later day why the axis wasn't and couldn't fight with one sword, aka fight simultaneously

The Israeli threats for Yemen are clear, and we should expect more Israeli attacks and assassinations. May they be safe and may the Jews be dammed and their efforts foiled

As for Iran, I'm glad they didn't do True Promise 3 because they were wise not to. It was a trap and they didn't fall into

Israel wanted them to retaliate, so they can get the pretext and so-called legitimacy from the corrupt west to launch another on Iran, one that this time was going to be much more wide scale and devasting. The attack was meant to seriously cause damage to Iran and set costs that aren't easily compensated for. Patience, for a better time because Iran understands its important to stay well, because they are the frame of the tent. (Continued) #admin

This is why I said Iran is next, because if Iran is well, everyone can regenerate but if Iran falls in the western hands like pre-1979 everyone will fall and those remaining non-state actors will lose their ability to impact.

Let's be clear, all non-state across and insurgencies nowadays are at a disadvantage against states, and unless they have the backing of one, the (enemy) state will always triumph or at least continue to successfully suppress. It was the Lebanese faith and courage that led to the liberation, but it was Iran's training and weapons that gave these men the tools to turn this faith into action. Etc. you get it.

Israel is now high over the victory it sees in Gaza and Lebanon, ecstatic over the collapse in Syria and hopes to have a conflict with Iran that can end all wars. It's like how everyone thought WW2 is the war to end all wars. With Trump, Netanyahu has the enabling and backing, and they will both pressure Iran economically, socially, and military wise.

It's a big challenge. I find it remarkable too that despite these challenges, God chose to take the life of the supposed successor of both Imam Khamenie and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. As if he chose to make this challenge on the highest difficultly.

Finally, this is the New Middle East in the forming. Failed in 2006, attempted in 2011, and made a breakthrough in 2024.

Sheikh Naim Qassem acknowledged this new reality when he said: Hezbullah foiled the news middle east from emerging from the gates of Lebanon. As in, the New Middle east wasn't/ won't be shaped starting by the fall of Lebanon but it has emerged and we are now in the storm. A middle east were the Axis of those anti-Israel are at weakness and the West and their allies are at their height again.

It's a storm where you have to survive until better conditions emerge, and during that all comprise without affecting your ideals and goals and during which build yourself by closing the gaps both socially and military wise. There is a lot of innovation needed, a lot of lessons to dirive, and a lot of precautions.

I pray to God to lead our leadership and guide them to the correct decisions and shield them from threats and lighten their minds to what's needed. The leadership from top to bottom.

Being far, or outside or not part, let's you see things differently. I don't know if what you think should be done is something they know and do and you don't know about, or they don't see because the experience and overview is different. Regardless, full faith in Hezbullah, yesterday..in the present, and in the future. (end) #admin

In very brief, the current U.S. administration is the biggest and worse threat facing the Palestinian cause in its history

Not only because the U.S. has power, but because its leverage is enough to keep Israel fighting.

There is enough Jews to through into war, and with enough weapons and money, Israel can commit war crimes and mass exodus on the Palestinians. They have the means and they have the only legitimacy they ask for, the American.

Only two things can stop this project and fail it. Two and only two:

1- The Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank staying in their lands no matter how bad the sacrifices are.

2- Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia refusing to accept the emigration (forced exodus) of Palestinians to their lands.

If either of these aren't available, the U.S.'s Jewish plan will succeed.

Critical times ahead of us, with the resistance axis at its weakest and most vulnerable and the Israeli-axis at its height.

Hamas knows well that what they did was correct. Unless they ensure enough aid and tents are coming into Gaza, the means of the survival of the people won't be available. Without the ability to survive the people can no longer stay in their land.

And Hamas knows, Israelis want to get the hostages then resume the war and commit a new massacre and exodus.

Its sad that they haven't been satisfied yet with how much Muslim and Arab blood they have spilled through wrongdoing.

Its sad that some don't see how evil the U.S administration is in all its faces and the dehumanization it showcase.

Its sad some people still talk of Peace. #admin

In very very  brief also, I would like to discuss something.

Some people, especially opponents (more like enemies) have memorized a few technical and military phrases and started to judge non-state actors (as in Hezbullah), presiding over a fake throne of knowledge and better understanding than the latter...

...and had they even been that knowledge they wouldn't be on X writing theories, they would have been the heads of militaries or to say at least working as some sort of leads in these domains.

The way they are trying to tell us that "oh Israel is an all seeing God, and that how pathetic they (Hezbullah) are for not knowing Israel can see and hear and intercept X and Y"

The thing is, after humbling yourself and your knowledge, Israel is not an all seeing God, and the lastest mishaps that faced Hezbullah are not fully attributed to the advances in technology as a sole contributing factor.

I say this, because the technology in regards to ELINT anr SIGNIT is not new, rather decades old and the applications were already in use long ago. The only contributing factor yo the new shift of intelligence gathering isn't the new smart AI, but rather the abundance of information that is available now thanks to the spread of electronics, phones, smart gadgets and so on.

The more data available, the more the processing services are able to collect information, and based on this information, the IDF can act because they have the reach and means

This is were OPSEC plays a role, and you try to deny the IDF data, but not all data. That's impossible and not only unheard of, it is not humanly possible.

To explain this point, Hezbullah will not be able to hide the face of every member. Nor will they hide the voice frequency of every member, nor hide their known local town houses, nor their social workers, nor nor nor etc

The guy's tweet on X focused on attacking Hezbullah for putting a public number for journalists to contact to coordinate their credentials on 23-Feb during the grand funeral. He started to use fancy words about the phone now being exposed, and everyone who call is.

Not only is this an exaggeration and fear mongering, Hezbullah's actions are not wrong. A public phone number for this sole role, which is carried out by a public media figure to coordinate with public media figures is normal and expected

Hezbullah cannot send pigeons to send letters to journalists, nor can they hide such. Hezbullah isn't a group of 20 people whom all should stay secret. The same details that the IDF can gain from this, is the same that Hezullah can gain from in Israel because those are public data for the IDF, who is one of the best armies in terms of opsec and secrecy.

The only difference? The IDF has the means to work on this language and the IDF is criminal enough to target meida figures (war crime)

Another misconception, is that during the funeral the IDF will use drones to scan all the people's phones and know who was there and trace them through the local cell towers, etc etc. Again, that's fear mongering.

How Hezbullah can do opsec, how Hezbullah can deny the IDF data, is another topic.. however we should understand that there is no feasible way to make the IDF in the blind

But there are ways and there needs to be effort to deny the IDF data that makes difference, that impacts, that devastates. There needs to be aggressive rules to enforce and there needs to be aggressive search for spies.

At any given point, as there is someone sinning God somewhere on earth, there is a new piece of data (useful or useless) reaching the IDF

For that, feel well when you hear news about a spy being captured and be nervous when months (weeks) when spies aren't.

The actions of Iran and Hezbullah in the 1980's blinded the CIA, but they got stabbed from the back by the Mossad eventually.

And to tell you something, what happened to Hezbullah in 2024 was an accumulation of things from 2005 to 2023. The data knowledge wasn't born in one day and one night.

I just pray, Hezbullah so fixing this asap. #admin

#admin long thread. Worth reading

There was a very important point mentioned yesterday in the speech of Sheikh Naim Qassem that highlighted clearly what we have seen in the past two months, that Hezbullah has stopped at the commands of its leadership any armed action that is categorized as offensive and has shifted to a new temporarily form that is much needed in this phase of history (short term) that will be capable of dealing with a tide that it cannot control due to the results of the war in terms of how it affected them and the change in the Middle East that took place overnight and placed Hezbollah as a loner which no wall to lay its back on. He said "at this time, it is the responsibility of the state"

Move forward and your loss might be irreversible, move back, and you will fall into a ditch as deep as time has existed. This dilemma has been hinted in the first speeches of Qassem, where he said that resistance has many forms, and that it is the leadership that defines what form is suitable. These words are not empty, but highlight a necessity to adapt because of the lack of popular support facing wars when the majority has either decided to surrender, act as if not concerned, or decided to reconcile with the US and Israel.

The matter here is not that Hezbollah has abandoned armed resistance, not at all. It is simply, that under current circumstances in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar's Syria and the ever growing anger and criminal actions by the majority with Lebanese, your hands are tied and in your hand is not the golden sword you had once. You hold a sword of steel in front of furnace and this furnace is operated by your enemy. Gold can melt, but you get my point.

I do believe, had the general Sunni Muslim atmosphere in the Arab world been better towards Palestine and not limited to submission and TikTok videos, the heavy burden Hezbollah is feeling in Lebanon could have been eased because they would have found nations that are willing to voice support to them in order to remedy the injuries and then help them in the post-war recovery in terms of aid for the people, rebuilding, etc. However unfortunately, Sunnis have always been this weak despite being in great masses that if each carried a bucket of water they could have drowned Israel. They are useless masses and the slaves of their kings and leaders, no matter how corrupt. I'm not sectarian and my family is mixed with Sunnis, however I do not expect from someone who say "R.A killed R.A and both are in heaven" to be a person that can stand-up at the right time for the right thing.

The issue today, that the 2024 war is not like the 2006, except in one point only. Before i mention that, do not believe anyone that have told you that they supported Hezbollah in 2006 yet they did not in 2023-2024. Those who supported them never flipped sides, unless when they were corrupted by ego, money, or hate.

For this war, that was inevitable but unfrankly did not go as expected, I have done many threads that I'm satisfied with in terms of knowledge to people and have tackled the causes of the war, the results, the ceasefire, and the conditions that the war was fought under. You can find them under #admin. They are really helpful.

I sometimes think, how do I know that I am not wrong in what i believe in and did not fall into the same delusion that others did. Its not easy to answer but i think asking this question is a good indicator and that my conscious is clear about good and evil, and I'm able to know when bad is done regardless if its from the people I support or no.

The purpose of this is post is to tackle two topics mainly: What are the challenges facing Hezbollah today and in the future, and how do I assume that Hezbollah will act today and in the future. This won't be a professionally written article because I dont have the time, but it will be satisfactory. My purpose of writing is because of my need to put my thoughts in words to deeper my understanding in what i believe in, and in the hope that at least one person will benefit from them in his life.

Today's speech by His Eminence Sheikh Naim confirmed many points from this thread about the future of the resistance and what to expect.

Inshallah tomorrow or the day after, I'll write a thread to answer the following questions:

- Can Hezbullah grow back to its height.

- What will hinder the growth if any? Local conditions or the changes in the middle east

Similar to what I have discussed here, below is by the head of Al-Akhbat np about the future:

"Until now, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon has adopted a policy of "refraining from direct action" in response to the continued occupation and the expansion of aggression. Its leaders say on every occasion that the state must translate what it has declared about its responsibility for Lebanon's sovereignty.

The repetition of the words by the leaders of the resistance about the state's duty to ensure a complete withdrawal, the liberation of prisoners, and the cessation of attacks is nothing but an argument against those in power in Lebanon, even though the leadership of the resistance knows in advance that those in charge in Lebanon have no answer today other than that Lebanon has no power or strength to do more than appeal to countries to intervene."

To read the full article 👇
al-akhbar.com/lebanon/824892‎

🧵 Thread about the new IDF doctrine and the Lebanese diplomacy

At one point there was a serious discussion if the path to a secure and safeguard Lebanon was through diplomacy or strength which is enabled through a resistance. However with time, similar to how the deterrence of the resistance eroded through the mishaps of the latest battle, the worth of diplomatic solutions eroded but faster without any fruits.

The difference is that the path to diplomacy was a just a shiny slogan spoken through the mouths of many who either never achieved anything for the overall best of Lebanon or used diplomacy as a veil to hide their ill intentions that intended to drive Lebanon towards full surrender and not only remove it from the few remaining Arab states with an active political and military front against Israel.

The goal was to shift its whole identity to one that strips it from its history and culture and put it under the shroud of a client state with no real security and no real worth in this world. You get peace by submission and erasing any threat to the West.
The dilemma here is and will always be that the side that chose to not to be part of the resistance does not get burdened at all with loss. They are neither subjected by the enemy to murder, nor are they subjected to material loss and pain. This makes the cost of choosing to be on the other side of the front that assumes the moral high ground in the world affairs, easy and without any costs.

On the contrary, the resistance is not only facing the burdens of justifying its existence and then the burdens of building up strength despite the challenges, it is burdened by the immense costs of loss and material damages that affects it and affect its supporting base. This base that needs a lot of effort to keep rallied around the cause.

To explain this, compare the costs paid by Hezbullah in 2006 to secure 17 years of unpreceded peace and deterrence before the setback of 2024, verses the costs paid by its political opponents in Lebanon. All the achievements done by Hezbullah since 2000 were ridiculed, yet when the winds shifted in favor of its opponents without any cost or effort from them, and despite years of making wrong assumptions and decisions, they were hailed.

What I personally find annoying is the hypocrisy that these opponents showcase, and their disregard of any decency in politics. What I find particularly wrong and is within the scope of this, is how they refused to adhere to the legitimacy given to Hezbullah in the past decade through the ministerial statement and once it was dropped, it became the holy words of God and now Hezbullah is an outlaw.

However the disregard to any decency has been showcased particularly not by the general populace of Lebanese who are against Hezbullah's arms, but by the Lebanese Forces party whose officials today crossed an unpreceded low announcing that they are ready to mandate Israel to defeat Hezbullah in the south and the Syrians in the north. They took a step further and said its high time for the Lebanese army itself to fight Hezbullah and that they accept genocide against Shia if done by the Syrians. This is what their head of communication Charles Jabour said.

The issue of Hezbullah's arms is indeed a topic that can be discussed. While it is a norm for us, and we not only accept it but encourage it, in the wider definition of states it is indeed irregular to have an armed faction whose power at one point rivals that of states.

The only difference between this irregularity and any other, that Hezbullah did not leverage this power to take over the state and submit others like how everyone else in history did, and focused only on Israel. And had Hezbullah not face mishaps in the latest war, and had Israel not get a green light from the whole world to act as it pleases unrestrained by any laws of humanity, the discussion of the weapons would not have sparked such polarity as it is doing today.

#admin