Part 2

The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.

As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.

However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.

We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.

Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.

They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.

This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.

An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here

On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.

The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?

Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.

I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.

Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.

There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin

Finally, you should stay silent...shhhh Shhh, but about what❓

You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you

How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.

Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.

Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here

As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin

With all the risks of the ceasefire fire and the refreshment time for the IDF in winter that could have been an advantage for the defender Hezbullah, below is the insight on how Israelis are talking and acting about this ceasefire.

These will give you a good understanding of the situation.

All the below is quoted from Israeli media:

- Netanyahu in a marathon of phone calls to public figures and opinion leaders in order to convince of the necessity of signing the agreement with Hezbullah

- Yair Golan at his faction's meeting:
"Netanyahu will be a prisoner in orange who will spend his days in prison reflecting on the damage he inflicted on us"

- Head of the Metula Council, David Azoulai Legia Peleg - calls on the residents not to return and find a new home in the state of Tel Aviv

- Senior Israeli officials: after the agreement - there will be no official call for residents to return to their homes (so the war goal was not achieved and if the war starts again they will be worried about having to evacuate them again)

- Classes in all educational institutions in Acre and Haifa will not take place tomorrow. No educational activity will take place in Ma'alot Tarshikha tomorrow either. (Hezbullah is still able to exert fear in Israel)

- Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman in an interview with Gideon Oko: There is an important operational achievement that was not achieved in the war, and it is critical [we failed]

- Kiryat Shmona Mayor: The evacuation plan carried out by the Israeli government since the outbreak of the war on Lebanon is a failure.

Kiryat Shmona Mayor: Members of the government who support reaching a settlement with Lebanon should move and live in Kiryat Shmona.

- Channel 12: There will be no buffer zone in southern Lebanon and the residents of the south will return to all Lebanese villages, which worries the residents of the north

- Shlomi Council Chairman: We will not extend a helping hand to the government and we will not return to our homes.

- Israeli calls for a demonstration tomorrow on Begin Street in Tel Aviv, to reject the agreement intended to be signed with Lebanon, describing it as “killing the settlers of the north, and crossing a red line by the Netanyahu government, which chose to ignore the heavy price paid by hundreds of thousands of evacuated settlers and soldiers.”

If a ceasefire goes through, it is important to not over rejoice or celebrate, because as good as it is to end this war, we have not forget that we have martyrs in the fields we have to retrieve and bury, we have fighters who are still fighting for months at the very edge of the border, we have grieving families that we have to comfort, we have injured we have to take care of and we have people and displacement individuals we should support.

And we have a leader who we didn't make a funeral for yet and cry and grief adequately for.

For that, we have to humble the actions based on the reality.

My brain melted. No more writing today.

Back to posts and copy pasting with some proofreading haha

⭕️ The footage released by Hezbullah targeting a Israeli robot-controlled M113 vehicle is between Tayr Harfa and Shamaa.

📍It was geolocated by Happygibbon on X at 33.150491201794246, 35.20391907218044

Remember Dier Mimas town that rejected Hezbullah and allowed the Israeli army to enter the town?

Footage was leaked of Israeli soldiers inside the church of Dier Mimas, desecrating it, dancing, cursing Jesus and toying with the bible and crosses.

🇱🇧 Border town of Yarin, South Lebanon |

Israeli soldiers turned Yarin Secondary School into a military base during their invasion into the town. They parked their vehicles and played with the children's desks and books.

Yarine is a Lebanese sunni town, with only a few Christian and Shia families.

📸 Aftermath of their attack on the local Sunni mosque in Yarine town, which they demolished.

Highlighting sect to show that what they destroyed wasn't affiliated with Hezbullah and that they attacked Christians and Sunni towns even when they weren't part of the war.

Unlike Rmeich, other Christian and Sunni towns were all attacked by the Jews and their places of worship and houses all targeted.

In all of these non-Shia towns, Hezbullah didn't fight the IDF.

❗️ Rocket alerts in the western Galilee

❗️Hezbullah announced rare FPV drone attacks today, announcing they targeted:

- Israeli soldiers in Al-Ajl Plateau, north of the Kfar Yoval settlement

- Israeli vehicles and artillery howitzer in Yarine town in Lebanon

- Israeli soldiers' sleeping quarters in Kabri settlement

All 3 events took place today at 3 pm.

🇮🇱l🇱🇧 Hebrew media: Medics are responding to reports of rocket impacts in the northern city of Nahariya.

Sirens had in the city and other towns in the Western Galilee amid a barrage launched by Hezbullah.

❗️Hezbullah announced the 4th FPV attack today, targeting soldiers in Dier Mimas town

❗️A fifth FPV was used today to target Israeli vehicles in Khiyam town.

Someone found where those FPVs were stashed and said: Select all, deploy...

🇮🇱l🇱🇧 Israeli media: "Nahariyya, Netanyahu has sold you to Hezbullah"

🎥| Israelis were asked if they support a ceasefire?

Israelis who voted for Netanyahu’s coalition were asked whether they support or oppose a ceasefire in Lebanon at this stage of the war:

• 88% opposed
• 10% are in favor

Considering that a ceasefire would serve as a temporary pause, until the US admin changes, are you in favor or opposed?

• 55% are in favor
• 41% opposed

By: @FotrosResistance

🇮🇱 Today the Israeli army released a very insightful report about the tank and APC losses they maintained in their year long war in Gaza and 2 month war in Lebanon

Will put them as pointers below, to ease reading:

- The Israeli tank corps and vehicles are at 88% competency after nearly 14 months of fighting. Which implies 12% of the total active fleet was damaged beyond repair or is in maintenance.

- The IDF announced that 90% of tanks and APCs damaged by anti-tank missile fire or large explosive devices amid the fighting have been repaired and returned to service.

Which implies 10% of all what was attacked in Lebanon and Gaza has been fully scrapped.

- On average, armored vehicles that sustained heavy damage take some 20 days for repairs before they are returned to service.

- Some very heavily damaged armored vehicles undergo a long recovery process, which takes months and years.

Damage to Merkava tanks because of ATGM penetration and IEDs, will cause damage but could be repeared after long overhaul process.

- Some minor issues with the IDF's armored vehicles are fixed in the battle zone or at forward operating bases. The IDF says that 90% of the minor issues are fixed in the battle zone.

✍ The report doesn't openly say how many tanks were penetrated in Lebanon and Gaza, nor how many were attacked.