Second Question: Did Israel's war on Lebanon and Hezbullah achieve the results it wanted? Was Hezbullah defeated❓
I explained in a previous set of posts what will constitute an Israeli win or loss, and what will constitute a Hezbullah win or loss.
What did Israel achieve in this war:
- Kill Hezbullah's historic leader
- Degrade Hezbullah's historic leadership
- Degrade Hezbullah's infrastructure
- Degrade Hezbullah's capabilities
- Degrade Hezbullah's manpower
- Neutralize Hezbullah's Galilee invasion plan (I hope they never do it, because it's not feasible)
In terms of degrading, it doesn't mean they degraded it to zero, but caused substantial losses that affected it.
What did Israel fail to do:
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's Control and Command, where brave men filled the void fast and took control of the leadership and commanded this war
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's ability to control its forces and the commination between different towns
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's rocket and ballistic units and they have been constant throughout the war, in both staging and firing
- Failed to collapse Hezbullah defense forces, which heroically defended the border villages despite 1 year of daily Israeli attacks that softened these targets
- Failed to force by miliary Hezbullah behind the Litani river
- Failed to bring back setters home deposite operating on the whole border
- Failed to reach in 2 months as deep as they did in 20 days in 2006 or in 5 days in 1982. If it was easy they would have been anywhere now.
- Failed to force Hezbullah's community to protest again it for this war and lose truste
- Failed to have other Lebanese join Israel in fighting Hezbullah
Etc......
To avoid the rest. Failed to defeat a resistance and opted to a ceasefire where local and foreign forces can do its job for it.
Why do I say so? Because I personally believe the Israeli army is one of the strongest and most capable in the world, and I'm confident Israel can set a goal to reach anywhere and they can reach. However is is a matter of how much costs are they willing to pay to reach that place.
So why will Israel and Netanyahu agree on a ceasefire when they are able? Because as much as they are able materialistically, the moment they lose the will to fight and they project the cost to have that "blue arrow" reach a location too costly and too harsh, they will stop. They fail.
Hezbullah's leadership agree on this understanding when they mention clearly, both Sayyed and Abdul Qader, that it was the loss of Israel's will/ability to fight is what brought in their defeat in 2006 and so on.
Was Hezbullah defeated?
Hezbullah as a resistance was affected by this war and paid a heavy price, but it was not defeated.
Let's be honest here. This isn't a cope like some clowns will claim. Defeat is clear. German's were defeated in WW2 because they lost their Reich and they collapsed into a different identity.
Saddam's regime was defeated because he seized to exist. The Soviet Union lost the cold war because it collapsed from within. The Western world lost their empires because countries were created. The U.S lost the war in Vietnam because the north won by surviving despite everything. Understand my logic here?
Ending the war now, with these vague conditions that will elaborate soon on, will be a return to the status quo.
Lebanese foes are stunned because Hezbullah didn't collapse. Israel didn't get rid of Hezbullah's rocket fire and brave soldiers. And Hezbullah has the knowledge to mass recruit again, rebuild, re-dig, re-arm, re-train.
I also know they will investigate. Learn from the mistakes, know what happened and become better. This is what they did in 2006, where they sat with people and fighters and asked them what they felt needed to be better and they build upon that.
If this war ends, Hezbullah will have to forge itself again much stronger and able. Now it's like a core of the strongest metal in the world too hot its soft, and needs a good smith to forge it into a sword that can cut through anything. #admin
I explained in a previous set of posts what will constitute an Israeli win or loss, and what will constitute a Hezbullah win or loss.
What did Israel achieve in this war:
- Kill Hezbullah's historic leader
- Degrade Hezbullah's historic leadership
- Degrade Hezbullah's infrastructure
- Degrade Hezbullah's capabilities
- Degrade Hezbullah's manpower
- Neutralize Hezbullah's Galilee invasion plan (I hope they never do it, because it's not feasible)
In terms of degrading, it doesn't mean they degraded it to zero, but caused substantial losses that affected it.
What did Israel fail to do:
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's Control and Command, where brave men filled the void fast and took control of the leadership and commanded this war
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's ability to control its forces and the commination between different towns
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's rocket and ballistic units and they have been constant throughout the war, in both staging and firing
- Failed to collapse Hezbullah defense forces, which heroically defended the border villages despite 1 year of daily Israeli attacks that softened these targets
- Failed to force by miliary Hezbullah behind the Litani river
- Failed to bring back setters home deposite operating on the whole border
- Failed to reach in 2 months as deep as they did in 20 days in 2006 or in 5 days in 1982. If it was easy they would have been anywhere now.
- Failed to force Hezbullah's community to protest again it for this war and lose truste
- Failed to have other Lebanese join Israel in fighting Hezbullah
Etc......
To avoid the rest. Failed to defeat a resistance and opted to a ceasefire where local and foreign forces can do its job for it.
Why do I say so? Because I personally believe the Israeli army is one of the strongest and most capable in the world, and I'm confident Israel can set a goal to reach anywhere and they can reach. However is is a matter of how much costs are they willing to pay to reach that place.
So why will Israel and Netanyahu agree on a ceasefire when they are able? Because as much as they are able materialistically, the moment they lose the will to fight and they project the cost to have that "blue arrow" reach a location too costly and too harsh, they will stop. They fail.
Hezbullah's leadership agree on this understanding when they mention clearly, both Sayyed and Abdul Qader, that it was the loss of Israel's will/ability to fight is what brought in their defeat in 2006 and so on.
Was Hezbullah defeated?
Hezbullah as a resistance was affected by this war and paid a heavy price, but it was not defeated.
Let's be honest here. This isn't a cope like some clowns will claim. Defeat is clear. German's were defeated in WW2 because they lost their Reich and they collapsed into a different identity.
Saddam's regime was defeated because he seized to exist. The Soviet Union lost the cold war because it collapsed from within. The Western world lost their empires because countries were created. The U.S lost the war in Vietnam because the north won by surviving despite everything. Understand my logic here?
Ending the war now, with these vague conditions that will elaborate soon on, will be a return to the status quo.
Lebanese foes are stunned because Hezbullah didn't collapse. Israel didn't get rid of Hezbullah's rocket fire and brave soldiers. And Hezbullah has the knowledge to mass recruit again, rebuild, re-dig, re-arm, re-train.
I also know they will investigate. Learn from the mistakes, know what happened and become better. This is what they did in 2006, where they sat with people and fighters and asked them what they felt needed to be better and they build upon that.
If this war ends, Hezbullah will have to forge itself again much stronger and able. Now it's like a core of the strongest metal in the world too hot its soft, and needs a good smith to forge it into a sword that can cut through anything. #admin
🫡65👎34👍30
"The enemy committed massacres, destroyed our countries, divided our nation, bet on some weak and cowards, and targeted leaders and heroes to tell us one word: "There is no point in resistance" but they failed."- Martyr Sayyed Hashem Safi al-Din (may God be pleased with him)
And with these words that foreshadowed, Israel lost because it failed to conquer the people and force the resistance to surrender.
The mood in Israel today is clear, they are mad because they feel they didn't achieve what they expected to in Lebanon.
They will agree to a ceasefire 48 hours after Hezbullah made Israel from Metulla to Tel Aviv under fire.
If Lebanon showed weakness and was "an easy meal", Israel would not have agreed on a ceasefire. Justify it elsewise.
Last part of the thread below will talk about the ceasefire, what are its terms and will it stand? #admin
👍88👎34🫡10🤬4💔4👀2
Final question: Is this ceasefire good for Lebanon. Did Hezbullah achieve any deterrence similar to the 2006 war❓
All the above details and reasoning justified the logic of this ceasefire and and highlighted some misconceptions for many then tackled what was achieved and what was lost in this battle where Israel was the aggressor and Hezbullah the defender.
Some points are clear and Hezbullah is unlikely to tackle them this clearly in terms of saying "we reached our peak" however their honesty is seen through their actions.
Before I continue, I'd like to ask those who never heard an airstrike, shot at, or injured or ever were part of a military to stfu and ahhhh to go show us what they can achieve better and risk their lives and their peace in life and involve themselves in the risks of war and resistance
Second and very importantly, it is important not to compare Hezbullah to Iraq's resistance or Yemen's Ansraullah. It's quite simple but people continue to compare apples to oranges......let's call it compare avocado oil with olive oil.
In brief, the difference stems from the heat caused to each during this support front. This is why I used the oil analogy on purpose. The direct burden faced by Lebanon in one day, surpasses the collective burdens faced by both Yemen and Iraq in a full year and this is an important factor that affects the decision making.
Had Iraq been under constant Israeli attacks, which so far it wasn't attacked once, and if Yemen is under constant attacks on its ports, airports, and so on.. things would be a little different. Even despite that, comparing Iraq to Yemen also is wrong. Each front has its own peculiarities and special conditions.
Now, what are the terms of this ceasefire:
The agreement will actually lead to an immediate ceasefire that can come into effect within hours on the border.
Tomorrow at 4 pm the Israeli cabinet will meet to discuss the details of the agreement and is expected to approve it during the discussion.
These are the main points of the agreement as we revealed on the weekend:
- The IDF will withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days
- The forces of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL will be deployed along all border crossings
- An international committee headed by the US will be established to enforce the agreement
- Israel and Lebanon will agree to hold negotiations on the border route
It's simple. It's like the war never happened and Hezbullah didn't conceed anything. Hezbullah isn't going to surrender its arms, no one is forcing it to dismantle itself. No one is forcing it to become solely a political party
And if there was condition to demand Hezbullah to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani? Well as the weapons entered in secret without anyone seeing them, Hezbullah can assume there is nothing to move. It's really all about deception and bluff.
What will happen is it'll become harder for Hezbullah to manage rebuilding in secret because the Lebanese army and the UN might become more proactive.
The threat also is tha Israel will get what is called a freedom of action mechanism:
If an "immediate threat" is identified - Israel has the freedom to act immediately, to attack and remove the threat. This sounds bad, but it is also about Lebanon. It's like self defense not freedom of operation in Lebanon. Assume Israel detects a rocket launcher being primed to fire at them.
The agreement also includes possibly a clause that if a non-immediate threat is detected (for example - they detect an attempt to dig a tunnel near the border) - Israel will alert the monitoring and enforcement mechanism led by the US.
The mechanism will be required to activate the Lebanese army and UNIFIL against the violation. If there is no enforcement, or if the threat becomes immediate - Israel will attack. I talked about this here, read it.
What is unfortunate, is that this ceasefire won't free Hezbullah fighters and martyr bodies who were captured in this war. This will cause issues eventually. There are about 7-8 prisoners and many bodies.
Continued below. #admin
All the above details and reasoning justified the logic of this ceasefire and and highlighted some misconceptions for many then tackled what was achieved and what was lost in this battle where Israel was the aggressor and Hezbullah the defender.
Some points are clear and Hezbullah is unlikely to tackle them this clearly in terms of saying "we reached our peak" however their honesty is seen through their actions.
Before I continue, I'd like to ask those who never heard an airstrike, shot at, or injured or ever were part of a military to stfu and ahhhh to go show us what they can achieve better and risk their lives and their peace in life and involve themselves in the risks of war and resistance
Second and very importantly, it is important not to compare Hezbullah to Iraq's resistance or Yemen's Ansraullah. It's quite simple but people continue to compare apples to oranges......let's call it compare avocado oil with olive oil.
In brief, the difference stems from the heat caused to each during this support front. This is why I used the oil analogy on purpose. The direct burden faced by Lebanon in one day, surpasses the collective burdens faced by both Yemen and Iraq in a full year and this is an important factor that affects the decision making.
Had Iraq been under constant Israeli attacks, which so far it wasn't attacked once, and if Yemen is under constant attacks on its ports, airports, and so on.. things would be a little different. Even despite that, comparing Iraq to Yemen also is wrong. Each front has its own peculiarities and special conditions.
Now, what are the terms of this ceasefire:
The agreement will actually lead to an immediate ceasefire that can come into effect within hours on the border.
Tomorrow at 4 pm the Israeli cabinet will meet to discuss the details of the agreement and is expected to approve it during the discussion.
These are the main points of the agreement as we revealed on the weekend:
- The IDF will withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days
- The forces of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL will be deployed along all border crossings
- An international committee headed by the US will be established to enforce the agreement
- Israel and Lebanon will agree to hold negotiations on the border route
It's simple. It's like the war never happened and Hezbullah didn't conceed anything. Hezbullah isn't going to surrender its arms, no one is forcing it to dismantle itself. No one is forcing it to become solely a political party
And if there was condition to demand Hezbullah to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani? Well as the weapons entered in secret without anyone seeing them, Hezbullah can assume there is nothing to move. It's really all about deception and bluff.
What will happen is it'll become harder for Hezbullah to manage rebuilding in secret because the Lebanese army and the UN might become more proactive.
The threat also is tha Israel will get what is called a freedom of action mechanism:
If an "immediate threat" is identified - Israel has the freedom to act immediately, to attack and remove the threat. This sounds bad, but it is also about Lebanon. It's like self defense not freedom of operation in Lebanon. Assume Israel detects a rocket launcher being primed to fire at them.
The agreement also includes possibly a clause that if a non-immediate threat is detected (for example - they detect an attempt to dig a tunnel near the border) - Israel will alert the monitoring and enforcement mechanism led by the US.
The mechanism will be required to activate the Lebanese army and UNIFIL against the violation. If there is no enforcement, or if the threat becomes immediate - Israel will attack. I talked about this here, read it.
What is unfortunate, is that this ceasefire won't free Hezbullah fighters and martyr bodies who were captured in this war. This will cause issues eventually. There are about 7-8 prisoners and many bodies.
Continued below. #admin
👍41👎25🤬6
Part 2
The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.
As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.
However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.
We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.
Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.
They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.
This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.
An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here
On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.
The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?
Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.
I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.
Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.
There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin
The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.
As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.
However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.
We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.
Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.
They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.
This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.
An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here
On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.
The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?
Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.
I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.
Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.
There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin
👎37🫡24👍16👀1
Finally, you should stay silent...shhhh Shhh, but about what❓
You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you
How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.
Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.
Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here
As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin
You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you
How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.
Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.
Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here
As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin
👍118👎19🫡10🤬1👀1
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🇱🇧 This particular video has been shared by many in a way to ridicule Hezbullah if it accepts a ceasefire.
Sometimes, many who shared it were ones that accused Hezbullah of not doing enough for months after 7-Oct-23 and many who attacked this great martyr for his speech in Nov-23 that they found "lacking"
Then he told everyone, there is no single button to press to defeat Israel. It is a series of continuous battles and efforts over the time.
Some ask: How do they accept to end the war now, and didn't the pager attack single the start of the war. This speech is after the pager attack
In brief since I already explained the ceasefire details, he is clearly talking about "Jabhat Lubnan" or Lebanon's [support] front. As for the pager attack, yes it was the start of the war for Israel but Hezbullah didnt see it as a start of the war yet. They treated it as yet another blow, they will try to absorb and not escalate to avoid a greater war in Lebanon.
Nothing was more important for Hezbullah during those 11 months but to absorb every single blow, and retaliate in a limited scope to avoid a grand war in Lebanon.
Else how do you justify Hezbullah's reluctance to fire rockets and then taking time to plan a limited retaliation for the pager attack?
Hezbullah's leadership was still walking in the open and they held public funerals. Sayyed Saffieddine was himself in one which a radio expldoded at and other leadership were visiting houses and doing lectures.
The situation was different and the assessment was different. 1 year of a daily war in south Lebanon and then two months of a grand war in Lebanon, and some would still accuse Hezbullah of abandoning them.
Now let me put it differently.
Gaza has been in negotiations for one year to stop the war in Gaza, and Israel has been clear that they won't stop the attacks on Lebanon even if the war in Gaza ends.
Does this mean Gaza has to reject the ceasefire and continue with the war because Israel won't stop its attacks in Lebanon? Of course not.
In the second ceasefire in Gaza and during the Eid holidays, Israel stopped attacks in Gaza but continued to attacks in Lebanon.
The goal...is one. Ensuring the resistance front against Israel continues and survives. This is a battle in a 70+ years long war. It's is one of many obstacles and a step in this thorny road.
Some people want to continue watching Lebanon being destroyed and Hezbullah attacked to feel good that they are helping Gaza, when we already established how this front reached its peak ability to influence.
Judge wisely, and look for the long term and not the short terms of events. This ceasefire might not even mature and might collapse in days or weeks.
The goal of the support front was to end the war in Gaza, not bring down both Gaza and Lebanon. Israel accepting a ceasefire now is a step closer to ending the war in both Lebanon and Gaza.
Because trust me, the next big thing is in the West Bank, who was largely largely silent about the events in Gaza. Then, slogans "Yalla ya Gaza" won't help, because it is long long overdue and overdone. Likewise in regards of the 1948 Palestinians that stayed as obedient goys. #admin
Sometimes, many who shared it were ones that accused Hezbullah of not doing enough for months after 7-Oct-23 and many who attacked this great martyr for his speech in Nov-23 that they found "lacking"
Then he told everyone, there is no single button to press to defeat Israel. It is a series of continuous battles and efforts over the time.
Some ask: How do they accept to end the war now, and didn't the pager attack single the start of the war. This speech is after the pager attack
In brief since I already explained the ceasefire details, he is clearly talking about "Jabhat Lubnan" or Lebanon's [support] front. As for the pager attack, yes it was the start of the war for Israel but Hezbullah didnt see it as a start of the war yet. They treated it as yet another blow, they will try to absorb and not escalate to avoid a greater war in Lebanon.
Nothing was more important for Hezbullah during those 11 months but to absorb every single blow, and retaliate in a limited scope to avoid a grand war in Lebanon.
Else how do you justify Hezbullah's reluctance to fire rockets and then taking time to plan a limited retaliation for the pager attack?
Hezbullah's leadership was still walking in the open and they held public funerals. Sayyed Saffieddine was himself in one which a radio expldoded at and other leadership were visiting houses and doing lectures.
The situation was different and the assessment was different. 1 year of a daily war in south Lebanon and then two months of a grand war in Lebanon, and some would still accuse Hezbullah of abandoning them.
Now let me put it differently.
Gaza has been in negotiations for one year to stop the war in Gaza, and Israel has been clear that they won't stop the attacks on Lebanon even if the war in Gaza ends.
Does this mean Gaza has to reject the ceasefire and continue with the war because Israel won't stop its attacks in Lebanon? Of course not.
In the second ceasefire in Gaza and during the Eid holidays, Israel stopped attacks in Gaza but continued to attacks in Lebanon.
The goal...is one. Ensuring the resistance front against Israel continues and survives. This is a battle in a 70+ years long war. It's is one of many obstacles and a step in this thorny road.
Some people want to continue watching Lebanon being destroyed and Hezbullah attacked to feel good that they are helping Gaza, when we already established how this front reached its peak ability to influence.
Judge wisely, and look for the long term and not the short terms of events. This ceasefire might not even mature and might collapse in days or weeks.
The goal of the support front was to end the war in Gaza, not bring down both Gaza and Lebanon. Israel accepting a ceasefire now is a step closer to ending the war in both Lebanon and Gaza.
Because trust me, the next big thing is in the West Bank, who was largely largely silent about the events in Gaza. Then, slogans "Yalla ya Gaza" won't help, because it is long long overdue and overdone. Likewise in regards of the 1948 Palestinians that stayed as obedient goys. #admin
5👍92👎44🫡12👀9🤬4💔1
📰 Some Lebanese are so sad Israeli didn't reach Tyre and Nabatieh and buss the Shia and Hezbullah into concentration camps, they are working on social media to claim that Lebanon is now under US-UK military occupation and that Hezbullah has surrendered and soon they will be forced to dismantle.
Some even likened the situation to Chapter VII and our banks are under US supervision now. (As if our banks aren't already and that it was the US's favorite goons who contributed to the sector's collapse)
Do you actually know that Hezbullah's MPs can't have bank account in their own country from years ago? That's why they are pissed at how secure and good Qard al-Hassan is.
Look, the matter is quite simple, this war didn't end nor did it start in the best optimal way for Lebanon, but it was concluded in a way that was enough for Hezbullah to retain a lot and survive in a way it is largely able to roll back many of the issues that faced it. That in comparison to Gaza or many other examples around us.
However despite this victory, not one like 2006 or one thay pained the IDF, the coming days and weeks are going to be a challenge in which Lebanon might be subjected to some violations by the Israeli army.
Imagine a raging rabid dog, suddenly forced to be sedated, snd is starting to wake up edging for more violence? It's prey is there but there is a thin barrier between them.
So events that will happen and how Lebanon acts towards them will either contribute in building a deterrence or eroding it. We either reach a level of post-2006 or reach a situation likened to Syria.
So how we act, react, respond, will all play an important role. Just give things time because what happened is great and grave, snd water needs to flow back to it's place.
Back in 2006 Israeli violations happened, they mounted a large raid in Baalbek a few days after, they killed Imad Moghnieh in 2008, recruited two senior Hezbullah commanders, killed Hassan Lakkis in 2013...etc
The war never stops...it takes different shapes.
We are Lebanese from Beirut, South, Beqaa hope for a longer pause like post-2006 but we have to understand there will challenges.
People have to cooperate with each other and help fortifying the homefront and have faith in Hezbullah's decisions.
Pray for their success. Between Netanyahy and Trump, and the new war in Syria's Allepo and a possible renewed US economic war on Iran...we will see no rest.
And as Imam Hussen said to those who want to escape: "This is the night, take it as an excuse to leave from the battle".
Have faith...and patience and time will show how events unfolds.
As we were happy visiting our homes yesterday after the IDF was forced into a ceasefire, some people started planning from that moment on how to prepare for the future from politics, to economy, to taking care of the people, to war.
Building deterrence now is like water shaping stone. It can be done, it's natural, it needs time. #admin
Some even likened the situation to Chapter VII and our banks are under US supervision now. (As if our banks aren't already and that it was the US's favorite goons who contributed to the sector's collapse)
Do you actually know that Hezbullah's MPs can't have bank account in their own country from years ago? That's why they are pissed at how secure and good Qard al-Hassan is.
Look, the matter is quite simple, this war didn't end nor did it start in the best optimal way for Lebanon, but it was concluded in a way that was enough for Hezbullah to retain a lot and survive in a way it is largely able to roll back many of the issues that faced it. That in comparison to Gaza or many other examples around us.
However despite this victory, not one like 2006 or one thay pained the IDF, the coming days and weeks are going to be a challenge in which Lebanon might be subjected to some violations by the Israeli army.
Imagine a raging rabid dog, suddenly forced to be sedated, snd is starting to wake up edging for more violence? It's prey is there but there is a thin barrier between them.
So events that will happen and how Lebanon acts towards them will either contribute in building a deterrence or eroding it. We either reach a level of post-2006 or reach a situation likened to Syria.
So how we act, react, respond, will all play an important role. Just give things time because what happened is great and grave, snd water needs to flow back to it's place.
Back in 2006 Israeli violations happened, they mounted a large raid in Baalbek a few days after, they killed Imad Moghnieh in 2008, recruited two senior Hezbullah commanders, killed Hassan Lakkis in 2013...etc
The war never stops...it takes different shapes.
We are Lebanese from Beirut, South, Beqaa hope for a longer pause like post-2006 but we have to understand there will challenges.
People have to cooperate with each other and help fortifying the homefront and have faith in Hezbullah's decisions.
Pray for their success. Between Netanyahy and Trump, and the new war in Syria's Allepo and a possible renewed US economic war on Iran...we will see no rest.
And as Imam Hussen said to those who want to escape: "This is the night, take it as an excuse to leave from the battle".
Have faith...and patience and time will show how events unfolds.
As we were happy visiting our homes yesterday after the IDF was forced into a ceasefire, some people started planning from that moment on how to prepare for the future from politics, to economy, to taking care of the people, to war.
Building deterrence now is like water shaping stone. It can be done, it's natural, it needs time. #admin
❤🔥88👎32👍30👀4🫡2
For me, believe it for it, the survival of Iran is more important than any retaliation against Israel, because Iran is the root that if withered, will weaken all. Iran can help but Iran has its limitations and ability and economic burdens.
Well see inshallah.
For you, people, understand that we are at one of the most critical phases in our lives, a situation as stressing as 2005, or 2006, or 2011-2013 and you will play a role by being patient and understanding and willing to sacrifice some luxuries to help safeguard this nation. Or else, everything will be lost or weakened for long.
Our enemies are many, some strong, some weak, some intact but that's life when you choice to have a conscious and obey God's laws and abide by his statements #admin
Well see inshallah.
For you, people, understand that we are at one of the most critical phases in our lives, a situation as stressing as 2005, or 2006, or 2011-2013 and you will play a role by being patient and understanding and willing to sacrifice some luxuries to help safeguard this nation. Or else, everything will be lost or weakened for long.
Our enemies are many, some strong, some weak, some intact but that's life when you choice to have a conscious and obey God's laws and abide by his statements #admin
🫡110👎59❤🔥18👍14🤬9
There are any things that you can categorize the Syrian war as, but one is surely a civil and one is surely an international conflict. Its civil because it rose from the core of the Syrian population who once truthfully called for reform and change, taking the arab spring as a catalyst against the legitimate Syrian government. It is also an international conflict, because there were mothers from dozens of countries mourning their sons from this war. From Damascus to Bou Kamal, to Beirut, to Tehran, to Moscow, but also to Riyadh and Cairo and almost every single Arab, Asian, European, and African capital.
For me personally, i cannot forget the faces of those whose remains are forever lost in the vast fields of Syria, or my teacher who rose to heavens murdered at hands of ISIS in the far east, the or that night talk with that red head sheikh who jokingly told me he'll never step foot in the Syrian desert anymore after the horrors he witnessed from having to escape an ISIS advance near T2 at night there.
I say those words because they are and will always be the true representation of events, and the catalyst was always there from within the country. There is no doubt Pres Bachar al-Assad has greatly contributed to the wellbeing of the Syrian people and served his country, but there was a level of injustice perpetrated throughout the ranks of the government and the system as whole the create some type of hate that transcended the ability to reform, and the gap only got worse with time. This is my honest opinion of this conflict from day one, and as someone whose religion was shaped out of fighting Kufr and injustice, i cannot but note this.
Back in 2011, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was fast to voice support to the popular uprising in the arab world and called the peaceful protests that took place in Egypt, Bahrain, Tounis and others are just. There was injustice and he supported the rise against injustice. However not long after, and this wave of just protests spread to dear Syria, the ally of Hezbullah who has long stood next to the resistance in Lebanon and was a key partner in helping it fight the Israeli occupation and both liberate Lebanon and emerge victorious from the 2006 war.
However as fast as these events started, the faster the situation escalated from what was a peaceful civil movement mimicking its arab neighbors to a violent suppression of protests and terrorist attacks on both the civilians and the state. It was remarkable how cynical the events unfolded, and how truly how many false flags happened that increased the bloodshed of innocent from both sides of the political spectrum setting the stage for a 13 year international conflict fought in Syria. There were also many crimes committed by loyalist soldiers, who were never punished by the Syrian government, including execution, torture, and burying some alive. Unforgiveable.
The actions of the terrorists were clear, from shooting to bombing, to assassinating core figures from the system including Khaleyat Al-Azmah in 2012 which was created to manage the internal strife. There did not seek peaceful action.
Early on, Pres Bacahr made a lot of noticeable reforms and released hundreds from prisons in an effort to present to the emerging protests that there is path for reform and the states is willing to negotiate solutions, however there was no one interested in a solution in Syria. The opposition was promised the presidential palace, but here is where it gets murky. What opposition exactly, out of the hundreds of factions that started to be spwan everywhere.
In those very critical months, before Hezbullah got involved in active conflict, they sent various delegations to meet opposition figures and try to soften the situation and find a compromise for both sides to agree on. They tried to speak sense into the opposition, avoid a war, and truly defeat the obstacles. However no one of them was interested in such a solution or compromise. Qatar, KSA, Jordan, and the US promised them much more than what a compromise could ever achieve for them. #admin
For me personally, i cannot forget the faces of those whose remains are forever lost in the vast fields of Syria, or my teacher who rose to heavens murdered at hands of ISIS in the far east, the or that night talk with that red head sheikh who jokingly told me he'll never step foot in the Syrian desert anymore after the horrors he witnessed from having to escape an ISIS advance near T2 at night there.
I say those words because they are and will always be the true representation of events, and the catalyst was always there from within the country. There is no doubt Pres Bachar al-Assad has greatly contributed to the wellbeing of the Syrian people and served his country, but there was a level of injustice perpetrated throughout the ranks of the government and the system as whole the create some type of hate that transcended the ability to reform, and the gap only got worse with time. This is my honest opinion of this conflict from day one, and as someone whose religion was shaped out of fighting Kufr and injustice, i cannot but note this.
Back in 2011, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was fast to voice support to the popular uprising in the arab world and called the peaceful protests that took place in Egypt, Bahrain, Tounis and others are just. There was injustice and he supported the rise against injustice. However not long after, and this wave of just protests spread to dear Syria, the ally of Hezbullah who has long stood next to the resistance in Lebanon and was a key partner in helping it fight the Israeli occupation and both liberate Lebanon and emerge victorious from the 2006 war.
However as fast as these events started, the faster the situation escalated from what was a peaceful civil movement mimicking its arab neighbors to a violent suppression of protests and terrorist attacks on both the civilians and the state. It was remarkable how cynical the events unfolded, and how truly how many false flags happened that increased the bloodshed of innocent from both sides of the political spectrum setting the stage for a 13 year international conflict fought in Syria. There were also many crimes committed by loyalist soldiers, who were never punished by the Syrian government, including execution, torture, and burying some alive. Unforgiveable.
The actions of the terrorists were clear, from shooting to bombing, to assassinating core figures from the system including Khaleyat Al-Azmah in 2012 which was created to manage the internal strife. There did not seek peaceful action.
Early on, Pres Bacahr made a lot of noticeable reforms and released hundreds from prisons in an effort to present to the emerging protests that there is path for reform and the states is willing to negotiate solutions, however there was no one interested in a solution in Syria. The opposition was promised the presidential palace, but here is where it gets murky. What opposition exactly, out of the hundreds of factions that started to be spwan everywhere.
In those very critical months, before Hezbullah got involved in active conflict, they sent various delegations to meet opposition figures and try to soften the situation and find a compromise for both sides to agree on. They tried to speak sense into the opposition, avoid a war, and truly defeat the obstacles. However no one of them was interested in such a solution or compromise. Qatar, KSA, Jordan, and the US promised them much more than what a compromise could ever achieve for them. #admin
👍98👎16🤬5💔5
✍ Some fast Questions and answers, hoping they help the pro-resistance fellow for more insight on the present or the future.
(You are usually my target audience and why I do these explanations)
There is no order of importance for these questions:
❓Will Israel's new front in Syria help the situation in Lebanon by diverting some attention
At face value yes, this would be helpful to ensure that those 60 days will pass and the IDF to largely disengage. They have a new front tbry need to gather intel about and prepare for the worst case scenario. Although, Jewlani is unlikely to fight the Israelis nor is he expected at any present time to showcase himself as their enemy.
However the IDF understands that the fall of Syria has cut of Hezbullah from Iran, and what they damaged cannot be easily replaced. So what now?
Although it is unlikely they plan to reignite the war for the sake of further damage in Lebanon, they remains a slim possiblity. The calm is in their favor.
Hezbullah reads the situation well, and will not give Israel any pretext to such action. Yet, it is crucial for the Lebanese government to exert pressure on the US to keep Israel in line.
❓Will the fall of Assad play in favor of the Lebanese parties such as LF, PSP, and so on?
At face value you'd think yes, but in reality no. Ever since Bachar disengaged in 2005, there hasn't been a real influence on the situation in Lebanon nor Syrian agenda
The ones that Damascus used to control as pawns, are the ones that ended up backstabbing it and becoming the opposition. Hezbullah was always independent, Amal wasn't good friends with Syria, and FPM are in decline for failing to catch up.
What his fall represents, is rallying catalyst for their supporters and a drive towards their grander goals in Lebanon because they see themselves as victors. There is a lot of hypocrisy here about how they are acting, but this is a historic study.
So with no affect on Lebanon in terms of political power projection, these parties might try to maximize their aims in light of Hezbullah's internal weakening because of the war. However it is unlikely they will be successful in forcing the party out of the upcoming government or elect Samir Gaegae for example.
Sheikh Naim is a veteran in Lebanese politics. He used to manage the file for Sayyed Hassan.
❓ Where is Bachar? Why did he do this?
It's too early to judge why Bachar just decided to abandon Syria after 13 years and call it a day.
The man refused all Western and Arab bribes to stay in power back in 2012 and fought against all threats, to suddenly pack and leave?
He didn't address the Syrians, he didn't announce the reasons, he abandoned everyone who ever saw him a leader and didn't give them a chance to understand the situation. He didn't give the orders to the army to fight until allies can arrive to help. He surrendered Syria without a fight.
There is no deal he can accept that was worth it, even safety wise, he was safe. One thing is, I'm glad he decided to abandon it without a fight than fight and then leave.
Bachar's deals with the Arab and West didn't save him, even cozing up to Saudi Arabia and UAE. On 10/2023 he forced Ansarallah to abandon their embassy in Syria and hand it to Saudi Arabia. There are a lot of question.
Bachar built a castle of sand, and allowed Syria's enemies to crumble it with a bucket of water. Regardless, Bachar was unable to rule any longer, it was long overdue for him to hand the leadership for other national Syrian figures and a build a country that didn't need one man to decide its fate.
(To be continued) #admin
(You are usually my target audience and why I do these explanations)
There is no order of importance for these questions:
❓Will Israel's new front in Syria help the situation in Lebanon by diverting some attention
At face value yes, this would be helpful to ensure that those 60 days will pass and the IDF to largely disengage. They have a new front tbry need to gather intel about and prepare for the worst case scenario. Although, Jewlani is unlikely to fight the Israelis nor is he expected at any present time to showcase himself as their enemy.
However the IDF understands that the fall of Syria has cut of Hezbullah from Iran, and what they damaged cannot be easily replaced. So what now?
Although it is unlikely they plan to reignite the war for the sake of further damage in Lebanon, they remains a slim possiblity. The calm is in their favor.
Hezbullah reads the situation well, and will not give Israel any pretext to such action. Yet, it is crucial for the Lebanese government to exert pressure on the US to keep Israel in line.
❓Will the fall of Assad play in favor of the Lebanese parties such as LF, PSP, and so on?
At face value you'd think yes, but in reality no. Ever since Bachar disengaged in 2005, there hasn't been a real influence on the situation in Lebanon nor Syrian agenda
The ones that Damascus used to control as pawns, are the ones that ended up backstabbing it and becoming the opposition. Hezbullah was always independent, Amal wasn't good friends with Syria, and FPM are in decline for failing to catch up.
What his fall represents, is rallying catalyst for their supporters and a drive towards their grander goals in Lebanon because they see themselves as victors. There is a lot of hypocrisy here about how they are acting, but this is a historic study.
So with no affect on Lebanon in terms of political power projection, these parties might try to maximize their aims in light of Hezbullah's internal weakening because of the war. However it is unlikely they will be successful in forcing the party out of the upcoming government or elect Samir Gaegae for example.
Sheikh Naim is a veteran in Lebanese politics. He used to manage the file for Sayyed Hassan.
❓ Where is Bachar? Why did he do this?
It's too early to judge why Bachar just decided to abandon Syria after 13 years and call it a day.
The man refused all Western and Arab bribes to stay in power back in 2012 and fought against all threats, to suddenly pack and leave?
He didn't address the Syrians, he didn't announce the reasons, he abandoned everyone who ever saw him a leader and didn't give them a chance to understand the situation. He didn't give the orders to the army to fight until allies can arrive to help. He surrendered Syria without a fight.
There is no deal he can accept that was worth it, even safety wise, he was safe. One thing is, I'm glad he decided to abandon it without a fight than fight and then leave.
Bachar's deals with the Arab and West didn't save him, even cozing up to Saudi Arabia and UAE. On 10/2023 he forced Ansarallah to abandon their embassy in Syria and hand it to Saudi Arabia. There are a lot of question.
Bachar built a castle of sand, and allowed Syria's enemies to crumble it with a bucket of water. Regardless, Bachar was unable to rule any longer, it was long overdue for him to hand the leadership for other national Syrian figures and a build a country that didn't need one man to decide its fate.
(To be continued) #admin
🫡49👍32👎11👀8🤬2