With this map, I'll analyse with precision the current trends and next movements on the frontline as well as the location of the frontline
First, we can see 3 main areas of bombing : Pokrovsk-Dobrbropolye, Gulyaipole-Ternuvata and Stepnogorsk.
These are the two main axes of attack: Russia is putting a big effort to attack Orekhov from both sides and to take Dobropolye in the first part of the year.
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In the 12-day war of June 2025, Israel's daily operational cost was $725 million, covering mainly air sorties, fuel, and mobilization.
The total direct costs for the US and Israel ranged from $22–30 billion, with an average daily cost of about $2 billion when including all factors: military operations, air defense, physical damage, compensation, and interceptors.
In that conflict, Iran's missile capacity to inflict damage was limited. A new confrontation today would also involve naval forces and a vastly larger array of missiles, thousands of short-range ones that Iran certainly possesses.
Based on the numbers from the 12-day war, we can estimate that each day of operations now would cost $3-4 billion or more, especially considering that Iran has learned lessons from the previous war and is better prepared.
In 20 days of war, the figure could approach $100 billion.
But the costs don't stop there. If we take the minimum damage to a single base (like Al Udeid in Qatar), which ranged from $500 million to $1.5 billion, a massive, coordinated, and saturating Iranian attack on multiple US bases in the Gulf would cause astronomical damage.
We're talking about $80–100 billion in damage to US bases in the region alone. These figures are estimates drawn from think tank analyses (CSIS, JINSA, RAND) on Gulf base vulnerabilities and historical repair costs after attacks.
That alone would push a 20-day war toward $150–200 billion.
And remember: any prolonged escalation or impact on oil and gas, such as closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would multiply these figures exponentially.
Iran is in a comfortable position in the sense that it possesses the weapons to impose high costs in the event of a war, and, unlike June 2025, they are certain they will not be caught by surprise. It will be a hard war and it will not be brief.
🧵 Patricia Marins
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Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64)
Iran Won't Abandon Uranium: $150–200B War + Global Economic Fallout
In the 12-day war of June 2025, Israel's daily operational cost was $725 million, covering mainly air sorties, fuel, and mobilization.
The total direct costs for the US and Israel ranged…
In the 12-day war of June 2025, Israel's daily operational cost was $725 million, covering mainly air sorties, fuel, and mobilization.
The total direct costs for the US and Israel ranged…
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
✂️ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan’s opposition parties have advanced a bill that would slash a special military budget, potentially jeopardizing the purchases of billions of dollars of US weapons aimed at deterring the threat of invasion by China The Kuomintang and Taiwan…
The Trump administration is developing a package of four systems for Taiwan to purchase on the heels of the record $11.1bn arms package it unveiled in December, according to eight people familiar with the situation.
China has raised serious concerns about the package ahead of Trump’s planned meeting with President Xi Jinping in April. Three of the people said China had told the US that the arms sales could derail the visit.
Xi raised the Taiwan arms sales issue with Trump in a call on Wednesday. According to the Chinese foreign ministry, he emphasised that the US “must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence”.
Several people familiar with the situation said the package could be as big as $20bn. But others cautioned that the final number was in flux and might be closer to the December figure. Some US officials argue that China is bluffing and will not cancel the visit, according to two of the people.
The package will include four systems. In addition to Patriots, used to destroy incoming missiles, the US will allow Taiwan to buy more NASAMS, an advanced surface-to-air missile, and two other weapon systems.
Several people familiar with the matter said the administration had been planning to notify Congress about the package this month. But some experts believe Trump will postpone the move until he returns from China.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the US is obliged to sell weapons to Taiwan to provide for its own defence.
“As it has been for more than 40 years, the policy of the United States is to maintain Taiwan’s defensive capability relative to that of China,” a White House official said. “Credible deterrence has ensured peace and stability for many years — and will for many more. We do not comment on the specifics of pending sales.”
The arms sale package comes as frustrations are mounting in Washington about political wrangling in Taipei that is delaying the approval of a defence budget that would provide funds to buy weapons from the US.
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Ft
China warns US arms sales to Taiwan could threaten Trump visit in April
Washington is poised to authorise sale of Patriots and other weapons systems to Taipei
Observers note that the UK did not have F-35s at Akrotiri during the 12 Day War.
Their deployment suggests that the UK may take a more active role in the Israel-Iran conflict and not limit itself to just refueling Israeli jets and shooting down Iranian projectiles.
@CIG_telegram
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/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
According to GOP internal polling, even deep-red states like Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio are now in play
Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump's win in 2024 — are now liabilities.
"A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate," one GOP operative who's reviewed internal polling told Axios. "Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain."
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🇮🇱🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Barak Ravid, is an ex-Israeli intelligence officer turned journalist.
🔗 https://xn--r1a.website/GeoPWatch/26392
🔗 https://xn--r1a.website/GeoPWatch/26392
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Geopolitics Watch
#BREAKING
🇮🇱🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 — Just before going off air, Axios correspondent Barak Ravid claimed that the Iranians will see hints tomorrow of what the U.S. would do if the negotiations fail.
🇮🇱🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 — Just before going off air, Axios correspondent Barak Ravid claimed that the Iranians will see hints tomorrow of what the U.S. would do if the negotiations fail.
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
📢 🇺🇸 ⚖️ Hillary Clinton on X: "For six months, we engaged Republicans on the Oversight Committee in good faith. We told them what we know, under oath." "They ignored all of it. They moved the goalposts and turned accountability into an exercise in distraction."…
📢 🇺🇸 ⚖️ Bill Clinton on X:
"I have called for the full release of the Epstein files. I have provided a sworn statement of what I know. And just this week, I’ve agreed to appear in person before the committee. But it’s still not enough for Republicans on the House Oversight Committee."
"Now, Chairman Comer says he wants cameras, but only behind closed doors. Who benefits from this arrangement? It’s not Epstein’s victims, who deserve justice. Not the public, who deserve the truth. It serves only partisan interests. This is not fact-finding, it’s pure politics."
"I will not sit idly as they use me as a prop in a closed-door kangaroo court by a Republican Party running scared. If they want answers, let’s stop the games & do this the right way: in a public hearing, where the American people can see for themselves what this is really about."
📎 Bill Clinton
"I have called for the full release of the Epstein files. I have provided a sworn statement of what I know. And just this week, I’ve agreed to appear in person before the committee. But it’s still not enough for Republicans on the House Oversight Committee."
"Now, Chairman Comer says he wants cameras, but only behind closed doors. Who benefits from this arrangement? It’s not Epstein’s victims, who deserve justice. Not the public, who deserve the truth. It serves only partisan interests. This is not fact-finding, it’s pure politics."
"I will not sit idly as they use me as a prop in a closed-door kangaroo court by a Republican Party running scared. If they want answers, let’s stop the games & do this the right way: in a public hearing, where the American people can see for themselves what this is really about."
📎 Bill Clinton
🧵 Thread • FxTwitter
Bill Clinton (@BillClinton)
I have called for the full release of the Epstein files. I have provided a sworn statement of what I know. And just this week, I’ve agreed to appear in person before the committee. But it’s still not enough for Republicans on the House Oversight Committee.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday that may impose a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-signs-order-threatening-tariffs-nations-doing-business-with-iran-2026-02-06/
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Reuters
Trump signs order threatening tariffs on nations doing business with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday that may impose a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran.
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📢 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump says he had "very good talks" with Iran: "It looks like they want to make a deal badly... We'll see what the deal is. It'll be different than last time... We have a big fleet heading in that direction, it'll be there pretty soon. So we'll see how that works out."
📎 Disclosetv
📎 Disclosetv
🇸🇩 🇪🇹 🇸🇸 Sudan’s Ethiopia front has broken open in February 2026, as the Rapid Support Forces and SPLM-N (al-Hilu) launch a joint offensive in Blue Nile State, seizing Deim Mansour and advancing toward Kurmuk near the Ethiopian border. Sudanese officials say Ethiopia is hosting RSF fighters and facilitating United Arab Emirates–supervised drone strikes. Analysts say the offensive is meant to divert Sudanese Army forces from Kordofan, where the Army has recently made gains breaking the sieges of Dilling and Kadugli. Khartoum Kitchen co-founder Mohanad Elbalal writes that the impact may be limited: Southern Blue Nile is Sudan’s wettest region, and once the April rains begin, terrain and supply routes become impassable. If the Army holds Kurmuk until then, the offensive is likely to stall.
📎 DropSiteNews
📎 DropSiteNews
🇮🇹 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Israel was booed at the Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony in Milan, along with JD Vance and his wife, Usha, who were in attendance.
📎 AF Post
📎 AF Post
🇺🇸 US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, up 205% from December, to the highest January total since 2009.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/the-low-hire-low-fire-economy-may-be-starting-to-shift-with-more-layoffs-but-not-more-hiring.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/the-low-hire-low-fire-economy-may-be-starting-to-shift-with-more-layoffs-but-not-more-hiring.html
CNBC
The 'low-hire, low-fire' economy may be starting to shift with more layoffs—but not more hiring
Layoffs last month hit their highest January total since 2009, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
🇺🇸 The Nebraska Legislature has approved a bill lowering Nebraska’s minimum wage from $15 an hour to $13.50 for young workers, and slowing down minimum wage increases for others.
Sen. Megan Hunt said young people are having trouble affording things just like many others.
“Groceries cost the same, whether you're 17 or 37. Rent costs the same. Gas costs the same," she said.
https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/legislature-passes-minimum-wage-decrease-for-teen-workers/
Sen. Megan Hunt said young people are having trouble affording things just like many others.
“Groceries cost the same, whether you're 17 or 37. Rent costs the same. Gas costs the same," she said.
https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/legislature-passes-minimum-wage-decrease-for-teen-workers/
Nebraska Public Media
Legislature passes minimum wage decrease for teen workers
The Nebraska Legislature voted final approval Thursday of a bill lowering the minimum wage employers must pay some teen workers.
🇨🇴 Why so many Colombians fight in foreign wars
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, experts estimate that at least 3,000 Colombians have passed through the country, fighting on both sides, making them one of the largest foreign contingents. Others have turned up in Sudan’s civil war or have been recruited into Mexico’s violent gangs. Perhaps 10,000 Colombians are involved in foreign conflicts, estimates Mario Urueña-Sánchez, a security expert at Rosario University in Bogotá, the capital.
Most are former soldiers. Mr Urueña-Sánchez says they work within three broad categories. Security work—guarding compounds, convoys or energy installations for private firms—is the lowest paid. Doing the same for criminal organisations is more lucrative, but riskier. A third option is to fight abroad. That can mean enlisting in a foreign army or with private contractors.
Colombia’s veterans are in demand because they have experience from decades fighting rebel groups like the FARC. Close military co-operation with the United States means many are familiar with NATO-standard weapons and communications systems. And so even though Colombians cost less than Westerners, foreign forces can deploy them quickly, notes Elizabeth Dickinson of International Crisis Group, a think-tank based in Brussels.
The supply of available fighters is growing. Colombia boasts South America’s second-largest army after Brazil’s, with more than 260,000 active troops. It expanded sharply in the early 2000s, during the most intense phase of Colombia’s campaign against guerrilla groups, and that cohort is now reaching retirement. Soldiers typically leave service after two decades of service or upon turning 45. Officers passed over for promotion are forced out, too. The result is a steady stream of trained men leaving the armed forces at a relatively young age.
Unlike other countries with large veteran populations, such as the United States, Colombia has no comprehensive veterans’ policy to support the transition into civilian life, says Mr Urueña-Sánchez. Leaving the forces often means a sudden loss of housing, health care and institutional support. Few jobs reward military skills. Pensions are modest, typically around $400 a month. Foreign contracts promise several times that.
Politics has not helped. Relations between President Gustavo Petro and the armed forces have been shaky since he took office in 2022. Colombia’s first left-wing president came to power promising to reform the security state. The fact that he is a former guerrilla has long made military figures wary of his intentions. His drive for a negotiation-led “total peace” with Colombia’s armed groups has been a frustrating failure. More than 13,000 soldiers have left the armed forces voluntarily since he became president.
Late last year the government ratified the United Nations’ anti-mercenary convention, aligning Colombia with international norms that criminalise those who recruit, finance or train mercenaries. But this will probably have little impact. Most countries that hire mercenaries have not signed the convention. Much of the trade runs through private firms that avoid the mercenary label by describing combat roles as “security” or “training”.
Meanwhile, demand for mercenaries is unlikely to ease. Conflicts linked to extractive industries—from gold to rare earths and energy—are proliferating in weak states, creating demand for muscle.
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/02/04/why-so-many-colombians-fight-in-foreign-wars
📎 The Economist
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, experts estimate that at least 3,000 Colombians have passed through the country, fighting on both sides, making them one of the largest foreign contingents. Others have turned up in Sudan’s civil war or have been recruited into Mexico’s violent gangs. Perhaps 10,000 Colombians are involved in foreign conflicts, estimates Mario Urueña-Sánchez, a security expert at Rosario University in Bogotá, the capital.
Most are former soldiers. Mr Urueña-Sánchez says they work within three broad categories. Security work—guarding compounds, convoys or energy installations for private firms—is the lowest paid. Doing the same for criminal organisations is more lucrative, but riskier. A third option is to fight abroad. That can mean enlisting in a foreign army or with private contractors.
Colombia’s veterans are in demand because they have experience from decades fighting rebel groups like the FARC. Close military co-operation with the United States means many are familiar with NATO-standard weapons and communications systems. And so even though Colombians cost less than Westerners, foreign forces can deploy them quickly, notes Elizabeth Dickinson of International Crisis Group, a think-tank based in Brussels.
The supply of available fighters is growing. Colombia boasts South America’s second-largest army after Brazil’s, with more than 260,000 active troops. It expanded sharply in the early 2000s, during the most intense phase of Colombia’s campaign against guerrilla groups, and that cohort is now reaching retirement. Soldiers typically leave service after two decades of service or upon turning 45. Officers passed over for promotion are forced out, too. The result is a steady stream of trained men leaving the armed forces at a relatively young age.
Unlike other countries with large veteran populations, such as the United States, Colombia has no comprehensive veterans’ policy to support the transition into civilian life, says Mr Urueña-Sánchez. Leaving the forces often means a sudden loss of housing, health care and institutional support. Few jobs reward military skills. Pensions are modest, typically around $400 a month. Foreign contracts promise several times that.
Politics has not helped. Relations between President Gustavo Petro and the armed forces have been shaky since he took office in 2022. Colombia’s first left-wing president came to power promising to reform the security state. The fact that he is a former guerrilla has long made military figures wary of his intentions. His drive for a negotiation-led “total peace” with Colombia’s armed groups has been a frustrating failure. More than 13,000 soldiers have left the armed forces voluntarily since he became president.
Late last year the government ratified the United Nations’ anti-mercenary convention, aligning Colombia with international norms that criminalise those who recruit, finance or train mercenaries. But this will probably have little impact. Most countries that hire mercenaries have not signed the convention. Much of the trade runs through private firms that avoid the mercenary label by describing combat roles as “security” or “training”.
Meanwhile, demand for mercenaries is unlikely to ease. Conflicts linked to extractive industries—from gold to rare earths and energy—are proliferating in weak states, creating demand for muscle.
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/02/04/why-so-many-colombians-fight-in-foreign-wars
📎 The Economist
The Economist
Why so many Colombians fight in foreign wars
It has become a diplomatic problem for Colombia’s government
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📢 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum declared on Constitution Day that Mexico does not kneel, does not surrender and is not for sale:
"Mexico will not go back to being anyone's colony or protectorate.
And Mexico will never give up its natural resources.
That is why, with fortitude and faithful to our history, we say firmly:
Mexico does not yield, does not kneel, does not surrender, and is not for sale.
Long live the Constitution of 1917!"
📎 HuizarTony
"Mexico will not go back to being anyone's colony or protectorate.
And Mexico will never give up its natural resources.
That is why, with fortitude and faithful to our history, we say firmly:
Mexico does not yield, does not kneel, does not surrender, and is not for sale.
Long live the Constitution of 1917!"
📎 HuizarTony
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🇲🇽 🇨🇺 🇺🇸 Mexico faces weighty decision over Trump ultimatum on shipping oil to Cuba
The ultimatum presents a major decision point for Mexico, whose leader President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought closer ties to left-wing countries in Latin America but has so far managed to maintain a working relationship with Trump.
Mexico entered the Trump administration’s crosshairs after it became Cuba’s main source for oil after the U.S. captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and stopped shipments of Venezuelan oil to Havana.
In mid-January, Mexico temporarily halted oil shipments to Cuba, although it maintained that the decision was not made because of pressure from Trump.
Shortly afterward, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba.
This week, though, the CEO of Pemex, Mexico’s national oil company, Victor Rodriguez, said that Mexico would maintain exports to Cuba for as long as there was available product, according to Reuters. He also said that the company supplied oil and petroleum products to Cuba worth $496 million last year.
Resuming the shipments could be a major step backward in Mexico’s relations with Trump. Last year, Sheinbaum succeeded in reaching agreements to stave off tariffs threatened by Trump. Mexico is the top trading partner of the United States.
Now, though, the Trump administration is seeking new leverage to remove the communist regime in Cuba. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said the administration would “love” to see a regime change in Cuba.
“I think we would love to see the regime there change,” Rubio said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing last month.
And the situation in Cuba is becoming dire. A shortage of fuel in Cuba has led to blackouts across the country, including in the capital, Havana, and has also affected food prices and transportation. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on Thursday that the government would announce a plan next week to address the fuel shortages, Reuters reported.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-and-environment/4449531/mexico-faces-weighty-decision-trump-ultimatum-shipping-oil-cuba/
📎 Washington Examiner
The ultimatum presents a major decision point for Mexico, whose leader President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought closer ties to left-wing countries in Latin America but has so far managed to maintain a working relationship with Trump.
Mexico entered the Trump administration’s crosshairs after it became Cuba’s main source for oil after the U.S. captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and stopped shipments of Venezuelan oil to Havana.
In mid-January, Mexico temporarily halted oil shipments to Cuba, although it maintained that the decision was not made because of pressure from Trump.
Shortly afterward, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba.
This week, though, the CEO of Pemex, Mexico’s national oil company, Victor Rodriguez, said that Mexico would maintain exports to Cuba for as long as there was available product, according to Reuters. He also said that the company supplied oil and petroleum products to Cuba worth $496 million last year.
Resuming the shipments could be a major step backward in Mexico’s relations with Trump. Last year, Sheinbaum succeeded in reaching agreements to stave off tariffs threatened by Trump. Mexico is the top trading partner of the United States.
Now, though, the Trump administration is seeking new leverage to remove the communist regime in Cuba. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said the administration would “love” to see a regime change in Cuba.
“I think we would love to see the regime there change,” Rubio said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing last month.
And the situation in Cuba is becoming dire. A shortage of fuel in Cuba has led to blackouts across the country, including in the capital, Havana, and has also affected food prices and transportation. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on Thursday that the government would announce a plan next week to address the fuel shortages, Reuters reported.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-and-environment/4449531/mexico-faces-weighty-decision-trump-ultimatum-shipping-oil-cuba/
📎 Washington Examiner
Washington Examiner
Mexico faces weighty decision over Trump ultimatum on shipping oil to Cuba
President Donald Trump has continued to place pressure on Mexico to halt its crude exports to Cuba, threatening to impose tariffs on Mexico.
The policy comes as France’s fertility rate has dropped to around 1.56 children per woman, far below the 2.1 replacement level and the lowest in decades.
Births are at post-war lows, with deaths now beginning to outnumber births.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/french-government-letter-birth-rates-29-year-olds-zjkqmr6bc
📎 Europa
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