🇺🇸📉 America’s labor market just slammed the brakes.

ADP showed only 54k jobs in August, hiring plans hit record lows, and claims ticked up.

The only thing moving higher? Productivity.

Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000 last week, up from 229k. That’s the highest since June. The 4-week moving average ticked up to 231,000.

Continuing claims sit at 1.94 million. That keeps the insured unemployment rate at 1.3%.

Not a crisis, but it shows displaced workers are finding it harder to land new jobs.

That persistence is what turns slowdowns into something more damaging.

Add in JOLTS, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

It showed fewer openings and, for the first time since 2021, unemployed workers now outnumber available jobs.

The quit rate also fell. When quits drop, it means workers don’t see better opportunities. Confidence is slipping.

Friendly reminder that on Sep 9th Goldman Sachs is predicting the annual benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls will erase 550k to 950k jobs from the past year’s totals.

Recall last August, the Biden admin “revised away” 818k jobs that were never there. That revision was the trigger for the Sept 2024 jumbo 50bps rate cut panic by the Fed.

A similar move now would again clear the path for a 50bps cut.

🔗 Stock Market News

🇺🇦🇷🇺 In 3 weeks, the Russian Airforce launched 1 500 airstrikes between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, more than the previous monthly count.

Up to 40% of all Russian airstrikes are happening in and around Pokrovsk in preparation for a larger offensive which may soon begin before autumns rains turn the Donbas into a sludge.

I started on Tune 11th, counting May and until June 11th. From July 11th to August 11th, I mapped 1 400 airstrikes in 4 weeks, from August 11th to September 3, I mapped additional 1 500 airstrikes.

How much a day, how much a week ?

Every week, there have been 250 (May), 300-350 (June), 400-450 (July) and 500 airstrikes in August and September. The last 2 months, we have between 40 and 75 airstrikes a day between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka!

My airstrikes maps are following the same patern :

Red, then orange, then blue (July 11th - August 11th) and yellow, August 11th to September 3rd.

You can see a large displacement westwards. In total, I have counted 4 600 airstrikes in ~4 months.

We can see a large concentration of airstrikes south of Konstantinovka, near the New Donbass line, east of Dobropolye and in Belytskoe.

Now, we can say that after the successful counterattacks, Russia wants to enlarge its flanks and push to reach Konstantinovka and Myrnograd.

In blue, I marked the area of concentration of Ukrainian forces which are being pinned by airstrikes.

For now, Russia is failing to push against the strongly defended cities of Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. The battle for Pokrovsk now started one year ago !

Instead, they are now pushing on peripherical directions, in Lyman and in the south-east, west of Velikaya Novosyolka.

🔗 Clément Molin

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Russo-Ukrainian War observers noted large Russian armoured columns heading towards Bakhmut.

T-90M and T-72(B) Obr.22 tanks belonging to the 17th Tank Regiment (MUN 12315), 70th Division (18A), en route from Kherson to Bakhmut. The Divisions 24th,26th and 28th Motor Rifle Regiments are similarly on the move.

MT-LB, Excavators and trucks passing through Donetsk

🔗 Unit Observer