🌍 Africa: social unrest & armed violence

📎 José Luengo-Cabrera

📉 Dow drops 1,123 points (2.6%), making it the first 10-day losing streak since 1974

📎 BNO News

🇮🇱🇸🇾 Why is Israel expanding taking most of the remaining 30% of the Golan Heights and Mt Hermon?

And doubling the number of settlers?

🧵How Pres. Nixon wanted a comprehensive peace after the 1973 War & the return of the Golan:

https://fxtwitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1868866943291167126

💸 Luke Gromen on X:

"Today's downside in stocks, BTC, gold & spike in 10y UST ylds is likely nothing compared to what will happen if the Department of Government Efficiency unwisely tries to cut government spending before devaluing the USD...

Today's decline in risk & spike in UST yields would look like child's play by comparison"

📎 Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🪖 Simone Ledeen on X:

"America’s defense production is abysmally behind. We can’t even make enough artillery shells for Ukraine, let alone for a larger conflict. Outdated factories, slow rebuilds, and empty stockpiles. Our defense industrial base needs fixing, fast."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/12/weapons-production-munitions-shortfall-ukraine-democracy/680867/

📎 Simone Ledeen

🇨🇳/🇺🇸2024 China Military Power Report

The PLA Rocket Force now has 1300 MRBMs.

"Those missiles have a range that really only makes sense for hitting bases/targets in Japan (and maybe a few targets in the Philippines or India)."

📎 Tom Shugart

Also note: with 400 ICBMs China now has as many as the US’s 400 deployed Minuteman III’s - a situation I could scarcely have imagined just a few years ago when China’s inventory was in the dozens, not 100s.

(Note: the US does have additional spare MMIII’s + 50 unused silos.)

📎 Tom Shugart

🌏🇺🇸❌🇨🇳 Major US air bases in the Pacific within range of a MRBM with a 1,500mi range fired from inland China. There are approximately 35,000 active duty US military personnel serving on these bases (excluding Andersen).

📎 ripplebrain

🇺🇸❌🇨🇳 Key revelations from the DoD's China Military Power Report:

— By CMPR’s suspense date of “early 2024,” China already had over 600 operational nuclear warheads.
— All of China’s roughly 400 ICBMs can reach the continental United States (CONUS).
— PRC has the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal.
— 3 new silo fields add 320 silos for solid-propellant ICBMs.
— China working to double its DF-5 liquid-propellant ICBM force to likely 50 silos.
— September 2023, China test-launched two CSS-10 Mod 3/DF-31AG ICBMs from training silos in Western China.
— China simulated “Joint Firepower Strike Operations” against Taiwan, in part by live-firing PCH191 close-range ballistic missiles in its 2022 exercises, and drilling with the missile in its 2023 exercises.
— China’s four Type 093B Shang III guided-missile nuclear attack submarines, 3 of which may be operational by 2025, may have land-attack cruise missiles.
— China now has 5 types of ASBMs: DF-21D, DF-26, DF-17, DF-27, YJ-21.
— 5,000-8,000 km-range DF-27 IRBM/ICBM: The “long-range” DF-27 ballistic missile is deployed to the PLARF and likely has a HGV payload option as well as conventional land-attack, conventional antiship, and nuclear capabilities.”
— Potential targets include Guam, Alaska, and Hawaii.
Pentagon estimates China’s actual defense budget is $330-450 billion.
— China has world’s largest military force: 2.035 million active, 510,000 reserve, and 500,000 paramilitary
— China’s navy already has over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants.
— CMPR anticipates 395 PLAN battle force ships by 2025, including 65 submarines; and 435 by 2030, including 80 submarines.
— China’s air force has 51 Y-20A heavy lift transports, whose up to 2,400 nautical mile range may be extended by 16 Y-20U tankers.
— China stations 400 Marines at its Djibouti base.

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/18/2003615417/-1/-1/0/2024-CMPR-FACT-SHEET.PDF

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/18/2003615520/-1/-1/0/MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2024.PDF

📎 Andrew Erickson

🇺🇸🇮🇱 US Representative Jim McGovern on X:

"I went to the House Floor with a straightforward message to President Biden: Providing U.S. arms and military aid to the Netanyahu government for use in Gaza violates U.S. law.

It’s not too late to stand up for peace and human rights!"

📎 RepMcGovern

NATO published a list of 12 defence critical raw materials essential for the Allied defence industry. These materials are integral to the manufacture of advanced defence systems. Western armies cannot survive for long without a secure supply of raw materials.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_231765.htm

📎 Wachter_M

🇹🇷 Commenting today on events in Syria, President Erdogan of Turkey revealed his irredentist ambitions, declared that his country cannot confine itself to its current borders, and vowed to continue military involvement in other countries.

📎 Abdullah Bozkurt

👶 Update for the year ending Q3 2024 (TFRs):

USA 1.6245

Non-Hisp White 1.534
Non-Hisp Black 1.5335
Hispanic 1.975

What was already anticipated by some happened now. For the first time, the Black fertility rate dropped below the White fertility rate by a tiny margin.

📎 BirthGauge

🇷🇺🇸🇾🇱🇾 Exclusive: Russia transfers fighters, arms from Syria to Libya

Al-Araby Al-Jadeed has obtained information from monitoring and surveillance units of the new Syrian government confirming that Russia has transferred former Syrian soldiers and officers from the army of the deposed Bashar al-Assad regime to Libya.

The sources said the objective is to integrate them into Russian military bases located in areas controlled by the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar.

https://www.newarab.com/news/exclusive-russia-transfers-fighters-arms-syria-libya