🇮🇱❌🇹🇷 Syria Could Become a Turkish Protectorate, Limiting Israel's Freedom of Action

With a strategic interest in turning Syria into an anti-Kurdish bulwark, Turkey is seeking to take the place of Russia and Iran – including control of Syria's airspace

The invasion of Syria represents the second regional international agreement Israel has violated, following its takeover of the Philadelphi corridor and deployment of forces in Gaza – actions that Egypt claims breach both the Camp David Accords and the 2005 Movement and Access Agreement. The situations differ, however. With Egypt, Israel maintains ongoing negotiations.

In the past, it even allowed Egyptian forces to exceed Camp David limitations by strengthening their military presence in Sinai, including the use of air power, to combat Islamist organizations in the peninsula. In contrast, Israel has no dialogue with Syria and shows no intention of withdrawing from its newly seized territories in the foreseeable future.

Unlike Israel's virtually unlimited freedom of action in Gaza – backed by international and Arab legitimacy to act forcefully against Hamas, though not against civilians – its position regarding Syria is markedly different. While Al-Golani and his government weren't democratically elected, coming to power through military force with concerns about potential civil war, he has already garnered significant Arab and international credibility.

eyond receiving congratulations from major Arab states like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, concrete actions have followed. Turkey reopened its Damascus embassy on Saturday, with Qatar expected to follow suit on Sunday. European nations also appear ready to normalize relations with Syria after a 13-year break, particularly since some had already been considering reestablishing ties with Assad's regime.

The growing international support for Syria's new government may soon translate into pressure on Israel to withdraw from its newly occupied territories. Unlike Hamas, which faces broad international consensus against its role in Gaza's future governance, Syria's Ha'yat Tahrir al-Sham is increasingly viewed as a legitimate authority – despite still being listed as a terrorist organization and its leader carrying a $10 million bounty.

The Turkish-Syrian relationship's evolution could significantly impact Israel's operations in Syria. Beyond leading international efforts to remove IDF forces from the buffer zone, Turkey may determine Israel's aerial operational freedom in Syria. While Israel previously enjoyed nearly unrestricted access coordinated with Russian command at the Khmeimim air base, Russian forces have begun withdrawing.

Turkey may become the de facto controller of Syrian airspace and, in partnership with the Syrian government, could end Israel's operational freedom. While Israel's need for such freedom might diminish significantly with the departure of most Iranian forces and al-Golani's intention to prevent Hezbollah's activities in Syria, Israel remains skeptical of the new Syrian government's ability to block weapons transfers from Syria to Lebanon.

🔗 https://archive.ph/y46Lp

🇺🇸🗯💥🇮🇷☢️ — 🇺🇸 The Wall Street Journal | Trump Team Weighs Options, Including Airstrikes, to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program | Advisers to president-elect, concerned economic pressure isn’t enough to contain Tehran, consider military action | December 13, 2024:

"President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions.

The military-strike option against nuclear facilities is now under more serious review by some members of his transition team, who are weighing the fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad—Tehran’s ally—in Syria, the future of U.S. troops in the region, and Israel’s decimation of regime proxy militias Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran’s weakened regional position and recent revelations of Tehran’s burgeoning nuclear work have turbocharged sensitive internal discussions, transition officials said. All deliberation on the issue, however, remains in the early stages.

Trump has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent calls that he is concerned about an Iranian nuclear breakout on his watch, two people familiar with their conversations said, signaling he is looking for proposals to prevent that outcome. The president-elect wants plans that stop short of igniting a new war, particularly one that could pull in the U.S. military, as strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities have the potential put the U.S. and Iran on a collision course."

🗄 Archive

🔗 Source:

🇪🇺🤝🇸🇾 EU to discuss closure of Russian bases with Syrian rebels

Some European Union countries want the bloc to push the new leadership in Damascus to close Russian military bases in Syria, Kallas said Monday.

"Many foreign ministers took this up to say that, you know, it should be a condition for the new leadership that they also get rid of the Russian influence there because it is a base where they also conduct their activities toward Africa and southern neighbors," Kallas told journalists after a gathering of the EU's foreign ministers in Brussels. "So we will raise this issue with the leadership when we have the meetings."

The EU is reaching out to the rebel groups that ousted former dictator Bashar Assad and has laid out a number of conditions that need to be met before the bloc grants formal recognition to the incoming authorities or establishes formal diplomatic relations, Kallas said. The EU previously suspended all diplomatic relations with Assad's government.

Kallas said that the EU would raise the question of Russia's Tartus and Khmeimim bases in Syria during initial contacts with the rebel forces. Russia has drawn back some of its forces from those bases, but not fully withdrawn from Syria.

Earlier on Monday, the former Estonian prime minister said she was sending an EU diplomat to Syria to establish contact with rebel groups, which include Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The move comes after United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington was in direct contact with the group.

🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/syria-rebels-russia-bases-brussels-kaja-kallas-bashar-assad/

🇬🇧 Keir Starmer branded ‘dictator’ as he delays 2025 local elections

Labour is delaying some elections in a supposed bid to stop Reform UK's momentum.

Nigel Farage has torn into Prime Minister Keir Starmer after it emerged this morning some crucial local elections will now not be held next year.

Mr Farage blasted: “The two old parties’ century-long stranglehold on British politics is breaking and they are terrified.

“Their day of reckoning is fast approaching.”

Reform had been hungrily preparing for the next major electoral test, however local government reforms now mean they may not take place until 2027.

Jim McMahon, a senior Local Government minister, said councils that are being merged or abolished could “hold off” elections until the reforms are complete.

🔗 https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1989417/keir-starmer-dictator-nigel-farage

🇷🇺🇦🇫 Russia's parliament approves a bill that could pave the way for Moscow to lift its designation of the Afghan Taliban as a banned "terrorist" organisation

https://www.trtworld.com/asia/russia-moves-to-drop-afghanistans-taliban-from-terror-list-18244486

Elon Musk boosts Jeffrey Sachs interview by Tucker Carlson discussing the 1996 Clean Break memo and Greater Israel.

📎 AF Post

🇹🇷❌🇺🇸Senator Chris van Hollen warns Turkey on X:

"Attacks from Turkish-backed forces on our Syrian Kurdish partners undermine regional security & efforts to prevent an ISIS resurgence. Turkey must accept a ceasefire & demilitarized zone or we’ll move forward with bipartisan sanctions legislation."

📎 ChrisVanHollen

The MS-13 gang clique that was based in a San Fernando Valley high school murdered at least 10 people, including a 16-year-old student at the school

One victim had their heart cut out by machete

19 of the 22 defendants entered the country illegally

📎 skepticalifornia

"Have any of the drone sightings been accompanied with sightings of large rectangular black monolith?"

Ryder: "I probably have to think back to the words of a very wise prophet Obi Wan Kenobi who said, 'These aren't the drones you're looking for."

📎 CSPAN

🇨🇳🇲🇽🇺🇸How China is setting up shop in America's backyard

An increasingly close trade relationship is causing concern in Washington

On a recent Friday morning in Alianza Industrial Park, dust billowed up as diggers and lorries cleared land near a site for Chinese tyre maker ZC Rubber. A crane was poised to lift material for lithium and lead battery maker Leoch. A sign at its entrance welcomed another new firm in Mandarin and English.

Alianza is one of multiple sites in Mexico with a growing Chinese presence that seeks to take advantage of the country’s free trade agreement with the US and Canada, known as USMCA.

That has drawn the attention of politicians in Washington and Ottawa, just as president-elect Donald Trump threatened Mexico’s government with 25 per cent tariffs if it cannot stop the flow of migrants and drugs north.

FT analysis shows that over the past few years, Chinese companies have established themselves deeper into supply chains, developed stronger trade links and increased manufacturing in Mexico.

“From a purely economic perspective, significant Chinese investment activity in Mexico is going to raise alarm bells in DC,” says Connor Pfeiffer, director of congressional relations at US national security think-tank FDD Action.

“Mexico is right here, and they have a very different set of access to the US market than some of the other countries.”

https://ig.ft.com/china-mexico-tariffs/

📝 David Adler: "Yes, the FT just called Mexico "America's backyard." And yes, it was in service of a new Cold War narrative about the "alarming" efforts of the Chinese Communist Party to "exploit" the "backdoor" to the United States."

🇨🇳🇲🇽 Over the past 3 years, the number of Chinese companies in Mexican industrial sites has doubled.

The FT's latest digital report with a very useful graphic to help visualize where China's companies are investing.

📎 Ryan Berg

🇨🇳 China Executes Former Official in $412 Million Corruption Case

China executed a former official from Inner Mongolia over corruption charges totaling about 3 billion yuan ($412 million), a rare use of the death penalty for graft that comes with President Xi Jinping’s sweeping campaign to cleanse the Communist Party intensifying.

It is rare for Chinese officials to receive the death penalty for corruption charges. More frequently they get a two-year reprieve from execution, with their sentence commuted to life imprisonment for good behavior.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/china-executes-former-official-in-412-million-corruption-case

https://archive.ph/lv0Hr

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Lawsuit accuses State Department of creating loopholes for Israel on military aid and human rights

WASHINGTON (AP) — The State Department has carved out exceptions for close ally Israel that block a U.S. law restricting foreign military support over human rights abuses, a lawsuit from a group of Palestinians in Gaza and American relatives asserted Tuesday.

Former State Department officials and crafters of the 1997 Leahy law were among those advising and backing the lawsuit.

The lawsuit details the barriers that it accuses the State Department of creating on Israel’s behalf to skirt enforcement and asks courts to intervene. That is after campus protests and moves by some lawmakers failed in their goal of limiting U.S. military support to Israel over civilian deaths in Gaza during the war with Hamas.

📝 The Leahy Laws or Leahy amendments are U.S. human rights laws that prohibit the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense from providing military assistance to foreign security force units that violate human rights with impunity.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-military-aid-gaza-us-biden-leahy-law-3fe632e1ef524656b7a201bc4c1651a2