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USDCAD is back to a +6 strong buy on the EdgeFinder. The trend projection reads oppositely of the 10 year seasonality average. CAD is also one of the most shorted assets by institutions who are leaning toward a bullish USD.

Tomorrow's NFP and unemployment rates come out tomorrow for the US and Canada. Investors are expecting a higher UE rate for both countries. If both come in higher than expected, it could cause lots of volatility going into the next week.

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It appears that retail is mostly long USD with the exception of USDCAD. As for commodities, the crowd is split with strong stances between gold and oil. Because of the recent downturn, traders could be looking to find a reversal on USOil, in which case could be the right move due to COT activity.

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USOil remains the top most bought asset on the Smart Money Tracker as it ties with gold. Commodities are hot for the time being likely due to economic uncertainty, banking collapses and mixed Fed interpretations. Canada remains one of the most shorted assets.

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EURJPY is still one of the EdgeFinder's top buy ratings for the week. At +6, the euro beats the yen in almost every category except inflation and unemployment. The Euro-area likely struggles more with inflation due to a more expansive economy than Japan who's central bank is trying to stimulate growth rather than focus on the yen's strength.

More promising news came from COT this week which showed an increase in long positions in the euro. Meanwhile, retail is net short this pair as it looks to be a reversal attempt. Although price is pulling back, smart money does not want to let go of the euro, so price is likely going to attempt a bounce.

Gold on the rise today after a stark sell off in Friday's session. COT showed a confident level in growth in long positions on the Smart Money Tracker after the regionals rebounded from the banking crisis. What looked to be a bearish case for the metal at first is now looking more so like a dip-buying opportunity.

Gold is now the most heavily bought asset by institutions. The metal broke above the $2020s on the 4H and 1D timeframe which suggests bullish pressure going into CPI. Traders could be looking for a retest on the highs of $2060.

Congrats to the fellow gold bulls! Beautiful run up today off of support. Trailing stops to breakeven.

BUY XAUUSD UPDATE (Entered 3 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 2007.22 (Floating +2165.00 pips)
🚫 Stop: 2009.09 (Trailed: +187.00 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A

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GBPJPY is still a +5 on the EdgeFinder as we go into a BOE bank rate decision. Forecasts have put down another expected hike of 25 basis points on Thursday in hopes of driving down the double digit inflation crippling the pound's strength.

Other than inflation and unemployment, GBP has the advantage with a hawkish BOE and expanding economy. The two trend readings point toward more momentum to the upside as the 10-year average seasonality shows historical gains.

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The crowd looks heavily biased towards the euro and one pound cross this week. To the short side, it appears that retail is looking to yen strength as GBPJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY and AUDJPY are at the bottom of the list. Commodities are mixed; oil is mostly long while the gold market is only 40% long.

Here's a new feature on the Smart Money Tracker page of the EdgeFinder which shows week-to-week activity from institutions. So, you will not only see this week's change in long or short contracts for the current week, but you can also see what they are up to over time. The yellow bars show a net change in long and short contracts to find the net bias. For example, this week's currency pair bias for gold is 13%, or net long of 13%.

USD/CAD Analysis
USDCAD bounces from yesterday’s lows. The pair is on the rise as the dollar index holds on to its gains from yesterday and pushes higher. Investors are looking at a stronger dollar going into tomorrow's CPI news. UC came down to a double bottom on the 1D timeframe as price rejected the lows on yesterday's candle.

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📊 BMO Capital Markets Team
📊 BNP Paribas Team

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Gold Analysis
Price stays in the $2020s as it retraced from resistance in the $2030s. The metal looks to be caught between two levels of supply and demand for the time being, and this might continue through Wednesday’s CPI. The metal could go either way depending on the the news, so key levels are $2060 and $1970s.

🚨 NEW TRADE SIGNAL! XAUUSD

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🔥 We Caught a HUGE Move on XAUUSD!
Nick’s XAUUSD trade that he shared with VIP members made a HUGE move following CPI this morning.

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