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CAD/JPY Analysis
Canada has an important inflation report this Wednesday and is expecting a hefty rise from last month’s CPI. CADJPY fell through a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe but was able to find support in the 104s where there was a previous bottom. Price did bounce from this level, but it is hard to tell what direction it will stay in. Risk off currencies have been struggling but CAD is too. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it might be bearish for the pair.

AUD/CAD Analysis
If you are looking to go long against a CAD pair, this one might be a good trade. If we get a combination of Canada’s inflation spike and the Australia’s beat in employment numbers, we could see more upside. Price is already moving that way, but it still has yet to hit the obvious resistance around the falling trend line on the 1D timeframe. Just below is the 50 DMA for support and a previous top.

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3 Strongest Pairs to Buy This Week
As we wait for major economic news releases this week (such as monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia tonight at 7:30 pm ET, United States Producer Price Index numbers tomorrow at 8:30 am ET, and Consumer Price Index updates from the UK on Wednesday at 2 am ET), it can be helpful to consider what pairs the Edgefinder already signals to be particularly worth watching. With this in mind, here are the EdgeFinder’s current 3 strongest pairs to buy this week, listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts. Additional comments on fundamentals and technical analysis will also be provided.

https://a1trading.com/3-strongest-pairs-to-buy-this-week/

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USD/CAD Analysis
USDCAD is the strongest buy rating on the Edgefinder right now. However, price is trending harshly against its seasonal performance. Retail is also majority long on this pair which is a sign of bearishness. If we look at COT reports, institutions are picking up more and more of USD while staying mostly long. On the other hand, CAD is nearly 60% short from COT with minimal change in long positions. USD’s inflation is higher than CAD’s and both currencies have seen a decline in CPI this month. The trend reader forecasts this pair to continue to move lower for the next seven trading days. Risk-off pairs are not doing very well right now and it might be because of the recent inflation forecast which analysts say will fall to the target level of 2%. CAD may still have the upper hand due to this reasoning.

Surprising PPI Numbers Today
This morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the latest figures for a key measure of inflation in the United States. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks changes in the prices of goods and services sold by producers, was expected to increase by 0.4% month-over-month in October; instead, it only rose by a mild 0.2%. Likewise, Core PPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), was forecast to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, but remained static, changing exactly 0% instead. These surprising PPI numbers today offer yet another instance of American inflation dropping following the recent low CPI report, building a bearish case for USD and a bullish one for stock market indices as the need for a hawkish Fed ostensibly lessens. However, I am personally skeptical of this development as many underlying economic fundamentals have not changed, as we will discuss below.

https://a1trading.com/surprising-ppi-numbers-today/

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CADJPY comes down to support on the 1D timeframe and begins to bounce. Canada just announced their new CPI numbers which came in lower than the expected forecast (0.7% instead of 0.8%). This number is still higher than the previous month on 0.1% so inflation did in fact increase by 0.6%. Investors might be happy that it came in at a slower pace than expected which suggests that interest rates are having more impact on the currency. Price could come up to test the falling trend line before making another move.

SPX500 came up to nearly test the 200 DMA, but price retraced before it had the chance. Stocks have been hovering around the $3990s resistance level for almost 4 trading sessions now which suggests some hesitation on the risk on side. Retail sales, however, did just come in higher than expected which is a heavy factor for USD and equities. We could end up seeing higher gains at the bell or another test lower at $3940.

Let's take a look at CAD-Swiss on the retail sentiment page of the Edgefinder. 97% of traders are long this pair which goes strictly against its overall price trend. If we know anything about retail traders, they are usually wrong due to the fact that they hop on potential 'discounted' prices too quickly. In this scenario, retail might actually be right in the short term. The pair has been constantly forming lower lows on the 1D timeframe, but price is beginning to bounce again. We could see the pair make a lower high before retracing back to the downside, especially now that CAD is starting to look bullish after CPI. Price may come back up to the 0.71800s before starting another move.