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Big Bank of Canada Upset
Big Bank of Canada Upset
There was a big Bank of Canada upset this morning: at 10 am Eastern Time, the Bank of Canada (BoC) issued their latest Monetary Policy Report and announced their new Overnight Rate, a key interest rate. While another 75 basis point rate hike had been forecast, the hike was instead a mere 50 basis points, a shocking move away from the BoC hawkishness displayed earlier this year. This is a bearish development for the Canadian Dollar and appears to mark a distinct tonal shift from the BoC as recession concerns mount for the recently aggressive central bank. Though CAD’s status as a commodity currency may permit rising oil prices to temper any subsequent selloffs, the case for CAD bearishness in terms of fundamentals is now more compelling in light of the BoC’s now-lukewarm tightening efforts.

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US10Y Analysis
US 10 Year bonds are having the worst drop in the last three days than it has been for some time. Analysts are saying that there isn't anything certain yet, but they are calling it a "code orange" warning meaning that things could shift to a red alert if things start looking worse. Fears of another recession stand at the forefront of investors' minds right now and people are worried that it will only get worse. The Edgfinder has bonds ranked at a strong buy, but we should be cautious of the increasing bearish sentiment.

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What Will the Fed Do?
This week has been fascinating for financial markets: stock markets have performed quite well despite global interest rate hikes and some disappointing tech earnings in the US, while the US Dollar Index continued to decline from late September’s highs. These movements are perhaps only more surprising considering that key data on the US economy was released both yesterday and today, and the chances of it further emboldening the Fed are plausible. With the Federal Reserve scheduled to adjust the Federal Funds Rate (a key interest rate in the US) on Wednesday next week, and full-blown recession still looming in the minds of investors, it is worth unpacking this fresh data in order to ask: what will the Fed do?

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EUR/USD Analysis
EU dropped again today onto support around the 50 DMA and a previous top. The pair wedged back under a falling trend line and isn't showing any signs of rejection on this level. If price breaks back under support, then we might be able to see further downside towards more lows. Additional support sits under around 0.97117.

AUD/USD Analysis
AU is falling as well due to the lack of bullishness for risk on pairs. AUD just raised their interest rate another 25 basis points, but it doesn't seem to be doing much for the buck. Price is still on support so we may see a bounce back to the highs from a few trading sessions ago, but there is no sign of that happening yet according to price action.

SPX500 Analysis
Markets are very mixed right now as investors are calling different ranges of sentiment. Some think that the market is bottoming, and others do not. The recent uptrend still looks promising after Friday's performance, but there is still a lot of head wind in the way. A couple of levels of heavy resistance will have to break before sentiment starts looking clearer to the upside.

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