The Edgefinder’s smartmoney tracker is helping us see the biggest positions on all currencies in forex. Right now, the USD is 78% while JPY is 78% short on the institutional side. That means that USDJPY is one of the biggest bullish pairs right now as the yen is the most shorted currency and the dollar is the most longed. This indicator is mainly why I'm keeping my UJ long going because it seems like the pair will keep trending upward until we see otherwise.

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Best Currency to Short
There is a near endless cycle of global economic news worth focusing on. Recent noteworthy stories include the complete abandonment of UK PM Truss’ ill-timed signature tax cuts, as well as the US Dollar Index briefly falling during better-than-expected US corporate earnings. Just this morning, both UK and Canadian CPI data came in hotter than what was forecast. However, one currency continues to stand out as particularly worth watching, despite few policy updates or other fundamental catalysts this week: the Japanese Yen. With Japan’s economy in a comfortable state of low unemployment and higher consumer spending, yet little dangerous overheating, the Bank of Japan continues its ultraloose monetary policy, voluntarily sacrificing JPY’s forex value for economic prosperity. With the Yen thus continuing its fall to multidecade lows, this bearish momentum shows no signs of stopping, potentially making JPY the best currency to short.

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USD Falling on the Philly Fed News
This morning, at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released an unfortunate batch of news for the US economy. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, otherwise known as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which surveys over 200 Philadelphia manufacturers on a monthly basis, indicated worsening business conditions this month. While a score of -5 was anticipated, and would have already been a pessimistic indication, the real number was a bleaker -8.7. Considering that American manufacturing is a crucial component of US exports, these disappointing conditions ostensibly highlight the toll that a strong US Dollar is taking on trade, which carries negative implications for US GDP growth, or the lack thereof. With USD falling on the Philly Fed News today, monetary tightening-induced recession fears continue to haunt financial markets.

https://a1trading.com/usd-falling-on-the-philly-fed-news/

This might be our biggest trade of the year…

🤩 FLOATING +862 PIPS!

A1 Trading analyst, Frank, took a trade back on September 22nd that is continuing to FLY! Here was his reasoning he shared for taking this trade: “After a heavy dip, it looks like we have some potential for a discount on UJ to the upside. Taking a short on EU after it makes new lows and bounces back hard. The pair is showing signs of weakness after moving higher, so I'm going to stay long USD and try to ride more downside on EU.”

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USDJPY Analysis
UJ took a big fall this morning as US treasury bonds saw the hardest sell off in history. Price came down to support and bounced, but it is hard to tell whether the move is over or not. We might have to wait for further confirmation on the next 4H candle to tell where this pair might be headed.

SPX500 Analysis
We are starting to see some signs that the stock market might have bottomed as price comes up to test the falling trend line shortly after retracing from it. We should still look out for a false run to the upside as Friday's are usually good days for equities. However, if the index can break higher above this level, it would be a bullish sign.

EURUSD Analysis
EURUSD is moving with US stocks, but forecasts still have the pair ranging to the downside for the next 7 trading days. We're seeing some rejection from the lows on a couple candles on the 1D timeframe which suggest the price is trying to move higher. Again, we should be mindful of a temporary rally and can expect it likely that price will continue to the downside. It's just a matter of further confirmation until we can decide that long trades should be considered.

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Warning: PMI on Monday
From the hours of 3:15 to 9:45 am Eastern Time on Monday morning, there may be several fundamental catalysts that cause great volatility across the forex market. This prompts us to issue a warning: PMI on Monday. France and Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States will all be releasing the latest monthly results of their respective Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Flash Services PMI, within just hours of each other. These indices, which are composed by surveying purchasing managers across the manufacturing and services industries, are key indicators of economic expansion and contraction, which offers traders a sneak peek at each country’s evolving GDP.

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