SPX500 Analysis
After their biggest weekly decline in months, the stock market is not looking good. Bond yields jumped and sellers are stepping back in on equities. The Fed hold a strong stance on curbing inflation at the cost of further economic decline. Investors expect rates to be higher on Wednesday and reassurance from the Fed that monetary policy wonβt change. Price broke under key support and is now on its way to a bottom around the $3600s. We can probably expect at least another test here, if not, another break beneath it.
After their biggest weekly decline in months, the stock market is not looking good. Bond yields jumped and sellers are stepping back in on equities. The Fed hold a strong stance on curbing inflation at the cost of further economic decline. Investors expect rates to be higher on Wednesday and reassurance from the Fed that monetary policy wonβt change. Price broke under key support and is now on its way to a bottom around the $3600s. We can probably expect at least another test here, if not, another break beneath it.
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Trader and Author, Courtney Smith, has been involved in the trading world for over 50 years. Courtney managed the number one global macro hedge fund and the number one growth mutual fund, was the number one gold and bond market timer, and much more! In today's episode, Courtney and Nick talk all things technique. Listen to find out what techniques have led to Courtney's impressive success!
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https://a1trading.com/podcast/
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2 Paths for Aussie Bears
At 9:30 pm Eastern Time tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be publishing their latest round of monetary policy meeting minutes. While there is a chance that their intentions could come across as more hawkish than expected, they currently have little reason to be. Despite relatively low unemployment at 3.5%, steady GDP growth, and annual inflation having increased by a full percentage point to 6.1%, the Australian economy has not overheated in a manner comparable to that of other countries. @everyone
https://a1trading.com/2-paths-for-aussie-bears/
At 9:30 pm Eastern Time tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be publishing their latest round of monetary policy meeting minutes. While there is a chance that their intentions could come across as more hawkish than expected, they currently have little reason to be. Despite relatively low unemployment at 3.5%, steady GDP growth, and annual inflation having increased by a full percentage point to 6.1%, the Australian economy has not overheated in a manner comparable to that of other countries. @everyone
https://a1trading.com/2-paths-for-aussie-bears/
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LIVE Forex Trading: USDCAD, NZDUSD, EURUSD (Ft. Trader Jake)
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LIVE Forex Trading: USDCAD, NZDUSD, EURUSD (Ft. Trader Jake)
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USDJPY continues to run higher as retail investors cannot catch on to the trend. It's important to look at COT sentiment as well as the overall trend to find where the money is actually flowing. Retail has been majority short for over a month, but price keeps going higher due to the Fed's policy and their expected rate hike of 75 bp on Wednesday. Because this scanner is trend-heavy, it's good for swing traders who are looking to ride the trade for a while. And it is basically saying to not fight the dollar right now. This could last for weeks, months, etc. It has been consistently going against retail and going with seasonality. So, until this scanner says otherwise, it is probably a good idea to consider the USD as a strong house while the score is reading a buy.
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Users can now see where an asset will likely move according to past price action. The price forecast captures the overall trend and projects it 7 days into the future. That projected trend line is also surrounded by a higher and lower deviation to encompass the expected area and direction of future price movement. Swing traders will be able to get an idea of how to trade a pair, commodity or index by simply looking at this chart.
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LIVE Forex Trading: USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD (Ft. FxBigDog)
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LIVE Forex Trading: USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD (Ft. FxBigDog)
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EURUSD Analysis
EURUSD is coming down to test a key bottom level of support on the 1D timeframe. After retracing off the 50 DMA in the 1.01000s, price is working its way down to the lows of 0.98000s. The federal funds rate is expected to hit 3.25%, 0.75% higher than in July. A second test at this bottom could result in a potential break in support followed by further lows.
EURUSD is coming down to test a key bottom level of support on the 1D timeframe. After retracing off the 50 DMA in the 1.01000s, price is working its way down to the lows of 0.98000s. The federal funds rate is expected to hit 3.25%, 0.75% higher than in July. A second test at this bottom could result in a potential break in support followed by further lows.
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SPX500 Analysis
What we often see on rate hike days is a bullish stock market. For a short period of time, equities climb higher before another wave of sell-off occurs in the market. So, today could be a long opportunity as price action is showing signs of upside on the 1D timeframe. But should the new rate become 3.25%, the rally will probably die by Thursday.
What we often see on rate hike days is a bullish stock market. For a short period of time, equities climb higher before another wave of sell-off occurs in the market. So, today could be a long opportunity as price action is showing signs of upside on the 1D timeframe. But should the new rate become 3.25%, the rally will probably die by Thursday.
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Nick's USDJPY Trade π€©
Nick took a trade on USDJPY last Friday that has been running up smoothly!
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Nick took a trade on USDJPY last Friday that has been running up smoothly!
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Shocking CAD Inflation News
Statistics Canada released a surprising new batch of inflation data this morning: month-over-month CPI failed to meet market forecasts, declining by 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.1%. Rather than being an outlier, the other measurements of CPI mostly followed suit, as both year-over-year Trimmed CPI and Median CPI likewise failed to meet expectations. Trimmed CPIβs poor performance, clocking in at a 5.2% increase year-over-year instead of the expected 5.5%, could be interpreted as particularly significant in that it excludes the 40% most volatile prices. This may theoretically set CAD fundamentals apart from USD, in that the Federal Reserve has incentive to keep hiking interest rates due to stubborn core inflation, while the Bank of Canada no longer does. Regardless of your overall Canadian Dollar bias, this is shocking CAD inflation news.
https://a1trading.com/shocking-cad-inflation-news/
Statistics Canada released a surprising new batch of inflation data this morning: month-over-month CPI failed to meet market forecasts, declining by 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.1%. Rather than being an outlier, the other measurements of CPI mostly followed suit, as both year-over-year Trimmed CPI and Median CPI likewise failed to meet expectations. Trimmed CPIβs poor performance, clocking in at a 5.2% increase year-over-year instead of the expected 5.5%, could be interpreted as particularly significant in that it excludes the 40% most volatile prices. This may theoretically set CAD fundamentals apart from USD, in that the Federal Reserve has incentive to keep hiking interest rates due to stubborn core inflation, while the Bank of Canada no longer does. Regardless of your overall Canadian Dollar bias, this is shocking CAD inflation news.
https://a1trading.com/shocking-cad-inflation-news/
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SMART MONEY UPDATE: Here's What Pro Traders are Buying and Selling NOW...
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Gold turned into a sell on the Edgefinder as the USD takes the reigns on almost all the categories. According to COT, retail and seasonality, things aren't looking very bullish for the metal. Price also crossed below key support on the 1D timeframe which was under $1680. The next key level of support would be in the $1400s. Because of the dollar's strength, the downtrend will probably continue for some time.
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