SPX500 Analysis
SPX500 rises premarket after a decent last week of earnings and job growth. Price is nearing resistance at a double top on the 1D timeframe which could uphold as strong supply. That level is also right below the 61.8% fib retracement level which could serve as another tough level to break above.

Latest Jobs Data Could Make Recession Worse
Last Friday, the US reported NFP numbers that came out much stronger than expected. This event further green-lit the Fed's path to send rates higher and topple inflation. Usually, jobs growth is good for the economy and the stock market. But, here is why it could also make the recession worse.

https://a1trading.com/latest-jobs-data-could-make-recession-worse/

The price forecast on the Edgefinder projects an upward trend on gold's price chart for the next 7 days. Within that range are three trend lines that are supposed to generalize the trend's movement. Price is expected to fall within $1786 and $1843 by the end of the seven day period. The trend also falls well above the average price of $1771 from the past 14 days which is a good sign for gold. Price is starting to retest a heavy resistance level at $1787 which may result in a break if stocks slide as well.

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Could the US Senate's New Bill Reduce Inflation?
On Sunday, August 7th, the US Senate narrowly passed a budget reconciliation bill, coined the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’, by a vote of 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking a tie. It primarily focuses on three goals: combatting climate change, expanding health insurance coverage, and reforming the tax code to reduce deficit spending. A heavily pared down incarnation of the discarded Build Back Better Act, it is expected to pass in the House of Representatives by the end of this week before being signed into effect by President Biden.

https://a1trading.com/could-the-us-senates-new-bill-reduce-inflation/

Edgefinder Forecast
JP225 has the strongest buy rating on the Edgefinder today. Institutions are buying up long contracts in the Japanese stock market while retail is predominately short. Price is up near a triple top on the 1D, while lower highs mark signs of retracement. Although the scanner is giving the index an extremely bullish reading, price could still come back down to test the supportive trend line. The current price action is also looking more like a wedge pattern on this timeframe. Seasonality this month is unusually better than historical trends as price is up overall this month.

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Trade These Pairs Before CPI
Consumer Price Index numbers will come out tomorrow with the anticipation of a slowdown in inflation. This index takes all goods and services purchased by consumers and measures their prices against the previous month. Investors will get an idea of whether or not the Fed is staying the course, too aggressive or too loose. Here's why you should trade these pairs before tomorrow.

https://a1trading.com/trade-these-pairs-before-cpi/

GBP/USD Analysis
After a handful events in the UK, the value of the pound is very much up in the air. Uncertainty clouds investors' grim outlook on the economy and currency. British GDP numbers are expected to come out lower and even negative, which compared to last month, was 0.50%. This will also give us an indication of whether or not the BoE will keep hiking as much as they have, or if they'll take their foot off the pedal for a while.

Should lower GDP numbers come in for GBP, we can expect the pair to turn lower. On the 1D timeframe, price is showing another day of rejection from the highs of the day. Price may continue lower to test the falling trend line. We can see a move as low as the bottom at 1.17631.

USDJPY Analysis
UJ has been a volatile and unpredictable pair for the most part this year. Long term, we might be able to expect a stronger USD over the yen although both currencies are considered risk-off. Latest NFP numbers suggest that the Fed can keep hiking rates. And tomorrow's CPI might further indicate that argument's validity.

The pair has not really moved this week but has stayed just above a previous resistance level around 134.597. A move down could lead price to hit the rising trend line on the 1D timeframe, while an upward surge could take the pair all the way to the highs of 138.700s.

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US inflation numbers are being released shortly. Lookout for some major moves in the market! Want to trade the news with us? Join here:
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Free Edgefinder Forecast! SPX500
SPX500 currently has a score of +6, or a Strong Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that institutions are 33.6% Long and 66.4% Short. This category receives a COT score of -1.

Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.

Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 4, 7, and 14 moving average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.

For valuation, we have a score of -1. We compare current PE ratios to Fwd PE, EPS for the past 5 years and next 5 years, Sales for the past 5 years, as well as float short positions. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. The index saw higher GDP growth, inflation was lower than the previous report, unemployment was lower this month, and interest rates are higher than the last time.

GBPUSD Analysis
GU rises with US equities as investors wait for GDP numbers to come out tomorrow. The pair is coming up near resistance around 1.22961. If GDP comes in lower than last month, investors might think that BoE will have to reduce hawkishness to focus on economic growth. This would likely take the pound lower, although a strong US stock market is carrying GU with it

Gold Analysis
Gold is slowly working its way back to the $1800s after breaking a significant resistance level on the 1D timeframe. The metal is rising due to a weakening dollar after investors weigh NFP and inflation. The close above $1787 was a big step for the metal which indicates that price could eventually come up to test the $1860s again.