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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a widening trade deficit mean?
What does a widening trade deficit mean?
Anonymous Quiz
15%
Stronger GDP
14%
Declining inflation
17%
Falling employment
54%
More imports and exports
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USD/CAD – Watching the Retest
USD/CAD broke above resistance but is still hovering near the 50% retracement level—giving bulls a chance to confirm direction. A break and hold above 1.38000 could give room to the upside. However holding below resistance could make it difficult for bulls to take charge.
This morning, the Canadian dollar slipped after data showed the economy unexpectedly lost 40,800 jobs in July. The unemployment rate held at 6.9%, slightly better than expectations for a rise to 7.0%.
Still, the weak employment print adds pressure on the Bank of Canada, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts in the coming months.
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USD/CAD broke above resistance but is still hovering near the 50% retracement level—giving bulls a chance to confirm direction. A break and hold above 1.38000 could give room to the upside. However holding below resistance could make it difficult for bulls to take charge.
This morning, the Canadian dollar slipped after data showed the economy unexpectedly lost 40,800 jobs in July. The unemployment rate held at 6.9%, slightly better than expectations for a rise to 7.0%.
Still, the weak employment print adds pressure on the Bank of Canada, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts in the coming months.
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USD/CHF – Holding the Line
USD/CHF is holding firm at the 0.80500 support level. A break and retest above could suggest further upside, while a break and retest below might open the door to continued dollar weakness.
It’s been a quiet session in FX, with the dollar attempting to stabilize after last week’s losses.
On the Swiss side, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars will now fall under a customs code subject to tariffs—contrary to industry expectations.
This move could weigh on Switzerland, the world’s largest gold-refining hub, as gold is one of its top exports to the U.S.
USD/CHF is holding firm at the 0.80500 support level. A break and retest above could suggest further upside, while a break and retest below might open the door to continued dollar weakness.
It’s been a quiet session in FX, with the dollar attempting to stabilize after last week’s losses.
On the Swiss side, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars will now fall under a customs code subject to tariffs—contrary to industry expectations.
This move could weigh on Switzerland, the world’s largest gold-refining hub, as gold is one of its top exports to the U.S.
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Canada's Economic Heatmap
Canada’s latest labor report came in soft, adding weight to expectations of further easing from the Bank of Canada.
- July employment fell by 40,800 jobs — a surprise contraction that contrasts with expectations for a modest increase.
- The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.9%, slightly better than the 7.0% forecast, but still at multi-month highs.
Together, these figures highlight a cooling labor market — a key concern for policymakers. Wage growth and participation remain stagnant, and the jobs miss reinforces the case that the economy is struggling to gain momentum post-hikes.
With inflation relatively under control, the Bank of Canada may be more comfortable pulling the trigger on additional rate cuts in the coming months. Markets are already pricing in a strong probability of easing, and upcoming data will be crucial in confirming that path.
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Canada’s latest labor report came in soft, adding weight to expectations of further easing from the Bank of Canada.
- July employment fell by 40,800 jobs — a surprise contraction that contrasts with expectations for a modest increase.
- The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.9%, slightly better than the 7.0% forecast, but still at multi-month highs.
Together, these figures highlight a cooling labor market — a key concern for policymakers. Wage growth and participation remain stagnant, and the jobs miss reinforces the case that the economy is struggling to gain momentum post-hikes.
With inflation relatively under control, the Bank of Canada may be more comfortable pulling the trigger on additional rate cuts in the coming months. Markets are already pricing in a strong probability of easing, and upcoming data will be crucial in confirming that path.
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
USD/CHF – Holding the Line USD/CHF is holding firm at the 0.80500 support level. A break and retest above could suggest further upside, while a break and retest below might open the door to continued dollar weakness. It’s been a quiet session in FX, with…
The White House claims misinformation on Gold tariffs. More details to come in the future.
For now... Gold experiences a slight relief
For now... Gold experiences a slight relief
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a negative real interest rate mean?
What does a negative real interest rate mean?
Anonymous Quiz
34%
Rates are below 0%
38%
Inflation is higher than nominal rates
6%
Bond yields are rising
22%
Deflation is occurring
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GOLD – Stuck in the Range
Gold has been trading in a defined range since April. Within that range, price broke below an upward trendline, retested it, and has since stayed underneath — offering no clear directional bias for now.
On the geopolitical front, Trump announced he will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine — a move that could avert further U.S. sanctions on Moscow.
Losses may be limited by ongoing trade concerns and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Last Thursday, higher U.S. tariffs on imports from several countries took effect, leaving some trade partners scrambling for better terms.
This week, traders will watch key data points: CPI, PPI, and retail sales data closely for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Markets are also awaiting clarification from the White House on its tariff stance toward gold bars, after a recent U.S. government ruling said they’d be subject to duties.
Gold has been trading in a defined range since April. Within that range, price broke below an upward trendline, retested it, and has since stayed underneath — offering no clear directional bias for now.
On the geopolitical front, Trump announced he will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine — a move that could avert further U.S. sanctions on Moscow.
Losses may be limited by ongoing trade concerns and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Last Thursday, higher U.S. tariffs on imports from several countries took effect, leaving some trade partners scrambling for better terms.
This week, traders will watch key data points: CPI, PPI, and retail sales data closely for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Markets are also awaiting clarification from the White House on its tariff stance toward gold bars, after a recent U.S. government ruling said they’d be subject to duties.
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USD/JPY – Watching the Pullback
USD/JPY briefly broke above the key 149 level last week, but the move faded after softer U.S. labor data. Since then, price has held up around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with buyers stepping back in and pushing it higher.
The dollar has been under pressure across the board since the NFP miss, as weaker jobs data triggered a dovish shift in Fed expectations. Markets are now pricing in around 58 bps of easing by year-end, up from 35 bps before the jobs report. If incoming data stays soft, Fed Chair Powell may open the door for a September cut.
The next key catalyst is tomorrow’s CPI release. Given recent Fed comments, it would likely take very hot inflation data—and another strong NFP in September—to derail the growing odds of a cut.
On the Yen side, gains came largely from Dollar losses. For more JPY strength, markets would need either continued weak U.S. data, stronger Japanese inflation (to justify additional BoJ hikes), or signs of more fiscal stimulus in Japan.
USD/JPY briefly broke above the key 149 level last week, but the move faded after softer U.S. labor data. Since then, price has held up around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with buyers stepping back in and pushing it higher.
The dollar has been under pressure across the board since the NFP miss, as weaker jobs data triggered a dovish shift in Fed expectations. Markets are now pricing in around 58 bps of easing by year-end, up from 35 bps before the jobs report. If incoming data stays soft, Fed Chair Powell may open the door for a September cut.
The next key catalyst is tomorrow’s CPI release. Given recent Fed comments, it would likely take very hot inflation data—and another strong NFP in September—to derail the growing odds of a cut.
On the Yen side, gains came largely from Dollar losses. For more JPY strength, markets would need either continued weak U.S. data, stronger Japanese inflation (to justify additional BoJ hikes), or signs of more fiscal stimulus in Japan.
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EdgeFinder's COT Data History
Latest COT data shows a notable drop in USD long contracts, suggesting traders either took profits or stepped out ahead of this week’s CPI print. Short positioning hasn’t seen a meaningful jump — meaning this isn’t necessarily a full-on bearish shift, but more of a step back.
This type of positioning often signals caution — traders are waiting for fresh data before committing to a directional bias. A cooler CPI could open the door for more USD softness, while a hotter print might re-ignite long positioning.
EdgeFinder users can track these real-time positioning shifts to better gauge market sentiment before and after key data releases.
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Latest COT data shows a notable drop in USD long contracts, suggesting traders either took profits or stepped out ahead of this week’s CPI print. Short positioning hasn’t seen a meaningful jump — meaning this isn’t necessarily a full-on bearish shift, but more of a step back.
This type of positioning often signals caution — traders are waiting for fresh data before committing to a directional bias. A cooler CPI could open the door for more USD softness, while a hotter print might re-ignite long positioning.
EdgeFinder users can track these real-time positioning shifts to better gauge market sentiment before and after key data releases.
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🏆 2025 TRADING RESULTS - As of August 2025
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s the main goal of the Federal Reserve?
What’s the main goal of the Federal Reserve?
Anonymous Quiz
13%
Balanced trade
2%
High stock market
12%
Strong dollar & low oil prices
73%
Stable prices & maximum employment
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GBP/USD - Holding Above Support
GBP caught a bid early in the morning when seeing some better-than-expected labor data. GBP/USD held above resistance at 1.34500. A hold above the level would signal continued upside.
Fundamentally, UK payrolls dipped by only 8,000 in July, vs the 20,000 expected drop. Revisions to prior months also showed fewer losses than initially reported, hinting the job market is holding up despite the government’s £26B tax increase.
Unemployment stayed at 4.7%, a four-year high, while wage growth in the private sector eased slightly to 4.8% but remains well above the BoE’s target comfort for 2% inflation.
The data leaves the BoE juggling persistent inflation pressures against signs of labor market softness after last week’s narrow decision to cut rates by 25 bps.
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GBP caught a bid early in the morning when seeing some better-than-expected labor data. GBP/USD held above resistance at 1.34500. A hold above the level would signal continued upside.
Fundamentally, UK payrolls dipped by only 8,000 in July, vs the 20,000 expected drop. Revisions to prior months also showed fewer losses than initially reported, hinting the job market is holding up despite the government’s £26B tax increase.
Unemployment stayed at 4.7%, a four-year high, while wage growth in the private sector eased slightly to 4.8% but remains well above the BoE’s target comfort for 2% inflation.
The data leaves the BoE juggling persistent inflation pressures against signs of labor market softness after last week’s narrow decision to cut rates by 25 bps.
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