My team did a nice job putting together a breakdown on the Russell 2000 trade I have running.
Read the full trade breakdown here: https://www.a1trading.com/how-nick-capitalized-on-small-cap-strength-a-deep-dive-into-his-us2000-trade/ @everyone
Read the full trade breakdown here: https://www.a1trading.com/how-nick-capitalized-on-small-cap-strength-a-deep-dive-into-his-us2000-trade/ @everyone
A1 Trading
Nick’s Big Win on Small Caps: What He Saw Before the Breakout - A1 Trading
In one of his most successful trades of the year so far, Nick capitalized on a major breakout in the Russell 2000 (US2000) index, driven by a combination of macroeconomic shifts and well-timed entries. Let’s break down the trade, the reasoning behind it,…
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EdgeFinder's Forex Scanner
GBP/USD has been under pressure, dropping for 6 of the last 7 trading days. This move comes as the US labor market continues to beat expectations — with recent NFP and jobless claims data both coming in stronger than forecast — while the Pound sees weakening domestic momentum.
The EdgeFinder score for GBP/USD stands at -5 (Bearish). A closer look shows bearish COT filings, negative seasonality for July, and a recent dip in the Eco Surprise Meter to 40%, a bearish threshold. Meanwhile, the Dollar has regained strength on strong labor data and mixed rate expectations.
COT data reveals a shift in sentiment: net long positions on the Dollar increased 3.6% last week, while GBP long interest fell. Technically, the pair is stuck between resistance at 1.3750 and support at 1.3400, trading lower for now. US CPI due next week — a potential catalyst for breakout or breakdown
GBP/USD has been under pressure, dropping for 6 of the last 7 trading days. This move comes as the US labor market continues to beat expectations — with recent NFP and jobless claims data both coming in stronger than forecast — while the Pound sees weakening domestic momentum.
The EdgeFinder score for GBP/USD stands at -5 (Bearish). A closer look shows bearish COT filings, negative seasonality for July, and a recent dip in the Eco Surprise Meter to 40%, a bearish threshold. Meanwhile, the Dollar has regained strength on strong labor data and mixed rate expectations.
COT data reveals a shift in sentiment: net long positions on the Dollar increased 3.6% last week, while GBP long interest fell. Technically, the pair is stuck between resistance at 1.3750 and support at 1.3400, trading lower for now. US CPI due next week — a potential catalyst for breakout or breakdown
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NZD/USD – Decision Point
NZD/USD reversed lower today, breaking its short 2 day winning streak. The pair is back below the 0.6020 mark, showing signs of fading momentum after failing to hold recent highs. Price action is caught between 0.6000 support and 0.6100 resistance.
Fundamentally, Kiwi dollar is under pressure after fresh tariff threats from President Trump. His proposal to impose sweeping 15–20% tariffs on most trade partners is a clear risk to export-reliant economies like New Zealand, which previously faced just a 10% levy. Meanwhile, the RBNZ held rates steady at 3.25% but hinted at a possible rate cut in August if conditions allow. Markets are now pricing in a 65% chance of a cut next month, with another move potentially coming later this year.
Tariff fears and rising rate cut bets have flipped sentiment on the Kiwi. A break below 0.6000 may open the door for further downside, especially if US dollar strength persists.
NZD/USD reversed lower today, breaking its short 2 day winning streak. The pair is back below the 0.6020 mark, showing signs of fading momentum after failing to hold recent highs. Price action is caught between 0.6000 support and 0.6100 resistance.
Fundamentally, Kiwi dollar is under pressure after fresh tariff threats from President Trump. His proposal to impose sweeping 15–20% tariffs on most trade partners is a clear risk to export-reliant economies like New Zealand, which previously faced just a 10% levy. Meanwhile, the RBNZ held rates steady at 3.25% but hinted at a possible rate cut in August if conditions allow. Markets are now pricing in a 65% chance of a cut next month, with another move potentially coming later this year.
Tariff fears and rising rate cut bets have flipped sentiment on the Kiwi. A break below 0.6000 may open the door for further downside, especially if US dollar strength persists.
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JGB 30 Year Yields – Blind Spot?
Japan’s 30-year government bond yield broke above 3% for the first time since 2000, signaling a major shift in the country’s rate environment. This could unwind carry trades that rely on cheap yen funding, leading to JPY strength and global risk-off volatility. Japanese investors may also begin repatriating capital—especially from U.S. Treasuries—adding pressure to global yields and equities.
Rising JGB yields are shaking up one of the market’s most important funding dynamics. If repatriation accelerates or carry trades unwind aggressively, the yen could strengthen sharply and send ripples across global markets. All eyes are now on whether the BOJ steps in—or lets this regime shift play out.
Japan’s 30-year government bond yield broke above 3% for the first time since 2000, signaling a major shift in the country’s rate environment. This could unwind carry trades that rely on cheap yen funding, leading to JPY strength and global risk-off volatility. Japanese investors may also begin repatriating capital—especially from U.S. Treasuries—adding pressure to global yields and equities.
Rising JGB yields are shaking up one of the market’s most important funding dynamics. If repatriation accelerates or carry trades unwind aggressively, the yen could strengthen sharply and send ripples across global markets. All eyes are now on whether the BOJ steps in—or lets this regime shift play out.
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If you’re ready to level up your strategy like they did — and finally get a clear, data-backed view of the markets — now’s the time.
📊 Get 40% off the EdgeFinder with code TGVIP
Biggest sale of the year. Limited time only.
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EdgeFinder’s Economic Calendar
Did you know the EdgeFinder features its own real-time economic calendar? From central bank decisions to job reports and inflation data, traders can stay ahead of the curve with all key events in one place.
But it doesn’t stop there — after checking the calendar, pivot into EdgeFinder’s specialized tools like COT, Retail Sentiment, Seasonality, and Economic Heatmaps to connect the dots and build a complete market view.
EdgeFinder makes it easy to stay on top of the complex world of trading!
Happy Friday Traders!
Did you know the EdgeFinder features its own real-time economic calendar? From central bank decisions to job reports and inflation data, traders can stay ahead of the curve with all key events in one place.
But it doesn’t stop there — after checking the calendar, pivot into EdgeFinder’s specialized tools like COT, Retail Sentiment, Seasonality, and Economic Heatmaps to connect the dots and build a complete market view.
EdgeFinder makes it easy to stay on top of the complex world of trading!
Happy Friday Traders!
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🔔 Closing Bell – Question of the Day
What does a rate hike typically do to a currency?
What does a rate hike typically do to a currency?
Anonymous Quiz
62%
Strengthens it
25%
Weakens it
1%
No effect
12%
Depends on inflation
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Get instant access to:
✅ Top Setups Scanner
✅ Institutional Positioning (COT)
✅ Market Sentiment & Economic Heatmaps
✅ Seasonality & Forecasts
✅ Forex, Indices, Gold/Silver, Commodities, Bonds & More
✅ Macro Data: Labor Market, Inflation, Rates, Housing, Growth
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EUR/USD – Holding its Weight
EUR/USD is reclaiming ground after two red sessions. Price bounced off the $1.16550 handle and now hovers near $1.17 resistance — a big level traders are watching closely. Momentum remains cautious ahead of August’s tariff deadline. A break above $1.17 could open the door to 1.1800, while support sits around 1.1600
Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength came off the back of Trump slapping a 30% tariff on EU imports. Despite the risk-off tone in equities, the Euro caught a bid — likely fueled by traders betting on continued Dollar weakness and limited Fed runway.
The Euro's bounce may stick if no new headlines hit, but the tariff standoff and upcoming
EUR/USD is reclaiming ground after two red sessions. Price bounced off the $1.16550 handle and now hovers near $1.17 resistance — a big level traders are watching closely. Momentum remains cautious ahead of August’s tariff deadline. A break above $1.17 could open the door to 1.1800, while support sits around 1.1600
Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength came off the back of Trump slapping a 30% tariff on EU imports. Despite the risk-off tone in equities, the Euro caught a bid — likely fueled by traders betting on continued Dollar weakness and limited Fed runway.
The Euro's bounce may stick if no new headlines hit, but the tariff standoff and upcoming
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GBP/USD – Slipping Toward Support
GBP/USD is drifting lower, now trading near 1.35000 and creeping closer to the well-established support zone at 1.34000.
Fundamentally, Sterling continues to underperform as concerns grow around the UK’s limited fiscal headroom. According to ING, weak labor data or softer inflation this week could fuel calls for the BOE to accelerate rate cuts — adding more downside pressure.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces its own catalyst load, with a wave of data due. The consensus leans toward hotter inflation, meaning stronger prints could push USD higher and deepen GBP losses.
GBP/USD is hovering just above support, and the direction may hinge on who delivers the bigger surprise — the UK or the US.
GBP/USD is drifting lower, now trading near 1.35000 and creeping closer to the well-established support zone at 1.34000.
Fundamentally, Sterling continues to underperform as concerns grow around the UK’s limited fiscal headroom. According to ING, weak labor data or softer inflation this week could fuel calls for the BOE to accelerate rate cuts — adding more downside pressure.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces its own catalyst load, with a wave of data due. The consensus leans toward hotter inflation, meaning stronger prints could push USD higher and deepen GBP losses.
GBP/USD is hovering just above support, and the direction may hinge on who delivers the bigger surprise — the UK or the US.
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EdgeFinder’s US Economic Heatmap
Before we head into a week, it’s worth taking a glance at the US Economic Heatmap. While the Dollar has seen a relief rally since the strong jobs data, the next round of fundamental releases could shift the picture.
Right now, the map shows mixed momentum — a solid labor market but soft spots in inflation and consumer metrics.
CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment — all expected to favor the Dollar. But "expected" doesn't always mean "market-moving." A surprise in either direction could shift Fed rate expectations, impact yields, and ultimately drive DXY and risk sentiment. We'll be watching to see how the heatmap evolves after these prints hit.
Before we head into a week, it’s worth taking a glance at the US Economic Heatmap. While the Dollar has seen a relief rally since the strong jobs data, the next round of fundamental releases could shift the picture.
Right now, the map shows mixed momentum — a solid labor market but soft spots in inflation and consumer metrics.
CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment — all expected to favor the Dollar. But "expected" doesn't always mean "market-moving." A surprise in either direction could shift Fed rate expectations, impact yields, and ultimately drive DXY and risk sentiment. We'll be watching to see how the heatmap evolves after these prints hit.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What is CPI meant to measure?
What is CPI meant to measure?
Anonymous Quiz
8%
Employment
78%
Inflation
6%
GDP
8%
Interest Rates
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NASDAQ - No Ceiling in Sight
Nasdaq continues its climb, now trading near $23,000 and printing fresh all-time highs. After clearing the $22,000 resistance, price hasn’t looked back — offering little in the way of clean pullback entries. With no historical resistance levels left, it’s uncharted territory.
Fundamentally, the broader market has remained resilient despite headline pressure — from tariff escalations, geopolitical tensions, internal political concerns, and heavy speculative bets against it. Through it all, equities have powered higher, brushing off risk and narrowing focus back on the hard data.
With U.S. CPI up next, markets are watching closely. This print could reshape expectations around the Fed’s timeline. If inflation comes in hot, rate cut hopes may get pushed out — if not, risk assets might keep running. Either way, this leg of the rally is running light on resistance, but data will decide direction.
Nasdaq continues its climb, now trading near $23,000 and printing fresh all-time highs. After clearing the $22,000 resistance, price hasn’t looked back — offering little in the way of clean pullback entries. With no historical resistance levels left, it’s uncharted territory.
Fundamentally, the broader market has remained resilient despite headline pressure — from tariff escalations, geopolitical tensions, internal political concerns, and heavy speculative bets against it. Through it all, equities have powered higher, brushing off risk and narrowing focus back on the hard data.
With U.S. CPI up next, markets are watching closely. This print could reshape expectations around the Fed’s timeline. If inflation comes in hot, rate cut hopes may get pushed out — if not, risk assets might keep running. Either way, this leg of the rally is running light on resistance, but data will decide direction.
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USD/JPY - Back to Where It All Started
USD/JPY is trading just shy of 148.000, nearing the highs seen before the April 2nd tariff headlines shook the market. The pair has shown notable relative strength compared to other Dollar pairs, and now faces a key resistance level at 148.000 — a spot traders are watching closely.
Fundamentally, today’s U.S. CPI release is the main driver. The print could shape the Fed’s rate cut timeline. A hotter-than-expected number could give the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer, keeping the Dollar bid. A cooler CPI, on the other hand, might accelerate expectations for a cut — putting pressure on USD.
This release will offer early clues on whether interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Japan will widen or compress. A wider spread extends the life of the carry trade, supporting the pair. A narrower spread weakens that appeal — and could invite a pullback.
USD/JPY is trading just shy of 148.000, nearing the highs seen before the April 2nd tariff headlines shook the market. The pair has shown notable relative strength compared to other Dollar pairs, and now faces a key resistance level at 148.000 — a spot traders are watching closely.
Fundamentally, today’s U.S. CPI release is the main driver. The print could shape the Fed’s rate cut timeline. A hotter-than-expected number could give the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer, keeping the Dollar bid. A cooler CPI, on the other hand, might accelerate expectations for a cut — putting pressure on USD.
This release will offer early clues on whether interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Japan will widen or compress. A wider spread extends the life of the carry trade, supporting the pair. A narrower spread weakens that appeal — and could invite a pullback.
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