AUD/USD – Holding Up
AUD/USD is trading inside resistance around the 0.65500 level. The recent bounce may have marked a short-term top following Friday’s NFP beat, but the structure remains intact for now.
Fundamentally, the RBA surprised markets by keeping rates steady but clarified they’re waiting for the next quarterly CPI before acting again. This pause doesn’t necessarily mean dovishness—just patience.
Meanwhile, the Fed saw a hawkish repricing after strong NFP, Unemployment, and Jobless Claims data, which supported the US Dollar. All eyes now shift to this week’s CPI to determine whether that momentum can continue.
AUD/USD still holds up well in the bigger picture. As long as global growth remains firm, downside may be limited—but a hot CPI print could push us back toward key support levels.
AUD/USD is trading inside resistance around the 0.65500 level. The recent bounce may have marked a short-term top following Friday’s NFP beat, but the structure remains intact for now.
Fundamentally, the RBA surprised markets by keeping rates steady but clarified they’re waiting for the next quarterly CPI before acting again. This pause doesn’t necessarily mean dovishness—just patience.
Meanwhile, the Fed saw a hawkish repricing after strong NFP, Unemployment, and Jobless Claims data, which supported the US Dollar. All eyes now shift to this week’s CPI to determine whether that momentum can continue.
AUD/USD still holds up well in the bigger picture. As long as global growth remains firm, downside may be limited—but a hot CPI print could push us back toward key support levels.
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USD/JPY – Moving Strong
USD/JPY is testing the top of its range near 146.28, with buyers likely eyeing the next resistance at 148.28. That level has acted as a ceiling before, and sellers may step in there with risk defined above.
Fundamentally, last week’s strong NFP kept the Dollar bid—but soft wage growth capped the rally. On the Yen side, weak wage data and stalled US-Japan negotiations are dragging sentiment. With the BoJ placing weight on trade talks before acting on rates, this adds uncertainty around another hike in 2025.
In my opinion, we’re at a pressure point. Thursday’s Jobless Claims and the final rollout of US tariff policies could drive the next leg. Watch for clean follow-through above or rejection at resistance.
USD/JPY is testing the top of its range near 146.28, with buyers likely eyeing the next resistance at 148.28. That level has acted as a ceiling before, and sellers may step in there with risk defined above.
Fundamentally, last week’s strong NFP kept the Dollar bid—but soft wage growth capped the rally. On the Yen side, weak wage data and stalled US-Japan negotiations are dragging sentiment. With the BoJ placing weight on trade talks before acting on rates, this adds uncertainty around another hike in 2025.
In my opinion, we’re at a pressure point. Thursday’s Jobless Claims and the final rollout of US tariff policies could drive the next leg. Watch for clean follow-through above or rejection at resistance.
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DXY Daily Chart:
The dollar still looks pretty soft on the daily chart, momentum continues to favor downside on the higher timeframes.
With softening US economic data, this could lead to a longer term breakout on gold, and a softer dollar could continue to bolster US equities.
Remember: softer USD typically means rate cuts, and a weaker currency favors international companies that sell abroad.
- Nick
The dollar still looks pretty soft on the daily chart, momentum continues to favor downside on the higher timeframes.
With softening US economic data, this could lead to a longer term breakout on gold, and a softer dollar could continue to bolster US equities.
Remember: softer USD typically means rate cuts, and a weaker currency favors international companies that sell abroad.
- Nick
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Russell 2000 Daily Chart:
My best trade of the year so far. EdgeFinder bullish reading a few weeks back led to a huge buy-the-dip opportunity, which I was able to take advantage of.
Specifically, the EdgeFinder gave a bullish signal on the idea of cooling inflation + lowering interest rates, and generated a "BULLISH" signal in the EdgeFinder's Top Setups page.
Trailing stops from here, let's see how far it goes!
- Nick
My best trade of the year so far. EdgeFinder bullish reading a few weeks back led to a huge buy-the-dip opportunity, which I was able to take advantage of.
Specifically, the EdgeFinder gave a bullish signal on the idea of cooling inflation + lowering interest rates, and generated a "BULLISH" signal in the EdgeFinder's Top Setups page.
Trailing stops from here, let's see how far it goes!
- Nick
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EdgeFinder's Retail Positioning
This week’s COT data was delayed due to the U.S. holiday, which makes tracking retail positioning important. EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment Scanner gives us a real-time look at how the crowd is leaning.
Notable extremes:
PLATINUM: 100% long
USD/CHF: 88% long
GOLD: 76% long
RUSSELL & SILVER: ~93% long
SPX500: 91% short
NASDAQ: 87% short
Retail traders tend to pile in late and get squeezed — especially at key technical zones or after news. That’s why sentiment extremes are best used as a contrarian filter — not a stand-alone signal.
This week’s COT data was delayed due to the U.S. holiday, which makes tracking retail positioning important. EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment Scanner gives us a real-time look at how the crowd is leaning.
Notable extremes:
PLATINUM: 100% long
USD/CHF: 88% long
GOLD: 76% long
RUSSELL & SILVER: ~93% long
SPX500: 91% short
NASDAQ: 87% short
Retail traders tend to pile in late and get squeezed — especially at key technical zones or after news. That’s why sentiment extremes are best used as a contrarian filter — not a stand-alone signal.
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USD/CAD – Recovery or the Start of Something Bigger?
USD/CAD has continued to respect a bullish trendline dating back to 2023, bouncing off it twice in the past 30 days. For now, price action is trapped in a range between two key levels: resistance at 1.38000 and support at 1.36000.
Fundamentally, the dollar has faced aggressive selling pressure since April 2, with short positions becoming a crowded trade. However, the Dollar caught a bid following a strong NFP print and has held up since. Next week’s CPI release will be critical, offering insight into the Fed’s rate cut window. The combination of data and ongoing tariff developments may shape the dollar’s broader direction.
In my opinion, the outlook hinges on what comes next. Is this just another bounce within the long-term trend, or are we seeing the early signs of a larger trend reversal?
USD/CAD has continued to respect a bullish trendline dating back to 2023, bouncing off it twice in the past 30 days. For now, price action is trapped in a range between two key levels: resistance at 1.38000 and support at 1.36000.
Fundamentally, the dollar has faced aggressive selling pressure since April 2, with short positions becoming a crowded trade. However, the Dollar caught a bid following a strong NFP print and has held up since. Next week’s CPI release will be critical, offering insight into the Fed’s rate cut window. The combination of data and ongoing tariff developments may shape the dollar’s broader direction.
In my opinion, the outlook hinges on what comes next. Is this just another bounce within the long-term trend, or are we seeing the early signs of a larger trend reversal?
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USOIL – The Summer Trend Holds
In early June, oil broke above a key support level and has held above it ever since. During the initial stages of the Israel-Iran conflict, oil caught a strong bid, but those gains later faded as geopolitical tensions eased. Now, crude is trading just above the newly established support at $64.
For now, this new level of support seems to be holding, and the recent top from the Israel-Iran conflict appears to have solidified into a ceiling for price.
Fundamentally, oil tends to benefit from seasonal tailwinds during the summer months. Demand typically rises, COT positioning remains firm, and weather-related risks, like potential disruptions in the Gulf from hurricane season, add another layer of bullish pressure.
In early June, oil broke above a key support level and has held above it ever since. During the initial stages of the Israel-Iran conflict, oil caught a strong bid, but those gains later faded as geopolitical tensions eased. Now, crude is trading just above the newly established support at $64.
For now, this new level of support seems to be holding, and the recent top from the Israel-Iran conflict appears to have solidified into a ceiling for price.
Fundamentally, oil tends to benefit from seasonal tailwinds during the summer months. Demand typically rises, COT positioning remains firm, and weather-related risks, like potential disruptions in the Gulf from hurricane season, add another layer of bullish pressure.
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EdgeFinder’s CPI Chart
The Fed’s meeting minutes released today pointed to a shared expectation: lower inflation ahead. While some members flagged the possibility of a July rate cut, others signaled no cuts until 2025. The common ground? The Fed is ready to act—as soon as the data justifies it.
One of the most important data points is coming up next week: CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is a key measure of inflation, reflecting the change in the prices of goods and services paid by consumers. It’s one of the most watched indicators by the Fed when deciding on interest rates.
CPI currently sits at 2.4%, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Interestingly, 2.4% was the turning point last October, where inflation pressures began to tick back up. This makes the upcoming release especially critical—a moment that could shape the path forward for the Dollar, Equities, and Yields.
The Fed’s meeting minutes released today pointed to a shared expectation: lower inflation ahead. While some members flagged the possibility of a July rate cut, others signaled no cuts until 2025. The common ground? The Fed is ready to act—as soon as the data justifies it.
One of the most important data points is coming up next week: CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is a key measure of inflation, reflecting the change in the prices of goods and services paid by consumers. It’s one of the most watched indicators by the Fed when deciding on interest rates.
CPI currently sits at 2.4%, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Interestingly, 2.4% was the turning point last October, where inflation pressures began to tick back up. This makes the upcoming release especially critical—a moment that could shape the path forward for the Dollar, Equities, and Yields.
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GBP/USD – Momentum Slips as Data Shifts
GBP/USD has been under pressure, closing red in five of the last six sessions. Price is currently trading in a defined range, with resistance at 1.37500 and support at 1.34000. Today’s minor bounce follows a string of losses driven largely by shifting fundamentals.
Fundamentally, EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter for the Pound has fallen to 40%, confirming the bearish pressure. Just weeks ago, when GBP was trending higher, this reading sat well above 50%—signaling consistent beats in UK data.
The move lower has been driven by a combination of softer UK prints and strong US labor data. With both NFP and Jobless Claims beating expectations, the Dollar remains firm, weighing on GBP/USD. If this divergence continues, price could retest support—but traders should watch upcoming data before assuming a breakout either way.
GBP/USD has been under pressure, closing red in five of the last six sessions. Price is currently trading in a defined range, with resistance at 1.37500 and support at 1.34000. Today’s minor bounce follows a string of losses driven largely by shifting fundamentals.
Fundamentally, EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter for the Pound has fallen to 40%, confirming the bearish pressure. Just weeks ago, when GBP was trending higher, this reading sat well above 50%—signaling consistent beats in UK data.
The move lower has been driven by a combination of softer UK prints and strong US labor data. With both NFP and Jobless Claims beating expectations, the Dollar remains firm, weighing on GBP/USD. If this divergence continues, price could retest support—but traders should watch upcoming data before assuming a breakout either way.
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USD/CHF – Swissy Stays Strong
The Swiss Franc is holding near 0.796. It's up nearly 13% year-to-date, as safe-haven demand keeps capital flowing into CHF during ongoing US trade uncertainty. Recently, it has given up some of it's strength after the US saw better-than-expected labor data.
The Franc’s strength has persisted despite the Swiss National Bank’s efforts to slow appreciation. That momentum has been fueled by unpredictable US policy, particularly on trade and security. Recent Swiss CPI data surprised to the upside, with inflation rising 0.1% YoY in June, putting it back inside the SNB’s 0–2% target range.
With domestic inflation stabilizing, the SNB is expected to hold rates steady at 0% in September—and likely into 2026. This combination of safe-haven flows, solid fundamentals, and a neutral SNB stance continues to support CHF strength against the Dollar. Currently USD/CHF is catching a bid, recouping some of its recent losses.
The Swiss Franc is holding near 0.796. It's up nearly 13% year-to-date, as safe-haven demand keeps capital flowing into CHF during ongoing US trade uncertainty. Recently, it has given up some of it's strength after the US saw better-than-expected labor data.
The Franc’s strength has persisted despite the Swiss National Bank’s efforts to slow appreciation. That momentum has been fueled by unpredictable US policy, particularly on trade and security. Recent Swiss CPI data surprised to the upside, with inflation rising 0.1% YoY in June, putting it back inside the SNB’s 0–2% target range.
With domestic inflation stabilizing, the SNB is expected to hold rates steady at 0% in September—and likely into 2026. This combination of safe-haven flows, solid fundamentals, and a neutral SNB stance continues to support CHF strength against the Dollar. Currently USD/CHF is catching a bid, recouping some of its recent losses.
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