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GOLD – Downtrend Continues?
Gold has been trending lower for the past seven days, after rejecting resistance around $3,450 Currently, price is trading below the 50 Day MA — a close beneath this level could signal continued downside momentum. The next key support zone sits near $3,200.
Fundamentally, cooling tensions in the Middle East have eased demand for safe havens. Additionally, Trump mentioned that several trade deals are “in the final stages,” which may have added to broader risk-on sentiment. Also, equity indices have pushed to fresh ATH's
In my opinion, If equities continue their run and global tensions remain contained, Gold could see a deeper pullback. But any unexpected shock could quickly reverse this trend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Renewed geopolitical tensions or global escalation
- Weak equity performance triggers risk-off flows
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued strength in equities and risk-on appetite
- US data beats expectations, pushing real yields higher
– Alan
Gold has been trending lower for the past seven days, after rejecting resistance around $3,450 Currently, price is trading below the 50 Day MA — a close beneath this level could signal continued downside momentum. The next key support zone sits near $3,200.
Fundamentally, cooling tensions in the Middle East have eased demand for safe havens. Additionally, Trump mentioned that several trade deals are “in the final stages,” which may have added to broader risk-on sentiment. Also, equity indices have pushed to fresh ATH's
In my opinion, If equities continue their run and global tensions remain contained, Gold could see a deeper pullback. But any unexpected shock could quickly reverse this trend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Renewed geopolitical tensions or global escalation
- Weak equity performance triggers risk-off flows
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued strength in equities and risk-on appetite
- US data beats expectations, pushing real yields higher
– Alan
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VIX – Fades Lower
The VIX continues to drift lower, now trading around $17 and holding below its 200 Day MA. This signals a market environment that remains broadly risk-on, with volatility expectations staying relatively muted.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions and speculation around new trade deals have reduced demand for hedging. At the same time, equities have pushed to fresh all-time highs, reinforcing the current low-volatility regime.
In my opinion, keeping an eye on the VIX is crucial. While low readings often coincide with strong equity performance, they can also precede sharp spikes in volatility — especially if markets are caught off guard.
- Alan
The VIX continues to drift lower, now trading around $17 and holding below its 200 Day MA. This signals a market environment that remains broadly risk-on, with volatility expectations staying relatively muted.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions and speculation around new trade deals have reduced demand for hedging. At the same time, equities have pushed to fresh all-time highs, reinforcing the current low-volatility regime.
In my opinion, keeping an eye on the VIX is crucial. While low readings often coincide with strong equity performance, they can also precede sharp spikes in volatility — especially if markets are caught off guard.
- Alan
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EdgeFinder's Indices Scanner
The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.
Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.
Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility
In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R
The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.
Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.
Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility
In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R
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EUR/USD – 1.20000 Looks Closer and Closer
EUR/USD broke out above recent highs yesterday and is now trading near 1.17000. The pullback to the 1.14000 level was short-lived and quickly absorbed by strong buyers — suggesting momentum remains with the bulls.
Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength is being driven largely by broad-based Dollar weakness. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed’s first rate cut, with some speculation pointing to as early as July. That expectation has weighed on USD, boosting major counterparts like the Euro.
Looking ahead, US GDP and Jobless Claims are on deck this week. If GDP misses expectations or jobless claims tick higher, it could reinforce the case for a near-term rate cut — further pressuring the Dollar. On the flip side, a strong data beat could delay those expectations and stall EUR/USD’s rally.
In my opinion, if momentum holds and data aligns, a move toward 1.20000 is not off the table.
– Alan
EUR/USD broke out above recent highs yesterday and is now trading near 1.17000. The pullback to the 1.14000 level was short-lived and quickly absorbed by strong buyers — suggesting momentum remains with the bulls.
Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength is being driven largely by broad-based Dollar weakness. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed’s first rate cut, with some speculation pointing to as early as July. That expectation has weighed on USD, boosting major counterparts like the Euro.
Looking ahead, US GDP and Jobless Claims are on deck this week. If GDP misses expectations or jobless claims tick higher, it could reinforce the case for a near-term rate cut — further pressuring the Dollar. On the flip side, a strong data beat could delay those expectations and stall EUR/USD’s rally.
In my opinion, if momentum holds and data aligns, a move toward 1.20000 is not off the table.
– Alan
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US10Y – Reinforcing Dollar Weakness
The US 10-Year Yield is currently trading around 4.27%, comfortably below the 200 Day MA. This drop in yields supports the case for Fed easing, with below 4.5% levels often viewed as safe territory.
One of the main reasons rate cuts have been delayed is due to sticky yields. When long-term rates remain elevated, it becomes harder for the Fed to justify cutting — doing so while yields are rising risks signaling policy error. But with yields rolling over, the Fed may gain added confidence to proceed with cuts.
As of now, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If yields remain suppressed or drift even lower — those expectations may strengthen, further pressuring the Dollar.
– Alan
The US 10-Year Yield is currently trading around 4.27%, comfortably below the 200 Day MA. This drop in yields supports the case for Fed easing, with below 4.5% levels often viewed as safe territory.
One of the main reasons rate cuts have been delayed is due to sticky yields. When long-term rates remain elevated, it becomes harder for the Fed to justify cutting — doing so while yields are rising risks signaling policy error. But with yields rolling over, the Fed may gain added confidence to proceed with cuts.
As of now, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If yields remain suppressed or drift even lower — those expectations may strengthen, further pressuring the Dollar.
– Alan
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EdgeFinder's GDP Growth Chart
Up next is the US Final GDP QoQ and the GDP Price Index — two key metrics that could influence the Fed’s tone heading into the next policy meeting.
Looking at the EdgeFinder’s GDP tracker, we’ve seen mixed growth surprises over the past year. The most recent print came in at -0.20% vs. forecast of -0.30% — a small beat, but still a negative growth figure that adds to the slowdown narrative heading into Q2.
This modest upside wasn’t enough to shift sentiment in a major way, but it did reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to start easing. Markets are currently pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts.
In my opinion, this sets the tone heading into tomorrow’s Core PCE inflation release — which could solidify the rate cut timeline or push it further out depending on the outcome.
- Alan
Up next is the US Final GDP QoQ and the GDP Price Index — two key metrics that could influence the Fed’s tone heading into the next policy meeting.
Looking at the EdgeFinder’s GDP tracker, we’ve seen mixed growth surprises over the past year. The most recent print came in at -0.20% vs. forecast of -0.30% — a small beat, but still a negative growth figure that adds to the slowdown narrative heading into Q2.
This modest upside wasn’t enough to shift sentiment in a major way, but it did reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to start easing. Markets are currently pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts.
In my opinion, this sets the tone heading into tomorrow’s Core PCE inflation release — which could solidify the rate cut timeline or push it further out depending on the outcome.
- Alan
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GOLD – Pullback Continues
Gold has been pulling back steadily since June 16th, and now sits at a key bullish trendline that’s held up over the past several months. With price edging closer to the $3,200 support level, the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead.
Fundamentally, the landscape has shifted. Israel-Iran tensions have cooled, Trump signed a trade deal with China, and the Fed remains in a neutral-to-mixed stance. With many geopolitical and policy uncertainties fading, safe haven demand for Gold has softened — contributing to the recent downtrend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Further easing in global tensions
- Strong US data boosts rate hike odds and suppresses demand for Gold
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Surprise escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere
- Weaker economic data reignites demand for safe haven assets
– Alan
Gold has been pulling back steadily since June 16th, and now sits at a key bullish trendline that’s held up over the past several months. With price edging closer to the $3,200 support level, the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead.
Fundamentally, the landscape has shifted. Israel-Iran tensions have cooled, Trump signed a trade deal with China, and the Fed remains in a neutral-to-mixed stance. With many geopolitical and policy uncertainties fading, safe haven demand for Gold has softened — contributing to the recent downtrend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Further easing in global tensions
- Strong US data boosts rate hike odds and suppresses demand for Gold
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Surprise escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere
- Weaker economic data reignites demand for safe haven assets
– Alan
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AUD/USD – What a Week for Risk-On!
The Australian Dollar just posted four straight green days — with today’s candle still TBD. AUD, a classic risk-on currency, has been riding the wave of bullish sentiment in global markets. Price is now up against a key resistance level at 0.65500, with the next resistance at 0.67000 and nearby support down at 0.64000.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions, steady equity strength, and a cooling Dollar all contributed to the AUD’s upside. While price action was choppy earlier in the month, this week’s price action has cleaned up.
On the institutional side, last week’s COT report showed NZD with a strong +24.54% net change, while AUD came in weaker at -1.39%. I’ll be watching this Friday’s filing to see if AUD positioning catches up. Historically, AUD tends to performs in risk-on and underperform when risk-off flows dominate.
If 0.65500 gives way, we may be headed toward a test of 0.67000 — but a stall here could offer a pullback opportunity for bulls.
– Alan
The Australian Dollar just posted four straight green days — with today’s candle still TBD. AUD, a classic risk-on currency, has been riding the wave of bullish sentiment in global markets. Price is now up against a key resistance level at 0.65500, with the next resistance at 0.67000 and nearby support down at 0.64000.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions, steady equity strength, and a cooling Dollar all contributed to the AUD’s upside. While price action was choppy earlier in the month, this week’s price action has cleaned up.
On the institutional side, last week’s COT report showed NZD with a strong +24.54% net change, while AUD came in weaker at -1.39%. I’ll be watching this Friday’s filing to see if AUD positioning catches up. Historically, AUD tends to performs in risk-on and underperform when risk-off flows dominate.
If 0.65500 gives way, we may be headed toward a test of 0.67000 — but a stall here could offer a pullback opportunity for bulls.
– Alan
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EdgeFinder’s Seasonality Scanner – How History Can Help Your Edge
Ever wonder how seasonality could affect your trades?
In stable or low-volatility market environments, seasonality can be a powerful confluence tool. By analyzing how assets tend to perform during certain months over a 10-year average, we can better time entries, exits, or bias shifts — especially when paired with technicals and fundamentals.
Let’s look at the NASDAQ as an example:
Historically, summer is a strong period for equities:
- May: +2.13%
- June: +2.59%
- July: +3.12%
- August: +2.26%
Why? Typically, inflation and rate decisions are more predictable mid-year, earnings season can provide bullish catalysts, and risk sentiment often leans positive unless disrupted by major macro events.
Of course, seasonality isn’t a guarantee — but in calm markets, it can offer an extra layer of conviction.
Use seasonality with EdgeFinder's trend bias, COT data, and retail sentiment for well-rounded trade setups.
Ever wonder how seasonality could affect your trades?
In stable or low-volatility market environments, seasonality can be a powerful confluence tool. By analyzing how assets tend to perform during certain months over a 10-year average, we can better time entries, exits, or bias shifts — especially when paired with technicals and fundamentals.
Let’s look at the NASDAQ as an example:
Historically, summer is a strong period for equities:
- May: +2.13%
- June: +2.59%
- July: +3.12%
- August: +2.26%
Why? Typically, inflation and rate decisions are more predictable mid-year, earnings season can provide bullish catalysts, and risk sentiment often leans positive unless disrupted by major macro events.
Of course, seasonality isn’t a guarantee — but in calm markets, it can offer an extra layer of conviction.
Use seasonality with EdgeFinder's trend bias, COT data, and retail sentiment for well-rounded trade setups.
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