EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment – Retail Leans Long USD
Retail traders are currently leaning heavily in one direction — long USD. Instruments like USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY are seeing over 80% of retail positioning stacked on the long side. Meanwhile, equities and risk-on assets like NASDAQ, SPX500, and EUR/USD are showing extreme short positioning.
It’ll be interesting to see how this retail data lines up with this week’s upcoming COT report.
EdgeFinder will have the latest print soon!
Retail traders are currently leaning heavily in one direction — long USD. Instruments like USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY are seeing over 80% of retail positioning stacked on the long side. Meanwhile, equities and risk-on assets like NASDAQ, SPX500, and EUR/USD are showing extreme short positioning.
It’ll be interesting to see how this retail data lines up with this week’s upcoming COT report.
EdgeFinder will have the latest print soon!
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NASDAQ – Finally Made It
Despite months of uncertainty and a peak-to-trough drawdown of nearly 26%, the NASDAQ has officially reclaimed all-time highs — showcasing the resilience in US equities. Tech stocks have led the charge, propped up by AI optimism, stronger-than-expected earnings, and a "bad news is good news" macro tone that’s kept rate cut hopes alive.
Fundamentally, the rally comes amid easing inflation pressures, a still-strong labor market, and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may engineer a soft landing. But that optimism will be put to the test this week.
We're heading into a loaded calendar and a decision point for the NASDAQ. Fed Chair Powell testifies, followed by US GDP and PCE inflation later this week — all potential catalysts for increased volatility. And with Israel-Iran tensions still looming this rally could either build momentum — or stall.
– Alan
Despite months of uncertainty and a peak-to-trough drawdown of nearly 26%, the NASDAQ has officially reclaimed all-time highs — showcasing the resilience in US equities. Tech stocks have led the charge, propped up by AI optimism, stronger-than-expected earnings, and a "bad news is good news" macro tone that’s kept rate cut hopes alive.
Fundamentally, the rally comes amid easing inflation pressures, a still-strong labor market, and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may engineer a soft landing. But that optimism will be put to the test this week.
We're heading into a loaded calendar and a decision point for the NASDAQ. Fed Chair Powell testifies, followed by US GDP and PCE inflation later this week — all potential catalysts for increased volatility. And with Israel-Iran tensions still looming this rally could either build momentum — or stall.
– Alan
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DXY – Near the Lows
The Dollar is sitting on a key level of support, hovering near the bottom of its recent range. This area has historically seen buyers step in — but with markets on edge ahead of Powell and key data, the Dollar’s next move may come down to macro catalysts.
Fundamentally, the Dollar has softened in recent sessions following a wave of mixed US economic data and a slightly more cautious tone from the Fed. While Powell acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, he also emphasized the importance of incoming data — leaving rate cut timing uncertain. With GDP and PCE inflation data due this week, volatility could pick up fast. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have kept a mild bid in the Dollar due to its safe haven status — though that edge may fade if tensions cool.
In my opinion, DXY is at a decision point. A bounce from here could reinforce a broader range-bound pattern — but a clean break lower opens the door for a deeper retracement into early-year lows.
The Dollar is sitting on a key level of support, hovering near the bottom of its recent range. This area has historically seen buyers step in — but with markets on edge ahead of Powell and key data, the Dollar’s next move may come down to macro catalysts.
Fundamentally, the Dollar has softened in recent sessions following a wave of mixed US economic data and a slightly more cautious tone from the Fed. While Powell acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, he also emphasized the importance of incoming data — leaving rate cut timing uncertain. With GDP and PCE inflation data due this week, volatility could pick up fast. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have kept a mild bid in the Dollar due to its safe haven status — though that edge may fade if tensions cool.
In my opinion, DXY is at a decision point. A bounce from here could reinforce a broader range-bound pattern — but a clean break lower opens the door for a deeper retracement into early-year lows.
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⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Softer US GDP or PCE numbers undermine Fed’s hawkish stance
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing demand for USD as a safe haven
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Strong economic data or sticky inflation supports a higher-for-longer narrative
- Renewed risk-off sentiment brings buyers back into USD
– Alan
- Softer US GDP or PCE numbers undermine Fed’s hawkish stance
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing demand for USD as a safe haven
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Strong economic data or sticky inflation supports a higher-for-longer narrative
- Renewed risk-off sentiment brings buyers back into USD
– Alan
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Is This Normal For Oil🤔
Chart of the day: USO🔥
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EdgeFinder’s Eco Tab – Which Economies Are Surprising?
EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter gives us a snapshot of how each country’s economic data is performing relative to expectations — not just absolute numbers.
This week’s economic calendar is packed, making this meter especially useful:
- US: Final Q1 GDP, PCE inflation – critical for Fed expectations
- Eurozone: CPI Flash Estimate – key inflation readout for the ECB
- Japan: Tokyo CPI – a leading signal for national inflation trends
- Canada: Monthly GDP – a big one for CAD traders
- China: PMIs due – important for global risk sentiment
- Australia: Retail Sales – could impact AUD pairs significantly
In my opinion, this is one of the most underrated tools on EdgeFinder. Use it alongside price action and sentiment to build a well-rounded macro bias.
Let's see how the week unfolds!
– Alan
EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter gives us a snapshot of how each country’s economic data is performing relative to expectations — not just absolute numbers.
This week’s economic calendar is packed, making this meter especially useful:
- US: Final Q1 GDP, PCE inflation – critical for Fed expectations
- Eurozone: CPI Flash Estimate – key inflation readout for the ECB
- Japan: Tokyo CPI – a leading signal for national inflation trends
- Canada: Monthly GDP – a big one for CAD traders
- China: PMIs due – important for global risk sentiment
- Australia: Retail Sales – could impact AUD pairs significantly
In my opinion, this is one of the most underrated tools on EdgeFinder. Use it alongside price action and sentiment to build a well-rounded macro bias.
Let's see how the week unfolds!
– Alan
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
Fresh all-time-highs! With solid earnings from major companies, a ceasefire in the middle east, rate cuts expected this year, and inflation cooling down -
We've got a strong push by markets back to fresh highs.
Momentum continues to favor the bulls in my view, and I will continue to hold & add positioning on the bullish side. Looking for breakout + retest setups from here!
- Nick
Fresh all-time-highs! With solid earnings from major companies, a ceasefire in the middle east, rate cuts expected this year, and inflation cooling down -
We've got a strong push by markets back to fresh highs.
Momentum continues to favor the bulls in my view, and I will continue to hold & add positioning on the bullish side. Looking for breakout + retest setups from here!
- Nick
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GOLD – Downtrend Continues?
Gold has been trending lower for the past seven days, after rejecting resistance around $3,450 Currently, price is trading below the 50 Day MA — a close beneath this level could signal continued downside momentum. The next key support zone sits near $3,200.
Fundamentally, cooling tensions in the Middle East have eased demand for safe havens. Additionally, Trump mentioned that several trade deals are “in the final stages,” which may have added to broader risk-on sentiment. Also, equity indices have pushed to fresh ATH's
In my opinion, If equities continue their run and global tensions remain contained, Gold could see a deeper pullback. But any unexpected shock could quickly reverse this trend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Renewed geopolitical tensions or global escalation
- Weak equity performance triggers risk-off flows
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued strength in equities and risk-on appetite
- US data beats expectations, pushing real yields higher
– Alan
Gold has been trending lower for the past seven days, after rejecting resistance around $3,450 Currently, price is trading below the 50 Day MA — a close beneath this level could signal continued downside momentum. The next key support zone sits near $3,200.
Fundamentally, cooling tensions in the Middle East have eased demand for safe havens. Additionally, Trump mentioned that several trade deals are “in the final stages,” which may have added to broader risk-on sentiment. Also, equity indices have pushed to fresh ATH's
In my opinion, If equities continue their run and global tensions remain contained, Gold could see a deeper pullback. But any unexpected shock could quickly reverse this trend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Renewed geopolitical tensions or global escalation
- Weak equity performance triggers risk-off flows
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued strength in equities and risk-on appetite
- US data beats expectations, pushing real yields higher
– Alan
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VIX – Fades Lower
The VIX continues to drift lower, now trading around $17 and holding below its 200 Day MA. This signals a market environment that remains broadly risk-on, with volatility expectations staying relatively muted.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions and speculation around new trade deals have reduced demand for hedging. At the same time, equities have pushed to fresh all-time highs, reinforcing the current low-volatility regime.
In my opinion, keeping an eye on the VIX is crucial. While low readings often coincide with strong equity performance, they can also precede sharp spikes in volatility — especially if markets are caught off guard.
- Alan
The VIX continues to drift lower, now trading around $17 and holding below its 200 Day MA. This signals a market environment that remains broadly risk-on, with volatility expectations staying relatively muted.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions and speculation around new trade deals have reduced demand for hedging. At the same time, equities have pushed to fresh all-time highs, reinforcing the current low-volatility regime.
In my opinion, keeping an eye on the VIX is crucial. While low readings often coincide with strong equity performance, they can also precede sharp spikes in volatility — especially if markets are caught off guard.
- Alan
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EdgeFinder's Indices Scanner
The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.
Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.
Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility
In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R
The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.
Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.
Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility
In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R
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