Last week, institutional players reduced long positions while increasing shorts, pushing net bearish positioning higher. This is one of the key fundamental reasons why upside near the S&P 500’s all-time highs is limited.
Institutional investors continue to hold cash and remain on the sidelines for several reasons. For one, money market assets have surged to nearly $7 trillion, much of which isn’t poised to flow into equities - but into emergency liquidity instead like HYSA. Signaling uncertainty is still around. Though with the recent trade deal with US-China moving forward, a cooling CPI, the uncertainty could come down a bit.
Moving forward, we can use the EdgeFinder moving forward to see if this bearish pressure increases, and track it week-over-week.
- Alan
Institutional investors continue to hold cash and remain on the sidelines for several reasons. For one, money market assets have surged to nearly $7 trillion, much of which isn’t poised to flow into equities - but into emergency liquidity instead like HYSA. Signaling uncertainty is still around. Though with the recent trade deal with US-China moving forward, a cooling CPI, the uncertainty could come down a bit.
Moving forward, we can use the EdgeFinder moving forward to see if this bearish pressure increases, and track it week-over-week.
- Alan
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Back in April, Nick executed one of his top gold trades of the year—a +10.6% swing driven by a clean technical setup and a strong fundamental backdrop.
In this breakdown, he shares:
- The exact entry and exit
- Why he re-entered after an initial loss
- How he used fundamentals, sentiment, and simple technicals to hold the trade
- What made this setup so exceptional
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In this breakdown, he shares:
- The exact entry and exit
- Why he re-entered after an initial loss
- How he used fundamentals, sentiment, and simple technicals to hold the trade
- What made this setup so exceptional
📖 Read the full breakdown here
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🔥19👏5👀4
"Trading the Second Half" - Webinar Event Registration is now open!
Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025.
When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK
We'll be discussing:
- The USD's significant fall: is it turning, or headed lower?
- Is gold headed back to new highs?
- Bitcoin to 150K?
- Stock market rebound: New highs, or back to the lows?
We're pumped to do this event, and excited to have anyone who would like to attend join us for this important discussion.
Register for free here:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025.
When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK
We'll be discussing:
- The USD's significant fall: is it turning, or headed lower?
- Is gold headed back to new highs?
- Bitcoin to 150K?
- Stock market rebound: New highs, or back to the lows?
We're pumped to do this event, and excited to have anyone who would like to attend join us for this important discussion.
Register for free here:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
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"Great software and shining customer service."
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Thanks for the thoughtful review Max! We love to hear that the EdgeFinder has become an important part of your trading!
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Thanks for the thoughtful review Max! We love to hear that the EdgeFinder has become an important part of your trading!
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DXY — Breaking the Lows
DXY flushes beneath the recent ATL at 97.93. Looking left, there’s no clean target in sight. The next area of interest is the higher time frame trendline near 97.00. Could be setting up for a bear trap.
This move seems driven by rising Middle East tensions and this morning’s weak US data — both PPI and jobless claims came in below expectations.
Another reason I don’t expect significant downside is because traders have already started pricing in rate cuts for September, with a second one potentially following as early as October. That shift in expectations could start getting baked in here. We’ll keep an eye on the US10Y and CME FedWatch.
In my view, dollar weakness remains the path of least resistance. That said, a big move has already played out. If I got a fill short, I’d be aiming for small bites — not swinging for home runs.
- Alan
DXY flushes beneath the recent ATL at 97.93. Looking left, there’s no clean target in sight. The next area of interest is the higher time frame trendline near 97.00. Could be setting up for a bear trap.
This move seems driven by rising Middle East tensions and this morning’s weak US data — both PPI and jobless claims came in below expectations.
Another reason I don’t expect significant downside is because traders have already started pricing in rate cuts for September, with a second one potentially following as early as October. That shift in expectations could start getting baked in here. We’ll keep an eye on the US10Y and CME FedWatch.
In my view, dollar weakness remains the path of least resistance. That said, a big move has already played out. If I got a fill short, I’d be aiming for small bites — not swinging for home runs.
- Alan
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GOLD – Approaching the Highs
Gold is approaching all-time highs and a proven barrier to the upside. I’m curious to see if the level breaks and holds above. A move like that would signal another wave of risk-off environment. If so – I’d be interested in shorting USDJPY or USDCHF on pullbacks.
The reason for this move is tied to Middle East tensions rising. The Trump Administration placed a 60-day deadline for a new deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear operations. Also, continued weakening US data supported Gold’s rise.
In my opinion, shorting at resistance is tricky. Though potentially lucrative – shorting an asset that trends up over time and rising geopolitical risk is a dangerous game to play. I’d prefer to see a break and retest or wait for a buy opportunity at a discount IF the level fails.
Option 1: Wait for a break and retest. Valid trade if risk-off environment is still in-play.
Option 2: Wait for a discount. Tensions fade and risk-on environment is in play
- Alan
Gold is approaching all-time highs and a proven barrier to the upside. I’m curious to see if the level breaks and holds above. A move like that would signal another wave of risk-off environment. If so – I’d be interested in shorting USDJPY or USDCHF on pullbacks.
The reason for this move is tied to Middle East tensions rising. The Trump Administration placed a 60-day deadline for a new deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear operations. Also, continued weakening US data supported Gold’s rise.
In my opinion, shorting at resistance is tricky. Though potentially lucrative – shorting an asset that trends up over time and rising geopolitical risk is a dangerous game to play. I’d prefer to see a break and retest or wait for a buy opportunity at a discount IF the level fails.
Option 1: Wait for a break and retest. Valid trade if risk-off environment is still in-play.
Option 2: Wait for a discount. Tensions fade and risk-on environment is in play
- Alan
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US Economic Heatmap – Not Good, Not Terrible
The Eco Surprise Meter is ticking higher for the US — a positive shift. The broader economic picture has improved slightly, and correlations are starting to stabilize. CPI came in softer, which is generally a win for equities but a loss for the Dollar.
Equities like lower interest rates — cheaper borrowing, better margins, more room to grow
The Dollar, on the other hand, loses ground on a weaker CPI print. As the Fed moves toward rate cuts, yields come down, and that lowers returns for fixed income investors. Naturally, money starts rotating out of bonds and into risk-on assets like equities.
Also, tariff headlines have stabilized and price reactions have been suppressed. It seems like we're moving back to "data being data." I believe we're at a shifting point — In a good way.
- Alan
The Eco Surprise Meter is ticking higher for the US — a positive shift. The broader economic picture has improved slightly, and correlations are starting to stabilize. CPI came in softer, which is generally a win for equities but a loss for the Dollar.
Equities like lower interest rates — cheaper borrowing, better margins, more room to grow
The Dollar, on the other hand, loses ground on a weaker CPI print. As the Fed moves toward rate cuts, yields come down, and that lowers returns for fixed income investors. Naturally, money starts rotating out of bonds and into risk-on assets like equities.
Also, tariff headlines have stabilized and price reactions have been suppressed. It seems like we're moving back to "data being data." I believe we're at a shifting point — In a good way.
- Alan
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AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in mostly neutral - for the first time in many months.
This survey asks respondents if they're feeling bullish, neutral, or bearish on stocks. For months, the crowd has been bearish on stocks.
It looks like the bears finally threw in the towell... Sentiment in the middle now.
- Nick
This survey asks respondents if they're feeling bullish, neutral, or bearish on stocks. For months, the crowd has been bearish on stocks.
It looks like the bears finally threw in the towell... Sentiment in the middle now.
- Nick
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USOIL – Big Breakout
As mentioned before, USOIL was ranging near resistance while holding above the 50-day moving average. A technical breakout felt likely — and it played out. At the time, the EdgeFinder gave a strong +6 reading, backing the bullish trend.
Initially, the key drivers were Ukraine-Russia tensions, US sanctions on Russian oil, and seasonal demand increases. Now there's more fuel to the fire — last night, Israel-Iran tensions escalated following strikes.
In my view, if tensions continue to rise, we could see oil stay elevated or push a bit higher. But trading at these premium levels is risky. If you're in the move — great. If not — oh well.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Conflicts de-escalate
- Sanctions get rolled back
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Geopolitical tensions worsen
- Alan
As mentioned before, USOIL was ranging near resistance while holding above the 50-day moving average. A technical breakout felt likely — and it played out. At the time, the EdgeFinder gave a strong +6 reading, backing the bullish trend.
Initially, the key drivers were Ukraine-Russia tensions, US sanctions on Russian oil, and seasonal demand increases. Now there's more fuel to the fire — last night, Israel-Iran tensions escalated following strikes.
In my view, if tensions continue to rise, we could see oil stay elevated or push a bit higher. But trading at these premium levels is risky. If you're in the move — great. If not — oh well.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Conflicts de-escalate
- Sanctions get rolled back
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Geopolitical tensions worsen
- Alan
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VIX – A Gauge Into Risk
The VIX spiked briefly last night on renewed tensions in the Middle East — an expected reaction. For context, the VIX measures expected volatility in the SP500. When geopolitical risks rise, uncertainty floods in, and the VIX tends to jump. Usually, big price fluctuations follow a VIX spike.
Personally, I like using the VIX as a pulse check — are we bracing for more violent swings? Or are things starting to cool off? It’s not a perfect signal, but it helps paint a picture of where sentiment stands.
- Alan
The VIX spiked briefly last night on renewed tensions in the Middle East — an expected reaction. For context, the VIX measures expected volatility in the SP500. When geopolitical risks rise, uncertainty floods in, and the VIX tends to jump. Usually, big price fluctuations follow a VIX spike.
Personally, I like using the VIX as a pulse check — are we bracing for more violent swings? Or are things starting to cool off? It’s not a perfect signal, but it helps paint a picture of where sentiment stands.
- Alan
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With conflict in the Middle East - Rising VIX, OIL, Gold, CHF, JPY, and USD. It's no surprise why the EdgeFinder's Risk On / Risk Off Gauge shows we are in a Risk-Off environment for now.
Keeping track of these assets and world news could be a time consuming task. With software you can get a quick gauge of the environment in real-time - in <30 seconds..
Keeping track of these assets and world news could be a time consuming task. With software you can get a quick gauge of the environment in real-time - in <30 seconds..
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
"Trading the Second Half" - Webinar Event Registration is now open! Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025. When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK We'll be discussing:…
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GOLD – Cooling Off in the Middle East
Gold is currently sitting at a key level of resistance. A break and retest of this level could signal further upside, while a failure to break may suggest fading tensions.
Gold’s recent rally was driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. If tensions escalate, gold is likely to rally. If we see de-escalation, gold may pull back. Currently, safe havens are underperforming ahead of the market open, and I’m watching to see if we get continuation.
It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time these two countries have clashed, which may explain the muted reaction. However, if other nations get involved, we could see another risk-off spike.
– Alan
Gold is currently sitting at a key level of resistance. A break and retest of this level could signal further upside, while a failure to break may suggest fading tensions.
Gold’s recent rally was driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. If tensions escalate, gold is likely to rally. If we see de-escalation, gold may pull back. Currently, safe havens are underperforming ahead of the market open, and I’m watching to see if we get continuation.
It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time these two countries have clashed, which may explain the muted reaction. However, if other nations get involved, we could see another risk-off spike.
– Alan
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USOIL – Double Top or Pullback going higher?
OIL rallied massively Thursday night when the initial strikes took place in the Middle East. Topping out 12. Now – price is retracing the move potentially all the way down to the 200 Day MA.
OIL was a great breakout trade excluding the Israel-Iran conflict.
We had multiple fundamental confluences like: seasonal demand, Russia-Ukraine, COT buying, and technical confluences. The Israel-Iran was added fuel to the fire.
In my opinion, we could potentially pull back and get a buying opportunity. The most recent high on OIL could be a ceiling for future upside
- Alan
OIL rallied massively Thursday night when the initial strikes took place in the Middle East. Topping out 12. Now – price is retracing the move potentially all the way down to the 200 Day MA.
OIL was a great breakout trade excluding the Israel-Iran conflict.
We had multiple fundamental confluences like: seasonal demand, Russia-Ukraine, COT buying, and technical confluences. The Israel-Iran was added fuel to the fire.
In my opinion, we could potentially pull back and get a buying opportunity. The most recent high on OIL could be a ceiling for future upside
- Alan
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EdgeFinder's Risk On / Risk Off Gauge
Last Friday, the gauge showed us we are in risk-off trading. Since, traders are calling bluff on the Israel-Iran conflict for now. That's displayed by falling oil prices, falling VIX, and falling Gold. On the contrary - Risk assets are rising again.
For most assets - all major moves that occurred on Thursday/Friday have been retraced. Despite the bombshell headlines over the weekend, the reaction was short-lived.
We can keep an eye on the VIX and safe haven flows to see if things shift. Safe trading!
- Alan
Last Friday, the gauge showed us we are in risk-off trading. Since, traders are calling bluff on the Israel-Iran conflict for now. That's displayed by falling oil prices, falling VIX, and falling Gold. On the contrary - Risk assets are rising again.
For most assets - all major moves that occurred on Thursday/Friday have been retraced. Despite the bombshell headlines over the weekend, the reaction was short-lived.
We can keep an eye on the VIX and safe haven flows to see if things shift. Safe trading!
- Alan
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AI-Generated Trade Setups 🤖
The EdgeFinder automatically sources and evaluates a wide range of market data, such as the COT report, economic figures, central bank forecasts, and more. Using an advanced trading AI, the EdgeFinder then assigns a bullish or bearish reading to your favorite currency pairs, indices, and gold!
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https://a1trading.com/edgefinder/
The EdgeFinder automatically sources and evaluates a wide range of market data, such as the COT report, economic figures, central bank forecasts, and more. Using an advanced trading AI, the EdgeFinder then assigns a bullish or bearish reading to your favorite currency pairs, indices, and gold!
Get EdgeFinder Access!
🔴 10% OFF code: TGVIP
https://a1trading.com/edgefinder/
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