Nick's Gold Trade Breakdown
April 2025
🟢 Entry Price: 2959.83
🔴 Exit Price: 3274
Trade Result: +10.6%
Technical Analysis:
Nick re-entered this trade after price pulled back to a key support zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, within a strong uptrend. He used a slightly larger position with a tight stop below the 50% zone, aiming for a swing trade targeting a return to all-time highs.
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite tariff uncertainty, the market was showing strong relative performance. That strength, combined with a supportive macro backdrop, reinforced Nick’s bullish outlook.
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April 2025
🟢 Entry Price: 2959.83
🔴 Exit Price: 3274
Trade Result: +10.6%
Technical Analysis:
Nick re-entered this trade after price pulled back to a key support zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, within a strong uptrend. He used a slightly larger position with a tight stop below the 50% zone, aiming for a swing trade targeting a return to all-time highs.
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite tariff uncertainty, the market was showing strong relative performance. That strength, combined with a supportive macro backdrop, reinforced Nick’s bullish outlook.
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❤35👍6🫡1
DXY – Dollar finds strength after Payroll numbers
Earlier this week the dollar found support around the $98 range – with all eyes on the upcoming Jobs data for the week.
There was a mixed bag of data up leading up to today’s NFP report. Today – NFP beat expectations giving the dollar strength.
I’m interested to see how the DXY reacts to the $100 handle. Depending on how the data is around then – we could see a short-term rally in the Dollar. However, it’s important to note that the US has some rate cuts ahead. Short term appreciation can be short lived followed by rate cut pricing.
In my opinion, dollar is in the middle of a range with lack of direction.
- Alan
Earlier this week the dollar found support around the $98 range – with all eyes on the upcoming Jobs data for the week.
There was a mixed bag of data up leading up to today’s NFP report. Today – NFP beat expectations giving the dollar strength.
I’m interested to see how the DXY reacts to the $100 handle. Depending on how the data is around then – we could see a short-term rally in the Dollar. However, it’s important to note that the US has some rate cuts ahead. Short term appreciation can be short lived followed by rate cut pricing.
In my opinion, dollar is in the middle of a range with lack of direction.
- Alan
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OIL – The breakout trade
Earlier this week we discussed the potential OIL breakout trade. As the week comes to an end the setup looks more promising.
The EdgeFinder maintains a bullish reading of +6 for OIL, making the trade idea valid fundamentally. Technically – OIL has stayed about the 50 Day MA and are not testing resistance.
In my opinion, OIL getting a break and retest of the $65 handle would be a good setup technically and fundamentally.
- Alan
Earlier this week we discussed the potential OIL breakout trade. As the week comes to an end the setup looks more promising.
The EdgeFinder maintains a bullish reading of +6 for OIL, making the trade idea valid fundamentally. Technically – OIL has stayed about the 50 Day MA and are not testing resistance.
In my opinion, OIL getting a break and retest of the $65 handle would be a good setup technically and fundamentally.
- Alan
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US Economic Heatmap
Although the US saw a positive NFP print, recent data releases cannot be ignored. Fundamentally, the US has been consistently missing expectations, putting pressure on the Dollar.
Additionally, the Fed is seeking an opportunity to lower interest rates, which would likely weigh further on the USD.
With sticky 10-year yields, underwhelming economic data, and ongoing tariff uncertainty, the US is in a challenging position. Any escalation in tariffs or continued weakness in economic indicators could lead to further Dollar downside.
Conversely, persistent yields and inflation risks may help support the Dollar for now.
- Alan
Although the US saw a positive NFP print, recent data releases cannot be ignored. Fundamentally, the US has been consistently missing expectations, putting pressure on the Dollar.
Additionally, the Fed is seeking an opportunity to lower interest rates, which would likely weigh further on the USD.
With sticky 10-year yields, underwhelming economic data, and ongoing tariff uncertainty, the US is in a challenging position. Any escalation in tariffs or continued weakness in economic indicators could lead to further Dollar downside.
Conversely, persistent yields and inflation risks may help support the Dollar for now.
- Alan
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Happy Monday! Who's ready for another week of trading?
EUR/USD – Was it a fakeout?
The Euro broke resistance at 1.14500 last Thursday but quickly traded below. The level of resistance has held about 8 times now. Typically – the more frequent a zone gets tested, the more likely it is to fail. Especially if we see tight rangebound price action in the zone.
The economic calendar is empty for today on both sides. The attention is on US-China’s meeting in London. A good outcome could propel the Dollar, causing the Euro to retrace.
There’s a level of sellers at 1.14400, and buyers at 1.12400
I’d personally wait for deeper retracements on Dollar crosses before shorting DXY.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US-China relations improving today
- Hotter than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US-China relations worsening today
- Cooler than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
- Alan
EUR/USD – Was it a fakeout?
The Euro broke resistance at 1.14500 last Thursday but quickly traded below. The level of resistance has held about 8 times now. Typically – the more frequent a zone gets tested, the more likely it is to fail. Especially if we see tight rangebound price action in the zone.
The economic calendar is empty for today on both sides. The attention is on US-China’s meeting in London. A good outcome could propel the Dollar, causing the Euro to retrace.
There’s a level of sellers at 1.14400, and buyers at 1.12400
I’d personally wait for deeper retracements on Dollar crosses before shorting DXY.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US-China relations improving today
- Hotter than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US-China relations worsening today
- Cooler than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
- Alan
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GOLD – Playing the patient game
Gold is trading in the middle of its current range with bearish price action. Sellers stepped in around $3,400, while buyers were active near $3,200. Trading Gold while it's in equilibrium is not something I’d consider.
Fundamentally, Gold has been reacting to tariff-related news. US tariffs affect countries globally, and Gold’s performance often reflects a risk-on or risk-off sentiment worldwide. Currently, tensions on the tariff front are easing. The US and China are meeting in London, and the outcome could impact safe haven assets like Gold.
In my opinion, I’d prefer to wait for Gold to retrace further before buying. There's likely some kind of risk-off catalyst on the horizon—but the timing is uncertain. Waiting for Gold to reach a discount level on a higher timeframe could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity.
Gold is trading in the middle of its current range with bearish price action. Sellers stepped in around $3,400, while buyers were active near $3,200. Trading Gold while it's in equilibrium is not something I’d consider.
Fundamentally, Gold has been reacting to tariff-related news. US tariffs affect countries globally, and Gold’s performance often reflects a risk-on or risk-off sentiment worldwide. Currently, tensions on the tariff front are easing. The US and China are meeting in London, and the outcome could impact safe haven assets like Gold.
In my opinion, I’d prefer to wait for Gold to retrace further before buying. There's likely some kind of risk-off catalyst on the horizon—but the timing is uncertain. Waiting for Gold to reach a discount level on a higher timeframe could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity.
🔥35👍9🫡4
EdgeFinder is showing a +6 reading, suggesting that upside may be the path of least resistance.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
US–China meeting ends poorly
US inflation prints hot
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
US–China meeting ends well
US inflation prints cool
– Alan
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
US–China meeting ends poorly
US inflation prints hot
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
US–China meeting ends well
US inflation prints cool
– Alan
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EdgeFinder CPI Chart - A glimpse before the print
Inflation in the US currently sits at 2.3%, just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A tick down in the upcoming print could strengthen the case for rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the dollar as investors price in easier policy. On the other hand, a tick up may delay those expectations, supporting the dollar as the Fed holds firm on rates to keep inflation in check. Markets will be watching closely for any signal that shifts the Fed's timing.
- Alan
Inflation in the US currently sits at 2.3%, just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A tick down in the upcoming print could strengthen the case for rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the dollar as investors price in easier policy. On the other hand, a tick up may delay those expectations, supporting the dollar as the Fed holds firm on rates to keep inflation in check. Markets will be watching closely for any signal that shifts the Fed's timing.
- Alan
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GBP/USD
The Pound has shown resilience against its peers. Last night it traded to the nearest level of support around 1.34580 and held nicely, indicating strong buyers are participating in pullbacks.
Last night, the UK saw it’s round of employment data. It was a miss. Pound traded down into that area of support, but buyers stepped in. Tomorrow, we get CPI for the US – a print everyone is paying attention to.
In my opinion, GBP is a great vehicle for participating in Dollar bearishness. Because the GBP is doing much better than the US regarding economic prints. Even if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expected and sends the Pound lower – I’m personally looking to fade any short-term Dollar appreciation.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Hot CPI print in US
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Cool CPI print in US
- Alan
The Pound has shown resilience against its peers. Last night it traded to the nearest level of support around 1.34580 and held nicely, indicating strong buyers are participating in pullbacks.
Last night, the UK saw it’s round of employment data. It was a miss. Pound traded down into that area of support, but buyers stepped in. Tomorrow, we get CPI for the US – a print everyone is paying attention to.
In my opinion, GBP is a great vehicle for participating in Dollar bearishness. Because the GBP is doing much better than the US regarding economic prints. Even if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expected and sends the Pound lower – I’m personally looking to fade any short-term Dollar appreciation.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Hot CPI print in US
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Cool CPI print in US
- Alan
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NZD/USD – Pure Resilience
Recently the NZD has been resilient despite the market uncertainty. Since April 9th NZD has been bought at any sight of a pullback. Last week the NZD broke out of resistance and has been trading above that level since, showing strength.
Fundamentally, NZD has been beating expectations, bought by institutions for four weeks in a row, and is net bearish for retail positioning.
In my opinion, the NZD will be my preferred pair of choice when shorting USD. Only IF it these variables stay strong.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US CPI comes in hot
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US CPI comes in cool
- Alan
Recently the NZD has been resilient despite the market uncertainty. Since April 9th NZD has been bought at any sight of a pullback. Last week the NZD broke out of resistance and has been trading above that level since, showing strength.
Fundamentally, NZD has been beating expectations, bought by institutions for four weeks in a row, and is net bearish for retail positioning.
In my opinion, the NZD will be my preferred pair of choice when shorting USD. Only IF it these variables stay strong.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US CPI comes in hot
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US CPI comes in cool
- Alan
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sentiment
Retail sentiment is one of my favorite contrarian signals in FX. It’s similar to how you might use the Put/Call Ratio in equities or options to gauge when sentiment is stretched in one direction. With EdgeFinder’s retail sentiment screen, we can see that retail traders are currently net long the Dollar across most major FX pairs.
That adds another layer of confluence to my view that Dollar strength may be short-lived. That doesn't mean Dollar will go straight down from here. I'm interested in fading meaningful Dollar appreciation.
-Alan
Retail sentiment is one of my favorite contrarian signals in FX. It’s similar to how you might use the Put/Call Ratio in equities or options to gauge when sentiment is stretched in one direction. With EdgeFinder’s retail sentiment screen, we can see that retail traders are currently net long the Dollar across most major FX pairs.
That adds another layer of confluence to my view that Dollar strength may be short-lived. That doesn't mean Dollar will go straight down from here. I'm interested in fading meaningful Dollar appreciation.
-Alan
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Trading in futures and options involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
❤12🔥2🫡1
US10Y – Traders Add Bets on a September Start to Fed Rate Cuts After CPI
The US10Y fell sharply after a cooler-than-expected CPI print and a positive trade development between the US and China. With both data and diplomacy working in favor of risk sentiment, traders are now adding to bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as September.
The CPI is one of the Fed’s key inflation metrics, and this softer print brings us closer to their 2% target. That, in turn, gives the Fed more confidence to start easing.
I personally watch the US10Y closely to gauge rate expectations. If the 10Y keeps trending lower, that’s a signal to me that the market is pricing in cuts—so I look to express that view by trading against the Dollar through currency pairs.
- Alan
The US10Y fell sharply after a cooler-than-expected CPI print and a positive trade development between the US and China. With both data and diplomacy working in favor of risk sentiment, traders are now adding to bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as September.
The CPI is one of the Fed’s key inflation metrics, and this softer print brings us closer to their 2% target. That, in turn, gives the Fed more confidence to start easing.
I personally watch the US10Y closely to gauge rate expectations. If the 10Y keeps trending lower, that’s a signal to me that the market is pricing in cuts—so I look to express that view by trading against the Dollar through currency pairs.
- Alan
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Gold Membership
Now: $419 (with code TGVIP)
✅One time Payment / Lifetime access
✅ Indices, commodities, forex, options, & stock signals from Nick, Alan, & Eivind
✅ Live & Recorded Webinars
✅ Strategy Library
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✅ Live Trading Chatroom
Join the VIP discord here!
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SP500 - Is It Time to Chase?
The S&P is approaching all-time highs, but upside may be limited in the short term. While tagging new highs feels inevitable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fakeout or some temporary exhaustion.
From a fundamental standpoint, COT data shows institutional money pulling back - removing 6,033 long contracts and adding 11,248 shorts. Net positioning has shifted more bearish, and a lot of major players are still on the sidelines.
In my view, some upcoming newsflow could bring the S&P into a rangebound environment or spark a healthy retracement. At these premium prices, I’m not looking to chase longs. Patience is key - and I think better opportunities are just around the corner.
- Alan
The S&P is approaching all-time highs, but upside may be limited in the short term. While tagging new highs feels inevitable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fakeout or some temporary exhaustion.
From a fundamental standpoint, COT data shows institutional money pulling back - removing 6,033 long contracts and adding 11,248 shorts. Net positioning has shifted more bearish, and a lot of major players are still on the sidelines.
In my view, some upcoming newsflow could bring the S&P into a rangebound environment or spark a healthy retracement. At these premium prices, I’m not looking to chase longs. Patience is key - and I think better opportunities are just around the corner.
- Alan
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Last week, institutional players reduced long positions while increasing shorts, pushing net bearish positioning higher. This is one of the key fundamental reasons why upside near the S&P 500’s all-time highs is limited.
Institutional investors continue to hold cash and remain on the sidelines for several reasons. For one, money market assets have surged to nearly $7 trillion, much of which isn’t poised to flow into equities - but into emergency liquidity instead like HYSA. Signaling uncertainty is still around. Though with the recent trade deal with US-China moving forward, a cooling CPI, the uncertainty could come down a bit.
Moving forward, we can use the EdgeFinder moving forward to see if this bearish pressure increases, and track it week-over-week.
- Alan
Institutional investors continue to hold cash and remain on the sidelines for several reasons. For one, money market assets have surged to nearly $7 trillion, much of which isn’t poised to flow into equities - but into emergency liquidity instead like HYSA. Signaling uncertainty is still around. Though with the recent trade deal with US-China moving forward, a cooling CPI, the uncertainty could come down a bit.
Moving forward, we can use the EdgeFinder moving forward to see if this bearish pressure increases, and track it week-over-week.
- Alan
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Back in April, Nick executed one of his top gold trades of the year—a +10.6% swing driven by a clean technical setup and a strong fundamental backdrop.
In this breakdown, he shares:
- The exact entry and exit
- Why he re-entered after an initial loss
- How he used fundamentals, sentiment, and simple technicals to hold the trade
- What made this setup so exceptional
📖 Read the full breakdown here
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In this breakdown, he shares:
- The exact entry and exit
- Why he re-entered after an initial loss
- How he used fundamentals, sentiment, and simple technicals to hold the trade
- What made this setup so exceptional
📖 Read the full breakdown here
Want real-time trades like this? Use code TGVIP for 40% off VIP access. JOIN HERE
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"Trading the Second Half" - Webinar Event Registration is now open!
Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025.
When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK
We'll be discussing:
- The USD's significant fall: is it turning, or headed lower?
- Is gold headed back to new highs?
- Bitcoin to 150K?
- Stock market rebound: New highs, or back to the lows?
We're pumped to do this event, and excited to have anyone who would like to attend join us for this important discussion.
Register for free here:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025.
When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK
We'll be discussing:
- The USD's significant fall: is it turning, or headed lower?
- Is gold headed back to new highs?
- Bitcoin to 150K?
- Stock market rebound: New highs, or back to the lows?
We're pumped to do this event, and excited to have anyone who would like to attend join us for this important discussion.
Register for free here:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
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