USD/CHF – The biggest beneficiary to tariff deals
USDCHF broke the downward trendline on May 27th and has stayed above it since. It also stayed above the support at 0.82000 after a fake-out. It could stay in a range and target the 50 Day MA at 0.83000.
USDCHF performs really well when tariff headlines are positive. CHF is a safe haven currency and investors flock to it when times are uncertain. On the contrary, CHF sees outflows when the market sees clarity and risk-on sentiment.
In my opinion, downside for USD/CHF is limited for three main reasons
1. Price action reacts strongly bullish when tariff headlines are good
2. The SNB does not want CHF to be too strong and are willing to intervene if it does so
3. CHF is a safe-haven and performs poorly with risk-on sentiment
* If there are no deals tomorrow, my bullish bias will be invalidated. Especially if US labor data comes in bad. Personally, I'm waiting for clarity.
USDCHF broke the downward trendline on May 27th and has stayed above it since. It also stayed above the support at 0.82000 after a fake-out. It could stay in a range and target the 50 Day MA at 0.83000.
USDCHF performs really well when tariff headlines are positive. CHF is a safe haven currency and investors flock to it when times are uncertain. On the contrary, CHF sees outflows when the market sees clarity and risk-on sentiment.
In my opinion, downside for USD/CHF is limited for three main reasons
1. Price action reacts strongly bullish when tariff headlines are good
2. The SNB does not want CHF to be too strong and are willing to intervene if it does so
3. CHF is a safe-haven and performs poorly with risk-on sentiment
* If there are no deals tomorrow, my bullish bias will be invalidated. Especially if US labor data comes in bad. Personally, I'm waiting for clarity.
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🔴Risks to consider for bulls:
- Shaky comments about deals tomorrow. No progress. No countries stepping up.
- Bad US labor data
🔴Risks to consider for bears:
- Countries are making deals
- Good US labor data
- Alan
- Shaky comments about deals tomorrow. No progress. No countries stepping up.
- Bad US labor data
🔴Risks to consider for bears:
- Countries are making deals
- Good US labor data
- Alan
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US2000 / RUSSELL Daily Chart:
We're pushing higher today on strong Job Openings data from this morning.
While inflation seems to be continuing to cool, but economic data holds up well - it looks likely that we are in a goldilocks type environment for stocks.
This type of environment is one in which I think small companies (like the ones in the US2000 / Russell) can really outperform.
Watching for a breakout in order to trail stops!
- Nick
We're pushing higher today on strong Job Openings data from this morning.
While inflation seems to be continuing to cool, but economic data holds up well - it looks likely that we are in a goldilocks type environment for stocks.
This type of environment is one in which I think small companies (like the ones in the US2000 / Russell) can really outperform.
Watching for a breakout in order to trail stops!
- Nick
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
US2000 / RUSSELL Daily Chart: We're pushing higher today on strong Job Openings data from this morning. While inflation seems to be continuing to cool, but economic data holds up well - it looks likely that we are in a goldilocks type environment for stocks.…
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Nick's S&P500 Trade Breakdown
August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
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August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
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USOIL – A breakout ready to happen?
Since April 4th – Oil has been trading below resistance @ the $65 handle. Recently, Oil has been trading in a tight range using the 50 Day MA as support. Staying above the MA and breaking out of the $65 resistance could lead us to fill the pocket on the left side and target the 200 Day MA.
What happened fundamentally:
1. Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military airbases have heightened geopolitical risks, leading to a temporary surge in oil prices.
2. U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil: U.S. lawmakers are advocating for stricter sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially disrupting global oil supply chains.
3. Seasonal Demand Increase: The onset of the U.S. summer driving season typically boosts gasoline consumption, supporting higher crude demand.
In my opinion – the bullish reading from EdgeFinder and technical breakout forming, upside momentum is probable.
Since April 4th – Oil has been trading below resistance @ the $65 handle. Recently, Oil has been trading in a tight range using the 50 Day MA as support. Staying above the MA and breaking out of the $65 resistance could lead us to fill the pocket on the left side and target the 200 Day MA.
What happened fundamentally:
1. Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military airbases have heightened geopolitical risks, leading to a temporary surge in oil prices.
2. U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil: U.S. lawmakers are advocating for stricter sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially disrupting global oil supply chains.
3. Seasonal Demand Increase: The onset of the U.S. summer driving season typically boosts gasoline consumption, supporting higher crude demand.
In my opinion – the bullish reading from EdgeFinder and technical breakout forming, upside momentum is probable.
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⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- A strong dollar, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers
- Growth and demand expectations drop
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Hurricanes in the Gulf can shut down refining capacity
- A risk-on environment often supports commodities like oil.
- Alan
- A strong dollar, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers
- Growth and demand expectations drop
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Hurricanes in the Gulf can shut down refining capacity
- A risk-on environment often supports commodities like oil.
- Alan
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NASDAQ – Is it going to make new highs?
Nasdaq has been resilient despite the hint of uncertainty. It’s currently approaching all-time highs.
Fundamentally, buyers have been stepping in and showing dominance. The US economic health has progressed. The EdgeFinder currently shows a score of +14!
In my opinion, it’s probable we test all time highs in the near term. However, staying there could be hard to determine now. With the Fed waiting for more clarity, a hint of hawkishness could send US equities lower. Also, the current environment we’re in is very news driven. Unexpected bombshell news could send it lower.
I’m cautiously bullish, especially at current price.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- A flash of tariff threats
- A hawkish Fed
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued progression in tariff talks
- Deregulation for businesses
- A dovish Fed
- Alan
Nasdaq has been resilient despite the hint of uncertainty. It’s currently approaching all-time highs.
Fundamentally, buyers have been stepping in and showing dominance. The US economic health has progressed. The EdgeFinder currently shows a score of +14!
In my opinion, it’s probable we test all time highs in the near term. However, staying there could be hard to determine now. With the Fed waiting for more clarity, a hint of hawkishness could send US equities lower. Also, the current environment we’re in is very news driven. Unexpected bombshell news could send it lower.
I’m cautiously bullish, especially at current price.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- A flash of tariff threats
- A hawkish Fed
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued progression in tariff talks
- Deregulation for businesses
- A dovish Fed
- Alan
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Quick glance at USOIL’s scanner.
Bullish EdgeFinder score of +6. Institutional investors are net long and retail traders are heavily net short – a good confluence to see. Seasonality also plays a big role in oil. Summer months often create more demand. Current month 10Y average is at +4.2%
It's important to note the environment we’re in. Catalyst news, a Fed trying to make changes, and geopolitical tensions still influence price.
- Alan
Bullish EdgeFinder score of +6. Institutional investors are net long and retail traders are heavily net short – a good confluence to see. Seasonality also plays a big role in oil. Summer months often create more demand. Current month 10Y average is at +4.2%
It's important to note the environment we’re in. Catalyst news, a Fed trying to make changes, and geopolitical tensions still influence price.
- Alan
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DXY – Do or Die for the Dollar
DXY found its way back to support at the $98 handle and is holding above it for now. Breaking its recent all-time low of $97 could cause DXY to flush lower. Holding above support could cause the DXY to continue trading range-bound.
US has been getting subpar data releases that are not helping its performance. Continued weakness in labor reports, like NFP this Friday, could be the catalyst to send the Dollar lower. On a positive note – Chinese State Media reported positive talks with the US, a positive thing for the US assets.
In my opinion, the DXY could be rangebound until NFP.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Misses in NFP data
- A concerned tone from the Fed
- Trade deals falling through
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Trade deals solidifying
- A hawkish Fed
- Alan
DXY found its way back to support at the $98 handle and is holding above it for now. Breaking its recent all-time low of $97 could cause DXY to flush lower. Holding above support could cause the DXY to continue trading range-bound.
US has been getting subpar data releases that are not helping its performance. Continued weakness in labor reports, like NFP this Friday, could be the catalyst to send the Dollar lower. On a positive note – Chinese State Media reported positive talks with the US, a positive thing for the US assets.
In my opinion, the DXY could be rangebound until NFP.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Misses in NFP data
- A concerned tone from the Fed
- Trade deals falling through
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Trade deals solidifying
- A hawkish Fed
- Alan
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