Gold Daily Chart:

Technicals here are fascinating. Let's go through them together!

1. It appears we are going to close (for the first time in a while) below some significant support around 3200 an ounce. This suggests we may be trending down.

2. A key trendline above current price has been broken, and a longer term trendline on gold still remains a good distance below currently price... suggesting a retest could lead to further downside

3. The 200 day moving average may be acting as a magnet, and could suggest a larger decline

Technicals: bearish!
Fundamentals: Mixed.

- Nick

USDJPY Daily Chart:

After 3 days of pulling back, we're seeing UJ retest a key longer term trendline, which also lines up with a previous break of resistance.

EdgeFinder also has a bullish bias on this pair, with some weakness in economic data out of Japan recently as the drag on Yen's economic score.

I'll be watching for possible longs.

- Nick

Check out this chart.

It's the Bitcoin to Gold ratio...

When it is trending higher, it suggests a risk on environment, as traders prefer bitcoin over gold.

When it is trending lower, it suggests a risk off environment, as traders flock to gold.

Notice anything?

By the way, if you'd like to get a trial of the EdgeFinder, we're offering 30 day trials here:
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Gold Daily Chart:

Bears still in control for now. 200 day moving average still looks like it is being targeted.

Today we are seeing a sharp reversal at the previous level of support we saw at 3220 on gold. In my view, technicals continue to look bearish in the short term.

Long term, I do believe there is probably some great buying opportunities at the 200 day moving average level, which gives us another 10-11% down from here.

- Nick

WARNING:

Put to call ratio has (for the first time in months) suggested that sentiment has become euphoric.

What this means:

Traders are much more aggressively buying calls, expecting further upside for stock market indices.

I personally view this as a contrarian bearish signal to stay cautious on stocks for the time being.

- Nick

S&P500 Daily Chart:

Looking for a retracement here as a possible buying opportunity.

EdgeFinder confirmation + nice technical reversal / breakout from the lows.

- Nick

I've noticed a lot of times when stock markets are going up, more people ask the question: "Why not just buy and hold?"

Recency bias is a very strong force in markets.

But remember: periods of poor performance in stocks do occur - and you could go a decade (or even multiple in the case of the great depression) before even returning to breakeven in your investments.

DXY Daily Chart:

Good morning traders! Moody's downgrades the US credit rating...

Dollar lower this morning, gold higher, as investors sell US assets in response.

Personally I don't think this will have too much of a lasting impact, as investors everywhere already knew that the national debt problem in the US was a big one.

Dollar may drift lower in the meantime. Resistance held at 101.50 on DXY. I think support should hold at the previous lows around 98.50

- Nick

Unemployment rate, last 4 years.

Something to note here: employment is still relatively strong, relative to historical averages around 5.7%.

Remember: the economy can handle a lot of stuff (including massive inflation in 2021-2022! ) as long as people remain employed and the economy is growing.

- Nick

By the way - if you'd like to try out our software tools to scan fundamental data & market sentiment data, apply for a trial here:

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Gold daily chart:

I am still neutral, but we are definitely at a decision point here in price action.

Are we headed back to highs, or down towards 3k?

US economy holding up ok. Trade deals looking promising.

But, uncertainty is still high - and Trump is a live wire. Momentum on the weekly chart still favors bulls.

I'm watching close, but staying on the sidelines at this time. - Nick

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USD/CHF finds support 0.83200, creating a new higher low on the Daily.
The Swiss weakened at 0.83200, a previous resistance level when investors flocked to safe havens. Price targeted the May 11th weekend gap and quickly snapped upward. The gap was left unfilled on the spot and futures market (by 0.9-2 pips depending on the spot broker) The SXY index filled the gap.

Last Friday Moody’s downgraded the US ratings to AA1 from AAA. It’s important to note that S&P and Fitch have also downgraded the US from AAA to AA1. In my opinion, the downgrade from Moody’s doesn’t change overall sentiment gradually. What it does mean is – US debtholders will seek a higher yield for holding a “riskier” asset. US10Y jumped 2% during the open.

My interpretation is that the Fed may be more hesitant to cut rates with yields remaining afloat. One of concerns for the Fed is that yields stay up while they cut rates.

🔴 Risks to consider for bulls:
- More uncertainty on the US dollar caused by a lack of tariff developments
- Continued upbeat readings for US economic data, giving the Fed confidence to continue the easing cycle

🔴 Risks to consider for bears:
- USDCHF holds above the support zone
- Tariff developments with more countries and solidified deals

-Alan