Retail sentiment shows gold is now the most shorted asset among individual traders, with the NASDAQ trailing close behind. Interestingly, while U.S. indices are broadly shorted by retail traders, the crowd is piling into long positions on the dollar, oil, and metals.
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Last Friday’s NFP report beat expectations but fell short compared to the previous month. Downward revisions to prior data indicate the labor market isn’t as strong as it seemed. While not weak enough to force a rate cut now, it could weigh into the Fed’s decision-making later this summer.
-Frank
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-Frank
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NASDAQ: Signs of Strength, but Caution Remains
The NASDAQ has regained momentum, climbing back to a bullish score of +11 on the EdgeFinder after briefly dipping into neutral territory. This rebound suggests growing confidence, but it’s still a fragile rally.
Roughly a month ago, the market tried to turn a corner, only to fizzle out. Today’s FOMC announcement may determine whether this is a legitimate reversal—or another false start. The Fed now faces a balancing act: inflation has eased since the last rate hike, but corporate earnings and consumer data point to a weakening economy. A dovish shift from Powell could be just the spark the market needs to extend this rally.
-Frank
Data from EdgeFinder
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The NASDAQ has regained momentum, climbing back to a bullish score of +11 on the EdgeFinder after briefly dipping into neutral territory. This rebound suggests growing confidence, but it’s still a fragile rally.
Roughly a month ago, the market tried to turn a corner, only to fizzle out. Today’s FOMC announcement may determine whether this is a legitimate reversal—or another false start. The Fed now faces a balancing act: inflation has eased since the last rate hike, but corporate earnings and consumer data point to a weakening economy. A dovish shift from Powell could be just the spark the market needs to extend this rally.
-Frank
Data from EdgeFinder
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Gold: Quick Surge, Mild Pullback
Gold (GLD) surged early this week, nearly reclaiming its all-time highs in just two trading sessions. But as equity markets tick higher this morning, gold is cooling off slightly—a typical sign of risk-on sentiment.
Investors will be listening closely for any hint that the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts later this year. If Powell acknowledges weakening growth while signaling more accommodative policy ahead, we could see renewed momentum in both equities and metals.
-Frank
Data from EdgeFinder
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Gold (GLD) surged early this week, nearly reclaiming its all-time highs in just two trading sessions. But as equity markets tick higher this morning, gold is cooling off slightly—a typical sign of risk-on sentiment.
Investors will be listening closely for any hint that the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts later this year. If Powell acknowledges weakening growth while signaling more accommodative policy ahead, we could see renewed momentum in both equities and metals.
-Frank
Data from EdgeFinder
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Trump Pushes for US-UK Trade Deal
Trump’s tariff playbook is back in focus as US-UK trade talks pick up. AMD gets a boost, gold stalls, and the S&P faces a critical test. We break down what’s moving the market—and where the smart money’s going.
👉 Read Full Update Here: https://www.a1trading.com/trade-deal-between-us-and-uk/
Trump’s tariff playbook is back in focus as US-UK trade talks pick up. AMD gets a boost, gold stalls, and the S&P faces a critical test. We break down what’s moving the market—and where the smart money’s going.
👉 Read Full Update Here: https://www.a1trading.com/trade-deal-between-us-and-uk/
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US Oil, 4H Chart:
Are we bottoming? Price does seem to be trying to. We have key resistance being tested at the $60 level, and a series of higher lows forming.
Fundamentally, we saw a strong jobs report from the US, as well as upbeat figures in both services and manufacturing PMIs, suggesting the economy may be in a better spot than most had expected.
This could continue to bolster demand for oil.
I'm bullish, watching for setups.
- Nick
Are we bottoming? Price does seem to be trying to. We have key resistance being tested at the $60 level, and a series of higher lows forming.
Fundamentally, we saw a strong jobs report from the US, as well as upbeat figures in both services and manufacturing PMIs, suggesting the economy may be in a better spot than most had expected.
This could continue to bolster demand for oil.
I'm bullish, watching for setups.
- Nick
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S&P500 Daily Chart:
Path of least resistance looks higher. Bulls in full control now, taking out several key levels of resistance, and rallying a massive 20% from the lows.
Bull run seems like it wants to continue.
However, while I am bullish - I think a pullback is very reasonable, and what I personally will be looking for in order to enter long positions.
China x USA trade negotiations went very positively, boosting expectations that global trade will not be flying off a cliff! While there is still potential ramifications from tariffs, the worst case scenario seems to be more confidently behind us - driving risk assets and the US dollar higher.
- Nick
Path of least resistance looks higher. Bulls in full control now, taking out several key levels of resistance, and rallying a massive 20% from the lows.
Bull run seems like it wants to continue.
However, while I am bullish - I think a pullback is very reasonable, and what I personally will be looking for in order to enter long positions.
China x USA trade negotiations went very positively, boosting expectations that global trade will not be flying off a cliff! While there is still potential ramifications from tariffs, the worst case scenario seems to be more confidently behind us - driving risk assets and the US dollar higher.
- Nick
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Gold Daily Chart:
With the relieved trade tensions between the US & China, gold took a major hit.
Remember: gold typically performs well when people are nervous globally, but in this case it works in reverse: confidence restored = less demand for gold as an alternative.
While we sit at major support in wat has been a very strong uptrend, I personally remain neutral and unwilling to take longs.
- Nick
With the relieved trade tensions between the US & China, gold took a major hit.
Remember: gold typically performs well when people are nervous globally, but in this case it works in reverse: confidence restored = less demand for gold as an alternative.
While we sit at major support in wat has been a very strong uptrend, I personally remain neutral and unwilling to take longs.
- Nick
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USD Daily Chart (DXY)
Reminder that tomorrow is CPI day!
While trade deals are certainly dominating the market right now, let's not forget the macro.
If we get a "hot" CPI print, we could see the dollar strength - pushing off further the possibility of fed cutting rates
If we get a "cool" CPI print, we could see the dollar soften. However, I see limited downside at this time based on the trade deals progress we're seeing.
Risk is to the upside, in my personal view.
- Nick
Reminder that tomorrow is CPI day!
While trade deals are certainly dominating the market right now, let's not forget the macro.
If we get a "hot" CPI print, we could see the dollar strength - pushing off further the possibility of fed cutting rates
If we get a "cool" CPI print, we could see the dollar soften. However, I see limited downside at this time based on the trade deals progress we're seeing.
Risk is to the upside, in my personal view.
- Nick
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