EdgeFinder, don't do this to me...


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Here is a quick update on my general outlook: (Nick)

- Tariffs have everyone terrified.
- Economic data for US (as seen in my previous posts) looks a little soft, and has people rushing to other currencies/stock markets
- Gold looks great in an environment where central banks are both buying it aggressively, and cutting interest rates...
- I think the Bank of Japan will hike rates further, which could introduce some risk

Long story short:
- Short term I am (and have been) cautious
- Long term, I think there are some great buy the dip opportunities forming in stocks
- Metals momentum is my favorite trade right now, until it fades

I view this as an attractive opportunity to slowly start building long positions in stocks I like.

- Nick

Unemployment claims have come in lower this week but remain within the same general range. So far this year, no report has fallen below the 200,000 threshold. Additionally, the latest ADP employment data significantly underperformed expectations, raising further concerns about the labor market’s resilience.
-Frank

Data from EdgeFinder
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To those who think they can easily predict the market direction ahead of the NFP report... There's something you should know.

At the world’s top financial institutions and hedge funds, teams of brilliant minds (quants, economists, and statisticians) work tirelessly, crunching vast datasets with cutting-edge models to forecast the numbers ahead of the release. Even with their talent, resources, and floors of brainpower, their predictions about jobs data are often off — sometimes wildly so.

The reason post news price spikes are so violent is because there is a degree of uncertainty! The market rapidly tries to price in the new information following the print.

A retail trader marking up technical charts is not going to be able to better predict jobs data than the smartest minds with access to powerful data sets and quantitative models.

The good news? You don't have to! I like to wait for the numbers to come out, take some time to understand what they mean for the economy / macro context, and find setups that have a decent risk/reward.

This often means trailing the big guys and their moves... rather than trying to call the markets direction before we get the data. That is pure gambling in my opinion.

Be safe. Today is account blowing day for many...

- Nick

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S&P500 Daily Chart:

Stocks seem to be holding the 200 day moving average 👀

Could this be the bottom, and could we see a stronger bounce next week?

I remain a bit cautious, with weak NFP data. But - price action does look strong here.

- Nick

CANADA & AUSTRALIA economic heatmaps just dropped 👀

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Chart of the Day: XAU/USD 🔥

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📉 NAS100's Make-or-Break Moment: A Buying Opportunity?
The NAS100 index is undergoing its third test of a crucial support zone established in 2023. With investor uncertainty and market anxiety running high, this could be a pivotal buying opportunity for indices. A potential turnaround may emerge within the $19,000-$20,000 range, contingent on two key factors:

Progress in tariff negotiations signaling relief and cooperation between the US and its trade partners.
CPI and Core inflation data meeting or coming in below expectations.
Failure to achieve these outcomes may result in a break below the trend line, potentially driving NAS100 closer to the $17,000 range.

👉 Today's market outlook also covers gold’s price action, smart money positioning, and retail trader sentiment. Are markets gearing up for a major shift? Read the full breakdown here
-Frank

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