Wednesday is yet another decision on interest rates, and analysts are largely expecting interest to remain unchanged at 4.25%. Higher rates for longer is not ideal for the metal, and this is why we are seeing a drop in price. If the Fed does not sound aggressive on cuts anymore, it could get really bearish for gold.
We could see price come all the way back down to a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe. This would be about a 3% decline from the highs. Risk appetite is still very present in the markets, so it's almost as if a hawkish Fed is going to hurt gold the most if they pivot that way on Wednesday.
-Frank
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We could see price come all the way back down to a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe. This would be about a 3% decline from the highs. Risk appetite is still very present in the markets, so it's almost as if a hawkish Fed is going to hurt gold the most if they pivot that way on Wednesday.
-Frank
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Retail sentiment has shifted to heavy long on SPX, gold and oil. At the same time, the put/call ratio on DOW is heavy bearish from retail traders, as the index falls to 84% short.
-Frank
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-Frank
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An equally mixed reading is coming from smart money as well. They are long dollar, yen, NASDAQ, DOW. But they are also short SPX and RUSSELL. So it seems they are getting selective week-to-week on where to allocate their positions.
-Frank
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-Frank
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A mostly healthy US economy could suggest that the Fed should not cut anymore for the time being. If we are struggling with inflationary pressures, this may be the best move for 2025. Keeping rates as they are to battle inflation in hopes for better than expected jobs data may be the best thing for the US right now.
-Frank
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-Frank
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Gold Daily Chart:
Is this the top for gold, or just the beginning?
Price near all time highs could actually signal a larger breakout is closer than we think. With geopolitical uncertainty still very real, gold could potentially be the safe haven investors are looking for in 2025.
Stocks have had a very strong run, and many investors are worried about high valuations. Perhaps gold offers diversification and stability!
Technicals look strong, looking for a larger breakout and some softness in US economic data as a signal for longs.
- Nick
Is this the top for gold, or just the beginning?
Price near all time highs could actually signal a larger breakout is closer than we think. With geopolitical uncertainty still very real, gold could potentially be the safe haven investors are looking for in 2025.
Stocks have had a very strong run, and many investors are worried about high valuations. Perhaps gold offers diversification and stability!
Technicals look strong, looking for a larger breakout and some softness in US economic data as a signal for longs.
- Nick
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SPX500
Markets come down in premarket trading as we await the Fed decision this afternoon on interest rates. Odds are nearly 100% towards another pause in rate cuts, not something investors want to see. Although a pause is probably the right move from the Fed, the stock market might take a hit for a short period. Demand is still prevalent though, and yields are dropping too.
-Frank
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Markets come down in premarket trading as we await the Fed decision this afternoon on interest rates. Odds are nearly 100% towards another pause in rate cuts, not something investors want to see. Although a pause is probably the right move from the Fed, the stock market might take a hit for a short period. Demand is still prevalent though, and yields are dropping too.
-Frank
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Gold
Gold may have formed a head and shoulders pattern here on the 4H timeframe before the rate decision. Keeping rates higher for longer will likely put a damper on gold optimism as the metal trades directly against the strength of the dollar. What is more important are the forecasts going forward. We will get some insight on where Powell thinks rates should go based on the inflationary and labor environment. To sum this up, less rate cut expectations in the future will be bearish for gold.
-Frank
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Gold may have formed a head and shoulders pattern here on the 4H timeframe before the rate decision. Keeping rates higher for longer will likely put a damper on gold optimism as the metal trades directly against the strength of the dollar. What is more important are the forecasts going forward. We will get some insight on where Powell thinks rates should go based on the inflationary and labor environment. To sum this up, less rate cut expectations in the future will be bearish for gold.
-Frank
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Trading tip of the day:
Great trading doesn't necessarily mean making a lot of money quickly.
It means keeping your drawdowns to a minimum, and consistent growth over time.
Happy Thursday traders!
- Nick
Great trading doesn't necessarily mean making a lot of money quickly.
It means keeping your drawdowns to a minimum, and consistent growth over time.
Happy Thursday traders!
- Nick
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
With a strong economy, and institutional money still bullish on tech stocks, I still see more upside as the path of least resistance for NAS.
Fighting this uptrend has been a painful ride for short sellers.
Bullish trigger would be a breakout of this consolidation, and then looking for pullbacks.
- Nick
With a strong economy, and institutional money still bullish on tech stocks, I still see more upside as the path of least resistance for NAS.
Fighting this uptrend has been a painful ride for short sellers.
Bullish trigger would be a breakout of this consolidation, and then looking for pullbacks.
- Nick