NZDUSD is the top bearish pair on our list right now for the same reasons as USDCAD. Since the rest of the world is trying to ease as well, a Fed pause in 2025 would keep the value of the dollar higher than other countries' currencies. Just from looking at the EF score, we can tell that the economics in the US are healthier than in New Zealand. So less rate cuts to work on bringing inflation down will only help the USD.
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Gold is still a neutral reading because of two contradicting signals. The bullish signal is that stagflation poses a severe threat in 2025, an indicator of extreme bullishness for the metal. However, the Fed has decided to keep from devaluing the dollar for the time being in order to battle inflation again. So gold is kind of stuck in this uncertain market where demand is hesitant.
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Retail sentiment is leaning back into metals, commodities, small caps and Dow. Meanwhile, other global indices are in the neutral camp and the only asset being sold by the crowd is USDCAD, which has been our top bullish pair on the EdgeFinder.
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USD, CHF, NIKKEI, bond notes, and SPX were the top bought assets last week. Meanwhile, NASDAQ and RUSSELL were neutral. Smart money actually sold blue chips last week suggesting that demand is going into a broader market index such as SPX while leaving tech, small caps and blue chips out of the equation.
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The 10 year treasury yield rose this month due to the Fed's cautious stance on inflation and lesser concerns over the labor market. Rate cuts were meant to save jobs but at the cost of inflation rising. Now the Fed needs to rebalance and gauge when they think the next cut is necessary. Next year, forecasts only show one or two more by 2026. Treasuries are now losing demand as yields continue to climb and will likely keep rising in 2025.
-Frank
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-Frank
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Rising yields is bringing rise to the dollar while hurting assets such as Bitcoin, gold, stocks. We could be looking at the peak price of Bitcoin for now after an incredible run to $108,000 followed by profit taking. My target was $110,000 and we fell just short of it this month. At this point, it seems to me that the rally is probably fizzling out, and $110K is no longer a target I'm looking for. What we're looking at could possibly be a head and shoulders pattern on the 1D timeframe with support at $90,000 and much lower to $73,000.
- Frank
- Frank
The crowd is long Dow, gold, RUSSELL, oil. This suggests that retail is buying everything as they are broadening out into different areas of the market.
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Last week's activity composed of buying Treasuries, stock indices, bitcoin and mostly, the dollar. Today, however, there isn't much happening in the market price action-wise. There is hardly any volatility today as we close up the first hour of trading.
-Frank
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-Frank
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UE claims came in lower for the second week in a row and could be keeping stocks afloat today. Claims have been relatively the same for some time, but it could serve as volatile news as it is the only USD news this week.
-Frank
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-Frank
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
Nike ($NKE) recently reported decent earnings, and I wanted to share this chart with everyone.
What you're looking at is the price/earnings ratio over time for Nike, showing that relative to its own history, NKE is trading at a lower than average valuation.
Nike is a stock pick I like going into 2025, as it has been beaten down badly in the last 2 years due to rising competitors like Hoka.
However, with a recent CEO shift (an insider from Nike taking on the role), I think they can pull off a strong turnaround story in coming years.
I will be looking to build a position on this stock going into the new year.
- Nick
What you're looking at is the price/earnings ratio over time for Nike, showing that relative to its own history, NKE is trading at a lower than average valuation.
Nike is a stock pick I like going into 2025, as it has been beaten down badly in the last 2 years due to rising competitors like Hoka.
However, with a recent CEO shift (an insider from Nike taking on the role), I think they can pull off a strong turnaround story in coming years.
I will be looking to build a position on this stock going into the new year.
- Nick
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Floating 104 pips on USDCHF π I will potentially be taking profits on this move soon. - Nick
Nevermind! We just hit target π
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As we wrap up 2024 and look ahead to 2025, itβs the perfect time to level up your trading game. Why not kick off the new year with the resources and strategies to help you succeed?
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Stocks, dollar, bonds, oil and gold are in demand for smart money according to last week's COT report. Meanwhile, NZD, JPY, AUD and ZAR have been sold. Despite the sell off we've seen in the stock markets, smart money is buying up risk assets.
-Frank
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-Frank
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