NASDAQ
NAS is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder so far at a +7 bullish reading. Markets are slightly down this morning just before the FOMC meeting and rate decision at 2 pm EST. There is an overwhelming expectation that we will see a 25 bps cut again, but that does not give the green light for stocks. We will have to listen closely to what Powell says about monetary policy in 2025. It seems like we may be expecting less cuts in the new year with inflation being stubborn and labor numbers dropping. In all, today’s meeting will probably not be that dovish. It would not be surprising to see the index pull back 4-5% over the span of a few weeks to end the year which could end up being a good opportunity for buyers come January.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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NAS is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder so far at a +7 bullish reading. Markets are slightly down this morning just before the FOMC meeting and rate decision at 2 pm EST. There is an overwhelming expectation that we will see a 25 bps cut again, but that does not give the green light for stocks. We will have to listen closely to what Powell says about monetary policy in 2025. It seems like we may be expecting less cuts in the new year with inflation being stubborn and labor numbers dropping. In all, today’s meeting will probably not be that dovish. It would not be surprising to see the index pull back 4-5% over the span of a few weeks to end the year which could end up being a good opportunity for buyers come January.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Gold
Gold continues to look choppy between $2,600-2,720s which is a rather large consolidation zone. Trading these swings would have considerable changes in value. If the Fed mentions not wanting to cut as much in 2025, it might be bearish for gold as well. However, if we get a confirmation on stagflation from economists, this could pump demand back into the metal as investors will dump the dollar in search of the metal or even crypto.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Gold continues to look choppy between $2,600-2,720s which is a rather large consolidation zone. Trading these swings would have considerable changes in value. If the Fed mentions not wanting to cut as much in 2025, it might be bearish for gold as well. However, if we get a confirmation on stagflation from economists, this could pump demand back into the metal as investors will dump the dollar in search of the metal or even crypto.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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📉 Breaking News: Fed Cuts Interest Rates Again!
Today, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
This marks the third consecutive rate cut this year, signaling the Fed's ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy.
Key Takeaways:
📉 Rate Cut: 0.25 percentage point reduction, now at 4.25%–4.5%.
🏦 Fed's Stance: Indicates a slower pace of easing in 2025 to balance economic growth and inflation control.
📈 Market Reaction: Following the announcement, U.S. stocks declined, and the dollar strengthened, reflecting investor sentiment and market adjustments.
Today, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
This marks the third consecutive rate cut this year, signaling the Fed's ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy.
Key Takeaways:
📉 Rate Cut: 0.25 percentage point reduction, now at 4.25%–4.5%.
🏦 Fed's Stance: Indicates a slower pace of easing in 2025 to balance economic growth and inflation control.
📈 Market Reaction: Following the announcement, U.S. stocks declined, and the dollar strengthened, reflecting investor sentiment and market adjustments.
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The VIX spiked massively today as the market reacted to what felt like a confirmation from Powell that we are likely on pause for rate cuts until further notice.
Guiding just 2 cuts for next year, high risk stocks sold off very hard today.
For me personally, being on the sidelines and cash heavy was very difficult the last few weeks.
Being patient and not chasing stocks is a lesson I've learnt the hard way too many times...
I took a position today in the Nasdaq near the closing low, and will now begin to find some opportunities - especially if the market continues to sell down.
Feeling a bit vindicated in my cautionary language the last few weeks...
- Nick
Guiding just 2 cuts for next year, high risk stocks sold off very hard today.
For me personally, being on the sidelines and cash heavy was very difficult the last few weeks.
Being patient and not chasing stocks is a lesson I've learnt the hard way too many times...
I took a position today in the Nasdaq near the closing low, and will now begin to find some opportunities - especially if the market continues to sell down.
Feeling a bit vindicated in my cautionary language the last few weeks...
- Nick
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NASDAQ got kicked off the strongest bullish score on our list after yesterday's 5% drop from the highs. Investors were hoping for an aggressive Fed to cut back down to under 3% in 2025, but it looks like it won't be happening. As a result, we might not be seeing the euphoric market that we thought next year. If that is the case, 2025 could be another choppy year littered with uncertainties. Today, we could see a similar move to yesterday if this bounce is a bull trap. Further support is around $20,700 if we continue to see a drop.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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The main fear gauge used in the markets is the VIX which spike over 70% yesterday in the last two hours of trading. Although this is a bad sign for the bulls, there is a common pattern for every time the VIX breaks above $22 in the past year. Each time we get a spike in volatility, it is shortly quelled before buyers step back in. The VIX dropped 20% after flying through $28. Although volatility may drop, bearish sentiment may linger in the stock market.
-Frank
-Frank
This is the interest rate forecast going into Q3 of 2025 in the US. Rates are depicted to drop to 4.25% (which is only a 25 bps move from here) and remain there until perhaps Q4. Powell said only 2 more rate cuts are expected for now.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USDCAD is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder now as the dollar gains more demand from investors who are expecting interest rates to be elevated for longer. This news caused risk sentiment to slow down and money to flow back into the dollar.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Data from the EdgeFinder
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