Gold is no longer as bullish as it once was earlier in the year. Without any serious geopolitical issues, gold might not have a great reason to rise. And with stick inflation, the Fed may need to reconsider cutting rates in 2025.
Demand for the dollar is already on the rise due to the anticipation of higher rates for longer and a somewhat stable economy. Gold has outperformed the market this year, and up until late October, it was the asset to buy. However, it appears that the metal has reached a peak for now.
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Demand for the dollar is already on the rise due to the anticipation of higher rates for longer and a somewhat stable economy. Gold has outperformed the market this year, and up until late October, it was the asset to buy. However, it appears that the metal has reached a peak for now.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Bitcoin is getting closer to my $110,000 price target which is where I said could be a major decision point. This because the crypto will either reject off a 7 year trend line as it has always done, or it will break above and confirm new uncharted territory. This sudden rise today could be in line with the fears of stagflation next year as inflation stays elevated and jobs data weakens.
- Frank
- Frank
A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
Sentiment is looking very interesting right now for forex traders. Everyone seems to be shorting the rally in the USD... This has not been working very well for them... do you think retail will continue holding the bag on the USD push? - Nick
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Does this chart make anyone else nervous? This is the Chinese 10 YR yield chart, and it is signaling some concerning outlook for the Chinese economy. This keeps me a little hesitant on getting overly bullish on oil and other industrial commodities for now...…
Just to elaborate...
When yields fall, it often signals that investors are more cautious about the economy. They might be seeking the safety of government bonds, which are perceived as low-risk investments, leading to an increase in bond prices and a decrease in yields. This can indicate expectations of slower economic growth or even a looming recession. For instance, declining yields have been associated with investor wariness or a flight to safety during times of economic uncertainty.
Falling yields can be a response to or anticipation of monetary policy easing by the central bank, such as lowering the policy rate. This action is generally taken to stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper. A decrease in yields might suggest that the central bank could cut rates further to support economic growth. However, if yields fall too low, it might also reflect expectations of prolonged low inflation or deflationary pressures
- Nick
When yields fall, it often signals that investors are more cautious about the economy. They might be seeking the safety of government bonds, which are perceived as low-risk investments, leading to an increase in bond prices and a decrease in yields. This can indicate expectations of slower economic growth or even a looming recession. For instance, declining yields have been associated with investor wariness or a flight to safety during times of economic uncertainty.
Falling yields can be a response to or anticipation of monetary policy easing by the central bank, such as lowering the policy rate. This action is generally taken to stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper. A decrease in yields might suggest that the central bank could cut rates further to support economic growth. However, if yields fall too low, it might also reflect expectations of prolonged low inflation or deflationary pressures
- Nick
Retail sentiment shows there is a bullish bias for DOW, gold, RUSSELL, USOil and Silver. The neutral camp has NASDAQ, S&P and NIKKEI. The crowd is also bullish Bitcoin which could suggest a reversal coming soon.
-Frank
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-Frank
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Smart money is long yen and the US indices. Meanwhile, NIKKEI is the only bearish index in the market right now. Bitcoin finally saw some demand from institutional activity although it was not very much of an added position.
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Despite a recent beat in NFP ten days ago, the trend for revisions has gone down significantly since the same time last year. The fact inflation persists while jobs declines is why investors are scared of stagflation, looking for gold and bitcoin plays, and scared of the Fed.
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
NVDA Daily Chart:
Technical setup alert... Price is pulling back to the 100 day moving average.
This is a rare thing for NVIDIA these days, also tagging support around 128 per share.
Is this the low, or will we test the 200 day moving average?
- Nick
Technical setup alert... Price is pulling back to the 100 day moving average.
This is a rare thing for NVIDIA these days, also tagging support around 128 per share.
Is this the low, or will we test the 200 day moving average?
- Nick
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NASDAQ
NAS is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder so far at a +7 bullish reading. Markets are slightly down this morning just before the FOMC meeting and rate decision at 2 pm EST. There is an overwhelming expectation that we will see a 25 bps cut again, but that does not give the green light for stocks. We will have to listen closely to what Powell says about monetary policy in 2025. It seems like we may be expecting less cuts in the new year with inflation being stubborn and labor numbers dropping. In all, today’s meeting will probably not be that dovish. It would not be surprising to see the index pull back 4-5% over the span of a few weeks to end the year which could end up being a good opportunity for buyers come January.
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NAS is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder so far at a +7 bullish reading. Markets are slightly down this morning just before the FOMC meeting and rate decision at 2 pm EST. There is an overwhelming expectation that we will see a 25 bps cut again, but that does not give the green light for stocks. We will have to listen closely to what Powell says about monetary policy in 2025. It seems like we may be expecting less cuts in the new year with inflation being stubborn and labor numbers dropping. In all, today’s meeting will probably not be that dovish. It would not be surprising to see the index pull back 4-5% over the span of a few weeks to end the year which could end up being a good opportunity for buyers come January.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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