The crypto craze continues towards the end of the year as Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 which served as many analysts psychological "price targets". And now that we're here, what's next for the giant? Here are some reasons to stay cautiously bullish:
Bitcoin's score jumped five points since the start of December after being in the negatives from mid to late November. The coin hit $103K late last night after Trump announced Paul Atkins head of SEC. Atkins is known for being pro-Bitcoin and will likely have crypto friendly policies.
BTCUSD is climbing higher in the $103,000s at the time of writing this, the highest price it's ever been in history. If we zoom out to the 1W timeframe, there is a long term trend line that has called the third peak in late 2021. There are a few things scenarios that can happen here could be we get the test at the top of the trend line and pullback, or we test and break the trend line. If the crypto can break the 7-year resistance zone, it could result in further growth into uncharted territory.
-Frank
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BTCUSD is climbing higher in the $103,000s at the time of writing this, the highest price it's ever been in history. If we zoom out to the 1W timeframe, there is a long term trend line that has called the third peak in late 2021. There are a few things scenarios that can happen here could be we get the test at the top of the trend line and pullback, or we test and break the trend line. If the crypto can break the 7-year resistance zone, it could result in further growth into uncharted territory.
-Frank
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When Bitcoin goes up, so do the altcoins. Ethereum is the second-most known crypto out there that acts almost as a leveraged version of Bitcoin. From the November lows, BTCUSD gained 55% to the new all time highs. In the same timeframe, Ethereum moved 67% which is outpacing its predecessor. The alt coin is nearing summer highs this year and resistance from 2021. The highest level it's been was around $4,870.
- Frank
- Frank
Blue chips take the reins again after the trade swings to dividend plays. The put/call ratio has been relatively flat over the past month or so with a slight lean towards bullishness. Seasonality is strong for the index this month while we wait for NFP tomorrow. This week has been softer than expected in terms of ADP coming in light and unemployment claims higher. What could cause a retracement in the market is if NFP comes in lighter, revisions are lighter, and/or unemployment rate ticks up.
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Despite a considerable move to all time highs, smart money is still split in sentiment. This could lead us to thinking that the recent rally to $100k could be retail-led which would indicate that price is unstable at these highs.
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Gold is Up Before CPI
With CPI tomorrow, gold opened up green and is heading higher towards resistance near $2,700. Investors could be anticipating a higher number tomorrow which would be a bad sign for two reasons. Other than the Fed losing the inflationary battle, a higher CPI would look more like stagflation with our current jobs numbers. The US now has 4.2% unemployment, 0.1% higher than last month (which is significant). We have seen 4% or higher since May of this year. And while CPI was on its way down, the trend was broken in November when we jumped from 2.4 to 2.6% inflation.
So now there's this question whether or not the Fed is still winning, whether inflation will return to 2%, whether jobs can maintain steady or continue to cool. If we get a higher CPI and/or Core, gold is likely to break over the falling trend line and back towards $2,720s.
- Frank
With CPI tomorrow, gold opened up green and is heading higher towards resistance near $2,700. Investors could be anticipating a higher number tomorrow which would be a bad sign for two reasons. Other than the Fed losing the inflationary battle, a higher CPI would look more like stagflation with our current jobs numbers. The US now has 4.2% unemployment, 0.1% higher than last month (which is significant). We have seen 4% or higher since May of this year. And while CPI was on its way down, the trend was broken in November when we jumped from 2.4 to 2.6% inflation.
So now there's this question whether or not the Fed is still winning, whether inflation will return to 2%, whether jobs can maintain steady or continue to cool. If we get a higher CPI and/or Core, gold is likely to break over the falling trend line and back towards $2,720s.
- Frank
NASDAQ Strong at the Highs
The pro of being in a bull market is that the market goes up notching new highs every month, and the con is that we never know what could break the uptrend. I think the biggest fear is not a bear market, but the fear of how big a retracement will be before hitting new highs again. Higher CPI will probably take us lower towards $20,700, although a pull back will probably not get that steep and turn back to the upside around $21,000.
- Frank
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The pro of being in a bull market is that the market goes up notching new highs every month, and the con is that we never know what could break the uptrend. I think the biggest fear is not a bear market, but the fear of how big a retracement will be before hitting new highs again. Higher CPI will probably take us lower towards $20,700, although a pull back will probably not get that steep and turn back to the upside around $21,000.
- Frank
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SPX and NAS are getting closer to being sold by retail traders. DOW is also mixed while oil, gold and small caps are bought. The only asset clearly getting sold is USDCAD.
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Looks like smart money is still piling into the yen while adding the tech index and gold to the list. Meanwhile, NIKKEI is the top biggest seller, no surprise there with yen at the top. SPX, RUSSELL and DOW are following close behind the Japanese stock index.
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The core of our problem is here in jobs data. It's okay to see less jobs added when interest rates are higher. But now the Fed is loosening up its policy and cutting rates. Yet unemployment rates continue to rise. Investors are patiently anticipating the UE rate to drop back below 4%, but that is a big 'if'. CPI can't keep rising if unemployment is going to rise or else it means stagflation.
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Gold
Good news for the metal after CPI numbers came in as expected. Usually expected results are not a cause for volatility, but it brought inflation higher for the second month. With an uptick in unemployment and inflation, investors may start to get concerned over a stagflation environment. Gold broke out of a key resistance level and may test the $2,720s.
-Frank
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Good news for the metal after CPI numbers came in as expected. Usually expected results are not a cause for volatility, but it brought inflation higher for the second month. With an uptick in unemployment and inflation, investors may start to get concerned over a stagflation environment. Gold broke out of a key resistance level and may test the $2,720s.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USOil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. The EdgeFinder still gives this asset a neutral score which may suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.
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Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. The EdgeFinder still gives this asset a neutral score which may suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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