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Fed minutes came out basically telling us nothing once again. There are worries of cutting too aggressively and bringing back inflation pressures. There are also worries of not cutting enough if labor market continues to cool. This is the Fed's way of saying it could go either way, which is no surprise to anyone. Stock prices are relatively unchanged, gold caught a bounce and the 2 year yield is flat on the day.
An outcome that I think will happen is that yields have bottomed out for a while, but there is no inherent pressure on stocks. Gold's bull rally will likely slow due to the uncertainty around the aggressiveness of monetary easing. Stocks could likely continue with what they are doing in this melt up. Minutes is not a big catalyst for the markets. Tomorrow's GDP number is the only thing I think to be important this week as it shows us another glance at economic health.
- Frank
An outcome that I think will happen is that yields have bottomed out for a while, but there is no inherent pressure on stocks. Gold's bull rally will likely slow due to the uncertainty around the aggressiveness of monetary easing. Stocks could likely continue with what they are doing in this melt up. Minutes is not a big catalyst for the markets. Tomorrow's GDP number is the only thing I think to be important this week as it shows us another glance at economic health.
- Frank
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S&P 500
The S&P is sitting at all time highs on the 1D timeframe following yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Today we will get unemployment claims a day early along with GDP numbers at 8:30 am EST. In this shortened week of trading, we might be seeing a slowdown in volatility so the intraday ranges are likely to be smaller than the usual. We will likely not get any major moves this week, but we should still look for any major changes in economic output from GDP. These numbers, along with Black Friday sales, could be a catalyst next week.
- Frank
BLACK FRIDAY ENDS SOON
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The S&P is sitting at all time highs on the 1D timeframe following yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Today we will get unemployment claims a day early along with GDP numbers at 8:30 am EST. In this shortened week of trading, we might be seeing a slowdown in volatility so the intraday ranges are likely to be smaller than the usual. We will likely not get any major moves this week, but we should still look for any major changes in economic output from GDP. These numbers, along with Black Friday sales, could be a catalyst next week.
- Frank
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USD/JPY
UJ is coming down towards the 149.500s support level today on one of the most bearish days since September. This could seem like a risk-off alert, but yields are dropping and so is the VIX. Sentiment could be momentarily going heavy risk-on this week and next as we get closer to closing out the month.
- Frank
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UJ is coming down towards the 149.500s support level today on one of the most bearish days since September. This could seem like a risk-off alert, but yields are dropping and so is the VIX. Sentiment could be momentarily going heavy risk-on this week and next as we get closer to closing out the month.
- Frank
BLACK FRIDAY ENDS SOON
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Gold, Daily Chart:
Although not as exciting - I remain neutral on gold at this time.
From a price action perspective, I think we need to wait for a breakout one way or the other.
Levels I'm watching:
- A break of 2700 or 2560
Fundamentals:
- Election drama is behind us
- Peace negotiations going seemingly well in Israel
- US economy looking robust.
Bearish fundamentals, technicals very mixed.
If I take a trade, it will be shared in VIP.
- Nick
Although not as exciting - I remain neutral on gold at this time.
From a price action perspective, I think we need to wait for a breakout one way or the other.
Levels I'm watching:
- A break of 2700 or 2560
Fundamentals:
- Election drama is behind us
- Peace negotiations going seemingly well in Israel
- US economy looking robust.
Bearish fundamentals, technicals very mixed.
If I take a trade, it will be shared in VIP.
- Nick
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Thank you for the thoughtful review Fabian!
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Thank you for the thoughtful review Fabian!
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Gold's score has been creeping higher over the past few days which could indicate that investors are betting on a slow down in the US labor market this Friday. The metal is in between a level of support and resistance at $2,600 and $2,670s. It looks like there was a head and shoulders pattern on the 1D timeframe that caused the initial drop, but price has remained steady for the past several trading days. Worse NFP and unemployment numbers could result in a rise in demand for the metal.
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After the crypto's meteoric spike to the upside, Bitcoin's price struggles just under the $100,000 mark. Risk sentiment has not declined in the stock market, but signs of diminishing optimism in the crypto market are very much present. Last week's candle closed in a bearish way suggesting buyer's exhaustion. Although investor may be optimistic on Bitcoin, it could be out of buyers in the short term.
- Frank
- Frank
Metals have been on the top of the list for some time. Oil and gold are also hot commodities among the crowd, meaning that gold might not be ready to return to the highs yet and oil might not be ready to recover from the lows.
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On the other side of sentiment, it seems COT and retail are in agreement on the direction of gold and oil. The largest positions to the upside are yen, NASDAQ and oil. Meanwhile, they are selling out of small caps, NIKKEI, DOW and treasuries.
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US Manufacturing PMI data came out today higher than expected and rose by a substantial amount from last month. However, in a primarily services economy, this number does not matter as much as Services PMI on Wednesday. These are a few of the key metrics to come out this week as we await jobs data starting with JOLTS tomorrow.
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
Price looks poised for a breakout, now that we've returned to all time highs.
Fundamentally, we have a decently strong US economy, the fed still plans to reduce interest rates, and inflation is much more under control.
Technically, I will be looking for either a break and retest of the highs, or a pullback down towards 20,400.
Feeling bullish...
- Nick
Price looks poised for a breakout, now that we've returned to all time highs.
Fundamentally, we have a decently strong US economy, the fed still plans to reduce interest rates, and inflation is much more under control.
Technically, I will be looking for either a break and retest of the highs, or a pullback down towards 20,400.
Feeling bullish...
- Nick
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