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Similarly to the markets rising before the Trump victory, yields may be pricing in a less dovish tone from the Fed tomorrow. Expectations are still near 100% that the Fed will cut by some amount, but maybe bonds are telling us not to expect too much easing from the Fed. Especially since inflation has not moved comfortably where analysts expected by now, we might not have the green light on consecutive interest rate cuts in 2025.
Judging by the stock market's reaction, we could be looking at a period of substantial growth. However, this type of environment often leads to more spending, higher circulation of the dollar, thus higher inflation. Entering into a period of higher growth at the cost of higher inflation is not a bad thing, but it may mean that the Fed doesn't need to cut. If there's nothing to save (jobs, GDP, consumer spending...), then there might not be a reason to ease on policy much more.
- Frank
Judging by the stock market's reaction, we could be looking at a period of substantial growth. However, this type of environment often leads to more spending, higher circulation of the dollar, thus higher inflation. Entering into a period of higher growth at the cost of higher inflation is not a bad thing, but it may mean that the Fed doesn't need to cut. If there's nothing to save (jobs, GDP, consumer spending...), then there might not be a reason to ease on policy much more.
- Frank
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🗳️ Election Results Are In! 🗳️
Nick dropped a new video breaking down the election results and what they mean for traders like you. 📈
Curious how these changes could impact your trading strategy? He’s got you covered with insights and key takeaways!
Catch the full breakdown here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANTtE9PcSXA
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Nick dropped a new video breaking down the election results and what they mean for traders like you. 📈
Curious how these changes could impact your trading strategy? He’s got you covered with insights and key takeaways!
Catch the full breakdown here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANTtE9PcSXA
P.S. Want to take advantage of the market opportunities? Open an account with our sponsor, Vantage Markets, and start trading smarter here!
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TRUMP: Part 2... (What Happens Now?)
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I had my biggest trades of the year this week.
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What seemed like an unstoppable force ended up giving back weeks of gains in only a short amount of time. Yesterday was the worst day for gold in the past several months. What seems to be the cause behind the drop were clued by higher bond yields. The actual rate decision will not affect gold in the longer run, rather the Fed statement will.
It seemed that Powell was clear about cutting rates to help the jobs market - at the expense of higher inflation. If we do anticipate a period of growth, there may not be any reason to cut rates further. Spending, circulation and more jobs may bring back the inflation issue. And this could prevent the Fed from cutting rates, thus less bullish for gold.
- Frank
It seemed that Powell was clear about cutting rates to help the jobs market - at the expense of higher inflation. If we do anticipate a period of growth, there may not be any reason to cut rates further. Spending, circulation and more jobs may bring back the inflation issue. And this could prevent the Fed from cutting rates, thus less bullish for gold.
- Frank
Is this a Legitimate Warning Sign?
US treasury notes are now leaning bullish as the EF scores dip into positive territory. Meanwhile, the treasury yields flew higher. Notes and yields have a negative correlation. As yields go higher, the price of the note decreases, and vice-versa.
Higher yields suggest the Fed won't be cutting as aggressively due to an anticipated period of growth. Wherever yields are heading will directly affect gold, so it's important to hear what the Fed plans to do with interest rates going forward. If they sound like 25-50 bps are too much to cut each meeting, it may cause yields to go higher/gold to go down.
- Frank
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US treasury notes are now leaning bullish as the EF scores dip into positive territory. Meanwhile, the treasury yields flew higher. Notes and yields have a negative correlation. As yields go higher, the price of the note decreases, and vice-versa.
Higher yields suggest the Fed won't be cutting as aggressively due to an anticipated period of growth. Wherever yields are heading will directly affect gold, so it's important to hear what the Fed plans to do with interest rates going forward. If they sound like 25-50 bps are too much to cut each meeting, it may cause yields to go higher/gold to go down.
- Frank
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Retail suggests that they might start shorting the markets here at the highs. All the indices seem to have fallen in bullish positioning as all are neutral and RUSSELL is the least long asset in the long assets. The crowd is still buying gold and oil.
- Frank
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The crowd seems to be getting more attracted to the metal after its initial drop from the highs. Meanwhile, COT history suggests that smart money is getting out. You can see that after COT was reduced in late October, price peaked the next week and is now on a decline.
- Frank
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- Frank
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Want to see an example of a trade we shared this year in the A1 Trading Community? 😏👀
Nick's S&P500 Trade Breakdown
August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
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August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
🏆 Trade shared with VIP members! Get access to trades like this:
Use code TGVIP for 40% off VIP signals
👉 Join here: https://a1trading.com/vip