S&P 500
The S&P is still rangebound just above previous all time highs and $5,600. There is no real news coming out until later this week, so price action will probably stay within these boundaries until CPI, if CPI causes a major move. It’s probable to only see limited upside from the gains we already made in premarket, as well as limited downside.
-Frank

USOil
Oil falls over 2% this morning after briefly testing the 200 DMA on the 1D timeframe. This is also happening while Chinese stocks abruptly tumble after less optimism on stimulus in the economy. News from Beijing told us that authorities will not be unveiling more stimulus into the economy which caused a 13% drop in price on the CHINA50 index.
-Frank

Gold
Gold at break even at the start of the day as investors try to interpret demand this week. This is the only metal that is mostly unfazed by the recent news in China as silver and other metals drop. The metal could still retrace on weakness in China, and the $2,600 support level could still be tested.
-Frank

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USOIL Daily Chart:

Looking strong for a possible move higher.

Stops below structure, trade is off to a nice start! called out this morning in discord.

- Nick

Gold is now printing a bearish score on he EdgeFinder post CPI news in the US. What brought so much demand into this metal earlier in the year was the expectation of a number of 50 bps rate cuts to weaken the dollar over time. Now that inflation proves to be more sticky than wanted, the Fed may have to reel back on heavy cuts in the future.

Despite oil's major tumble in the summer, CPI y/y managed to come in 0.1% higher than expectations. Core prices did not move, but were still higher than expectations. Core does not include food and energy into the metric, so oil's price isn't considered for the measurement. This means prices of food and energy were higher than expectations while everything else did not move in price.

Data From The EdgeFinder!
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US Oil, 4H Chart:

Keeping it simple! Strong jobs data + Chinese market rallying means an increased potential demand for oil.

EdgeFinder nailed this one

- Nick

The S&P is just a little off the all time highs after this news. A question looming in every investor's mind is whether or not the Fed took action too quickly. CPI obviously did not meet our expectations, but there are some things to consider.

CPI y/y did fall from last month, just not as much as we wanted it to (from 2.5% to 2.4%). Month-over-month stayed the same with Core unchanged as well. Core has been sticky all year, so any sort of rate cut seemed unnecessary, but everyone wanted it to relieve the labor market.
-Frank

The value play is still very much in tact according to the EdgeFinder. Although we are expecting less aggressive cuts going into the end of the year, blue chips are still in high demand. This is likely due to the overwhelming demand in dividend stocks in the past few weeks.

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Retail behavior is little changed since Monday: still short DOW, SPX. NASDAQ now mixed, gold mixed. Oil being the top bought asset could be bearish news for the price as it may be too early to suggest that a true reversal has come.

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SPX500 is getting bought by COT and heavily shorted by retail. Smart money may be piling more into stocks because there is not a better option than equities for the time being. As yields decline, there is not a lot of opportunity in the bond market going forward.

Gold Daily Chart:

Price action continues to look bullish, despite my concerns that fundamentally we may be nearing a top.

The reason I say that is because recent jobs data, economic reports (PMI) and CPI all contributed to a stronger US dollar, which I think could continue.

This recent continuation for gold to the upside was helped by the cooler print for PPI on Thursday, as well as election and middle east uncertainty.

I am neutral on gold for now. Watching it close. Any trades I take will be shared in our signals room. Come join us before the week starts! (Use TGVIP for a discount)

- Nick