Value stocks are getting the most attention now that rates are lower and jobs are steady. This is likely due to the falling yields in interest for bonds that are driving more demand for stocks that yield their own dividends.
There is a good divergence between retail and COT data that suggests higher prices in the future. The put/call ratio shows more of a neutral reading in October's bullish seasonality. Overall, stocks with the highest potential in this environment seem to be the DOW stocks.
-Frank
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There is a good divergence between retail and COT data that suggests higher prices in the future. The put/call ratio shows more of a neutral reading in October's bullish seasonality. Overall, stocks with the highest potential in this environment seem to be the DOW stocks.
-Frank
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Gold turns lower on the expectation of softer rate cuts. We may end up getting to see the metal touch the previous all time highs around $2,600 as a result. Gold was retracing before the news in the Middle East drove demand back into price action.
We could see this retest happen if inflation comes in lower on Thursday. Expectations are already keying in on lower numbers. It seems that there is a better chance for prices to come down this week with good jobs data and the potentially lower inflation report.
-Frank
We could see this retest happen if inflation comes in lower on Thursday. Expectations are already keying in on lower numbers. It seems that there is a better chance for prices to come down this week with good jobs data and the potentially lower inflation report.
-Frank
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
$SMH 4H Chart:
Semiconductors continue to push higher, following NVIDIA's lead today!
Stops in place in case of a reversal.
- Nick
Semiconductors continue to push higher, following NVIDIA's lead today!
Stops in place in case of a reversal.
- Nick
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If we do get lower CPI this week, gold won't be the only asset affected by this miss. Oil prices have played a big role in where US inflation moved this year. Once we got a 20% drop in price in oil, CPI last month came in 0.4% lower.
So a lower report will bring the inflation score down on oil which could bring down the overall score as long as other metrics don't change positively. Oil inventories come out this Wednesday as well and will likely have an impact on the price. Higher inventories could move price lower.
-Frank
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So a lower report will bring the inflation score down on oil which could bring down the overall score as long as other metrics don't change positively. Oil inventories come out this Wednesday as well and will likely have an impact on the price. Higher inventories could move price lower.
-Frank
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Similar to last week, the only assets shorted by retail are global indices. Meanwhile, oil, RUSSELL, NIKKEI are among the top bought. Gold remains mixed with tech stocks.
-Frank
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-Frank
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COT positioning changed to reflect a more optimistic outlook on SPX and DOW. Gold saw slight selling, so did RUSSELL and NASDAQ. The dollar was sold along with treasury notes. The three most sold assets were JPY, EUR and CHF.
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With the majority of heavy news coming out late in the week, markets have not moved much. The only thing to drive us in a direction this morning are from the expectations of lower CPI. The Fed has clearly switched priorities over from inflation to labor. However, we don't know if cutting by 50 bps will bring inflation back up or not. Thursday's report and November's report will give us insight on inflation health.
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Gold Daily Chart: Uh oh...
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S&P 500
The S&P is still rangebound just above previous all time highs and $5,600. There is no real news coming out until later this week, so price action will probably stay within these boundaries until CPI, if CPI causes a major move. It’s probable to only see limited upside from the gains we already made in premarket, as well as limited downside.
-Frank
The S&P is still rangebound just above previous all time highs and $5,600. There is no real news coming out until later this week, so price action will probably stay within these boundaries until CPI, if CPI causes a major move. It’s probable to only see limited upside from the gains we already made in premarket, as well as limited downside.
-Frank
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USOil
Oil falls over 2% this morning after briefly testing the 200 DMA on the 1D timeframe. This is also happening while Chinese stocks abruptly tumble after less optimism on stimulus in the economy. News from Beijing told us that authorities will not be unveiling more stimulus into the economy which caused a 13% drop in price on the CHINA50 index.
-Frank
Oil falls over 2% this morning after briefly testing the 200 DMA on the 1D timeframe. This is also happening while Chinese stocks abruptly tumble after less optimism on stimulus in the economy. News from Beijing told us that authorities will not be unveiling more stimulus into the economy which caused a 13% drop in price on the CHINA50 index.
-Frank
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Gold
Gold at break even at the start of the day as investors try to interpret demand this week. This is the only metal that is mostly unfazed by the recent news in China as silver and other metals drop. The metal could still retrace on weakness in China, and the $2,600 support level could still be tested.
-Frank
Gold at break even at the start of the day as investors try to interpret demand this week. This is the only metal that is mostly unfazed by the recent news in China as silver and other metals drop. The metal could still retrace on weakness in China, and the $2,600 support level could still be tested.
-Frank
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Blue chips look the strongest on the EdgeFinder today. Nearing the all time highs again, price could test that level again today or tomorrow depending on the news. FOMC meeting minutes is today and will likely have no impact the stock sentiment. Tomorrow’s CPI will have an impact on price action. Higher CPI could be negative for market sentiment as it may suggest the Fed made a mistake in cutting too early. However, with oil prices down 15% from the summer highs, tomorrow’s CPI report may actually come in lower than last month.
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