Today’s price range is about 80 points so far as we opened up to a sell off. Good JOLTS news didn’t seem to impact the market too much as it might be overwhelmed with the Middle East tensions worsening today. It’s probably best to stay away from the indices today as we don’t know how much worse the situation can get.

-Frank

The VIX is up over 16% today on this news. It’s hard to say if this will blow over or continue. Should the market make a further drop, we could be looking at a VIX into the $20s by the end of the day. A sudden decline by the end of day could mean that there may be another opportunity for the SPX to move back up to the highs.

-Frank

Options positions update.

Most trades in the green 🙂

-Nick

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Frank's Stock Positions Update 🔥

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Despite any solid jobs data, we may be held in consolidation in the stock market. However, oil is the commodity to watch if tensions worsen in the Middle East as supply disruptions could bring prices higher. Price is down over 17% from the highs in April this year and fell as much as 25% this year.

The EdgeFinder does not have a clear reading on oil's direction yet as the commodity has not confirmed a sign of reversal yet, but healthy economic data can lift its score. If we see higher NFP tomorrow and higher CPI next week, it could be an ideal setup for oil.
-Frank

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Stocks Decline on Higher Jobless Claims
The SPX struggles to move higher on the day despite a bullish hammer candle on the 1D timeframe. Unemployment claims came in higher than expected which sends some doubt to a beat in NFP tomorrow. Even though the first two metrics this week looked solid, a beat tomorrow is still up in the air.

Something that is perhaps more important to watch on NFP releases are the revisions. Traders will need to watch what the previous number is revised to to make sure we are getting an accurate picture of where labor data is actually trending.
-Frank

USD is Bearish
The EdgeFinder has been printing majority bearish scores on the dollar as USDJPY remains in the bearish camp while GU, NU, AU are among the strongest bullish scores. The dollar continues to make recovery attempts that end up not moving too much to the upside.

We are in a very uncertain market again in which sentiment hinges on more economic data to help investors feel justified to be near all time highs on the stock market. We know one thing is certain, however. The dollar will likely decline in value over time due to further projected interest rate cuts. The question is how aggressive will the Fed be on loosening monetary policy for the remainder of this year.

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Now global indices seem to be in the bearish camp for retail traders. DAX, SPX, UK100 and DOW are the only shorted assets on the list. Meanwhile, oil is the most bought pair from the crowd along with NASDAQ, RUSSELL and NIKKEI.

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Gold saw a massive increase in retail bullishness while COT stays heavy bullish. There could be signs that the metal has topped out in price. If you noticed at the beginning of the week, price was correcting. But Tuesday's news in the Middle East brought back a surge in gold demand. If the conflict starts to dwindle, we may see gold retrace to support.

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What may be the most important thing to watch for tomorrow is the yellow line on this chart. Despite wherever actual NFP ends up, we need to look at last month's revisions. See how the actual number reported was 114K, but the revisions corrected the right number to be 89K. If September is revised lower than 142K tomorrow, we could be looking at a bearish move lower.

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Not only did NFP beat, but revisions came in higher as well. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, so today may be a positive day in the markets. Will probably look to sell bull put spreads if we come down a bit.
- Frank

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DXY Daily Chart:

A key breakout seems to be forming on the US dollar today. Breaking through resistance, and moving quickly to the next one!

With very strong jobs data, solid services PMI data, and jolts job openings?

USD looks good...

- Nick