Bitcoin Weekly Chart:

Looking like bitcoin wants to breakout... will we see the run to 100,000...?

Note: bitcoin is a risk asset. It's essentially a leveraged version of the nasdaq, and will likely only rally if stocks continue to push higher. I am curious to see how price action reacts up here...

- Nick

Retail is heavily long oil which is not a good sign for bullish sentiment. Retail could be too early on an oil reversal, so lower prices could happen in the near future. Metals are also long by retail which is also concerning. Most US indices are long or mixed while dollar is getting shorted.

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Sentiment on oil is choppy for retail and looks to be steadily declining from COT. After supply news in the Middle East, smart money may continue to loosen their positions on this commodity for the time being.

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GDP met expectations this morning which is what the market wanted to see. The only area of the economy at risk right now could be the jobs market which has been on a steady cooldown since the start of interest rate hikes. As long as nothing else seems to be in trouble, demand for stocks may remain higher.

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The dollar is up on Monday morning despite the overall bearish sentiment from the EdgeFinder. However, this pair is down over 6% from the July highs due to a looser monetary policy in the US. SNB did cut their rates by 25 bps, but the Fed took a more aggressive approach.

The global easing of interest rates is helping boost risk sentiment and will likely continue to do so in Q4. Risk appetite in does depend on the economic health in the US. So NFP needs to come in steady to make sure nothing is fundamentally breaking.

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The reason not to chase price is exemplified today as gold drops 1% at the start of the day. There is not much of a bear case for the metal and a pullback looks like it could set the buyers up for another opportunity.

Support lies around $2,600 should we get another 1% drop. This could happen if we get strong jobs data. In the short term, gold does not react positively to good economic numbers. If this week could be bearish for the metal, it would seem like a bullish setup for another bounce.

There are no bullish indices on the EdgeFinder anymore. The strongest score is a +2 on the RUSSELL which may outperform the other indices due to its rate sensitive nature. Smart money went heavy long last week although retail is majority bullish.

The put/call ratio is increasingly more bullish from traders today as they might be betting on more all time highs this week.

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-Frank

Gold continues to push higher after the small pullback on the 1D timeframe. We had JOLTS come out at 10 am EST which was higher than expected. However, this reaction was muted my other news. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has also brought a lot of uncertainty in the markets.

-Frank

Today’s price range is about 80 points so far as we opened up to a sell off. Good JOLTS news didn’t seem to impact the market too much as it might be overwhelmed with the Middle East tensions worsening today. It’s probably best to stay away from the indices today as we don’t know how much worse the situation can get.

-Frank

The VIX is up over 16% today on this news. It’s hard to say if this will blow over or continue. Should the market make a further drop, we could be looking at a VIX into the $20s by the end of the day. A sudden decline by the end of day could mean that there may be another opportunity for the SPX to move back up to the highs.

-Frank

Options positions update.

Most trades in the green 🙂

-Nick

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Frank's Stock Positions Update 🔥

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Despite any solid jobs data, we may be held in consolidation in the stock market. However, oil is the commodity to watch if tensions worsen in the Middle East as supply disruptions could bring prices higher. Price is down over 17% from the highs in April this year and fell as much as 25% this year.

The EdgeFinder does not have a clear reading on oil's direction yet as the commodity has not confirmed a sign of reversal yet, but healthy economic data can lift its score. If we see higher NFP tomorrow and higher CPI next week, it could be an ideal setup for oil.
-Frank

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