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Despite the aggressive recovery from September lows, tech stocks are still not a strong bullish reading on the EdgeFinder. This is mainly due to the index's fundamental and seasonal scores keeping NASDAQ from getting a more favorable bias.

Today's GDP numbers came in as expected at 3% paired with the demand in Chinese business on the rise. This could be enough fuel to push the market higher in the short term, but we should be cautious of how euphoric the market could get.

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It's another bad day for oil as Saudi Arabia plans to increase production in the near future. Libya is also planning to do the same, so concerns of rapid supply increases on the current lower demand from China could cause a price decrease.

However, China's plan to increase demand in oil and their economy is already underway as they cut interest rates and provided stimulus to the economy.

Consumer defensive stocks are mostly down today which could be due to the good economic data today on GDP. Typically good news is good for stocks in general, but there might be some profit taking at the highs for Walmart as the risk appetite grows for momentum and tech stocks. In any case, structure has not broken on WMT with support a little lower around $77.80 as price has been trading between $70 and $80 mostly for the past month.

Although price has increased substantially this month, the EdgeFinder is still not favoring this asset to the upside right now. This is also due to seasonality bias, retail positioning being majority long, and COT doing a heavy sell last week.

This is why I think it's best not to chase price since gold may come down at some point which could make a good buying opportunity.

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Bitcoin Weekly Chart:

Looking like bitcoin wants to breakout... will we see the run to 100,000...?

Note: bitcoin is a risk asset. It's essentially a leveraged version of the nasdaq, and will likely only rally if stocks continue to push higher. I am curious to see how price action reacts up here...

- Nick

Retail is heavily long oil which is not a good sign for bullish sentiment. Retail could be too early on an oil reversal, so lower prices could happen in the near future. Metals are also long by retail which is also concerning. Most US indices are long or mixed while dollar is getting shorted.

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Sentiment on oil is choppy for retail and looks to be steadily declining from COT. After supply news in the Middle East, smart money may continue to loosen their positions on this commodity for the time being.

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GDP met expectations this morning which is what the market wanted to see. The only area of the economy at risk right now could be the jobs market which has been on a steady cooldown since the start of interest rate hikes. As long as nothing else seems to be in trouble, demand for stocks may remain higher.

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The dollar is up on Monday morning despite the overall bearish sentiment from the EdgeFinder. However, this pair is down over 6% from the July highs due to a looser monetary policy in the US. SNB did cut their rates by 25 bps, but the Fed took a more aggressive approach.

The global easing of interest rates is helping boost risk sentiment and will likely continue to do so in Q4. Risk appetite in does depend on the economic health in the US. So NFP needs to come in steady to make sure nothing is fundamentally breaking.

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The reason not to chase price is exemplified today as gold drops 1% at the start of the day. There is not much of a bear case for the metal and a pullback looks like it could set the buyers up for another opportunity.

Support lies around $2,600 should we get another 1% drop. This could happen if we get strong jobs data. In the short term, gold does not react positively to good economic numbers. If this week could be bearish for the metal, it would seem like a bullish setup for another bounce.

There are no bullish indices on the EdgeFinder anymore. The strongest score is a +2 on the RUSSELL which may outperform the other indices due to its rate sensitive nature. Smart money went heavy long last week although retail is majority bullish.

The put/call ratio is increasingly more bullish from traders today as they might be betting on more all time highs this week.

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Hey everyone, we apologize for the errors that occurred overnight on the EdgeFinder. The issues have been fixed and the top setups page is working again. Sorry if I do not get to your emails as we have received a mass of messages about this, but the page is back working again. Thanks for your patience.

-Frank

Gold continues to push higher after the small pullback on the 1D timeframe. We had JOLTS come out at 10 am EST which was higher than expected. However, this reaction was muted my other news. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has also brought a lot of uncertainty in the markets.

-Frank

Today’s price range is about 80 points so far as we opened up to a sell off. Good JOLTS news didn’t seem to impact the market too much as it might be overwhelmed with the Middle East tensions worsening today. It’s probably best to stay away from the indices today as we don’t know how much worse the situation can get.

-Frank

The VIX is up over 16% today on this news. It’s hard to say if this will blow over or continue. Should the market make a further drop, we could be looking at a VIX into the $20s by the end of the day. A sudden decline by the end of day could mean that there may be another opportunity for the SPX to move back up to the highs.

-Frank

Options positions update.

Most trades in the green 🙂

-Nick