Retail is getting long the dollar and short SPX. Meanwhile, RUSSELL, gold, NAS, DOW and USOil are majority long from retail investors.

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Silver, daily chart.

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The S&P hits another all time high this morning. Since we are at the highest point in the index, it’s hard to give price a target for the coming week. Upside will probably be limited at these levels with little news coming out today. Support lies around $5,675 which is only about a 1% decline from the highs.

Chinese stocks are up big today after PBOC cut rates and added stimulus to the economy. Analysts had expected multiple 10 bps cuts from the bank of China, so a 20 bps cut was greater than expected which prompted higher stock prices today. BIDU is up over 6% today, breaking out of its multi-month slump along with many other stocks.

This rise in demand is not only good news for China, but business in the US as well. US stocks rose, especially chip stocks. NVDA is up 4.3% at the time of writing this as claims of high demand for chips seems to be coming to fruition. The global loosening of monetary policy (except Japan) seems to be causing a flood into the stock market for now. BIDU and it's counterparts may see further upside after this big breakout above $90.

Unlike retail, smart money is shorting dollar. They are also short SPX, NAS and RUSSELL this week. The dollar saw nearly a 20% decline in long sentiment in one week. Yen saw less bullish behavior while the Nikkei was heavily bought. It could be that investors are expecting a heavier rebound in the Japanese stock market than they are in the US market.

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The UJ pair has recovered some from the lows earlier this month. It seems that FOMC might have saved this pair from further unwinding for the time being although the dollar is down slightly from last Tuesday. Price is up against some resistance, however. Today could show us whether the pair is going to move further to the downside or breakout above.

One major focus this week are the GDP numbers set to come out Thursday morning. Expectations are that GDP will rise by 0.1% to 2.9% this month. A slight rise in GDP could indicate that the economy is not doing poorly and nothing is really breaking. However, a lower GDP number could have the opposite effect.

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Crude oil inventories drop substantially by -4.5 million barrels as opposed to its forecast of -1.3 million. This has caused a negative reaction to oil's price today although a lower supply tends to have a positive impact on demand and price. Although it is not a harsh drop in price, we should be mindful of another retest on the lows. If price continues to slip, it could be a bad sign for the US economy. Price may still recover if we don't break these lows, with a potential test around $72-73 again.

Silver 4H Chart:

We're seeing price take out the highs again today! Let's see if we can hold these gains into this morning's unemployment claims + US GDP numbers.

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Despite the aggressive recovery from September lows, tech stocks are still not a strong bullish reading on the EdgeFinder. This is mainly due to the index's fundamental and seasonal scores keeping NASDAQ from getting a more favorable bias.

Today's GDP numbers came in as expected at 3% paired with the demand in Chinese business on the rise. This could be enough fuel to push the market higher in the short term, but we should be cautious of how euphoric the market could get.

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It's another bad day for oil as Saudi Arabia plans to increase production in the near future. Libya is also planning to do the same, so concerns of rapid supply increases on the current lower demand from China could cause a price decrease.

However, China's plan to increase demand in oil and their economy is already underway as they cut interest rates and provided stimulus to the economy.

Consumer defensive stocks are mostly down today which could be due to the good economic data today on GDP. Typically good news is good for stocks in general, but there might be some profit taking at the highs for Walmart as the risk appetite grows for momentum and tech stocks. In any case, structure has not broken on WMT with support a little lower around $77.80 as price has been trading between $70 and $80 mostly for the past month.