New interest rate projections came out suggesting that the dollar's rate will be as low as 4% by Q2 of next year. Going from 5.5% to 4% is a 150 basis point drop in 6 months.


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The Dow Jones hit another all time high this morning at market open indicating the potential for blue chip stocks that yield dividends. The act of a 50 bps cut does not necessarily mean a healthy economy/stock market, but it does almost force investors out of the risk-off trades in bonds.

Since yields are dropping, stocks may be the play going forward. Despite how overvalued they are, euphoria can last a while in the equities market. COT shows a large bullish change from last week's positional sentiment. AAII increased a little as well.

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Gold has been on a tear all year in light of the recent rate cut forecasts and finally the decision last week. It's hard to chase the highs here, so any pullback to these levels on the 1D timeframe seem like they could be good long opportunities.

It's a matter of if prices come down enough. It's never a good idea to chase the highs even though the trend for gold will likely continue in the upward direction.

I wanted to share this chart from the EdgeFinder. I find it to be a very simple overview / summary of economic data in the USA.

Keep it really simple: we've got 4 red and 4 blue readings.

Economy is not too weak, not too strong = neutral on stocks.

If we start to see a big change (more blue, or more red), watchout!

- Nick

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Demand for chip stocks have been increasingly high according to analysts on Wall Street and the tech giant's CEO, Jensen Huang (CEO of NVDIA). A lot of the S&P's and NASDAQ's run has been carried on the back of momentum stocks, NVDA in particular. If the AI trade continues, the stock market will likely remain propped higher.

This stock needs to move out of this consolidation zone to keep carrying these indices higher. Although SPX can continue to float higher, it will likely not be much of a move without the tech giants grabbing more demand from the risk on trade.

Gold’s uptrend has price overextended in the short term, so the metal may look to retrace back down to levels of support. $2,600 looks like the first level of support price may come down to test if we get a retracement. There are some arguments out there that silver will outperform gold, and gold is already up 28% this year. Price may be looking to test $2,700 in the next few quarters, but if the uptrend continues at this rate, it could hit that target soon.

Retail is getting long the dollar and short SPX. Meanwhile, RUSSELL, gold, NAS, DOW and USOil are majority long from retail investors.

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Silver, daily chart.

Trade taken in VIP!

Keep it simple ✍️📈

- Nick

Chat now to join us: https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80

The S&P hits another all time high this morning. Since we are at the highest point in the index, it’s hard to give price a target for the coming week. Upside will probably be limited at these levels with little news coming out today. Support lies around $5,675 which is only about a 1% decline from the highs.

Chinese stocks are up big today after PBOC cut rates and added stimulus to the economy. Analysts had expected multiple 10 bps cuts from the bank of China, so a 20 bps cut was greater than expected which prompted higher stock prices today. BIDU is up over 6% today, breaking out of its multi-month slump along with many other stocks.

This rise in demand is not only good news for China, but business in the US as well. US stocks rose, especially chip stocks. NVDA is up 4.3% at the time of writing this as claims of high demand for chips seems to be coming to fruition. The global loosening of monetary policy (except Japan) seems to be causing a flood into the stock market for now. BIDU and it's counterparts may see further upside after this big breakout above $90.

Unlike retail, smart money is shorting dollar. They are also short SPX, NAS and RUSSELL this week. The dollar saw nearly a 20% decline in long sentiment in one week. Yen saw less bullish behavior while the Nikkei was heavily bought. It could be that investors are expecting a heavier rebound in the Japanese stock market than they are in the US market.

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The UJ pair has recovered some from the lows earlier this month. It seems that FOMC might have saved this pair from further unwinding for the time being although the dollar is down slightly from last Tuesday. Price is up against some resistance, however. Today could show us whether the pair is going to move further to the downside or breakout above.

One major focus this week are the GDP numbers set to come out Thursday morning. Expectations are that GDP will rise by 0.1% to 2.9% this month. A slight rise in GDP could indicate that the economy is not doing poorly and nothing is really breaking. However, a lower GDP number could have the opposite effect.

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